Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework

The paper deals with the development of a general as well as integrative and holistic framework to systematize and assess vulnerability, risk and adaptation. The framework is a thinking tool meant as a heuristic that outlines key factors and different dimensions that need to be addressed when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural hazards and climate change. The approach underlines that the key factors of such a common framework are related to the exposure of a society or system to a hazard or stressor, the susceptibility of the system or community exposed, and its resilience and adaptive capacity. Additionally, it underlines the necessity to consider key factors and multiple thematic dimensions when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural and socio-natural hazards. In this regard, it shows key linkages between the different concepts used within the disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) research. Further, it helps to illustrate the strong relationships between different concepts used in DRM and CCA. The framework is also a tool for communicating complexity and stresses the need for societal change in order to reduce risk and to promote adaptation. With regard to this, the policy relevance of the framework and first results of its application are outlined. Overall, the framework presented enhances the discussion on how to frame and link vulnerability, disaster risk, risk management and adaptation concepts.

Human Trafficking Victims and Their Children: Assessing Needs, Vulnerabilities, Strengths, and Survivorship

Given the increased awareness and attention to human trafficking, including the establishment of federal laws and policies, federally funded task forces that provide law enforcement responses, and specialized victim services, it is important to assess the impact of these procedures and services on survivors/victims of international human trafficking and their immigrant children. By federal definition, certified victims of international human trafficking are eligible for all services provided to refugees in this country, including reunification with their minor children. This research is based on a qualitative study conducted in Austin and Houston, Texas with human trafficking victims/survivors. The project’s goal was to gain an understanding of the needs of human trafficking survivors after their rescue, their overall integration into American life, and the subsequent needs of their immigrant children after reunification. The project objectives examined the factors that either promote or hinder self-sufficiency, the determination of social service needs, and policy and practice recommendations to strengthen survivors, their children and their families living both locally and abroad. For this project, nine (n = 9) in-depth interviews were conducted with adult foreign-born victims of human trafficking. Researchers gathered data using a semi-structured questionnaire that queried about factors that promote or hinder victims’ services and needs. Interviews were conducted in participants’ homes using bilingual research staff and/or trained interpreters, were digitally-recorded, and subsequently transcribed. Participation in this study was completely voluntary. Specific steps were taken to ensure that the participants’ identities were protected. Open coding of data was utilized and the data were subsequently organized or grouped into properties and later developed into contextual themes around the research questions. The findings are grounded with the use of direct quotes from participants. As a result of progressive U.S. policy, many victims of human trafficking are being reunited with their minor children. Immigrant children are one of the largest and fastest growing populations in the U.S. and for a variety of reasons are vulnerable to exploitation. Research also indicates that victims of trafficking are identified by traffickers because of their perceived “vulnerabilities” or lack of opportunities (Clark, 2003). Therefore, it is important that practices and policies are developed to address the unique needs of these families with an eye toward positive outcomes for parent and child safety and well-being. Social service providers are provided a toolkit that may be utilized before and during the reunification period.

Commentary: “Human Trafficking Victims and Their Children: Assessing Needs, Vulnerabilities, Strengths, and Survivorship"

A commentary on Busch-Armendariz, Nsonwu, and Heffron’s article, “Human Trafficking Victims and Their Children: Assessing Needs, Vulnerabilities, Strengths, and Survivorship,” noting key findings and calling for further research.

A review of dendrogeomorphological research applied to flood risk analysis in Spain

Over the last forty years, applying dendrogeomorphology to palaeoflood analysis has improved estimates of the frequency and magnitude of past floods worldwide. This paper reviews the main results obtained by applying dendrogeomorphology to flood research in several case studies in Central Spain. These dendrogeomorphological studies focused on the following topics: (1) anatomical analysis to understand the physiological response of trees to flood damage and improve sampling efficiency; (2) compiling robust flood chronologies in ungauged mountain streams, (3) determining flow depth and estimating flood discharge using two-dimensional hydraulic modelling, and comparing them with other palaeostage indicators; (4) calibrating hydraulic model parameters (i.e. Manning roughness); and (5) implementing stochastic-based, cost–benefit analysis to select optimal mitigation measures. The progress made in these areas is presented with suggestions for further research to improve the applicability of dendrogeochronology to palaeoflood studies. Further developments will include new methods for better identification of the causes of specific types of flood damage to trees (e.g. tilted trees) or stable isotope analysis of tree rings to identify the climatic conditions associated with periods of increasing flood magnitude or frequency.

