Essays on the Analysis of Dynamic Games

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Macro determinants of FDI inflows to Japan:an analysis of source country characteristics

This paper examines the source country determinants of FDI into Japan. The paper highlights certain methodological and theoretical weaknesses in the previous literature and offers some explanations for hitherto ambiguous results. Specifically, the paper highlights the importance of panel data analysis, and the identification of fixed effects in the analysis rather than simply pooling the data. Indeed, we argue that many of the results reported elsewhere are a feature of this mis-specification. To this end, pooled, fixed effects and random effects estimates are compared. The results suggest that FDI into Japan is inversely related to trade flows, such that trade and FDI are substitutes. Moreover, the results also suggest that FDI increases with home country political and economic stability. The paper also shows that previously reported results, regarding the importance of exchange rates, relative borrowing costs and labour costs in explaining FDI flows, are sensitive to the econometric specification and estimation approach. The paper also discusses the importance of these results within a policy context. In recent years Japan has sought to attract FDI, though many firms still complain of barriers to inward investment penetration in Japan. The results show that cultural and geographic distance are only of marginal importance in explaining FDI, and that the results are consistent with the market-seeking explanation of FDI. As such, the attitude to risk in the source country is strongly related to the size of FDI flows to Japan. © 2007 The Authors Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The psychology of news influence and development of Media Framing Analysis

HowHow precisely do media influence their readers, listeners and viewers? In this paper, we argue that any serious study of the psychology of media influence must incorporate a systematic analysis of media material. However, psychology presently lacks a methodology for doing this that is sensitive to context, relying on generalised methods like content or discourse analysis. In this paper, we develop an argument to support our development of a technique that we have called Media Framing Analysis (MFA), a formal procedure for conducting analyses of (primarily news) media texts. MFA draws on elements of existing framing research from communication and other social scientific research while at the same time incorporating features of particular relevance to psychology, such as narrative and characterisation.

Analysis of magnetoencephaoographic data as a nonlinear dynamical system

This thesis presents the results from an investigation into the merits of analysing Magnetoencephalographic (MEG) data in the context of dynamical systems theory. MEG is the study of both the methods for the measurement of minute magnetic flux variations at the scalp, resulting from neuro-electric activity in the neocortex, as well as the techniques required to process and extract useful information from these measurements. As a result of its unique mode of action - by directly measuring neuronal activity via the resulting magnetic field fluctuations - MEG possesses a number of useful qualities which could potentially make it a powerful addition to any brain researcher's arsenal. Unfortunately, MEG research has so far failed to fulfil its early promise, being hindered in its progress by a variety of factors. Conventionally, the analysis of MEG has been dominated by the search for activity in certain spectral bands - the so-called alpha, delta, beta, etc that are commonly referred to in both academic and lay publications. Other efforts have centred upon generating optimal fits of "equivalent current dipoles" that best explain the observed field distribution. Many of these approaches carry the implicit assumption that the dynamics which result in the observed time series are linear. This is despite a variety of reasons which suggest that nonlinearity might be present in MEG recordings. By using methods that allow for nonlinear dynamics, the research described in this thesis avoids these restrictive linearity assumptions. A crucial concept underpinning this project is the belief that MEG recordings are mere observations of the evolution of the true underlying state, which is unobservable and is assumed to reflect some abstract brain cognitive state. Further, we maintain that it is unreasonable to expect these processes to be adequately described in the traditional way: as a linear sum of a large number of frequency generators. One of the main objectives of this thesis will be to prove that much more effective and powerful analysis of MEG can be achieved if one were to assume the presence of both linear and nonlinear characteristics from the outset. Our position is that the combined action of a relatively small number of these generators, coupled with external and dynamic noise sources, is more than sufficient to account for the complexity observed in the MEG recordings. Another problem that has plagued MEG researchers is the extremely low signal to noise ratios that are obtained. As the magnetic flux variations resulting from actual cortical processes can be extremely minute, the measuring devices used in MEG are, necessarily, extremely sensitive. The unfortunate side-effect of this is that even commonplace phenomena such as the earth's geomagnetic field can easily swamp signals of interest. This problem is commonly addressed by averaging over a large number of recordings. However, this has a number of notable drawbacks. In particular, it is difficult to synchronise high frequency activity which might be of interest, and often these signals will be cancelled out by the averaging process. Other problems that have been encountered are high costs and low portability of state-of-the- art multichannel machines. The result of this is that the use of MEG has, hitherto, been restricted to large institutions which are able to afford the high costs associated with the procurement and maintenance of these machines. In this project, we seek to address these issues by working almost exclusively with single channel, unaveraged MEG data. We demonstrate the applicability of a variety of methods originating from the fields of signal processing, dynamical systems, information theory and neural networks, to the analysis of MEG data. It is noteworthy that while modern signal processing tools such as independent component analysis, topographic maps and latent variable modelling have enjoyed extensive success in a variety of research areas from financial time series modelling to the analysis of sun spot activity, their use in MEG analysis has thus far been extremely limited. It is hoped that this work will help to remedy this oversight.

