A hypothesis for explaining single outbreaks (like the Black Death in European cities) of vector-borne infections

We propose a mechanism by which single outbreaks of vector-borne infections can happen even when the value of the basic reproduction number, R(o), of the infection is below one. With this hypothesis we have shown that dynamical models simulations demonstrate that the arrival of a relatively small (with respect to the host population) number of infected vectors can trigger a short-lived epidemic but with a huge number of cases. These episodes are characterized by a sudden outbreak in a previously virgin area that last from weeks to a few months, and then disappear without leaving vestiges. The hypothesis proposed in this paper to explain those single outbreaks of vector-borne infections, even when total basic reproduction number, Ro, is less than one (which explain the fact that those infections fail to establish themselves at endemic levels), is that the vector-to-host component of Ro is greater than one and that a sufficient amount of infected vectors are imported to the vulnerable area, triggering the outbreak. We tested the hypothesis by performing numerical simulations that reproduce the observed outbreaks of chikungunya in Italy in 2007 and the plague in Florence in 1348. The theory proposed provides an explanation for isolated outbreaks of vector-borne infections, ways to calculate the size of those outbreaks from the number of infected vectors arriving in the affected areas. Given the ever-increasing worldwide transportation network, providing a high degree of mobility from endemic to virgin areas, the proposed mechanism may have important implications for public health planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Autopsy-Proven Determinants of Immediate Fire Death in Lungs

In immediate fire deaths, pulmonary injury may be the main source of mortality, being important to document the histologic findings for the purpose of excluding other modes of death, such as from asphyxia with no gross findings. In this context, a group of morphologic determinants have been targeted with useful makers of pulmonary injury. To facilitate the determination of whether an individual was deceased before the start of a fire and validate the importance of parenchymal alterations in pulmonary injury in fire deaths, we studied lungs in victims of fire (N = 28) and suffocation (N = 40), creating a mathematical model using cluster analysis. For this purpose, a semiquantitative analysis of the distal parenchyma was performed to evaluate the amount of bronchiolar dilatation, overinsufflation (ductal and alveolar), collapse (ductal and alveolar), passive congestion, alveolar edema, and hemorrhage (interstitial and alveolar). These 7 histologic determinants were useful to discriminate fire (bronchiolar dilatation, ductal overinsuflation, alveolar overinsuflation, alveolar hemorrhage) from suffocation lung injuries (alveolar collapse, congestion, and edema). We conclude that these determinants should be included in the routine of forensic pathology.

Immunophenotyping and remodeling process in small airways of idiopathic interstitial pneumonias: functional and prognostic significance

Background and Aims: To test whether different degrees of immunologic and fibrotic airway remodeling processes occur in idiopathic interstitial pneumonias (IIPs), with impact on functional tests and survival, we studied the collagen/elastic system and immune cell density in the bronchiolar interstitium of lungs with the major types of IIPs. Materials and Methods: Histochemistry, immunohistochemistry and morphometric analysis were used to evaluate collagen/elastic fibers and immune cells in the bronchiolar interstitium of open lung biopsies of patients with cryptogenic organizing pneumonia [COP/organizing pneumonia (OP) = 10], acute interstitial pneumonia [AIP/diffuse alveolar damage (DAD) = 20], nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP/NSIP = 20) and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis/usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) = 20. Results: OP lungs presented a significant increase in collagenous/elastic fibers and in the total density of immune cells in the bronchiolar interstitium compared to controls, DAD, NSIP and UIP. We observed a significant increase in CD4, CD8 and CD20 lymphocytes, as well as in neutrophils, macrophages and plasma cells in OP. The increased amount of elastic fibers in the bronchiolar interstitium from OP lungs has a direct association with forced vital capacity (FVC) (r(s) = 0.99, P = 0.03). The most important survival predictor was CD20+ lymphocytes in the bronchiolar interstitium. In decreasing order, patients with UIP [Odds Ratio (OR) = 35.01], high forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)/FVC FVC (OR = 7.01), increased CD20+ lymphocytes (OR = 4.44) and collagenous/elastic fiber densities (OR = 2.03 and OR = 1.49, respectively) in the bronchiolar interstitium were those who had the greatest risk of death, followed by those with AIP, NSIP and COP. Conclusion: Different degrees of immunologic and fibroelastotic airway remodeling processes occur in the major types of IIPs with impact on physiological tests and survival.

Arterial and interstitial remodelling processes in non-specific interstitial pneumonia: systemic sclerosis versus idiopathic

Aims: To compare septal and vascular matrix remodelling, vascular occlusion, Pulmonary function tests and survival between two groups: one with idiopathic non-specific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP) and one with NSIP associated with systemic sclerosis (SSc). Methods and results: Pulmonary biopsy specimens were examined from 40 patients, 22 with NSIP and 18 with NSIP associated with SSc. The content of septal collagen and elastic fibres, as well as the elastic fibres in the vascular interstitium, were higher in the SSc group (P = 0.01, P = 0.001 and P < 0.0001, respectively). Among pulmonary function tests. the diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide/alveolar volume was affected to a greater extent in the SSc group (59%) of the predicted value in SSc and 97% in the idiopathic group). There were no differences in collagen content of the vascular interstitium, arterial occlusion, or survival between the two groups. Conclusions: Although the fibrotic process is more intense in the SSc group. it, does not affect the prognosis of these patients. Because the elastotic process is higher in the SSc group, this might suggest that autoimmune inflammatory mechanisms affecting the elastic fibre system play a greater role in the pathogenesis and pulmonary remodelling process of SSc NSIP than in idiopathic NSIP.

