Inferring the structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere during the Maunder minimum using global thermodynamic magnetohydrodynamic simulations

Observations of the Sun’s corona during the space era have led to a picture of relatively constant, but cyclically varying solar output and structure. Longer-term, more indirect measurements, such as from 10Be, coupled by other albeit less reliable contemporaneous reports, however, suggest periods of significant departure from this standard. The Maunder Minimum was one such epoch where: (1) sunspots effectively disappeared for long intervals during a 70 yr period; (2) eclipse observations suggested the distinct lack of a visible K-corona but possible appearance of the F-corona; (3) reports of aurora were notably reduced; and (4) cosmic ray intensities at Earth were inferred to be substantially higher. Using a global thermodynamic MHD model, we have constructed a range of possible coronal configurations for the Maunder Minimum period and compared their predictions with these limited observational constraints. We conclude that the most likely state of the corona during—at least—the later portion of the Maunder Minimum was not merely that of the 2008/2009 solar minimum, as has been suggested recently, but rather a state devoid of any large-scale structure, driven by a photospheric field composed of only ephemeral regions, and likely substantially reduced in strength. Moreover, we suggest that the Sun evolved from a 2008/2009-like configuration at the start of the Maunder Minimum toward an ephemeral-only configuration by the end of it, supporting a prediction that we may be on the cusp of a new grand solar minimum.

A regionally informed abundance index for supporting integrative analyses across butterfly monitoring schemes

1. The rapid expansion of systematic monitoring schemes necessitates robust methods to reliably assess species' status and trends. Insect monitoring poses a challenge where there are strong seasonal patterns, requiring repeated counts to reliably assess abundance. Butterfly monitoring schemes (BMSs) operate in an increasing number of countries with broadly the same methodology, yet they differ in their observation frequency and in the methods used to compute annual abundance indices. 2. Using simulated and observed data, we performed an extensive comparison of two approaches used to derive abundance indices from count data collected via BMS, under a range of sampling frequencies. Linear interpolation is most commonly used to estimate abundance indices from seasonal count series. A second method, hereafter the regional generalized additive model (GAM), fits a GAM to repeated counts within sites across a climatic region. For the two methods, we estimated bias in abundance indices and the statistical power for detecting trends, given different proportions of missing counts. We also compared the accuracy of trend estimates using systematically degraded observed counts of the Gatekeeper Pyronia tithonus (Linnaeus 1767). 3. The regional GAM method generally outperforms the linear interpolation method. When the proportion of missing counts increased beyond 50%, indices derived via the linear interpolation method showed substantially higher estimation error as well as clear biases, in comparison to the regional GAM method. The regional GAM method also showed higher power to detect trends when the proportion of missing counts was substantial. 4. Synthesis and applications. Monitoring offers invaluable data to support conservation policy and management, but requires robust analysis approaches and guidance for new and expanding schemes. Based on our findings, we recommend the regional generalized additive model approach when conducting integrative analyses across schemes, or when analysing scheme data with reduced sampling efforts. This method enables existing schemes to be expanded or new schemes to be developed with reduced within-year sampling frequency, as well as affording options to adapt protocols to more efficiently assess species status and trends across large geographical scales.

Quantitative structure of an acetate dye molecule analogue at the TiO2- acetic acid interface

The positions of atoms in and around acetate molecules at the rutile TiO2(110) interface with 0.1 M acetic acid have been determined with a precision of ±0.05 Å. Acetate is used as a surrogate for the carboxylate groups typically employed to anchor monocarboxylate dye molecules to TiO2 in dye-sensitised solar cells (DSSC). Structural analysis reveals small domains of ordered (2 x 1) acetate molecules, with substrate atoms closer to their bulk terminated positions compared to the clean UHV surface. Acetate is found in a bidentate bridge position, binding through both oxygen atoms to two five-fold titanium atoms such that the molecular plane is along the [001] azimuth. Density functional theory calculations provide adsorption geometries in excellent agreement with experiment. The availability of these structural data will improve the accuracy of charge transport models for DSSC.

