Finite-Sample Inference Methods for Simultaneous Equations and Models with Unobserved and Generated Regressors

We propose finite sample tests and confidence sets for models with unobserved and generated regressors as well as various models estimated by instrumental variables methods. The validity of the procedures is unaffected by the presence of identification problems or \"weak instruments\", so no detection of such problems is required. We study two distinct approaches for various models considered by Pagan (1984). The first one is an instrument substitution method which generalizes an approach proposed by Anderson and Rubin (1949) and Fuller (1987) for different (although related) problems, while the second one is based on splitting the sample. The instrument substitution method uses the instruments directly, instead of generated regressors, in order to test hypotheses about the \"structural parameters\" of interest and build confidence sets. The second approach relies on \"generated regressors\", which allows a gain in degrees of freedom, and a sample split technique. For inference about general possibly nonlinear transformations of model parameters, projection techniques are proposed. A distributional theory is obtained under the assumptions of Gaussian errors and strictly exogenous regressors. We show that the various tests and confidence sets proposed are (locally) \"asymptotically valid\" under much weaker assumptions. The properties of the tests proposed are examined in simulation experiments. In general, they outperform the usual asymptotic inference methods in terms of both reliability and power. Finally, the techniques suggested are applied to a model of Tobin’s q and to a model of academic performance.

The Backing of Government Debt and the Price Level

This paper studies the interdependence between fiscal and monetary policies, and their joint role in the determination of the price level. The government is characterized by a long-run fiscal policy rule whereby a given fraction of the outstanding debt, say d, is backed by the present discounted value of current and future primary surpluses. The remaining debt is backed by seigniorage revenue. The parameter d characterizes the interdependence between fiscal and monetary authorities. It is shown that in a standard monetary economy, this policy rule implies that the price level depends not only on the money stock, but also on the proportion of debt that is backed with money. Empirical estimates of d are obtained for OECD countries using data on nominal consumption, monetary base, and debt. Results indicate that debt plays only a minor role in the determination of the price level in these economies. Estimates of d correlate well with institutional measures of central bank independence.

Finite-Sample Simulation-Based Inference in VAR Models with Applications to Order Selection and Causality Testing

Statistical tests in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are typically based on large-sample approximations, involving the use of asymptotic distributions or bootstrap techniques. After documenting that such methods can be very misleading even with fairly large samples, especially when the number of lags or the number of equations is not small, we propose a general simulation-based technique that allows one to control completely the level of tests in parametric VAR models. In particular, we show that maximized Monte Carlo tests [Dufour (2002)] can provide provably exact tests for such models, whether they are stationary or integrated. Applications to order selection and causality testing are considered as special cases. The technique developed is applied to quarterly and monthly VAR models of the U.S. economy, comprising income, money, interest rates and prices, over the period 1965-1996.

Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: an identification robust econometric analysis

In this paper, we use identification-robust methods to assess the empirical adequacy of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) equation. We focus on the Gali and Gertler’s (1999) specification, on both U.S. and Canadian data. Two variants of the model are studied: one based on a rationalexpectations assumption, and a modification to the latter which consists in using survey data on inflation expectations. The results based on these two specifications exhibit sharp differences concerning: (i) identification difficulties, (ii) backward-looking behavior, and (ii) the frequency of price adjustments. Overall, we find that there is some support for the hybrid NKPC for the U.S., whereas the model is not suited to Canada. Our findings underscore the need for employing identificationrobust inference methods in the estimation of expectations-based dynamic macroeconomic relations.

Beliefs And Misbeliefs About Current Interventions During Labor And Delivery In Brazil.

30 Suppl 1

Effects of acupressure on progress of labor and cesarean section rate: randomized clinical trial

OBJECTIVE To analyze the effects of acupressure at the SP6 point on labor duration and cesarean section rates in parturients served in a public maternity hospital.METHODS This controlled, randomized, double-blind, pragmatic clinical trial involved 156 participants with gestational age ≥ 37 weeks, cervical dilation ≥ 4 cm, and ≥ 2 contractions in 10 min. The women were randomly divided into an acupressure, placebo, or control group at a university hospital in an inland city in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, in 2013. Acupressure was applied to the SP6 point during contractions for 20 min.RESULTS The average labor duration was significantly different between the SP6 acupressure group [221.5 min (SD = 162.4)] versus placebo [397.9 min (SD = 265.6)] and versus control [381.9 min (SD = 358.3)] (p = 0.0047); however, the groups were similar regarding the cesarean section rates (p = 0.2526) and Apgar scores in the first minute (p = 0.9542) and the fifth minute (p = 0.7218) of life of the neonate.CONCLUSIONS The SP6 acupressure point proved to be a complementary measure to induce labor and may shorten the labor duration without causing adverse effects to the mother or the newborn. However, it did not affect the cesarean section rate.

Financial development, labor and market regulations and growth

This paper investigates the importance that market regulation and financial imperfections have on firm growth. We analyse institutions af- fecting labor market as Employment Protection Laws (EP) and Product Market Regulation (PM). We show that together with the beneficial effects of financial development, a firm will get less financing, and thus investless, in a weak financial market (finance effect), the strictness of product and labor market regulations also affect firm growth (labor effect). In particular, we show that the stricter the rules the more detrimental the influence on growth in sectoral value added for a large number of countries. We also show that the labor effect overcomes the positive finance effect.

