BP算法在辽宁观音阁水库枯季地表入库径流实时预报中的应用

根据太子河流域降水和产汇流特点 ,利用流域试点区观音阁水库枯季入库径流量、上游汛期降水量、汛末入库径流量和枯季降水量等实测系列资料 ,对所建立的BP神经网络模型进行训练、检验和对比分析 ,结果表明 ,所建立的枯季径流BP预报模型是合理可行的 ,并且具备较高的精度 ,可在同类地区推广使用

降水量的BP人工神经网络预测模型及其应用

由于影响因素的复杂性 ,预测降水量具有相当的难度。在假设区域长时间内降水量和蒸发量保持平衡的基础上 ,用 BP人工神经网络建立了陕西省汉中市的降水量预测模型 ,根据前 3个月降水量和蒸发量对降水量资料进行了模拟预测 ,结果认为其准确率为 84% ,合格率为 10 0 %。

Formation and evolution of the modern warm current system in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea since the last deglaciation

To reconstruct the formation and evolution process of the warm current system within the East China Sea (ECS) and the Yellow Sea (YS) since the last deglaciation, the paleoceangraphic records in core DGKS9603, core CSH1 and core YSDP102, which were retrieved from the mainstream of the Kuroshio Current (KC), the edge of the modern Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) and muddy region under cold waters accreted with the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) respectively, were synthetically analyzed. The results indicate that the formation and evolution of the modern warm current system in the ECS and the YS has been accompanied by the development of the KC and impulse rising of the sea level since the last deglaciation. The influence of the KC on the Okinawa Trough had enhanced since 16 cal kyr BP, and synchronously the modern TWC began to develop with the rising of sea level and finally formed at about 8.5 cal kyr BP. The KC had experienced two weakening process during the Heinrich event 1 and the Younger Drays event from 16 to 8.5 cal kyr BP. The period of 7-6 cal kyr BP was the strongest stage of the KC and the TWC since the last deglaciation. The YSWC has appeared at about 6.4 cal kyr BP. Thus, the warm current system of the ECS and the YS has ultimately formed. The weakness of the KC, indicated by the occurrence of Pulleniatina minimum event (PME) during the period from 5.3 to 2.8 cal kyr BP, caused the main stream of the TWC to shift eastward to the Pacific Ocean around about 3 cal kyr BP. The process resulted in the intruding of continent shelf cold water mass with rich nutrients. Synchronously, the strength of the YSWC was relatively weak and the related cold water body was active at the early-mid stage of its appearance against the PME background, which resulted in the quick formation of muddy deposit system in the southeastern YS. The strength of the warm current system in the ECS and the YS has enhanced evidently, and approached to the modern condition gradually since 3 cal kyr BP.

Cold event at 5 500 a BP recorded in mud sediments on the inner shelf of the East China Sea

A 700-year record (1.0-1.5 a resolution) of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), based on grain-size analysis and AMS(14)C dating of Core EC2005 from the inner-shelf mud wedge of the East China Sea (ECS), was compared with the Dongge stalagmite delta O-18 record during the mid-Holocene. The upper muddy section of Core EC2005 has been formed mainly by suspended sediments derived from the Changjiang (Yangtze) River mouth since 7.3 ka BP. High precipitation and a strengthened EAWM might have played key roles in the high sedimentation rate (1 324-1 986 cm/ka) between 5.9-5.2 ka BP. The EAWM strengthened when the Asian summer monsoon weakened, especially around 5 500 a BP, which corresponded to a worldwide cold event. The EAWM during the mid-Holocene shows statistically significant solar periodicities at 62 and 11 a. The 5 500 a BP cold event might be resulted from orbital forcing and changes in solar activity.

Benthic foraminifera and bottom water evolution in the middle-southern Okinawa Trough during the last 18 ka