The ancient Britons: groundwater fauna survived extreme climate change over tens of millions of years across NW Europe

Global climate changes during the Cenozoic (65.5–0 Ma) caused major biological range shifts and extinctions. In northern Europe, for example, a pattern of few endemics and the dominance of wide-ranging species is thought to have been determined by the Pleistocene (2.59–0.01 Ma) glaciations. This study, in contrast, reveals an ancient subsurface fauna endemic to Britain and Ireland. Using a Bayesian phylogenetic approach, we found that two species of stygobitic invertebrates (genus Niphargus) have not only survived the entire Pleistocene in refugia but have persisted for at least 19.5 million years. Other Niphargus species form distinct cryptic taxa that diverged from their nearest continental relative between 5.6 and 1.0 Ma. The study also reveals an unusual biogeographical pattern in the Niphargus genus. It originated in north-west Europe approximately 87 Ma and underwent a gradual range expansion. Phylogenetic diversity and species age are highest in north-west Europe, suggesting resilience to extreme climate change and strongly contrasting the patterns seen in surface fauna. However, species diversity is highest in south-east Europe, indicating that once the genus spread to these areas (approximately 25 Ma), geomorphological and climatic conditions enabled much higher diversification. Our study highlights that groundwater ecosystems provide an important contribution to biodiversity and offers insight into the interactions between biological and climatic processes.

The medieval climate anomaly and Byzantium: a review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change

At the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, in the ninth and tenth century, the medieval eastern Roman empire, more usually known as Byzantium, was recovering from its early medieval crisis and experiencing favourable climatic conditions for the agricultural and demographic growth. Although in the Balkans and Anatolia such favourable climate conditions were prevalent during the eleventh century, parts of the imperial territories were facing significant challenges as a result of external political/military pressure. The apogee of medieval Byzantine socio-economic development, around AD 1150, coincides with a period of adverse climatic conditions for its economy, so it becomes obvious that the winter dryness and high climate variability at this time did not hinder Byzantine society and economy from achieving that level of expansion. Soon after this peak, towards the end of the twelfth century, the populations of the Byzantine world were experiencing unusual climatic conditions with marked dryness and cooler phases. The weakened Byzantine socio-political system must have contributed to the events leading to the fall of Constantinople in AD 1204 and the sack of the city. The final collapse of the Byzantine political control over western Anatolia took place half century later, thus contemporaneous with the strong cooling effect after a tropical volcanic eruption in AD 1257. We suggest that, regardless of a range of other influential factors, climate change was also an important contributing factor to the socio-economic changes that took place in Byzantium during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Crucially, therefore, while the relatively sophisticated and complex Byzantine society was certainly influenced by climatic conditions, and while it nevertheless displayed a significant degree of resilience, external pressures as well as tensions within the Byzantine society more broadly contributed to an increasing vulnerability in respect of climate impacts. Our interdisciplinary analysis is based on all available sources of information on the climate and society of Byzantium, that is textual (documentary), archaeological, environmental, climate and climate model-based evidence about the nature and extent of climate variability in the eastern Mediterranean. The key challenge was, therefore, to assess the relative influence to be ascribed to climate variability and change on the one hand, and on the other to the anthropogenic factors in the evolution of Byzantine state and society (such as invasions, changes in international or regional market demand and patterns of production and consumption, etc.). The focus of this interdisciplinary

Dependência de trajetória na defesa civil do município de São Paulo

O objetivo desse trabalho é discutir as concepções de dependência de trajetória (path dependence) formuladas por Paul Pierson e Jörg Sydow tendo como objeto de estudo a defesa civil do município de São Paulo. Com base no modelos analíticos definidos por esses autores será possível demonstrar como as escolhas iniciais condicionaram a atuação da defesa civil paulistana influenciando no modo como essa organização desenvolve suas atividades atualmente.

Innovación tecnológica y perfeccionamiento de las pequeñas y medianas empresas en la República Federal de Alemania: incentivos y financiamiento

Incluye Bibliografía

Systemic competitiveness: a new challenge for firms and for government

Includes bibliography

Competitividad sistémica: nuevo desafío para las empresas y la política

Incluye Bibliografía

Corpus Luteum Development and Function after Supplementation of Long-Acting Progesterone During the Early Luteal Phase in Beef Cattle

Contents: Strategic supplementation of P4 may be used to increase conception rates in cattle, but timing of supplementation in relation to ovulation, mass of supplementary P4 and formulation of the P4-containing supplement has not been determined for beef cattle. Effects of supplementation of long-acting progesterone (P4) on Days 2 or 3 post-ovulation on development, function and regression of corpus luteum (CL) were studied in beef cattle. Cows were synchronized with an oestradiol/P4-based protocol and treated with 150 or 300 mg of long-acting P4 on Day 2 or 3 post-ovulation (6-7 cows/group). Colour-doppler ultrasound scanning and blood sample collection were performed from Day 2-21.5. Plasma P4 concentrations were greater (p < 0.05) from Day 2.5-5.5 in the Day 2-treated groups and from Day 3.5-5.5 in the Day 3-treated cows than in the control group. CL area and blood flow during Day 2-8.5 did not differ (p > 0.05) among groups, suggesting no effect of P4 treatment on luteal development. The frequency of cows that began luteolysis before Day 15 was greater (p < 0.04) in cows treated with 300 mg than in the controls, but there were no differences between non-treated and 150 mg-treated cows. The interval from pre-treatment ovulation to functional and structural luteolysis was shorter (p < 0.01) in the combined P4-treated groups than in the control cows. In conclusion, was showed for the first time that long-acting P4 supplementation on Day 2 or 3 post-ovulation increases P4 concentrations for ≥3 day, has no effect on luteal development, but anticipates the beginning of luteolysis in beef cattle. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Migração por equação de onda em meios anisotrópicos com correção de amplitude