New oil modified acrylic polymer for pH sensitive drug release:experimental results and statistical analysis

We report results of an experimental study, complemented by detailed statistical analysis of the experimental data, on the development of a more effective control method of drug delivery using a pH sensitive acrylic polymer. New copolymers based on acrylic acid and fatty acid are constructed from dodecyl castor oil and a tercopolymer based on methyl methacrylate, acrylic acid and acryl amide were prepared using this new approach. Water swelling characteristics of fatty acid, acrylic acid copolymer and tercopolymer respectively in acid and alkali solutions have been studied by a step-change method. The antibiotic drug cephalosporin and paracetamol have also been incorporated into the polymer blend through dissolution with the release of the antibiotic drug being evaluated in bacterial stain media and buffer solution. Our results show that the rate of release of paracetamol getss affected by the pH factor and also by the nature of polymer blend. Our experimental data have later been statistically analyzed to quantify the precise nature of polymer decay rates on the pH density of the relevant polymer solvents. The time evolution of the polymer decay rates indicate a marked transition from a linear to a strictly non-linear regime depending on the whether the chosen sample is a general copolymer (linear) or a tercopolymer (non-linear). Non-linear data extrapolation techniques have been used to make probabilistic predictions about the variation in weight percentages of retained polymers at all future times, thereby quantifying the degree of efficacy of the new method of drug delivery.

Incorporating Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) practices into the planning context:the conceptual case for lot-scale developments

In recent decades, a number of sustainable strategies and polices have been created to protect and preserve our water environments from the impacts of growing communities. The Australian approach, Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD), defined as the integration of urban planning and design with the urban water cycle management, has made considerable advances on design guidelines since 2000. WSUD stormwater management systems (e.g. wetlands, bioretentions, porous pavement etc), also known as Best Management Practices (BMPs) or Low Impact Development (LID), are slowly gaining popularity across Australia, the USA and Europe. There have also been significant improvements in how to model the performance of the WSUD technologies (e.g. MUSIC software). However, the implementation issues of these WSUD practices are mainly related to ongoing institutional capacity. Some of the key problems are associated with a limited awareness of urban planners and designers; in general, they have very little knowledge of these systems and their benefits to the urban environments. At the same time, hydrological engineers should have a better understanding of building codes and master plans. The land use regulations are equally as important as the physical site conditions for determining opportunities and constraints for implementing WSUD techniques. There is a need for procedures that can make a better linkage between urban planners and WSUD engineering practices. Thus, this paper aims to present the development of a general framework for incorporating WSUD technologies into the site planning process. The study was applied to lot-scale in the Melbourne region, Australia. Results show the potential space available for fitting WSUD elements, according to building requirements and different types of housing densities. © 2011 WIT Press.