A piston sediment core E017 from the middle-southern Okinawa Trough was investigated. A preliminary study of the deep-water evolution since 18 cal. ka BP was performed based on the quantitative census data of benthic foraminiferal fauna, together with planktonic foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotope, AMS(14)C dating, and the previous results achieved in the southern Okinawa Trough. The result shows that the benthic fauna was dominated by Bulimina aculeata (d'Orbigny), Uvigerina peregrina (Cushman), Hispid Uvigerina and Uvigerina dirupta (Todd) during the glaciation-deglaciation before 9.2 cal. ka BP, while Epistominella exigua (Brady), Pullenia bulloides (d'Orbigny), Cibicidoides hyalina (Hofker), Sphaeroidina bulloides (d'Orbigny) and Globocassidulina subglobosa (Brady) predominated the fauna in the post-glacial period after 9.2 cal. ka BP. The benthic foraminifera accumulation rate (BFAR), paleoproductivity estimates and benthic foraminiferal assemblage conformably indicate that surface water paleoproductivity and organic matter flux during the glaciation-deglaciation were higher than those of the post-glacial period in the middle-southern Okinawa Trough, and gradually enhanced from the southern to the central Okinawa Trough during the glaciation-deglaciation, which could be caused by the discrepancy of the terrigenous nutrients supply. High abundances of E exigua, an indicator of pulsed organic matter input, after 9.2 cal. ka. BP may indicate that the intensity of seasonally riverine pulsed flux during the post-glacial period was stronger than that of the glaciation-deglaciation period, and the seasonal influx in the central trough might be stronger than in the south. The temporal distributions of the typical species indicating bottom water oxygen content and ventilation condition show that the ventilation of the bottom water during the post-glacial period is more active than the glaciation-deglaciation, which reflects that the evolution of the intermediate and deep waters of the northwestern Pacific during the last glaciation has no evident influence on the deep-water of the middle-southern Okinawa Trough. Additionally, the variations in agglutinated benthic foraminiferal abundance and other carbonate dissolution proxies indicate that carbonate dissolution gradually increased since the last 18 ka in the Okinawa Trough and rapidly enhanced at 9.2 cal. ka BP. The modern shallow carbonate lysocline could form at 3 cal. ka BP.

Heinrich event imprints in the Okinawa Trough: evidence from oxygen isotope and planktonic foraminifera

Planktonic foraminiferal faunas, oxygen isotope and modern analog technique sea surface temperature records were obtained in piston core DGKS9603 (28degrees08.869'N, 127degrees16.238'E, water depth 1100 in) collected from the middle Okinawa Trough. During the last glaciation, four cold events were identified and correlate Heinrich events (HE) H2-5 of the last 45 ka. During the last deglaciation, core DGKS9603 has begun to be influenced by the Kuroshio since about 16 cal ka BP. Three weakenings of this warm current occurred at about 2.8-5.3, 11.4 and 15.5 cal ka BP respectively. Among the three fluctuations, the oldest one is synchronous with HE1 and could be a response to the strong cooling observed in the North Atlantic Ocean. The fluctuation occurring at about 11.4 cal ka ago corresponds to the Younger Dryas within the age error bars. Our observations provide new evidence that the HEs documented from Greenland and the northern North Atlantic had a global climatic impact. Changes in the intensity of the East Asian monsoon could be the main mechanism responsible for the paleoccanographic variations observed in the Okinawa Trough. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Evolution and variation of the Tsushima warm current during the late Quaternary: Evidence from planktonic foraminifera, oxygen and carbon isotopes

The evolution and variation history of the Tsushima warm current during the late Quaternary was reconstructed based on the quantitative census data of planktonic foraminiferal fauna, together with oxygen and carbon isotope records of mixed layer dweller a ruber and thermocline dweller N. dutertrei in piston core CSH1 and core DGKS9603 collected separately from the Tsushima warm current and the Kuroshio dominated area. The result showed that the Tsushima warm current vanished in the lowstand period during 40-24 cal ka BP, while the Kuroshio still flowed across the Okinawa Trough, arousing strong upwelling in the northern Trough. Meanwhile, the influence of freshwater greatly increased in the northern Okinawa Trough, as the broad East China Sea continental shelf emerged. The freshwater reached its maximum during the last glacial maximum (LGM), when the upwelling obviously weakened for the lowest sea-level and the depression of the Kuroshio. The modern Tsushima warm current began its development since 16 cal ka BP, and the impact of the Kuroshio increased in the middle and northern Okinawa Trough synchronously during the deglaciation and gradually evolved as the main water source of the Tsushima current. The modern Tsushima current finally formed at about 8.5 cal ka BP, since then the circulation structure has been relatively stable. The water of the modern Tsushima current primarily came from the Kuroshio axis. A short-term wiggle of the current occurred at about 3 cal ka BP, probably for the influences from the enhancement of the winter monsoon and the depression of the Kuroshio. The cold water masses greatly strengthened during the wiggle.