Assessing the paradox between transmitted and acquired HIV-1 drug resistance in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study from 1998 to 2012.

BACKGROUND  Transmitted HIV-1 drug-resistance mutations(TDR) are transmitted from treatment-failing or treatment-naïve patients. Although prevalence of drug-resistance in treatment-failing patients has declined in developed countries, TDR prevalence has not. Mechanisms causing this paradox are poorly explored. METHODS  We included recently-infected, treatment-naïve patients with genotypic-resistance-tests performed ≤1year post-infection and <2013. Potential risk factors for TDR were analyzed using logistic regression. Association of TDR prevalences with population viral load(PVL) from treatment-patients during 1997-2011 was estimated with Poisson regression for all TDR and individually for most frequent resistance-mutations against each drug class(M184V/L90M/K103N). RESULTS  We included 2421 recently-infected, treatment-naïve patients and 5399 treatment-failing patients. TDR prevalence fluctuated considerably over time. Two opposing developments could explain these fluctuations: generally continuous increases in TDR(Odds Ratio[OR]=1.13,p=0.010), punctuated by sharp decreases when new drug-classes were introduced. Overall, TDR prevalence increased with decreasing PVL(Rate Ratio[RR]=0.91/1000Log10-PVL,p=0.033). Additionally, we observed that the transmitted high-fitness-cost mutation M184V was positively associated with PVL of treatment-failing patients carrying M184V(RR=1.50/100Log10-PVL,p<0.001). Such association was absent and negative for K103N(RR-K103N=1.00/100Log10-PVL,p=0.99) and L90M(RR-L90M=0.75/100Log10-PVL,p=0.022), respectively. CONCLUSIONS  Transmission of antiretroviral drug-resistance is temporarily reduced by the introduction of new drug classes and driven by treatment-failing and treatment-naïve patients. These findings suggest a continuous need for new drugs, early detection/treatment of HIV-1-infection.

Evaluating perspectives for PRRS virus elimination from pig dense areas with a risk factor based herd index

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) is wide-spread in pig populations globally. In many regions of Europe with intensive pig production and high herd densities, the virus is endemic and can cause disease and production losses. This fuels discussion about the feasibility and sustainability of virus elimination from larger geographic regions. The implementation of a program aiming at virus elimination for areas with high pig density is unprecedented and its potential success is unknown. The objective of this work was to approach pig population data with a simple method that could support assessing the feasibility of a sustainable regional PRRSV elimination. Based on known risk factors such as pig herd structure and neighborhood conditions, an index characterizing individual herds' potential for endemic virus circulation and reinfection was designed. This index was subsequently used to compare data of all pig herds in two regions with different pig- and herd-densities in Lower Saxony (North-West Germany) where PRRSV is endemic. Distribution of the indexed herds was displayed using GIS. Clusters of high herd index densities forming potential risk hot spots were identified which could represent key target areas for surveillance and biosecurity measures under a control program aimed at virus elimination. In an additional step, for the study region with the higher pig density (2463 pigs/km(2) farmland), the potential distribution of PRRSV-free and non-free herds during the implementation of a national control program aiming at national virus elimination was modeled. Complex herd and trade network structures suggest that PRRSV elimination in regions with intensive pig farming like that of middle Europe would have to involve legal regulation and be accompanied by important trade and animal movement restrictions. The proposed methodology of risk index mapping could be adapted to areas varying in size, herd structure and density. Interpreted in the regional context, this could help to classify the density of risk and to accordingly target resources and measures for elimination.