Making a difference:critical linguistic analysis in a legal context

One of the major problems for Critical Discourse Analysts is how to move on from their insightful critical analyses to successfully 'acting on the world in order to transform it'. This paper discusses, with detailed exemplification, some of the areas where linguists have moved beyond description to acting on and changing the world. Examples from three murder trials show how essential it is, in order to protect the rights of witnesses and defendants, to have audio records of significant interviews with police officers. The article moves on to discuss the potentially serious consequences of the many communicative problems inherent in legal/lay interaction and illustrates a few of the linguist-led improvements to important texts. Finally, the article turns to the problems of using linguistic data to try to determine the geographical origin of asylum seekers. The intention of the article is to act as a call to arms to linguists; it concludes with the observation that 'innumerable mountains remain for those with a critical linguistic perspective who would like to try to move one'. © 2011 John Benjamins Publishing Company.

Advanced predictive-analysis-based decision support for collaborative logistics networks

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine challenges and potential of big data in heterogeneous business networks and relate these to an implemented logistics solution. Design/methodology/approach – The paper establishes an overview of challenges and opportunities of current significance in the area of big data, specifically in the context of transparency and processes in heterogeneous enterprise networks. Within this context, the paper presents how existing components and purpose-driven research were combined for a solution implemented in a nationwide network for less-than-truckload consignments. Findings – Aside from providing an extended overview of today’s big data situation, the findings have shown that technical means and methods available today can comprise a feasible process transparency solution in a large heterogeneous network where legacy practices, reporting lags and incomplete data exist, yet processes are sensitive to inadequate policy changes. Practical implications – The means introduced in the paper were found to be of utility value in improving process efficiency, transparency and planning in logistics networks. The particular system design choices in the presented solution allow an incremental introduction or evolution of resource handling practices, incorporating existing fragmentary, unstructured or tacit knowledge of experienced personnel into the theoretically founded overall concept. Originality/value – The paper extends previous high-level view on the potential of big data, and presents new applied research and development results in a logistics application.

Conclusion : on multiple levels of analysis, context, contingency and capital

In this concluding chapter, we bring together the threads and reflections on the chapters contained in this text and show how they relate to multi-level issues. The book has focused on the world of Human Resource Management (HRM) and the systems and practices it must put in place to foster innovation. Many of the contributions argue that in order to bring innovation about, organisations have to think carefully about the way in which they will integrate what is, in practice, organisationally relevant — but socially distributed — knowledge. They need to build a series of knowledge-intensive activities and networks, both within their own boundaries and across other important external inter-relationships. In so doing, they help to co-ordinate important information structures. They have, in effect, to find ways of enabling people to collaborate with each other at lower cost, by reducing both the costs of their co-ordination and the levels of unproductive search activity. They have to engineer these behaviours by reducing the risks for people that might be associated with incorrect ideas and help individuals, teams and business units to advance incomplete ideas that are so often difficult to codify. In short, a range of intangible assets must flow more rapidly throughout the organisation and an appropriate balance must be found between the rewards and incentives associated with creativity, novelty and innovation, versus the risks that innovation may also bring.

Toward understanding the study experience of culturally sensitive graduate students in *American distance education programs

