Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for Stochastic Search Variable Selection (currently popular with regression and Vector Autoregressive models) for Vector Error Correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model.

What Belongs Where? Variable Selection for Zero-Inflated Count Models with an Application to the Demand for Health Care

This paper develops stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) for zero-inflated count models which are commonly used in health economics. This allows for either model averaging or model selection in situations with many potential regressors. The proposed techniques are applied to a data set from Germany considering the demand for health care. A package for the free statistical software environment R is provided.

Inverted Haavelmo Effects in a General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Implementing the Scottish Variable Rate of Income Tax.

The Scottish Parliament has the authority to make a balanced-budget expansion or contraction in public expenditure, funded by corresponding local changes in the basic rate of income tax of up to 3p in the pound. This fiscal adjustment is known as the Scottish Variable Rate of income tax, though it has never, as yet, been used. In this paper we attempt to identify the impact on aggregate economic activity in Scotland of implementing these devolved fiscal powers. This is achieved through theoretical analysis and simulation using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Scotland. This analysis generalises the conventional Keynesian model so that negative balanced-budget multipliers values are possible, reflecting a regional “inverted Haavelmo effect”. Key parameters determining the aggregate economic impact are the extent to which the Scottish Government create local amenities valuable to the Scottish population and the extent to which this is incorporated into local wage bargaining.

Bayesian Model Averaging in the Instrumental Variable Regression Model

This paper considers the instrumental variable regression model when there is uncertainty about the set of instruments, exogeneity restrictions, the validity of identifying restrictions and the set of exogenous regressors. This uncertainty can result in a huge number of models. To avoid statistical problems associated with standard model selection procedures, we develop a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that allows us to do Bayesian model averaging. The algorithm is very exible and can be easily adapted to analyze any of the di¤erent priors that have been proposed in the Bayesian instrumental variables literature. We show how to calculate the probability of any relevant restriction (e.g. the posterior probability that over-identifying restrictions hold) and discuss diagnostic checking using the posterior distribution of discrepancy vectors. We illustrate our methods in a returns-to-schooling application.

Time Horizons And Smoothing In The Bank Of England’s Reaction Function: The Contrast Between The Standard GMM And Ex Ante Forecast Approaches

The monetary policy reaction function of the Bank of England is estimated by the standard GMM approach and the ex-ante forecast method developed by Goodhart (2005), with particular attention to the horizons for inflation and output at which each approach gives the best fit. The horizons for the ex-ante approach are much closer to what is implied by the Bank’s view of the transmission mechanism, while the GMM approach produces an implausibly slow adjustment of the interest rate, and suffers from a weak instruments problem. These findings suggest a strong preference for the ex-ante approach.

Time Horizons And Smoothing In The Bank Of England’s Reaction Function: The Contrast Between The Standard GMM And Ex Ante Forecast Approaches

The monetary policy reaction function of the Bank of England is estimated by the standard GMM approach and the ex-ante forecast method developed by Goodhart (2005), with particular attention to the horizons for inflation and output at which each approach gives the best fit. The horizons for the ex-ante approach are much closer to what is implied by the Bank’s view of the transmission mechanism, while the GMM approach produces an implausibly slow adjustment of the interest rate, and suffers from a weak instruments problem. These findings suggest a strong preference for the ex-ante approach.

EMU, EU, Market Integration and Consumption Smoothing

We take a new approach to the study of the impact of EMU on consumption smoothing. Rather than relying on inferences based on the behavior of consumption levels or growth, we focus on consumption volatility and therefore on smoothing more directly. Consequently, we find that even though EMU tends to smooth consumption, it is not through cross-country property and claims. Rather it comes through the promotion of the tradability of goods, capital in particular: specifically, the encouragement of price competition, contestable home markets, ability to borrow and buy insurance at home, and the harmonization of regulations. Some of the consumption smoothing may also depend on EU membership rather than EMU as such but EMU adds to it. As a fundamental part of the analysis, the paper uses a new index of currency union which focuses on the ratio of trade with other countries sharing the same currency relative to total foreign trade.

Tax smoothing in a business cycle model with capital-skill complementarity

This paper undertakes a normative investigation of the quantitative properties of optimal tax smoothing in a business cycle model with state contingent debt, capital-skill complementarity, endogenous skill formation and stochastic shocks to public consumption as well as total factor and capital equipment productivity. Our main finding is that an empirically relevant restriction which does not allow the relative supply of skilled labour to adjust in response to aggregate shocks, signi cantly changes the cyclical properties of optimal labour taxes. Under a restricted relative skill supply, the government fi nds it optimal to adjust labour income tax rates so that the average net returns to skilled and unskilled labour hours exhibit the same dynamic behaviour as under fl exible skill supply.