Clinically relevant quality measures for risk factor control in primary care: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND Assessment of the proportion of patients with well controlled cardiovascular risk factors underestimates the proportion of patients receiving high quality of care. Evaluating whether physicians respond appropriately to poor risk factor control gives a different picture of quality of care. We assessed physician response to control cardiovascular risk factors, as well as markers of potential overtreatment in Switzerland, a country with universal healthcare coverage but without systematic quality monitoring, annual report cards on quality of care or financial incentives to improve quality. METHODS We performed a retrospective cohort study of 1002 randomly selected patients aged 50-80 years from four university primary care settings in Switzerland. For hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes mellitus, we first measured proportions in control, then assessed therapy modifications among those in poor control. "Appropriate clinical action" was defined as a therapy modification or return to control without therapy modification within 12 months among patients with baseline poor control. Potential overtreatment of these conditions was defined as intensive treatment among low-risk patients with optimal target values. RESULTS 20% of patients with hypertension, 41% with dyslipidemia and 36% with diabetes mellitus were in control at baseline. When appropriate clinical action in response to poor control was integrated into measuring quality of care, 52 to 55% had appropriate quality of care. Over 12 months, therapy of 61% of patients with baseline poor control was modified for hypertension, 33% for dyslipidemia, and 85% for diabetes mellitus. Increases in number of drug classes (28-51%) and in drug doses (10-61%) were the most common therapy modifications. Patients with target organ damage and higher baseline values were more likely to have appropriate clinical action. We found low rates of potential overtreatment with 2% for hypertension, 3% for diabetes mellitus and 3-6% for dyslipidemia. CONCLUSIONS In primary care, evaluating whether physicians respond appropriately to poor risk factor control, in addition to assessing proportions in control, provide a broader view of the quality of care than relying solely on measures of proportions in control. Such measures could be more clinically relevant and acceptable to physicians than simply reporting levels of control.

Assessing the impact of multiple stressors on aquatic biota: the receptor's side matters.

Aquatic ecosystems are confronted with multiple stress factors. Current approaches to assess the risk of anthropogenic stressors to aquatic ecosystems are developed for single stressors and determine stressor effects primarily as a function of stressor properties. The cumulative impact of several stressors, however, may differ markedly from the impact of the single stressors and can result in nonlinear effects and ecological surprises. To meet the challenge of diagnosing and predicting multiple stressor impacts, assessment strategies should focus on properties of the biological receptors rather than on stressor properties. This change of paradigm is required because (i) multiple stressors affect multiple biological targets at multiple organizational levels, (ii) biological receptors differ in their sensitivities, vulnerabilities, and response dynamics to the individual stressors, and (iii) biological receptors function as networks, so that actions of stressors at disparate sites within the network can lead via indirect or cascading effects, to unexpected outcomes.

Law and science: risk assessment and risk management in the WTO agreement on the application of sanitary and phytosanitary measures

Assessing and managing risks relating to the consumption of food stuffs for humans and to the environment has been one of the most complex legal issues in WTO law, ever since the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures was adopted at the end of the Uruguay Round and entered into force in 1995. The problem was expounded in a number of cases. Panels and the Appellate Body adopted different philosophies in interpreting the agreement and the basic concept of risk assessment as defined in Annex A para. 4 of the Agreement. Risk assessment entails fundamental question on law and science. Different interpretations reflect different underlying perceptions of science and its relationship to the law. The present thesis supported by the Swiss National Research Foundation undertakes an in-depth analysis of these underlying perceptions. The author expounds the essence and differences of positivism and relativism in philosophy and natural sciences. He clarifies the relationship of fundamental concepts such as risk, hazards and probability. This investigation is a remarkable effort on the part of lawyer keen to learn more about the fundamentals based upon which the law – often unconsciously – is operated by the legal profession and the trade community. Based upon these insights, he turns to a critical assessment of jurisprudence both of panels and the Appellate Body. Extensively referring and discussing the literature, he deconstructs findings and decisions in light of implied and assumed underlying philosophies and perceptions as to the relationship of law and science, in particular in the field of food standards. Finding that both positivism and relativism does not provide adequate answers, the author turns critical rationalism and applies the methodologies of falsification developed by Karl R. Popper. Critical rationalism allows combining discourse in science and law and helps preparing the ground for a new approach to risk assessment and risk management. Linking the problem to the doctrine of multilevel governance the author develops a theory allocating risk assessment to international for a while leaving the matter of risk management to national and democratically accountable government. While the author throughout the thesis questions the possibility of separating risk assessment and risk management, the thesis offers new avenues which may assist in structuring a complex and difficult problem

