Performance profiling for predictive train schedules

In this article an alternate sensitivity analysis is proposed for train schedules. It characterises the schedules robustness or lack thereof and provides unique profiles of performance for different sources of delay and for different values of delay. An approach like this is necessary because train schedules are only a prediction of what will actually happen. They can perform poorly with respect to a variety of performance metrics, when deviations and other delays occur, if for instance they can even be implemented, and as originally intended. The information provided by this analytical approach is beneficial because it can be used as part of a proactive scheduling approach to alter a schedule in advance or to identify suitable courses of action for specific “bad behaviour”. Furthermore this information may be used to quantify the cost of delay. The effect of sectional running time (SRT) deviations and additional dwell time in particular were quantified for three railway schedule performance measures. The key features of this approach were demonstrated in a case study.

Mathematical modelling of intramembranous bone formation during fracture healing

During fracture healing, many complex and cryptic interactions occur between cells and bio-chemical molecules to bring about repair of damaged bone. In this thesis two mathematical models were developed, concerning the cellular differentiation of osteoblasts (bone forming cells) and the mineralisation of new bone tissue, allowing new insights into these processes. These models were mathematically analysed and simulated numerically, yielding results consistent with experimental data and highlighting the underlying pattern formation structure in these aspects of fracture healing.

A sensitivity analysis of train speed and its effect on railway capacity

Increasing train speeds is conceptually a simple and straight forward method to expand railway capacity, for example in comparison to other more extensive and elaborate alternatives. In this article an analytical capacity model has been investigated as a means of performing a sensitivity analysis of train speeds. The results of this sensitivity analysis can help improve the operation of this railway system and to help it cope with additional demands in the future. To test our approach a case study of the Rah Ahane Iran (RAI) national railway network has been selected. The absolute capacity levels for this railway network have been determined and the analysis shows that increasing trains speeds may not be entirely cost effective in all circumstances.

Multiphase porous media model for heat and mass transfer during drying of agricultural products

Modelling of food processing is complex because it involves sophisticated material and transport phenomena. Most of the agricultural products such fruits and vegetables are hygroscopic porous media containing free water, bound water, gas and solid matrix. Considering all phase in modelling is still not developed. In this article, a comprehensive porous media model for drying has been developed considering bound water, free water separately, as well as water vapour and air. Free water transport was considered as diffusion, pressure driven and evaporation. Bound water assumed to be converted to free water due to concentration difference and also can diffuse. Binary diffusion between water vapour and air was considered. Since, the model is fundamental physics based it can be applied to any drying applications and other food processing where heat and mass transfer takes place in porous media with significant evaporation and other phase change.

Stefan problems for melting nanoscaled particles

Under certain conditions, the mathematical models governing the melting of nano-sized particles predict unphysical results, which suggests these models are incomplete. This thesis studies the addition of different physical effects to these models, using analytic and numerical techniques to obtain realistic and meaningful results. In particular, the mathematical "blow-up" of solutions to ill-posed Stefan problems is examined, and the regularisation of this blow-up via kinetic undercooling. Other effects such as surface tension, density change and size-dependent latent heat of fusion are also analysed.

A Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network framework for passenger facilitation modelling

This paper presents a novel framework for the modelling of passenger facilitation in a complex environment. The research is motivated by the challenges in the airport complex system, where there are multiple stakeholders, differing operational objectives and complex interactions and interdependencies between different parts of the airport system. Traditional methods for airport terminal modelling do not explicitly address the need for understanding causal relationships in a dynamic environment. Additionally, existing Bayesian Network (BN) models, which provide a means for capturing causal relationships, only present a static snapshot of a system. A method to integrate a BN complex systems model with stochastic queuing theory is developed based on the properties of the Poisson and exponential distributions. The resultant Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) framework enables the simulation of arbitrary factors, their relationships, and their effects on passenger flow and vice versa. A case study implementation of the framework is demonstrated on the inbound passenger facilitation process at Brisbane International Airport. The predicted outputs of the model, in terms of cumulative passenger flow at intermediary and end points in the inbound process, are found to have an R2 goodness of fit of 0.9994 and 0.9982 respectively over a 10 h test period. The utility of the framework is demonstrated on a number of usage scenarios including causal analysis and ‘what-if’ analysis. This framework provides the ability to analyse and simulate a dynamic complex system, and can be applied to other socio-technical systems such as hospitals.

A framework for model integration and holistic modelling of socio-technical systems

This paper presents a layered framework for the purposes of integrating different Socio-Technical Systems (STS) models and perspectives into a whole-of-systems model. Holistic modelling plays a critical role in the engineering of STS due to the interplay between social and technical elements within these systems and resulting emergent behaviour. The framework decomposes STS models into components, where each component is either a static object, dynamic object or behavioural object. Based on existing literature, a classification of the different elements that make up STS, whether it be a social, technical or a natural environment element, is developed; each object can in turn be classified according to the STS elements it represents. Using the proposed framework, it is possible to systematically decompose models to an extent such that points of interface can be identified and the contextual factors required in transforming the component of one model to interface into another is obtained. Using an airport inbound passenger facilitation process as a case study socio-technical system, three different models are analysed: a Business Process Modelling Notation (BPMN) model, Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) model and an Agent Based Model (ABM). It is found that the framework enables the modeller to identify non-trivial interface points such as between the spatial interactions of an ABM and the causal reasoning of a HQBN, and between the process activity representation of a BPMN and simulated behavioural performance in a HQBN. Such a framework is a necessary enabler in order to integrate different modelling approaches in understanding and managing STS.

