An Assessment Of The Economic Impact Of Climate Change On The Transportation Sector In Montserrat

.--I. Introduction.--II. Literature review regarding climate change impacts on international transportation.--III. Economy of the Caribbean subregion and Monserrat.--IV. The international transportaion system in the Caribbean and in Monserrat.--V. Vulnerabilities of international transport system in Monserrat to climate change.--VI. Modelling.-- VII. Economic impact analysis of climate chage on the international transport.-- VIII. Approaches to mitigation and adaptation in the air and sea transportation sectors.-- IX. Conclusions

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the British Virgin Islands

Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty reduction, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of the British Virgin Islands (BVI). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations of possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation. A multi-pronged approach is employed in valuing the marine and coastal sector. Direct use and indirect use values are estimated. The amount of economic activity an ecosystem service generates in the local economy underpins estimation of direct use values. Tourism and fisheries are valued using the framework developed by the World Resources Institute. Biodiversity is valued in terms of the ecological functions it provides, such as climate regulation, shoreline protection, water supply erosion control and sediment retention, and biological control, among others. Estimates of future losses to the coastal zone from climate change are determined by considering: (1) the effect of sea level rise on coastal lands; and (2) the effect of a rise in sea surface temperature (SST) on coastal waters. Discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4% are employed to analyse all loss estimates in present value terms. The overall value for the coastal and marine sector is USD $1,606 million (mn). This is almost 2% larger than BVI’s 2008 GDP. Tourism and recreation comprise almost two-thirds of the value of the sector. By 2100, the effects of climate change on coastal lands are projected to be $3,988.6 mn, and $2,832.9 mn under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. In present value terms, if A2 occurs, losses range from $108.1-$1,596.8 mn and if B2 occurs, losses range from $74.1-$1,094.1 mn, depending on the discount rate used. Estimated costs of a rise in SST in 2050 indicate that they vary between $1,178.0 and $1,884.8 mn. Assuming a discount rate of 4%, losses range from $226.6 mn for the B2 scenario to $363.0 mn for the A2 scenario. If a discount rate of 1% is assumed, estimated losses are much greater, ranging from $775.6-$1,241.0 mn. Factoring in projected climate change impacts, the net value of the coastal and marine sector suggests that the costs of climate change significantly reduce the value of the sector, particularly under the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios for discount rates of 1% and 2%. In contrast, the sector has a large, positive, though declining trajectory, for all years when a 4% discount rate is employed. Since the BVI emits minimal greenhouse gases, but will be greatly affected by climate change, the report focuses on adaptation as opposed to mitigation strategies. The options shortlisted are: (1) enhancing monitoring of all coastal waters to provide early warning alerts of bleaching and other marine events; (2) introducing artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) introducing alternative tourist attractions; (4) providing retraining for displaced tourism workers; and (5) revising policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities. All adaptation options considered are quite justifiable in national terms; each had benefit-cost ratios greater than 1.

The tourism sector and the global economic crisis: development implicatins for the Caribbean

Over the past two years the global economy has experienced substantial economic turmoil, resulting in severe economic contraction. While there has been a recent return to growth, this situation has impacted all economic sectors worldwide. In the highly tourism-dependent region of the Caribbean, the impact of the global economic crisis has been most notable on the tourism sector, which, from the early 1990s, became the key driver of economic growth for the region. The eventual emergence of this sector reflects an economic development history which was previously underpinned by the export of agricultural commodities, and subsequently by the adoption of the import substitution industrialization model as promulgated by Arthur Lewis. This was further stimulated by spectacular economic contraction in Caribbean economies during the 1980s as a result of changes in the global terms of trade for commodities, generally low levels of competitiveness for manufactured goods, as well as weak institutional and governance frameworks. Ultimately, many economies began to reflect fiscal and balance of payments constraints. By the end of the 1990s, too, evidence of declining competitiveness even in the tourism sector began to become apparent particularly when evaluated under the framework of the Butler Tourism Area Life- Cycle (TALC) model. The recent economic crisis, therefore, provides an opportunity to reflect on the overall approach to economic development in the Caribbean, and to assess the implications of the region’s response to the crisis. This analysis makes the case for the future development of the sector to be based on two broad strategies. The first is to deepen the integration of the tourism sector into the broader economy through the diversification of the regional tourism product, as well as the enhancement of linkages with other sectors, while the second is to expand the tourism sector into a total service economy through the introduction of new services. Considering linkages, the development of clusters and value chains to support the tourism sector is identified with respect to agriculture and food, handicraft, and furnishings. Among the new services identified are education, wellness, yachting and boating, financial services, and information and communications technologies (ICT). This overall strategy is deemed to be better suited to the macroeconomic realities of the Caribbean, where high labour costs and other structural rigidities require a high-valued specialty tourism product in order to sustain the sector’s global competitiveness.