Paleoenvironmental change in the middle Okinawa Trough since the last deglaciation: Evidence from the sedimentation rate and planktonic foraminiferal record

Well-dated, high-resolution records of planktonic foraminifera and oxygen isotopes from two sediment cores, A7 and E017, in the middle Okinawa Trough reveal strong and rapid millennial-scale climate changes since similar to 18 to 17 thousand years before present (kyr B.P.). Sedimentation rate shows a sudden drop at similar to 11.2 cal. kyr B.P. due to a rapid rise of sea level after the Younger Dryas (YD) and consequently submergence of the large continental shelf on the East China Sea (ECS) and the retreat of the estuary providing sediment to the basin. During the last deglaciation, the relative abundance of warm and cold species of planktonic foraminifera fluctuates strongly, consistent with the timing of sea surface temperature (SST) variations determined from Mg/Ca measurements of planktonic foraminifera from one of the two cores. These fluctuations are coeval with climate variation recorded in the Greenland ice cores and North Atlantic sediments, namely Heinrich event 1 (H1), Bolling-Allerod (B/A) and YD events. At about 9.4 kyr B.P., a sudden change in the relative abundance of shallow to deep planktonic species probably indicates a sudden strengthening of the Kuroshio Current in the Okinawa Trough, which was synchronous with a rapid sea-level rise at 9.5-9.2 kyr B.P. in the ECS, Yellow Sea (YS) and South China Sea (SCS). The abundance of planktonic foraminiferal species, together with Mg/Ca based SST, exhibits millennial-scale oscillations during the Holocene, with 7 cold events (at about 1.7, 2.3-4.6, 6.2, 7.3, 8.2, 9.6, 10.6 cal. kyr BP) superimposed on a Holocene warming trend. This Holocene trend, together with centennial-scale SST variations superimposed on the last deglacial trend, suggests that both high and low latitude influences affected the climatology of the Okinawa Trough. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Carbonate cycle and its control factors in Kuroshio source region during the last 190ka BP

Two deep sea cores (Ph05-5, 16.05 degrees N, 124.34 degrees E, water depth 3382m and WP3: 22.15 degrees N, 122.95 degrees E, water depth 2700m) retrieved from the Kuroshio source region of the western Philippine Sea were selected to carry out the CaCO3 and calcareous nannofossil faunas study. Based on AMS(14)C data and comparing tire oxygen isotope curve with SPECMAP delta O-18 (Martinson et al., 1987) a stratigraphy was established. And, combining the changes of primary productivity and dissolution index of carbonate, the carbonate cycle and its control factors were analyzed in this region during the last 190ka BP. The carbonate contents showed higher values in the glacial periods and lower values during the interglacial and Holocene periods, which characteristics was similar to the tendency of "Pacific Type" carbonate cycle. However, there were high carbonate contents in the warm period and low values during the cold interval, which displayed the same tendency with the "Atlantic Type" carbonate cycle during the last glacial period (MIS4-2) in the east of Phillipines. The variations of primary productivity and carbonate dissolution index indicated that the carbonate dissolution was a major factor controlling the carbonate content in tire cast of Philippines, and the variations in carbonate contents were mainly affected by the productivity of calcareous organism in the Southeast of Taiwan. The "Atlantic Type" carbonate cycle in the cast of Phillipines during the last glacial period (MIS4-2) was an effect of the process of dissolution combined with the change of primary productivity.