Immunohistochemical evaluation of macrophage activity and its relationship with apoptotic cell death in the polar forms of leprosy

The objective of the present study was to investigate the correlation between macrophage activity and apoptosis in the polar forms of leprosy because the immunopathological phenomena involved in these forms are still poorly understood For this purpose, 29 skin biopsy samples obtained from patients with the polar forms of leprosy were analyzed. Macrophage activity and apoptosis were evaluated by immunohistochemistry using lysozyme, CD68, iNOS and caspase 3 as markers The nonparametric Mann-Whitney test and Spearman`s linear correlation test were used for statistical analysis The results suggest that the apoptosis rate is under the direct influence of macrophage activity in lesions of patients with the tuberculoid form In contrast, in lepromatous lesions other factors seem to induce programmed cell death, possibly TGF-beta. Further studies are necessary to identify additional factors involved in the immunopathogenesis of leprosy. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Myocardial Perfusion Imaging Is a Strong Predictor of Death in Women

OBJECTIVES We sought to assess the prognostic value and risk classification improvement using contemporary single-photon emission computed tomography myocardial perfusion imaging (SPECT-MPI) to predict all-cause mortality. BACKGROUND Myocardial perfusion is a strong estimator of prognosis. Evidence published to date has not established the added prognostic value of SPECT-MPI nor defined an approach to detect improve classification of risk in women from a developing nation. METHODS A total of 2,225 women referred for SPECT-MPI were followed by a mean period of 3.7 +/- 1.4 years. SPECT-MPI results were classified as abnormal on the presence of any perfusion defect. Abnormal scans were further classified as with mild/moderate reversible, severe reversible, partial reversible, or fixed perfusion defects. Risk estimates for incident mortality were categorized as <1%/year, 1% to 2%/year, and >2%/year using Cox proportional hazard models. Risk-adjusted models incorporated clinical risk factors, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and perfusion variables. RESULTS All-cause death occurred in 139 patients. SPECT-MPI significantly risk stratified the population; patients with abnormal scans had significantly higher death rates compared with patients with normal scans, 13.1% versus 4.0%, respectively (p < 0.001). Cox analysis demonstrated that after adjusting for clinical risk factors and LVEF, SPECT-MPI improved the model discrimination (integrated discrimination index = 0.009; p = 0.02), added significant incremental prognostic information (global chi-square increased from 87.7 to 127.1; p < 0.0001), and improved risk prediction (net reclassification improvement = 0.12; p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS SPECT-MPI added significant incremental prognostic information to clinical and left ventricular functional variables while enhancing the ability to classify this Brazilian female population into low-and high-risk categories of all-cause mortality. (J Am Coll Cardiol Img 2011;4:880-8) (C) 2011 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation

Effect of Femtosecond Laser Energy Level on Corneal Stromal Cell Death and Inflammation

PURPOSE: To analyze the effects of variations in femtosecond laser energy level on corneal stromal cell death. and inflammatory cell influx following flap creation in a rabbit model. METHODS: Eighteen rabbits were stratified in three different groups according to level of energy applied for flap creation (six animals per group). Three different energy levels were chosen for both the lamellar and side cut; 2.7 mu J (high energy), 1.6 mu J (intermediate energy), and 0.5 mu J (low energy) with a 60 kHz, model II, femtosecond laser (IntraLase). The opposite eye of each rabbit served as a control. At the 24-hour time point after surgery, all rabbits were euthanized and the comeoscleral rims were analyzed for the levels of cell death and inflammatory cell influx with the terminal uridine deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP-nick end labeling (TUNEL) assay and immunocytochemistry for monocyte marker CD11b, respectively. RESULTS: The high energy group (31.9 +/- 7.1 [standard error of mean (SEM) 2.9]) had significantly more TUNEL positive cells in the central flap compared to the intermediate (22.2 +/- 1.9 [SEM 0.8], P=.004), low (17.9 +/- 4.0 [SEM 1.6], P <= .001), and control eye (0.06 +/- 0.02 [SEM 0.009], P <= .001) groups. The intermediate and low energy groups also had significantly more TUNEL positive cells than the control groups (P <= .001). The difference between the intermediate and low energy levels was not significant (P=.56). The mean for CD11b-positive cells/400x field at the flap edge was 26.1 +/- 29.3 (SEM 11.9), 5.8 +/- 4.1 (SEM 1.6), 1.6 +/- 4.1 (SEM 1.6), and 0.005 +/- 0.01 (SEM 0.005) for high energy, intermediate energy, low energy, and control groups, respectively. Only the intermediate energy group showed statistically more inflammatory cells than control eyes (P = .015), most likely due to variability between eyes. CONCLUSIONS: Higher energy levels trigger greater cell death when the femtosecond laser is used to create corneal flaps: Greater corneal inflammatory cell infiltration is observed with higher femtosecond laser energy levels. [J Refract Surg. 2009;25:869-874.] doi:10.3928/1081597X-20090917-08