Logistics and mobility policies for sustainable development and regional integration: conceptual framework and regional experiences

This FAL Bulletin summarizes the main findings and proposals contained in the document “Políticas de logística y movilidad para el desarrollo sostenible y la integración regional”, recently published by the Natural Resources and Infrastructure Division (NRID), ECLAC. It contains a proposal for a paradigm shift in the formulation of national logistics and mobility policies, with common guidelines for Latin American and Caribbean countries.

Interaction between GIS and hydrologic model: a preliminary approach using ArcHydro Framework Data Model

In different regions of Brazil, population growth and economic development can degrade water quality, compromising watershed health and human supply. Because of its ability to combine spatial and temporal data in the same environment and to create water resources management (WRM) models, the Geographical Information System (GIS) is a powerful tool for managing water resources, preventing floods and estimating water supply. This paper discusses the integration between GIS and hydrological models and presents a case study relating to the upper section of the Paraíba do Sul Basin (Sao Paulo State portion), situated in the Southeast of Brazil. The case study presented in this paper has a database suitable for the basin's dimensions, including digitized topographic maps at a 50,000 scale. From an ArcGIS®/ArcHydro Framework Data Model, a geometric network was created to produce different raster products. This first grid derived from the digital elevation model grid (DEM) is the flow direction map followed by flow accumulation, stream and catchment maps. The next steps in this research are to include the different multipurpose reservoirs situated along the Paraíba do Sul River and to incorporate rainfall time series data in ArcHydro to build a hydrologic data model within a GIS environment in order to produce a comprehensive spatial-temporal model.

Bank efficiency in Brazil: the importance for economic sustainability

Studies on efficiency achieved greater relevance in organisations within an open market framework, which in Brazil began around 1990. The objective of this paper, applying the data envelopment analysis methodology, is to analyse the efficiency of banks operating in the country using the database termed 'the biggest banks', periodically divulged by the Central Bank of Brazil in 2010-2012. The methodology was applied to the 26 largest banking organisations via two approaches, one was financial intermediation and the other was results. In the financial intermediation approach, the efficiency increase was the highest among banks specialised in credit from 2010 to 2012. Retail banks, especially the large ones, felt most intensely the reaction of 2011, a year considered as the sector's low performance year. In the results approach, the efficiency increase was higher among retail banks. Factors such as retractions in the SELIC rate and bank spreads impacted all banks, regardless of the segment.

From Potential to Implementation: an innovation framework to realize the benefits of soil carbon

This chapter addresses the mismatch between existing knowledge, techniques and management methods for improved soil carbon management and deficits in its implementation. The paper gives a short overview of the evolution of the concept of soil carbon, which illustrates the interactions between scientific, industrial, technical, societal and economic change. It then goes on to show that sufficient techniques are available for the large-scale implementation of soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. A subsequent analysis of the bottlenecks that prevent implementation identifies where issues need to be addressed in order to enable robust, integrated and sustainable SOC management strategies.

Intangible resources and organization capital: measurement and economic evaluation

Intangible resources have raised the interests of scholars from different research areas due to their importance as crucial factors for firm performance; yet, contributions to this field still lack a theoretical framework. This research analyses the state-of-the-art results reached in the literature concerning intangibles, their main features and evaluation problems and models. In search for a possible theoretical framework, the research draws a kind of indirect analysis of intangibles through the theories of the firm, their critic and developments. The heterodox approaches of the evolutionary theory and resource-based view are indicated as possible frameworks. Based on this theoretical analysis, organization capital (OC) is identified, for its features, as the most important intangible for firm performance. Empirical studies on the relationship intangibles-firm performance have been sporadic and have failed to reach firm conclusions with respect to OC; in the attempt to fill this gap, the effect of OC is tested on a large sample of European firms using the Compustat Global database. OC is proxied by capitalizing an income statement item (Selling, General and Administrative expenses) that includes expenses linked to information technology, business process design, reputation enhancement and employee training. This measure of OC is employed in a cross-sectional estimation of a firm level production function - modeled with different functional specifications (Cobb-Douglas and Translog) - that measures OC contribution to firm output and profitability. Results are robust and confirm the importance of OC for firm performance.