25ka B.P.以来黑潮流域古环境演化对高频全球变化事件的响应

本文利用黑潮流域主流轴上的两个柱状沉积物岩芯MD05-2908以及PC-1为研究材料，在AMS14C测年的基础上，利用高分辨率的有机地球化学分析记录结合浮游有孔虫氧、碳同位素，恢复并重建了过去25,000 cal a BP以来黑潮流域古海洋环境演化的历史。以及表层海水生产力以及物质输送状况的演化历史。通过利用Uk’37古海水温度以及盐度指标恢复重建了过去25,000 cal a BP以来海洋表层海水温度、盐度；通过机碳、氮含量以及同位素变化、长链正构烷烃以及正构烷醇等指标重建了过去7000a B.P.以来的陆源物质输入历史；通过长链不饱和烯酮含量以及有机碳同位素指标恢复了过去7000a B.P.以来海水表层生产力的历史。此外，通过基于以上各种指标的环境信息与区域以及全球其它气候记录进行对比研究以及不同环境指标的时间系列分析，探讨了该区表层环流系统以及生产力的演化对于全球气候变化的响应，揭示了不同尺度的短周期高频率全球变化事件在黑潮流域的具体作用过程和响应机制。通过这些研究取得了以下的主要认识： 基于有机地球化学指标的古气候环境记录与黑潮流域已有的研究成果有很好的对应关系，从我们高分辨率的有机地球化学记录中可以识别出全新世黑潮强弱变化的几次明显的事件；25000a B.P.以来黑潮流域的环境变化与全球环境变化有着很好的对应性，黑潮强弱演化总体趋势与全球气候背景演化相一致，黑潮对高频气候变化事件的记录与全球记录具有同步性，这种同步性尤其体现在末次冰消期以来的气候快速高频振荡以及全新世以来的气候突变事件上。 全球性的高频气候事件对黑潮主体本身及黑潮流域的相邻区域的大气和海洋环流都具有重要的控制作用，这种控制作用主要通过副高、ITCZ以及季风三种气候要素之间相互关联、彼此影响造成的。具体表现为：太阳辐射量的减少导致热力差异减小，这种相对减小弱化了热带西太平洋的对流活动，造成了西太平洋副热带高压长期偏南、偏东，ITCZ平均北界位置偏南，降雨带长时间集中在南部地区，增强的降雨量提高了风化剥蚀以及沉积物向海洋搬运的能力，陆源物质供应量增加；同时，辐射量以及热力差的减小又与加强的东亚冬季风相联系，增强的冬季风导致了近底层“雾状层”物质的向海传输，物质传输效率增高。这种物源供应以及搬运量的双重增加导致了冲绳海槽流域物质通量的增加。 基于有机地球化学指标的海洋表层生产力的变化与陆源物质供应量以及黑潮流的强弱变化存在着对应关系，通常情况增加的海洋表层生产力对应着高的陆源物质输入以及相对较弱的黑潮。这种变化与东亚夏季风的以及冬季风的强弱都有很好的一致性。陆源物质的输入增加了表层营养物质的含量，导致生产力的勃发；陆源物质的输入增加又对应着减少的太阳辐射量，偏南的ITCZ北界位置以及副热带高压，这些对应于减弱的东亚夏季风（增强的东亚冬季风）。 黑潮流域的高沉积速率事件对应于减弱的黑潮强度和增加的ENSO频度，这些事件与上述的副热带高压、ITCZ位移和强弱的变化相一致。黑潮流域过去25000a B.P.以来南北温度的差异有冰期加大而全新世减小的趋势，但这种冰期与全新世的差异很小，我们认为末次盛冰期的时候黑潮主流轴没有移出冲绳黑潮，只是由于强度的减弱受陆架水体的影响有所加大。 黑潮流域很好的记录到了包括数千年尺度的D/O旋回周期到大气——海洋系统内部振荡所致的PDO、NAO等数十年尺度的高频振荡，说明黑潮流域对过去全球及区域环境变化事件有很好的响应。黑潮流域各古海洋指标所记录周期上的一致性说明这些环境因子控制机理上具有的一致性，即大背景上受太阳活动所引起的辐射量变化控制，局部的高频快速气候波动又受到局域性的气候因素如海气相互作用的放大影响。

利用BP神经网络实现三维物体姿态的测定

本文利用BP(Back-Propagation)人工神经网络对三维物体的姿态测定进行了研究。姿态测定一直缺少通用而实际的方法,人工神经网络由于具有强大的自组织、自适应学习能力,迅速的并行信息处理能力,可望解决这个问题。但现有BP算法存在训练慢和易陷入局部最小两个问题.本文提出的级联形式网络结构,使BP网络的训练速度大为提高,陷入局部最小的可能性大为降低。利用这种级联结构对飞机模型姿态测定,取得了较好的实验结果。

基于粗糙集-BP神经网络的发动机故障诊断

由于发动机光谱分析监控数据中磨损微粒种类过多,如果将这些微粒信息直接作为神经网络的输入,则存在输入层神经元过多、网络结构复杂等诸多问题。本文将粗糙集引入到发动机故障诊断中来,利用粗糙集在属性约简方面的优势,删除冗余磨损微粒,提取出重要磨损微粒,并将其作为BP神经网络的输入,建立发动机故障诊断模型。该方法降低输入层的神经元个数,简化了网络结构,缩短网络训练时间,并且由于剔除了冗余磨损微粒,减少了由该部分微粒信息不准确而带来的误差,有效提高了故障诊断的精确度。最后通过算例分析验证了相关算法和诊断模型的准确性和有效性。

基于改进的模糊C均值的BP分类器设计

提出了一种基于改进模糊C均值的BP神经网络分类器的设计,通过改进的模糊C均值算法对大量的数据进行聚类划分,然后设计BP神经网络对划分后的数据进行训练和测试,最后由计算机进行综合判断.试验证明该分类器是有效的,可以对高速公路车辆的车型进行迅速判别.