Science-policy in environmental and health risk assessment: if we cannot do without, can we do better?

How can empirical evidence of adverse effects from exposure to noxious agents, which is often incomplete and uncertain, be used most appropriately to protect human health? We examine several important questions on the best uses of empirical evidence in regulatory risk management decision-making raised by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s science-policy concerning uncertainty and variability in human health risk assessment. In our view, the US EPA (and other agencies that have adopted similar views of risk management) can often improve decision-making by decreasing reliance on default values and assumptions, particularly when causation is uncertain. This can be achieved by more fully exploiting decision-theoretic methods and criteria that explicitly account for uncertain, possibly conflicting scientific beliefs and that can be fully studied by advocates and adversaries of a policy choice, in administrative decision-making involving risk assessment. The substitution of decision-theoretic frameworks for default assumption-driven policies also allows stakeholder attitudes toward risk to be incorporated into policy debates, so that the public and risk managers can more explicitly identify the roles of risk-aversion or other attitudes toward risk and uncertainty in policy recommendations. Decision theory provides a sound scientific way explicitly to account for new knowledge and its effects on eventual policy choices. Although these improvements can complicate regulatory analyses, simplifying default assumptions can create substantial costs to society and can prematurely cut off consideration of new scientific insights (e.g., possible beneficial health effects from exposure to sufficiently low 'hormetic' doses of some agents). In many cases, the administrative burden of applying decision-analytic methods is likely to be more than offset by improved effectiveness of regulations in achieving desired goals. Because many foreign jurisdictions adopt US EPA reasoning and methods of risk analysis, it may be especially valuable to incorporate decision-theoretic principles that transcend local differences among jurisdictions.

Identification of success and failure factors for technology transfer in biotechnology: case studies and surveys from Academic Sinica in Taiwan

Academia Sinica is the leading research institute in Taiwan founded in 1928. Its Office of Technology Transfer (OTT) was established in 1998. It made great efforts to dramatically turn around the technology transfer activity of Academia Sinica, especially in biotechnology. Academia Sinica has more than 80 cases of experience in biotechnology transfer with companies in Taiwanese industry in the past five years. The purpose of this study is to identify potential success and failure factors for biotechnology transfer in Taiwan. Eight cases were studied through in-depth interview. The results of the analysis were used to design two surveys to further investigate 81 cases (48 successful and 33 failure cases) of biotechnology transfer in Academia Sinica from 1999–2003. The results indicated that 10 of the 14 success factors were cited in more than 40% of the cases as contributing to the success of technology transfer. By contrast, only 5 out of 16 key factors were present in more than 30% of the failure cases.

The problematic metagovernance of networks: Water reform in New South Wales

This paper argues that we need to bring government back into discussions about network governance, via the concept of metagovernance which uses water reform in an Australian state as an example. Metagovernance is defined as the government of governance, and is a vital but under researched and under theorised problem because it is difficult and contentious. The paper identifies a range of metagovernance failures in this case and suggests that the lessons learnt by the Australian authorities from the experience have led to some rethinking about the benefits and desirable scope of network governance.

The Populist Message of Australian Country Music

Australian country music is influenced by American country music and Australian bush ballads. This music idealises genuine true blue inhabitants of an idealised rural heartland and fuses nationalism with agrarian mythology. The lyrics of a number of country songs contain a populist political message, which is frequently nationalistic but is a form of nationalism.

No more free beer tomorrow? Economic policy and outcomes in Australia and New Zealand since 1984

There are no controlled experiments in macroeconomic policy, nor in systematic programs of microeconomic reform, but a comparison between New Zealand and Australia over the period since 1984 provides as close an approach to such an experiment as is ever likely to be possible. From quite similar starting points the two countries pursued liberal reform programs that differed sharply, mainly as a result of exogenous differences in constitutional structures and the personal styles of the central actors. Australia followed a more cautious, piecemeal, consensus-based approach, whereas New Zealand, in contrast, adopted a radical, rapid, 'purist' platform. The NZ reform package was generally seen by contemporary commentators as representing a 'textbook' model for best practice reform. However, Australia since 1984 has performed much better than New Zealand, whose per capita GDP growth indeed ranked at or near the bottom of the OECD. In this paper, we assess a variety of explanations for the divergences in policies and outcomes.

Termination of real-time programs: Definitely, definitely not, or maybe

Real-time control programs are often used in contexts where (conceptually) they run forever. Repetitions within such programs (or their specifications) may either (i) be guaranteed to terminate, (ii) be guaranteed to never terminate (loop forever), or (iii) may possibly terminate. In dealing with real-time programs and their specifications, we need to be able to represent these possibilities, and define suitable refinement orderings. A refinement ordering based on Dijkstra's weakest precondition only copes with the first alternative. Weakest liberal preconditions allow one to constrain behaviour provided the program terminates, which copes with the third alternative to some extent. However, neither of these handles the case when a program does not terminate. To handle this case a refinement ordering based on relational semantics can be used. In this paper we explore these issues and the definition of loops for real-time programs as well as corresponding refinement laws.