Educação matemática online: a elaboração de projetos de modelagem

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Bayesian inference for two-parameter gamma distribution assuming different noninformative priors

In this paper distinct prior distributions are derived in a Bayesian inference of the two-parameters Gamma distribution. Noniformative priors, such as Jeffreys, reference, MDIP, Tibshirani and an innovative prior based on the copula approach are investigated. We show that the maximal data information prior provides in an improper posterior density and that the different choices of the parameter of interest lead to different reference priors in this case. Based on the simulated data sets, the Bayesian estimates and credible intervals for the unknown parameters are computed and the performance of the prior distributions are evaluated. The Bayesian analysis is conducted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to generate samples from the posterior distributions under the above priors.

Mapeamento do conhecimento no processode atribuição de aulas em Escolas Técnicas

This article has the objective to describe the importance of management knowledge. And, for that, we have done a study upon a case, based on the mapping of the process of classes distribution in the Escolas Técnicas do Centro Paula Souza. The management of knowledge is a way to provide it to the people, considering that knowledge becomes a fundamental and necessary resource to the development of the privante or public organizations. The use of knowledge maps becomes a crucial factor in this process of transformation of tacit knowledge into explicit, because having a high knowledge level, and socialize it, is as essential and important as all the other resources that exist within the institutions.

Progettazione e sviluppo di un sistema esperto per il "Menu Planning"

La dieta, nell’antica medicina greca, rappresentava il complesso delle norme di vita, come l’alimentazione, l’attività fisica, il riposo, atte a mantenere lo stato di salute di una persona. Al giorno d’oggi le si attribuisce un significato fortemente legato all’alimentazione, puo` riferirsi al complesso di cibi che una persona mangia abitualmente oppure, con un messaggio un po' più moderno, ad una prescrizione di un regime alimentare da parte di un medico. Ogni essere umano mangia almeno tre volte al giorno, ognuno in base al proprio stile di vita, cultura, età, etc. possiede differenti abitudini alimentari che si ripercuotono sul proprio stato di salute. Inconsciamente tutti tengono traccia degli alimenti mangiati nei giorni precedenti, chi più chi meno, cercando di creare quindi una pianificazione di cosa mangiare nei giorni successivi, in modo da variare i pasti o semplicemente perchè si segue un regime alimentare particolare per un certo periodo. Diventa quindi fondamentale tracciare questa pianificazione, in tal modo si puo' tenere sotto controllo la propria alimentazione, che è in stretta relazione con il proprio stato di salute e stress, e si possono applicare una serie di aggiustamenti dove necessario. Questo è quello che cerca di fare il “Menu Planning”, offrire una sorta di guida all’alimentazione, permettendo così di aver sotto controllo tutti gli aspetti legati ad essa. Si pensi, ad esempio, ai prezzi degli alimenti, chiunque vorrebbe minimizzare la spesa, mangiare quello che gli piace senza dover per forza rinunciare a quale piccolo vizio quotidiano. Con le tecniche di “Menu Planning” è possibile avere una visione di insieme della propria alimentazione. La prima formulazione matematica del “Menu Planning” (allora chiamato diet problem) nacque durante gli anni ’40, l’esercito Americano allora impegnano nella Seconda Guerra Mondiale voleva abbassare i costi degli alimenti ai soldati mantenendo però inalterata la loro dieta. George Stingler, economista americano, trovò una soluzione, formulando un problema di ottimizzazione e vincendo il premio Nobel in Economia nel 1982. Questo elaborato tratta dell’automatizzazione di questo problema e di come esso possa essere risolto con un calcolatore, facendo soprattutto riferimento a particolari tecniche di intelligenza artificiale e di rappresentazione della conoscenza, nello specifico il lavoro si è concentrato sulla progettazione e sviluppo di un ES case-based per risolvere il problema del “Menu Planning”. Verranno mostrate varie tecniche per la rappresentazione della conoscenza e come esse possano essere utilizzate per fornire supporto ad un programma per elaboratore, partendo dalla Logica Proposizionale e del Primo Ordine, fino ad arrivare ai linguaggi di Description Logic e Programmazione Logica. Inoltre si illustrerà come è possibile raccogliere una serie di informazioni mediante procedimenti di Knowledge Engineering. A livello concettuale è stata introdotta un’architettura che mette in comunicazione l’ES e un Ontologia di alimenti con l’utilizzo di opportuni framework di sviluppo. L’idea è quella di offrire all’utente la possibilità di vedere la propria pianificazione settimanale di pasti e dare dei suggerimenti su che cibi possa mangiare durante l’arco della giornata. Si mostreranno quindi le potenzialità di tale architettura e come essa, tramite Java, riesca a far interagire ES case-based e Ontologia degli alimenti.

