Absolute risk of breast cancer for Australian women with a family history

Background: The purpose of the present paper was to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer over the remainder of a lifetime in Australian women with different categories of family history. Methods: Age-specific breast cancer incidence rates were adjusted for screening effects, and rates in those with no family history were estimated using the attributable fraction (AF). Relative risks from a published meta-analysis were applied to obtain incidence rates for different categories of family history, and age-specific incidence was converted to cumulative risk of breast cancer. The risk estimates were based upon Australian population statistics and published relative risks. Breast cancer incidence was from New South Wales women for 1996. The AF was calculated using prevalence of a family history of breast cancer from data on Queensland women. The cumulative absolute risk of breast cancer was calculated from decade and mid-decade ages to age 79 years, not adjusted for competing causes of death. Results: Lifetime risk is approximately 8.6% (1 in 12) for the general population and 7.8% (1 in 13) for those without a family history. Women with one relative affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 6-8 and those with two relatives affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 4-6. The cumulative residual lifetime risk decreases with advancing age; by age 60 years all groups with only one relative affected have well above a 90% probability of not developing breast cancer to age 79 years. Conclusions: These Australian risk statistics are useful for public information and in the clinical setting. Risks given here apply to women with average breast cancer risk from other risk factors.

Modelling life history strategies with capture-recapture data: Evolutionary demography of the water skink Eulamprus tympanum

Matrix population models, elasticity analysis and loop analysis can potentially provide powerful techniques for the analysis of life histories. Data from a capture-recapture study on a population of southern highland water skinks (Eulamprus tympanum) were used to construct a matrix population model. Errors in elasticities were calculated by using the parametric bootstrap technique. Elasticity and loop analyses were then conducted to identify the life history stages most important to fitness. The same techniques were used to investigate the relative importance of fast versus slow growth, and rapid versus delayed reproduction. Mature water skinks were long-lived, but there was high immature mortality. The most sensitive life history stage was the subadult stage. It is suggested that life history evolution in E. tympanum may be strongly affected by predation, particularly by birds. Because our population declined over the study, slow growth and delayed reproduction were the optimal life history strategies over this period. Although the techniques of evolutionary demography provide a powerful approach for the analysis of life histories, there are formidable logistical obstacles in gathering enough high-quality data for robust estimates of the critical parameters.

MHCWeb: Converting a WWW database into a knowledge-based collaborative environment

The World Wide Web (WWW) is useful for distributing scientific data. Most existing web data resources organize their information either in structured flat files or relational databases with basic retrieval capabilities. For databases with one or a few simple relations, these approaches are successful, but they can be cumbersome when there is a data model involving multiple relations between complex data. We believe that knowledge-based resources offer a solution in these cases. Knowledge bases have explicit declarations of the concepts in the domain, along with the relations between them. They are usually organized hierarchically, and provide a global data model with a controlled vocabulary, We have created the OWEB architecture for building online scientific data resources using knowledge bases. OWEB provides a shell for structuring data, providing secure and shared access, and creating computational modules for processing and displaying data. In this paper, we describe the translation of the online immunological database MHCPEP into an OWEB system called MHCWeb. This effort involved building a conceptual model for the data, creating a controlled terminology for the legal values for different types of data, and then translating the original data into the new structure. The 0 WEB environment allows for flexible access to the data by both users and computer programs.

Sperm environment affects offspring quality in broadcast spawning marine invertebrates

The provisioning of offspring can have far-reaching consequences for later life in a wide range of organisms and generally this provisioning is thought to be under maternal influence or control. In experiments with a broadcast-spawning ascidian, we found that the size of offspring was determined by egg size and the abundance of sperm present during fertilization. Larger eggs were fertilized at low sperm concentrations, whilst smaller eggs were successfully fertilized at high sperm concentrations. These differences in fertilized egg size resulted in differences in the development rate, hatching success and mean size of the subsequent larvae. Our results suggest that, in contrast to females that reproduce by other mating systems, free-spawning mothers lack some control over the provisioning of offspring. Furthermore, because males can alter the sperm environment, they can exert paternal (non-genetic) control over key offspring characteristics.

Developing a reliable audit instrument to measure the physical environment for physical activity

Background: The physical environment plays an important role in influencing participation in physical activity, although which factors of the physical environment have the greatest effect on patterns of activity remain to be determined. We describe the development of a comprehensive instrument to measure the physical environmental factors that may influence walking and cycling in local neighborhoods and report on its reliability. Methods: Following consultation with experts from a variety of fields and a literature search, we developed a Systematic Pedestrian and Cycling Environmental Scan (SPACES) instrument and used it to collect data over a total of 1987 kilometers of roads in metropolitan Perth, Western Australia. The audit instrument is available from the first author on request. Additional environmental information was collected using desktop methods and geographic information systems (GIS) technology. We assessed inter- and intra-rater reliability of the instrument among the 16 observers who collected the data. Results: The observers reported that the audit instrument was easy to use. Both inter- and intra-rater reliability of the environmental scan instrument were generally high. Conclusions: Our instrument provides a reliable, practical, and easy to-use method for collecting detailed street-level data on physical environmental factors that are potential influences on walking in local neighborhoods.

Sources of variation in larval quality for free-spawning marine invertebrates: Egg size and the local sperm environment

There has been growing interest in the effects of variation in larval quality on the post-larval performance of adult marine invertebrates. Variation in egg/larval size is an obvious source of variation in larval quality but sources of variation have received little attention. For broadcast spawners, larval size may vary according to the local sperm environment but the generality of this result is unclear. Here, we show that, for a solitary ascidian, a polychaete and an echinoid, larval size is affected by the concentration of sperm present during fertilization. Larvae that are produced at high sperm concentrations are smaller than larvae that are produced from eggs exposed to low sperm concentrations. We also show that for three ascidians and an asteroid, egg size increases with maternal body size. These differences in larval size are likely to affect larval and subsequent adult performance in the field. Given that sperm concentrations in the field can fluctuate widely, it is likely that larval quality in free-spawning marine invertebrates will also vary widely.

Offspring size affects the post-metamorphic performance of a colonial marine invertebrate

The positive relationship between offspring size and offspring fitness is a fundamental assumption of life-history theory, but it has received relatively little attention in the marine environment. This is surprising given that substantial intraspecific variation in offspring size is common in marine organisms and there are clear links between larval experience and adult performance. The metamorphosis of most marine invertebrates does not represent a newbeginning, and larval experiences can have effects that carry over to juvenile survival and growth. We show that larval size can have equally important carryover effects in a colonial marine invertebrate. In the bryozoan Bugula neritina, the size of the non-feeding larvae has a prolonged effect on colony performance after metamorphosis. Colonies that came from larger larvae survived better, grew faster, and reproduced sooner or produced more embryos than colonies that came from smaller larvae. These effects crossed generations, with colonies from larger larvae themselves producing larger larvae. These effects were found in two populations (in Australia and in the United States) in contrasting habitats.