The purpose of this research was to gain an understanding of the study experience of non-American graduate students living outside of the United States and formally engaged in graduate studies in an American Distance Education (DE) Program. These students have been labeled “culturally sensitive.” The nature of this study dictated a qualitative case study methodology using in-depth interviews to collect the data and the hermeneutic approach to understanding and description. This study aims at generating questions and hypotheses that will lead to further investigations that explore the need for cultural and contextual sensitivity in order to provide more equitable and accessible higher education for all. ^ The study attempted to answer the question: What is the study experience of “culturally sensitive” graduate students in American DE Programs? The underlying issue in this study is whether education designed and provided by educators of different socio-cultural backgrounds from that of the students could be content relevant and instructionally appropriate, resulting in educational enhancement and/or prepare students to function adequately in their own communities. ^ Participants in this study (n = 12) were engaged in Master's level (n = 2) and Doctoral level (n = 10) DE programs at American Universities, and were interviewed by E-mail, face-to-face, or using a combination of the two. Data analysis compared interviews and highlighted repetitive patterns. Interview data was triangulated with recent related literature and data from document reviews of archived E-mail conversations between students and their professors. The patterns that emerged were coded and categorized according to generative themes. The following themes were identified in order to analyze the data and confirmed through participant check-back: program benefits, communication, technology, culture and methodology, and reflectivity. ^ Major findings in this study indicate that culture plays an important role in cross-cultural encounters for students in American DE programs vis-à-vis student perceptions as to whether their study needs were being met. Most notably, it was found that the coupling of cultural perceptual differences with transactional distance created a potential barrier to communication that could affect short-term success in American DE programs. To overcome this barrier, students cited good communication as essential in meeting student's needs, especially those communications that were supportive and full of detail and context and from a primary source (ex. directly from the professor). Evaluation was a particularly sensitive issue, especially when students were unaware of their professor's cultural and contextual intricacies and therefore were uncertain about expectations and intended meaning. CSGS were aware of their position and the American rather than global context in which they were participating. Students appear to have developed “extended identities”, meaning that they acculturated in varying degrees in order to be successful in their program but that their local cultural identity was not compromised in any way. For participants from Venezuela access to higher DE has been a limiting factor to participation, due to the high cost of technology and telephone lines for communication. ^

Environmental analysis of polar herbicides in complex organic-rich matrices by high performance liquid chromatography atmospheric pressure ionization mass spectrometry (HPLC-API-MS)

A comprehensive forensic investigation of sensitive ecosystems in the Everglades Area is presented. Assessing the background levels of contamination in these ecosystems represents a vital resource to build up forensic evidence required to enforce future environmental crimes within the studied areas. This investigation presents the development and validation of a fractionation and isolation method for two families of herbicides commonly applied in the vicinity of the study area, including phenoxy acids like 2,4-D, MCPA, and silvex; as well as the most common triazine-based herbicides like atrazine, prometyne, simazine and related metabolites like DIA and DEA. Accelerated solvent extraction (ASE) and solid phase extraction (SPE) were used to isolate the analytes from abiotic matrices containing large amounts of organic material. Atmospheric-pressure ionization (API) with electrospray ionization in negative mode (ESP-), and Chemical Ionization in the positive mode (APCI+) were used to perform the characterization of the herbicides of interest.

Data compilation on the biological response to ocean acidification: environmental and experimental context of data sets and related literature

The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

Mellow Parenting : systematic review and meta-analysis of an intervention to promote sensitive parenting

Acknowledgements For part of the preparation period for this article, AM was supported by an NHS Research Scotland Career Research Fellowship. AM, LT, and PW have been involved in previous research into Mellow Parenting as well as other parenting programmes and have collaborated with the Mellow Parenting charity. PW has had travel and subsistence expenses reimbursed for attendance at a Mellow Parenting conference; otherwise the authors have not received financial recompense for any of these activities. We thank the Mellow Parenting charity for their advice about conducting this review.

Mellow Parenting : systematic review and meta-analysis of an intervention to promote sensitive parenting

Acknowledgements For part of the preparation period for this article, AM was supported by an NHS Research Scotland Career Research Fellowship. AM, LT, and PW have been involved in previous research into Mellow Parenting as well as other parenting programmes and have collaborated with the Mellow Parenting charity. PW has had travel and subsistence expenses reimbursed for attendance at a Mellow Parenting conference; otherwise the authors have not received financial recompense for any of these activities. We thank the Mellow Parenting charity for their advice about conducting this review.

Severity-Sensitive Robustness Analysis in Normative Systems

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