The Digital Economy Act in the dock: a proportionate ruling

The UK’s Digital Economy Act 2010 contains measures to enforce copyright on the Internet, specifically a two-tiered form of a graduated response.The Act was challenged in the High Court by two of the UK’s biggest Internet Service Providers (ISP), who obtained a Judicial Review of the copyright enforce- ment provisions. This paper is an overview of the case, based on the hearing of March 2011 and the ensuing judgement. It focuses on the two most hotly contested grounds for the challenge, namely an al- leged failure to notify the European Commission under the Technical Standards Directive, and the pro- portionality or otherwise of the contested provisions. It observes how the judgement accepted the defence argumentation of the government and the copyright owners as interested parties, and how the ISPs appeared to be put on the back foot.

Knowledge representation through graphs

Due to the increasing amount of data, knowledge aggregation, representation and reasoning are highly important for companies. In this paper, knowledge aggregation is presented as the first step. In the sequel, successful knowledge representation, for instance through graphs, enables knowledge-based reasoning. There exist various forms of knowledge representation through graphs; some of which allow to handle uncertainty and imprecision by invoking the technology of fuzzy sets. The paper provides an overview of different types of graphs stressing their relationships and their essential features.

New ruralities – old gender dynamics?: A reflection on high-value crop agriculture in the light of the feminisation debates

While a remarkable continuity in smallholder agricultural production has been identified, the shift from subsistence orientation towards more wage dependence appears in a different light when analysed under a gender perspective. "Feminisation" has been a catchphrase to characterise some of these processes; however, the debate has been subject to overgeneralisation, and can only inadequately grasp the gender dynamics in what has been referred to as "new ruralities". Illustrated for high-value crop production as an expression of agricultural transition in the Global South, this contribution offers a critical account of the feminisation thesis. Instead of discarding the notion of feminisation, it advocates a reassessment of its potential as a comprehensive framework against which empirical findings can be reflected. While conventional uses of the feminisation thesis have, in their great majority, come up with the conclusion that for women it can always only get worse, I propose a perspective which reveals gains and risks and how they are shared between men and women as they engage in new agricultural labour markets. This perspective rests on a methodology for case-based, comparative studies developed in this paper as a contribution for assessing the nature of agricultural transition and to investigate the qualitative change associated with new ruralities. A distinctive appreciation of the substance of agricultural change for different members of the rural society – namely men and women, but also different men, and different women – is the premise for overcoming barriers to shared development, and for framing effective governance in the context of global development.

Synchronous and Time-Lagged Effects between Occupational Self-Efficacy and Objective and Subjective Career Success: Findings from a Four-Wave and 9-Year Longitudinal Study

We integrated research on the dimensionality of career success into social-cognitive career theory and explored the positive feedback loop between occupational self-efficacy and objective and subjective career success over time (self-efficacy → objective success → subjective success → self-efficacy). Furthermore, we theoretically accounted for synchronous and time-lagged effects, as well as indirect reciprocity between the variables. We tested the proposed model by means of longitudinal structural equation modeling in a 9-year four-wave panel design, by applying a model comparison approach and indirect effect analyses (N = 608 professionals). The findings supported the proposed positive feedback loop between occupational self-efficacy and career success. Supporting our time-based reasoning, the findings showed that unfolding effects between occupational self-efficacy and objective career success take more time (i.e., time-lagged or over time) than unfolding effects between objective and subjective career success, as well as between subjective career success and occupational self-efficacy (i.e., synchronous or concurrently). Indirect effects of past on future occupational self-efficacy via objective and subjective career success were significant, providing support for an indirect reciprocity model. Results are discussed with respect to extensions of social-cognitive career theory and occupational self-efficacy development over time.

