Estimation of R(0) from the initial phase of an outbreak of a vector-borne infection

The magnitude of the basic reproduction ratio R(0) of an epidemic can be estimated in several ways, namely, from the final size of the epidemic, from the average age at first infection, or from the initial growth phase of the outbreak. In this paper, we discuss this last method for estimating R(0) for vector-borne infections. Implicit in these models is the assumption that there is an exponential phase of the outbreaks, which implies that in all cases R(0) > 1. We demonstrate that an outbreak is possible, even in cases where R(0) is less than one, provided that the vector-to-human component of R(0) is greater than one and that a certain number of infected vectors are introduced into the affected population. This theory is applied to two real epidemiological dengue situations in the southeastern part of Brazil, one where R(0) is less than one, and other one where R(0) is greater than one. In both cases, the model mirrors the real situations with reasonable accuracy.

A Comparison of the Home Range Sizes of Mainland and Island Populations of Black-Faced Lion Tamarins (Leontopithecus caissara) Using Different Spatial Analysis

The critically endangered black-faced lion tamarin, Leontopithecus caissara, has a restricted geographical distribution consisting of small mainland and island populations, each with distinct habitats in coastal southeastern Brazil. Necessary conservation management actions require an assessment of whether differences in habitats are reflected in use of space by the species. We studied two tamarin groups on the mainland at Sao Paulo state between August 2005 and March 2007, and compared the results with data from Superagui Island. Three home range estimators were used: minimum convex polygon (MCP), Kernel, and the new technique presented dissolved monthly polygons (DMP). These resulted, respectively, in home ranges of 345, 297, and 282 ha for the 12-month duration of the study. Spatial overlap of mainland groups was extensive, whereas temporal overlap was not, a pattern that indicates resource partitioning is an important strategy to avoid intraspecific competition. L. caissara large home ranges seem to be dynamic, with constant incorporation of new areas and abandonment of others through time. The main difference between mainland and island groups is the amount and variety of sleeping sites. A better understanding of the home range sizes, day range lengths, and territorial behavior of this species will aid in developing better management strategies for its protection. Additionally, the presented DMP protocol is a useful improvement over the MCP method as it results in more realistic home range sizes for wildlife species. Am. J. Primatol. 73: 1114-1126, 2011. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

HOME RANGE AND SPATIAL ORGANIZATION OF MANED WOLVES IN THE BRAZILIAN GRASSLANDS

The maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus) is the largest canid in South America, weighing up to 30 kg, and exhibits an omnivorous diet based on fruits and small vertebrates. Maned wolves are considered to live in monogamous pairs defending a common territory, with mates living a largely solitary life, but these conclusions come from few studies with small samples. We captured maned wolves in Emas National Park, central Brazil, and monitored their use of space using radiotelemetry. Home-range size and overlap of 45 adults, and interactions between members of 5 pairs, were investigated. Home-range sizes of resident adults averaged 80.18 km(2) using the fixed kernel with 95% of the locations, and averaged 13.78 km(2) with 50% of the locations. Overlap of 95% ranges between male-male, female-female, or mixed dyads was similar, approximately 0.20, whereas 50% ranges of maned wolves showed less overlap overall but more tolerance for overlap with the opposite sex. Members of a pair were located alone more often than together, and even when located simultaneously maintained a mean distance of >0.5 km apart, independent of time of day. Results are in agreement with a spatial organization based on monogamous mating pairs with little intrapair sociality, but the latter needs to be investigated in more detail.

Cervical range of motion discriminates between asymptomatic persons and those with whiplash

Study Design. A comparative study of cervical range of motion in asymptomatic persons and those with whiplash. Objectives. To compare the primary and conjunct ranges of motion of the cervical spine in asymptomatic persons and those with persistent whiplash-associated disorders, and to investigate the ability of these measures of range of motion to discriminate between the groups. Summary of Background. Evidence that range of motion is an effective indicator of physical impairment in the cervical spine is not conclusive. Few studies have evaluated the ability to discriminate between asymptomatic persons and those with whiplash on the basis of range of motion or compared three-dimensional in vivo measures of range of motion in asymptomatic persons and those with whiplash-associated disorders. Methods. The study participants were 89 asymptomatic volunteers (41 men, 48 women; mean age 39.2 years) and 114 patients with persistent whiplash-associated disorders (22 men, 93 women; mean age 37.2 years) referred to a whiplash research unit for assessment of their cervical region. Range of cervical motion was measured in three dimensions with a computerized, electromagnetic, motion-tracking device. The movements assessed were flexion, extension, left and right lateral flexion, and left and right rotation. Results. Range of motion was reduced in all primary movements in patients with persistent whiplash-associated disorder. Sagittal plane movements were proportionally the most affected. On the basis of primary and conjunct range of motion, age, and gender, 90.3% of study participants could be correctly categorized as asymptomatic or as having whiplash (sensitivity 86.2%, specificity 95.3%). Conclusions. Range of motion was capable of discriminating between asymptomatic persons and those with persistent whiplash-associated disorders.

A dynamic model with on-line identification for rotary sugar drying processes

A dynamic modelling methodology, which combines on-line variable estimation and parameter identification with physical laws to form an adaptive model for rotary sugar drying processes, is developed in this paper. In contrast to the conventional rate-based models using empirical transfer coefficients, the heat and mass transfer rates are estimated by using on-line measurements in the new model. Furthermore, a set of improved sectional solid transport equations with localized parameters is developed in this work to reidentified on-line using measurement data, the model is able to closely track the dynamic behaviour of rotary drying processes within a broad range of operational conditions. This adaptive model is validated against experimental data obtained from a pilot-scale rotary sugar dryer. The proposed modelling methodology can be easily incorporated into nonlinear model based control schemes to form a unified modelling and control framework.place the global correlation for the computation of solid retention time. Since a number of key model variables and parameters are identified on-line using measurement data, the model is able to closely track the dynamic behaviour of rotary drying processes within a broad range of operational conditions. This adaptive model is validated against experimental data obtained from a pilot-scale rotary sugar dryer. The proposed modelling methodology can be easily incorporated into nonlinear model based control schemes to form a unified modelling and control framework.