Este trabalho discute dois aspectos da migração em profundidade através da continuação para baixo dos campos de onda: o tratamento de modos evanescentes e a correção da amplitude dos eventos migrados. Estes dois aspectos são discutidos em meios isotrópicos e para uma classe de meios anisotrópicos. Migrações por diferenças finitas (FD) e por diferenças finitas e Fourier (FFD) podem ser instáveis em meios com forte variação lateral de velocidade. Estes métodos utilizam aproximações de Padé reais para representar o operador que descreve a propagação de ondas descendentes. Estas abordagens não são capazes de tratar corretamente os modos evanescentes, o que pode levar à instabilidades numéricas em meios com forte variação lateral de velocidade. Uma solução possível para esse problema é utilizar aproximação de Padé complexa, que consegue melhor representar os modos evanescentes associados às reflexões pós-críticas, e neste trabalho esta aproximação é utilizada para obter algoritmos FD e híbrido FD/FFD estáveis para migração em meios transversalmente isotrópicos com eixo de simetria vertical (VTI), mesmo na presença de forte variação nas propriedades elásticas do meio. A estabilidade dos algoritmos propostos para meios VTI foi validada através da resposta ao impulso do operador de migração e pela sua aplicação na migração de dados sintéticos, em meios fortemente heterogêneos. Métodos de migração por equação de onda em meios heterogêneos não tratam corretamente a amplitude dos eventos durante a propagação. As equações de onda unidirecionais tradicionais descrevem corretamente apenas a parte cinemática da propagação do campo de onda. Assim, para uma descrição correta das amplitudes deve-se usar as equações de onda unidirecionais de amplitude verdadeira. Em meios verticalmente heterogêneos, as equações de onda unidirecionais de amplitude verdadeira podem ser resolvidas analiticamente. Em meios lateralmente heterogêneos, essas equações não possuem uma solução analítica. Mesmo soluções numéricas tendem a ser instáveis. Para melhorar a compensação de amplitude na migração, em meios com variação lateral de velocidade, é proposto uma aproximação estável para solução da equação de onda unidirecional de amplitude verdadeira. Esta nova aproximação é implementada nas migrações split-step e diferenças finitas e Fourier (FFD). O algoritmo split-step com correção de amplitude foi estendido para meios VTI. A migração pré e pós-empilhamento de dados sintéticos, em meios isotrópicos e anisotrópicos, confirmam o melhor tratamento das amplitudes e estabilidade dos algoritmos propostos.

An evolutionary approach to improve connectivity prediction in mobile wireless sensor networks

Connectivity is the basic factor for the proper operation of any wireless network. In a mobile wireless sensor network it is a challenge for applications and protocols to deal with connectivity problems, as links might get up and down frequently. In these scenarios, having knowledge of the node remaining connectivity time could both improve the performance of the protocols (e.g. handoff mechanisms) and save possible scarce nodes resources (CPU, bandwidth, and energy) by preventing unfruitful transmissions. The current paper provides a solution called Genetic Machine Learning Algorithm (GMLA) to forecast the remainder connectivity time in mobile environments. It consists in combining Classifier Systems with a Markov chain model of the RF link quality. The main advantage of using an evolutionary approach is that the Markov model parameters can be discovered on-the-fly, making it possible to cope with unknown environments and mobility patterns. Simulation results show that the proposal is a very suitable solution, as it overcomes the performance obtained by similar approaches.

N-Methyl-2-(1-methyl-3-phenyl­prop-2-en-1-yl­idene)hydrazinecarbo­thio­amide

In the title compound, C12H15N3S, the mol­ecule deviates slightly from planarity, with a maximum deviation from the mean plane of the non-H atoms of 0.2756 (6) Å for the S atom and a torsion angle for the N-N-C-N fragment of -7.04 (16)°. In the crystal, mol­ecules are linked by N-H...S hydrogen-bond inter­actions, forming centrosymmetric dimers. Additionally, one weak intra­molecular N-H...N hydrogen-bond inter­action is observed. The crystal packing shows a herringbone arrangement viewed along the c axis.