Improvement of the processes around the radiology workplace : avoidance of time delays

Radiologists have been confronted with multiple new challenges in recent years. While there has been a steady increase in the number of radiological examinations and imaging material per examination, examination protocols have become more complex and highly time-consuming whereas case-based remuneration is on the decline. The identification of inefficient components in examination processes and reporting is therefore essential. Where and why do time delays occur? How can they be avoided? The following article provides a brief overview and is designed to stimulate discussion.

Variation in treatment strategies of Swiss general practitioners for subclinical hypothyroidism in older adults.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY As the best management of subclinical hypothyroidism is controversial, we aimed to assess variations in treatment strategies depending on different Swiss regions, physician and patient characteristics. METHODS We performed a case-based survey among general practitioners (GPs) in different Swiss regions, which consisted of eight hypothetical cases presenting a female patient with subclinical hypothyroidism and nonspecific complaints differing by age, vitality status and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) concentration. RESULTS A total of 262 GPs participated in the survey. There was considerable variation in the levothyroxine starting dose chosen by GPs, ranging from 25 µg to 100 µg. Across the Swiss regions, GPs in the Bern region were significantly more inclined to treat, with a higher probability of initiating treatment (60%, p = 0.01) and higher mean starting doses (45 µg, p <0.01) compared with the French-speaking region (44%, 36 µg); the Zurich region had intermediate values (52%, 39 µg). We found no association between treatment rate and other physician characteristics. GPs were more reluctant to initiate treatment in 85-year-old than in 70-year-old women (odds ratio [OR] 0.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.63-0.94), and more likely to treat women with a TSH of 15 mU/l than those with a TSH of 6mU/l (OR 8.71, 95% CI 6.21-12.20). CONCLUSIONS There are strong variations in treatment strategies for elderly patients with subclinical hypothyroidism across different Swiss regions, including use of higher starting doses than the recommended 25 µg in the Swiss guidelines, which recommend a starting dose of 25 µg. These variations likely reflect the current uncertainty about the benefits of treatment, which arise from the current lack of evidence from adequately powered clinical trials.

Evaluation of epidemiological and clinical factors in survival of patients with de novo myelodysplastic syndrome at the University of Texas MD Anderson cancer center

Little is known about epidemiological markers that are associated with survival of patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). We conducted a secondary case-based analysis of 465 de novo MDS patients from the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center (UTMDACC). We investigated the association between demographic as well as occupational exposure markers and survival while incorporating known clinical markers of prognosis. In our patient population, 60.6% were men and the majority were white (93.1%). The distribution of MDS subtypes by the French–American–British (FAB) classification was 81 (19%) refractory anemia (RA), 46 (9.9%) refractory anemia with ringed sideroblasts (RARS), 57 (12.3%) chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML), 173 (37.2%) RA with excess blasts (RAEB), and 86 (18.5%) RAEB in transformation (RAEBT). We found that those older at diagnosis (> 60 years of age) (HR = 1.68, CI = 1.26-2.25) were at a higher risk of dying compared to younger patients. Similarly, high pack years of smoking (>= 30 pack years of smoking) (HR = 1.34, CI = 1.02-1.74), and agricultural chemical exposure (HR = 1.61, CI = 1.05-2.46) were significantly associated with overall lower survival when compared to patients with none or medium exposures. Among clinical markers, greater than 5% bone marrow blasts (HR = 1.81 CI = 1.27-2.56), poor cytogenetics (HR = 3.20, CI = 2.37-4.33)), and platelet cytopenias (<100000/ul) (HR = 1.46, CI = 1.11-1.92) were also significantly associated with overall MDS survival.^ The identification of epidemiological markers could help physicians stratify patients and customize treatment strategies to improve the outcome of MDS based on patient lifestyle information such as smoking exposure and agrochemical exposure. We hope that this study highlights the impact of these exposures in MDS prognosis.^