Making business in the open: coping with economic and institutional risk and insecurity in the Kafue flats, Zambia

This paper deals with the difference between risk and insecurity from an anthropological perspective using a critical New Institutionalist approach. Risk refers to the ability to reduce undesirable outcomes, based on a range of information actors have on possible outcomes; insecurity refers to the lack of this information. With regard to the neo-liberal setting of a resource rich area in Zambia, Central Africa, local actors – men and women – face risk and insecurity in market constellations between rural and urban areas. They attempt to cope with risk using technical means and diversification of livelihood strategies. But as common-pool resources have been transformed from common property institutions to open access, also leading to unpredictability of competitors and partners in “free” markets, actors rely on magic options to reduce insecurity and transform it into risk-assessing strategies as an adaptation to modern times. Keywords: Risk, insecurity, institutional change, neo-liberal market, common pool resources, livelihood strategies, magic, Zambia.

Spatial variability and potential impacts of climate change on flood and debris flow hazard zone mapping and implications for risk management

The main goals of this study were to identifythe alpine torrent catchments that are sensitive to climatic changes and to assess the robustness of the methods for the elaboration of flood and debris flow hazard zone maps to specific effects of climate changes. In this study, a procedure for the identification and localization of torrent catchments in which the climate scenarios will modify the hazard situation was developed. In two case studies, the impacts of a potential increase of precipitation intensities to the delimited hazard zones were studied. The identification and localization of the torrent and river catchments, where unfavourable changes in the hazard situation occur, could eliminate speculative and unnecessary measures against the impacts of climate changes like a general enlargement of hazard zones or a general over dimensioning of protection structures for the whole territory. The results showed a high spatial variability of the sensitivity of catchments to climate changes. In sensitive catchments, the sediment management in alpine torrents will meet future challenges due to a higher rate for sediment removal from retention basins. The case studies showed a remarkable increase of the areas affected by floods and debris flow when considering possible future precipitation intensities in hazard mapping. But, the calculated increase in extent of future hazard zones lay within the uncertainty of the methods used today for the delimitation of the hazard zones. Thus, the consideration of the uncertainties laying in the methods for the elaboration of hazard zone maps in the torrent and river catchments sensitive to climate changes would provide a useful instrument for the consideration of potential future climate conditions. The study demonstrated that weak points in protection structures in future will become more important in risk management activities.

Lavage prior to vertebral augmentation reduces the risk for cement leakage

PURPOSE This study aimed at assessing the cement leakage rate and the filling pattern in patients treated with vertebroplasty, kyphoplasty and stentoplasty with and without a newly developed lavage technique. STUDY DESIGN Retrospective clinical case-control study. METHODS A newly developed bipedicular lavage technique prior to cement application was applied in 64 patients (45.1 %) with 116 vertebrae, ("lavage" group). A conventional bipedicular cement injection technique was used in 78 patients (54.9 %) with 99 levels ("controls"). The outcome measures were filling patterns and leakage rates. RESULTS The overall leakage rate (venous, cortical defect, intradiscal) was 37.9 % in the lavage and 83.8 % in the control group (p < 0.001). Venous leakage (lavage 12.9 % vs. controls 31.3 %; p = 0.001) and cortical defect leakage (lavage 17.2 % vs. controls 63.3 %; p < 0.001) were significantly lower in the lavage group compared to "controls," whereas intradiscal leakages were similar in both groups (lavage 12.1 % vs. controls 15.2 %; p = 0.51). For venous leakage multivariate logistic regression analysis showed lavage to be the only independent predictor. Lavage was associated with 0.33-times (95 % CI 0.16-0.65; p = 0.001) lower likelihood for leakage in compared to controls. CONCLUSIONS Vertebral body lavage prior to cement augmentation is a safe technique to reduce cement leakage in a clinical setting and has the potential to prevent pulmonary fat embolism. Moreover, a better filling pattern can be achieved.