Nonclassical measurement error with applications to labor and development issues

Zero correlation between measurement error and model error has been assumed in existing panel data models dealing specifically with measurement error. We extend this literature and propose a simple model where one regressor is mismeasured, allowing the measurement error to correlate with model error. Zero correlation between measurement error and model error is a special case in our model where correlated measurement error equals zero. We ask two research questions. First, we wonder if the correlated measurement error can be identified in the context of panel data. Second, we wonder if classical instrumental variables in panel data need to be adjusted when correlation between measurement error and model error cannot be ignored. Under some regularity conditions the answer is yes to both questions. We then propose a two-step estimation corresponding to the two questions. The first step estimates correlated measurement error from a reverse regression; and the second step estimates usual coefficients of interest using adjusted instruments.

Use of alternative and complementary therapies in labor and delivery care: a cross-sectional study of midwives" training in Catalan hospitals accredited as centers for normal birth

Background: The use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) and complementary and alternative therapies (CAT) during pregnancy is increasing. Scientific evidence for CAM and CAT in the field of obstetrics mainly covers pain relief in labor. Midwives are responsible for labor and delivery care: hence, their knowledge of CAM and CAT is important. The aims of this study are to describe the professional profile of midwives who provide care for natural childbirth in Catalan hospitals accredited as centers for normal birth, to assess midwives" level of training in CAT and their use of these therapies, and to identify specific resources for CAT in labor wards. Methods: A descriptive, cross-sectional, quantitative method was used to assess the level of training and use of CAT by midwives working at 28 hospitals in Catalonia, Spain, accredited as public normal birth centers. Results: Just under a third of midwives (30.4%) trained in CAT after completion of basic training. They trained in an average of 5.97 therapies (SD 3.56). The number of CAT in which the midwives were trained correlated negatively with age (r = - 0.284; p < 0.001) and with their time working at the hospital in years (r = - 0.136; p = 0.036). Midwives trained in CAT considered that the following therapies were useful or very useful for pain relief during labor and delivery: relaxation techniques (64.3%), hydrotherapy (84.8%) and the application of compresses to the perineum (75.9%). The availability of resources for providing CAT during normal birth care varied widely from center to center. Conclusions: Age may influence attitudes towards training. It is important to increase the number of midwives trained in CAM for pain relief during childbirth, in order to promote the use of CAT and ensure efficiency and safety. CAT resources at accredited hospitals providing normal childbirth care should also be standardized.

Use of alternative and complementary therapies in labor and delivery care: a cross-sectional study of midwives" training in Catalan hospitals accredited as centers for normal birth

Background: The use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) and complementary and alternative therapies (CAT) during pregnancy is increasing. Scientific evidence for CAM and CAT in the field of obstetrics mainly covers pain relief in labor. Midwives are responsible for labor and delivery care: hence, their knowledge of CAM and CAT is important. The aims of this study are to describe the professional profile of midwives who provide care for natural childbirth in Catalan hospitals accredited as centers for normal birth, to assess midwives" level of training in CAT and their use of these therapies, and to identify specific resources for CAT in labor wards. Methods: A descriptive, cross-sectional, quantitative method was used to assess the level of training and use of CAT by midwives working at 28 hospitals in Catalonia, Spain, accredited as public normal birth centers. Results: Just under a third of midwives (30.4%) trained in CAT after completion of basic training. They trained in an average of 5.97 therapies (SD 3.56). The number of CAT in which the midwives were trained correlated negatively with age (r = - 0.284; p < 0.001) and with their time working at the hospital in years (r = - 0.136; p = 0.036). Midwives trained in CAT considered that the following therapies were useful or very useful for pain relief during labor and delivery: relaxation techniques (64.3%), hydrotherapy (84.8%) and the application of compresses to the perineum (75.9%). The availability of resources for providing CAT during normal birth care varied widely from center to center. Conclusions: Age may influence attitudes towards training. It is important to increase the number of midwives trained in CAM for pain relief during childbirth, in order to promote the use of CAT and ensure efficiency and safety. CAT resources at accredited hospitals providing normal childbirth care should also be standardized.

Economic growth, labor and productivity in Brazil and the United States: a comparative analysis

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relation between economic growth and labor market dynamics in Brazil between 1981 and 2009, making a comparison with the United States. Among the findings, one can mention that economic growth in Brazil has been related to a massive incorporation of labor force in labor intensive activities, whereas, in the United States, to a substantial improvement of labor productivity in high-technology activities. Despite the favorable economic context in the 2000s, huge inequalities between these countries have widened since the structure of the Brazilian labor market remained with few or no changes.

International Business Cycles: What Are the Facts?

Modern business cycle theory involves developing models that explain stylized facts. For this strategy to be successful, these facts should be well established. In this paper, we focus on the stylized facts of international business cycles. We use the generalized method of moments and quarterly data from nineteen industrialized countries to estimate pairwise cross-country and within-country correlations of macroeconomic aggregates. We calculate standard errors of the statistics for our unique panel of data and test hypotheses about the relative sizes of these correlations. We find a lower cross-country correlation of all aggregates and especially of consumption than in previous studies. The cross-country correlations of consumption, output and Solow residuals are not significantly different from one another over the whole sample, but there are significant differences in the post-1973 subsample.

International Transmission of the Business Cycle in a Multi-Sector Model.

Multi-country models have not been very successful in replicating important features of the international transmission of business cycles. Standard models predict cross-country correlations of output and consumption which are respectively too low and too high. In this paper, we build a multi-country model of the business cycle with multiple sectors in order to analyze the role of sectoral shocks in the international transmission of the business cycle. We find that a model with multiple sectors generates a higher cross-country correlation of output than standard one-sector models, and a lower cross-country correlation of consumption. In addition, it predicts cross-country correlations of employment and investment that are closer to the data than the standard model. We also analyze the relative effects of multiple sectors, trade in intermediate goods, imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign goods, home preference, capital adjustment costs, and capital depreciation on the international transmission of the business cycle.