An overview of the ciao system

Ciao is a logic-based, multi-paradigm programming system. One of its most distinguishing features is that it supports a large number of semantic and syntactic language features which can be selectively activated or deactivated for each program module. As a result, a module can be written in, for example, ISO-Prolog plus constraints and higher order, while another can be a puré logic module with a different control rule such as iterative deepening and/or tabling, and perhaps using constructive negation. A powerful and modular extensión mechanism allows user-level design and implementation of such features and sub-languages. Another distinguishing feature of Ciao is its powerful assertion language, which allows expressing many kinds of program properties (ranging from, e.g., moded types to resource consumption), as well as tests and documentation. The compiler is capable of statically ñnding violations of these properties or verifying that programs comply with them, and issuing certiñcates of this compliance. The compiler also performs many types of optimizations, including automatic parallelization. It offers very competitive performance, while retaining the flexibility and interactive development of a dynamic language. We will present a hands-on overview of the system, through small examples which emphasize the novel aspects and the motivations which lie behind Ciao's design and implementation.

Indicators and Estimators in P-Adaptive Boundary Elements

The paper presents the possibility of implementing a p-adaptive process with the B.E.M. Although the exemples show that good results can be obtained with a limited amount of storage and with the simple ideas explained above, more research is needed in order to improve the two main problems of the method, i.e.: the criteria of where to refine and until what degree. Mathematically based reasoning is still lacking and will be useful to simplify the decission making. Nevertheless the method seems promising and, we hope, opens a path for a series of research lines of maximum interest. Although the paper has dealt only with plane potential problem the extension to plane elasticity as well as to 3-D potential problem is straight-forward.

CONSCIÊNCIA SANITÁRIA: UMA QUESTÃO DE COMUNICAÇÃO E SAÚDE: Um estudo sobre a Vigilância Sanitária de Vitória

O trabalho é um estudo de caso baseado na aná lise crítica do processo de comunicação utilizado pela Vigilância Sanitária de Vitória, ES no desenvolvimento de suas funções e no cumprimento de sua missão de prevenção, proteção e recuperação da saúde da população. Através da aplicação de questionários estruturados com perguntas abertas, semi-abertas e fechadas com funcionários do setor e com uma amostra extraída da lista de contribuintes que receberam o alvará sanitário em 2003 confeccionamos um diagnóstico dos problemas comunicacionais existentes e sugerimos mudanças possíveis. Optamos ter como referencial teórico além da teoria crítica, pesquisas realizadas pelo grupo de pensadores Comunicacionais Latino Americanos porque seus trabalhos se aproximam mais da realidade brasileira. Os resultados obtidos elucidam que a comunicação para a saúde ainda não recebe o reconhecimento necessário nas atividades diárias que visam a saúde coletiva, no caso de Vitória. Confirmamos com a pesquisa a hipótese de que as ações da Vigilância Sanitária não se concretizam sem comunicação eficiente e que muito pode ser feito para melhorar o serviço oferecido se os problemas comunicacionais forem sanados.

CONSCIÊNCIA SANITÁRIA: UMA QUESTÃO DE COMUNICAÇÃO E SAÚDE: Um estudo sobre a Vigilância Sanitária de Vitória

O trabalho é um estudo de caso baseado na aná lise crítica do processo de comunicação utilizado pela Vigilância Sanitária de Vitória, ES no desenvolvimento de suas funções e no cumprimento de sua missão de prevenção, proteção e recuperação da saúde da população. Através da aplicação de questionários estruturados com perguntas abertas, semi-abertas e fechadas com funcionários do setor e com uma amostra extraída da lista de contribuintes que receberam o alvará sanitário em 2003 confeccionamos um diagnóstico dos problemas comunicacionais existentes e sugerimos mudanças possíveis. Optamos ter como referencial teórico além da teoria crítica, pesquisas realizadas pelo grupo de pensadores Comunicacionais Latino Americanos porque seus trabalhos se aproximam mais da realidade brasileira. Os resultados obtidos elucidam que a comunicação para a saúde ainda não recebe o reconhecimento necessário nas atividades diárias que visam a saúde coletiva, no caso de Vitória. Confirmamos com a pesquisa a hipótese de que as ações da Vigilância Sanitária não se concretizam sem comunicação eficiente e que muito pode ser feito para melhorar o serviço oferecido se os problemas comunicacionais forem sanados.