Assessing the cardiology community position on transradial intervention and the use of bivalirudin in patients with acute coronary syndrome undergoing invasive management: results of an EAPCI survey

AIMS Our aim was to report on a survey initiated by the European Association of Percutaneous Cardiovascular Interventions (EAPCI) collecting the opinion of the cardiology community on the invasive management of acute coronary syndrome (ACS), before and after the MATRIX trial presentation at the American College of Cardiology (ACC) 2015 Scientific Sessions. METHODS AND RESULTS A web-based survey was distributed to all individuals registered on the EuroIntervention mailing list (n=15,200). A total of 572 and 763 physicians responded to the pre- and post-ACC survey, respectively. The radial approach emerged as the preferable access site for ACS patients undergoing invasive management with roughly every other responder interpreting the evidence for mortality benefit as definitive and calling for a guidelines upgrade to class I. The most frequently preferred anticoagulant in ACS patients remains unfractionated heparin (UFH), due to higher costs and greater perceived thrombotic risks associated with bivalirudin. However, more than a quarter of participants declared the use of bivalirudin would increase after MATRIX. CONCLUSIONS The MATRIX trial reinforced the evidence for a causal association between bleeding and mortality and triggered consensus on the superiority of the radial versus femoral approach. The belief that bivalirudin mitigates bleeding risk is common, but UFH still remains the preferred anticoagulant based on lower costs and thrombotic risks.

The Risk of Seizure After Surgery for Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND We aimed to identify a group of patients with a low risk of seizure after surgery for unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIA). OBJECTIVE To determine the risk of seizure after discharge from surgery for UIA. METHODS A consecutive prospectively collected cohort database was interrogated for all surgical UIA cases. There were 726 cases of UIA (excluding cases proximal to the superior cerebellar artery on the vertebrobasilar system) identified and analyzed. Cox proportional hazards regression models and Kaplan-Meier life table analyses were generated assessing risk factors. RESULTS Preoperative seizure history and complication of aneurysm repair were the only risk factors found to be significant. The risk of first seizure after discharge from hospital following surgery for patients with neither preoperative seizure, treated middle cerebral artery aneurysm, nor postoperative complications (leading to a modified Rankin Scale score >1) was <0.1% and 1.1% at 12 months and 7 years, respectively. The risk for those with preoperative seizures was 17.3% and 66% at 12 months and 7 years, respectively. The risk for seizures with either complications (leading to a modified Rankin Scale score >1) from surgery or treated middle cerebral artery aneurysm was 1.4% and 6.8% at 12 months and 7 years, respectively. These differences in the 3 Kaplan-Meier curves were significant (log-rank P < .001). CONCLUSION The risk of seizures after discharge from hospital following surgery for UIA is very low when there is no preexisting history of seizures. If this result can be supported by other series, guidelines that restrict returning to driving because of the risk of postoperative seizures should be reconsidered. ABBREVIATIONS MCA, middle cerebral arterymRS, modified Rankin ScaleUIA, unruptured intracranial aneurysms.

Rights at Risk: Refugees in the New South Africa

This thesis seeks to analyze the relationship between public attitudes toward refugees in a refugee receiving state and the realization of the legal rights afforded refugees (de facto rights). I hypothesize that the more negative a host culture is toward refugees, the less refugees are able to realize their rights. Conversely, the more positive a host culture is toward refugees, the more refugees are able to realize their rights. I test the hypothesis through a case study of refugee populations in Cape Town, South Africa, based on research conducted from May to June 2007. The orientation (positive or negative) of the host culture's perceptions toward a refugee group (Independent Variable) is measured through: (1) a coded content analysis of the South African media, (2) a coded content analysis of semi-structured interviews, and (3) an assessment of secondary source public opinion surveys and reports. The realization of refugee rights (Dependent Variable) is operationalized as a function of two rights: (1) the right to personal physical integrity and (2) the right to protection from unlawful detention. These rights are measured by coding (1) media reports and (2) interviews, and by (3) assessing NGO reports and secondary source public opinion surveys. My empirical data shows that the cultural orientation toward refugees is not overwhelmingly negative, and the realization of rights is not conclusively "low." However, the frequency of data coded "negative" and "low" versus "positive" or "high" suggest that South Africans regard refugees somewhat negatively and that rights are not fully realized. This finding is strengthened by the analysis of secondary sources and field notes.