International Agricultural Trade under Regulatory Asymmetry: An Economic Analysis of SME Export Behavior

Over the last three decades, international agricultural trade has grown significantly. Technological advances in transportation logistics and storage have created opportunities to ship anything almost anywhere. Bilateral and multilateral trade agreements have also opened new pathways to an increasingly global market place. Yet, international agricultural trade is often constrained by differences in regulatory regimes. The impact of “regulatory asymmetry” is particularly acute for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) that lack resources and expertise to successfully operate in markets that have substantially different regulatory structures. As governments seek to encourage the development of SMEs, policy makers often confront the critical question of what ultimately motivates SME export behavior. Specifically, there is considerable interest in understanding how SMEs confront the challenges of regulatory asymmetry. Neoclassical models of the firm generally emphasize expected profit maximization under uncertainty, however these approaches do not adequately explain the entrepreneurial decision under regulatory asymmetry. Behavioral theories of the firm offer a far richer understanding of decision making by taking into account aspirations and adaptive performance in risky environments. This paper develops an analytical framework for decision making of a single agent. Considering risk, uncertainty and opportunity cost, the analysis focuses on the export behavior response of an SME in a situation of regulatory asymmetry. Drawing on the experience of fruit processor in Muzaffarpur, India, who must consider different regulatory environments when shipping fruit treated with sulfur dioxide, the study dissects the firm-level decision using @Risk, a Monte Carlo computational tool.

Banking Regulation in Turkey and Russia: An Economic Analysis

The importance of the banks and financial markets relies on the fact that they promote economic efficiency by allocating savings efficiently to profitable investment opportunities.An efficient banking system is a key determinant for the financial stability.The theory of market failure forms the basis for understanding financial regulation.Following the detrimental economic and financial consequences in theaftermath of the crisis, academics and policymakers started to focus their attention on the construction of an appropriate regulatory and supervisory framework of the banking sector. This dissertation aims at understanding the impact of regulations and supervision on banks’ performance focusing on two emerging market economies, Turkey and Russia. It aims at examining the way in which regulations matter for financial stability and banking performance from a law & economics perspective. A review of the theory of banking regulation, particularly as applied to emerging economies, shows that the efficiency of certain solutions regarding banking regulation is open to debate. Therefore, in the context of emerging countries, whether a certain approach is efficient or not will be presented as an empirical question to which this dissertation will try to find an answer.

A regional environmental accounting matrix and integrated environmental economic analyses to support regional planning

This research deals with the deepening and use of an environmental accounting matrix in Emilia-Romagna, RAMEA air emissions (regional NAMEA), carried out by the Regional Environment Agency (Arpa) in an European project. After a depiction of the international context regarding the widespread needing to integrate economic indicators and go beyond conventional reporting system, this study explains the structure, update and development of the tool. The overall aim is to outline the matrix for environmental assessments of regional plans, draw up sustainable reports and monitor effects of regional policies in a sustainable development perspective. The work focused on an application of a Shift-Share model, on the integration with eco-taxes, industrial waste production, energy consumptions, on applications of the extended RAMEA as a policy tool, following Eurostat guidelines. The common thread is the eco-efficiency (economic-environmental efficiency) index. The first part, in English, treats the methodology used to build a more complete tool; in the second part RAMEA has been applied on two regional case studies, in Italian, to support decision makers regarding Strategic Environmental Assessments’ processes (2001/42/EC). The aim is to support an evidence-based policy making by integrating sustainable development concerns at all levels. The first case study regards integrated environmental-economic analyses in support to the SEA of the Regional Waste management plan. For the industrial waste production an extended and updated RAMEA has been developed as a useful policy tool, to help in analysing and monitoring the state of environmental-economic performances. The second case study deals with the environmental report for the SEA of the Regional Program concerning productive activities. RAMEA has been applied aiming to an integrated environmental-economic analysis of the context, to investigate the performances of the regional production chains and to depict and monitor the area where the program should be carried out, from an integrated environmental-economic perspective.