Conformational Spread as a Mechanism for Cooperativity in the Bacterial Flagellar Switch

The bacterial flagellar switch that controls the direction of flagellar rotation during Chemotaxis has a highly cooperative response. This has previously been understood in terms of the classic two-state, concerted model of allosteric regulation. Here, we used high-resolution optical microscopy to observe switching of single motors and uncover the stochastic multistate nature of the switch. Our observations are in detailed quantitative agreement with a recent general model of allosteric cooperativity that exhibits conformational spread-the stochastic growth and shrinkage of domains of adjacent subunits sharing a particular conformational state. We expect that conformational spread will be important in explaining cooperativity in other large signaling complexes.

Protein Molecular Surface Mapped at Different Geometrical Resolutions

Many areas of biochemistry and molecular biology, both fundamental and applications-orientated, require an accurate construction, representation and understanding of the protein molecular surface and its interaction with other, usually small, molecules. There are however many situations when the protein molecular surface gets in physical contact with larger objects, either biological, such as membranes, or artificial, such as nanoparticles. The contribution presents a methodology for describing and quantifying the molecular properties of proteins, by geometrical and physico-chemical mapping of the molecular surfaces, with several analytical relationships being proposed for molecular surface properties. The relevance of the molecular surface-derived properties has been demonstrated through the calculation of the statistical strength of the prediction of protein adsorption. It is expected that the extension of this methodology to other phenomena involving proteins near solid surfaces, in particular the protein interaction with nanoparticles, will result in important benefits in the understanding and design of protein-specific solid surfaces. © 2013 Nicolau et al.

Correcting flaws in Mitchell’s analysis of EPBC

Efficient error-Propagating Block Chaining (EPBC) is a block cipher mode intended to simultaneously provide both confidentiality and integrity protection for messages. Mitchell’s analysis pointed out a weakness in the EPBC integrity mechanism that can be used in a forgery attack. This paper identifies and corrects a flaw in Mitchell’s analysis of EPBC, and presents other attacks on the EPBC integrity mechanism.

Mathematical models of calcium and tight junctions in normal and reconstructed epidermis

This project investigated the calcium distributions of the skin, and the growth patterns of skin substitutes grown in the laboratory, using mathematical models. The research found that the calcium distribution in the upper layer of the skin is controlled by three different mechanisms, not one as previously thought. The research also suggests that tight junctions, which are adhesions between neighbouring skin cells, cannot be solely responsible for the differences in the growth patterns of skin substitutes and normal skin.

Airborne viable fungi in school environments in different climatic regions – A review

Elevated levels of fungi in indoor environments have been linked with mould/moisture damage in building structures. However, there is a lack of information about “normal” concentrations and flora as well as guidelines of viable fungi in the school environment in different climatic conditions. We have reviewed existing guidelines for indoor fungi and the current knowledge of the concentrations and flora of viable fungi in different climatic areas, the impact of the local factors on concentrations and flora of viable fungi in school environments. Meta-regression was performed to estimate the average behaviour for each analysis of interest, showing wide variation in the mean concentrations in outdoor and indoor school environments (range: 101-103 cfu/m3). These concentrations were significantly higher for both outdoors and indoors in the moderate than in the continental climatic area, showing that the climatic condition was a determinant for the concentrations of airborne viable fungi. The most common fungal species both in the moderate and continental area were Cladosporium spp. and Penicillium spp. The suggested few quantitative guidelines for indoor air viable fungi for school buildings are much lower than for residential areas. This review provides a synthesis, which can be used to guide the interpretation of the fungi measurements results and help to find indications of mould/moisture in school building structures.

Multi-objective models and techniques for analysing the absolute capacity of railway networks

Railway capacity determination and expansion are very important topics. In prior research, the competition between different entities such as train services and train types, on different network corridors however have been ignored, poorly modelled, or else assumed to be static. In response, a comprehensive set of multi-objective models have been formulated in this article to perform a trade-off analysis. These models determine the total absolute capacity of railway networks as the most equitable solution according to a clearly defined set of competing objectives. The models also perform a sensitivity analysis of capacity with respect to those competing objectives. The models have been extensively tested on a case study and their significant worth is shown. The models were solved using a variety of techniques however an adaptive E constraint method was shown to be most superior. In order to identify only the best solution, a Simulated Annealing meta-heuristic was implemented and tested. However a linearization technique based upon separable programming was also developed and shown to be superior in terms of solution quality but far less in terms of computational time.

A meshless method based on Point Interpolation Method (PIM) for the space fractional diffusion equation

This paper aims to develop a meshless approach based on the Point Interpolation Method (PIM) for numerical simulation of a space fractional diffusion equation. Two fully-discrete schemes for the one-dimensional space fractional diffusion equation are obtained by using the PIM and the strong-forms of the space diffusion equation. Numerical examples with different nodal distributions are studied to validate and investigate the accuracy and efficiency of the newly developed meshless approach.

Buy low, sell high

We consider online trading in a single security with the objective of getting rich when its price ever exhibits a large upcrossing, without risking bankruptcy. We investigate payoff guarantees that are expressed in terms of the extremity of the upcrossings. We obtain an exact and elegant characterisation of the guarantees that can be achieved. Moreover, we derive a simple canonical strategy for each attainable guarantee.