Estimation of body water compartments in cirrhosis by multiple-frequency bioelectrical-impedance analysis

Estimation of total body water by measuring bioelectrical impedance at a fixed frequency of 50 kHz is useful in assessing body composition in healthy populations. However, in cirrhosis, the distribution of total body water between the extracellular and intracellular compartments is of greater clinical importance. We report an evaluation of a new multiple-frequency bioelectrical-impedance analysis technique (MFBIA) that may quantify the distribution of total body water in cirrhosis. In 21 cirrhotic patients and 21 healthy control subjects, impedance to the Row of current was measured at frequencies ranging from 4 to 1012 kHz. These measurements were used to estimate body water compartments and then compared with total body water and extracellular water determined by isotope methodology. In cirrhotic patients, extracellular water and total body water (as determined by isotope methods) were well predicted by MFBIA (r = 0.73 and 0.89, respectively).;However, the 95% confidence intervals of the limits of agreement between MFBIA and the isotope methods were +/- 14% and +/-9% for cirrhotics (extracellular water and total body water, respectively) and +/-9% and +/-9% for cirrhotics without ascites. The 95% confidence intervals estimated from the control group were +/-10% and +/-5% for extracellular water and total body water, respectively. Thus, despite strong correlations between MFBIA and isotope measurements, the relatively large limits of agreement with accepted techniques suggest that the MFBIA technique requires further refinement before it can be routinely used to determine the nutritional assessment of individual cirrhotic patients. Nutrition 2001,17.31-34. (C)Elsevier Science Inc. 2001.

Free-radical bulk polymerization of styrene: ESR and near-infrared spectroscopic study of the entire conversion range

The free radical polymerization of styrene in bulk was monitored by ESR and FT near-infrared spectroscopy at 70°C for a series of concentrations of the initiator, dimethyl 2,2′-azobis(isobutyrate). In order to obtain detailed kinetic information over the intire conversion range, and the gel effect range in particular, conversion and free radical concentration data points were accumulated with exceptionally short time intervals. The polystyrene radical concentration ([St•]) went through a sharp maximum at the gel effect, a feature that has hitherto escaped observation due to the rapid concentration changes in the gel effect range relative to the data point time intervals of previous studies. Temperature measurements throughout the polymerization were employed to calculate that a temperature increase was not the cause of the [St•] maximum, which thus appeares to be a genuine feature of the gel effect of this system under isothermal conditions. The propagation rate constant (kp) as a function of monomer conversion exhibited a marked dependence on initiator concentration at high monomer conversion; the sharp decrease in kp with increasing conversion was shifted to higher conversions with increasing initiator concentration.

Generation of eigenstates using the phase-estimation algorithm

The phase estimation algorithm is so named because it allows an estimation of the eigenvalues associated with an operator. However, it has been proposed that the algorithm can also be used to generate eigenstates. Here we extend this proposal for small quantum systems, identifying the conditions under which the phase-estimation algorithm can successfully generate eigenstates. We then propose an implementation scheme based on an ion trap quantum computer. This scheme allows us to illustrate two simple examples, one in which the algorithm effectively generates eigenstates, and one in which it does not.

Optimal input states and feedback for interferometric phase estimation

We derive optimal N-photon two-mode input states for interferometric phase measurements. Under canonical measurements the phase variance scales as N-2 for these states, as compared to N-1 or N-1/2 for states considered bq previous authors. We prove, that it is not possible to realize the canonical measurement by counting photons in the outputs of the interferometer, even if an adjustable auxiliary phase shift is allowed in the interferometer. However. we introduce a feedback algorithm based on Bayesian inference to control this auxiliary phase shift. This makes the measurement close to a canonical one, with a phase variance scaling slightly above N-2. With no feedback, the best result (given that the phase to be measured is completely unknown) is a scaling of N-1. For optimal input states having up to four photons, our feedback scheme is the best possible one, but for higher photon numbers more complicated schemes perform marginally better.

Demography of bridled nailtail wallabies translocated to the edge of their former range from captive and wild stock

Despite numerous, generally unsuccessful attempts to reintroduce threatened Australian mammals, the factors leading to their failure have not been fully clarified, although predator control would appear to be of paramount importance. An experimental approach was taken in attempting to establish a population of bridled nailtail wallabies ih an area of apparently suitable habitat and low fox density, but on the edge of the species' former range. The 133 wallabies released since late 1996 comprised four groups captive-bred animals, wild caught from the single remaining wild population, animals that were captive bred and acclimatised at the translocation site in a 10 ha predator-proof enclosure, and animals which had been bred in the enclosure. Survival was highest in those bred in the enclosure and highly variable among captive-bred animals. Survival estimates for wild recruits suggested the population would maintain a positive rate of increase under prevailing environmental conditions. Spotlighting surveys suggested the population had increased to approximately 400 animals by late 1999. Above average rainfall during 1996-1999 and no apparent predation suggests caution in describing the translocation as a success. Ongoing monitoring is critical, because it A uncertain ho v the population will cope with drought and inevitable predation events, and whether the population will expand and persist outside of limited preferred habitat. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.