Modeling the spatial dynamics of economic models

The advances that have been characterizing spatial econometrics in recent years are mostly theoretical and have not found an extensive empirical application yet. In this work we aim at supplying a review of the main tools of spatial econometrics and to show an empirical application for one of the most recently introduced estimators. Despite the numerous alternatives that the econometric theory provides for the treatment of spatial (and spatiotemporal) data, empirical analyses are still limited by the lack of availability of the correspondent routines in statistical and econometric software. Spatiotemporal modeling represents one of the most recent developments in spatial econometric theory and the finite sample properties of the estimators that have been proposed are currently being tested in the literature. We provide a comparison between some estimators (a quasi-maximum likelihood, QML, estimator and some GMM-type estimators) for a fixed effects dynamic panel data model under certain conditions, by means of a Monte Carlo simulation analysis. We focus on different settings, which are characterized either by fully stable or quasi-unit root series. We also investigate the extent of the bias that is caused by a non-spatial estimation of a model when the data are characterized by different degrees of spatial dependence. Finally, we provide an empirical application of a QML estimator for a time-space dynamic model which includes a temporal, a spatial and a spatiotemporal lag of the dependent variable. This is done by choosing a relevant and prolific field of analysis, in which spatial econometrics has only found limited space so far, in order to explore the value-added of considering the spatial dimension of the data. In particular, we study the determinants of cropland value in Midwestern U.S.A. in the years 1971-2009, by taking the present value model (PVM) as the theoretical framework of analysis.

Financial Development and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Albania

The main objective of this thesis is to explore the short and long run causality patterns in the finance – growth nexus and finance-growth-trade nexus before and after the global financial crisis, in the case of Albania. To this end we use quarterly data on real GDP, 13 proxy measures for financial development and the trade openness indicator for the period 1998Q1 – 2013Q2 and 1998Q1-2008Q3. Causality patterns will be explored in a VAR-VECM framework. For this purpose we will proceed as follows: (i) testing for the integration order of the variables; (ii) cointegration analysis and (iii) performing Granger causality tests in a VAR-VECM framework. In the finance-growth nexus, empirical evidence suggests for a positive long run relationship between finance and economic growth, with causality running from financial development to economic growth. The global financial crisis seems to have not affected the causality direction in the finance and growth nexus, thus supporting the finance led growth hypothesis in the long run in the case of Albania. In the finance-growth-trade openness nexus, we found evidence for a positive long run relationship the variables, with causality direction depending on the proxy used for financial development. When the pre-crisis sample is considered, we find evidence for causality running from financial development and trade openness to economic growth. The global financial crisis seems to have affected somewhat the causality direction in the finance-growth-trade nexus, which has become sensible to the proxy used for financial development. On the short run, empirical evidence suggests for a clear unidirectional relationship between finance and growth, with causality mostly running from economic growth to financial development. When we consider the per-crisis sub sample results are mixed, depending on the proxy used for financial development. The same results are confirmed when trade openness is taken into account.

Assessment of the population structure and temporal changes in spatial dynamics and genetic characteristics of the Atlantic bluefin tuna under a fishery independent framework.

As a large and long-lived species with high economic value, restricted spawning areas and short spawning periods, the Atlantic bluefin tuna (BFT; Thunnus thynnus) is particularly susceptible to over-exploitation. Although BFT have been targeted by fisheries in the Mediterranean Sea for thousands of years, it has only been in these last decades that the exploitation rate has reached far beyond sustainable levels. An understanding of the population structure, spatial dynamics, exploitation rates and the environmental variables that affect BFT is crucial for the conservation of the species. The aims of this PhD project were 1) to assess the accuracy of larval identification methods, 2) determine the genetic structure of modern BFT populations, 3) assess the self-recruitment rate in the Gulf of Mexico and Mediterranean spawning areas, 4) estimate the immigration rate of BFT to feeding aggregations from the various spawning areas, and 5) develop tools capable of investigating the temporal stability of population structuring in the Mediterranean Sea. Several weaknesses in modern morphology-based taxonomy including demographic decline of expert taxonomists, flawed identification keys, reluctance of the taxonomic community to embrace advances in digital communications and a general scarcity of modern user-friendly materials are reviewed. Barcoding of scombrid larvae revealed important differences in the accuracy of the taxonomic identifications carried out by different ichthyoplanktologists following morphology-based methods. Using a Genotyping-by-Sequencing a panel of 95 SNPs was developed and used to characterize the population structuring of BFT and composition of adult feeding aggregations. Using novel molecular techniques, DNA was extracted from bluefin tuna vertebrae excavated from late iron age, ancient roman settlements Byzantine-era Constantinople and a 20th century collection. A second panel of 96 SNPs was developed to genotype historical and modern samples in order to elucidate changes in population structuring and allele frequencies of loci associated with selective traits.