Geometria integral i convexitat en espais de curvatura holomorfa constant

En aquest treball es tracten qüestions de la geometria integral clàssica a l'espai hiperbòlic i projectiu complex i a l'espai hermític estàndard, els anomenats espais de curvatura holomorfa constant. La geometria integral clàssica estudia, entre d'altres, l'expressió en termes geomètrics de la mesura de plans que tallen un domini convex fixat de l'espai euclidià. Aquesta expressió es dóna en termes de les integrals de curvatura mitja. Un dels resultats principals d'aquest treball expressa la mesura de plans complexos que tallen un domini fixat a l'espai hiperbòlic complex, en termes del que definim com volums intrínsecs hermítics, que generalitzen les integrals de curvatura mitja. Una altra de les preguntes que tracta la geometria integral clàssica és: donat un domini convex i l'espai de plans, com s'expressa la integral de la s-èssima integral de curvatura mitja del convex intersecció entre un pla i el convex fixat? A l'espai euclidià, a l'espai projectiu i hiperbòlic reals, aquesta integral correspon amb la s-èssima integral de curvatura mitja del convex inicial: se satisfà una propietat de reproductibitat, que no es té en els espais de curvatura holomorfa constant. En el treball donem l'expressió explícita de la integral de la curvatura mitja quan integrem sobre l'espai de plans complexos. L'expressem en termes de la integral de curvatura mitja del domini inicial i de la integral de la curvatura normal en una direcció especial: l'obtinguda en aplicar l'estructura complexa al vector normal. La motivació per estudiar els espais de curvatura holomorfa constant i, en particular, l'espai hiperbòlic complex, es troba en l'estudi del següent problema clàssic en geometria. Quin valor pren el quocient entre l'àrea i el perímetre per a successions de figures convexes del pla que creixen tendint a omplir-lo? Fins ara es coneixia el comportament d'aquest quocient en els espais de curvatura seccional negativa i que a l'espai hiperbòlic real les fites obtingudes són òptimes. Aquí provem que a l'espai hiperbòlic complex, les cotes generals no són òptimes i optimitzem la superior.

Patrones de tomate: resistencia variable frente al nematodo Meloidogyne

Los patrones de tomate se han propuesto como una alternativa no química al uso del bromuro de metilo. En este estudio se evaluó la respuesta de resistencia de diez patrones de tomate (comerciales y experimentales) a nematodos del género Meloidogyne mediante un ensayo de campo realizado en un invernadero de plástico cuyo suelo se hallaba infestado por Meloidogyne javanica. Al finalizar la campaña agrícola (marzo a julio), siete de los patrones ensayados mostraron altos niveles de resistencia, uno presentó resistencia intermedia y dos resultaron ser susceptibles al nematodo.

Series enlazadas de algunos agregados económicos nacionales y regionales, 1955-2007 Versión 2.1

I construct "homogeneous" series of GVA at current and constant prices, employment and population for the Spain and its regions covering the period 1955-2007. The series are obtained by linking the Regional Accounts of the National Statistical Institute with the series constructed by Julio Alcaide and his team for the BBVA Foundation. The "switching point" at which this last source stops being used as a reference to construct the linked series is determined using a procedure that allows me to estimate which of the two competing series would produce an estimator with the lowest MSE when it is used as dependent variable in a regression on an arbitrary independent variable. To the extent that it is possible, the difference between the two series found at the point of linkage is distributed between the initial levels of the older series and its subsequent growth using external estimates of the relevant variables at the beginning of the sample period.

Generation of a recombinant mouse-human chimaeric monoclonal antibody directed against human carcinoembryonic antigen.

A procedure was devised for the identification and specific cloning of functionally rearranged variable region immunoglobulin (Ig) gene segments from genomic DNA of a murine hybridoma cell line which produces a high-affinity monoclonal antibody (MAb) directed against human carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). The cloned, functionally-rearranged murine Ig H-chain and L-chain variable region gene segments were incorporated into plasmid vectors capable of directing the expression of a chimaeric mouse-human antibody molecule with human (gamma 4, kappa) constant region sequences. Expression plasmids were transfected into a mouse myeloma cell line by electroporation and transfectomas secreting functional chimaeric antibody selected. Chimaeric antibody generated by transfectomas was analysed and shown to compete effectively with its murine counterpart for binding to the CEA epitope, and to have an equivalent antigen-binding affinity. This anti-CEA recombinant antibody should find application in in vivo diagnosis by immunoscintigraphy of human colonic carcinoma, and possibly also in therapy of the disease, overcoming some of the difficulties associated with the repeated use of non-human immunoglobulins in human patients.

Variable viral clearance despite adequate ganciclovir plasma levels during valganciclovir treatment for cytomegalovirus disease in D+/R- transplant recipients.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Valganciclovir, the oral prodrug of ganciclovir, has been demonstrated equivalent to iv ganciclovir for CMV disease treatment in solid organ transplant recipients. Variability in ganciclovir exposure achieved with valganciclovir could be implicated as a contributing factor for explaining variations in the therapeutic response. This prospective observational study aimed to correlate clinical and cytomegalovirus (CMV) viral load response (DNAemia) with ganciclovir plasma concentrations in patients treated with valganciclovir for CMV infection/disease. METHODS: Seven CMV D+/R- transplant recipients (4 kidney, 2 liver and 1 heart) were treated with valganciclovir (initial dose was 900-1800 mg/day for 3-6.5 weeks, followed by 450-900 mg/day for 2-9 weeks). DNAemia was monitored by real time quantitative PCR and ganciclovir plasma concentration was measured at trough (Ctrough) and 3 h after drug administration (C3h) by HPLC. RESULTS: Four patients presented with CMV syndrome, two had CMV tissue-invasive disease after prophylaxis discontinuation, and one liver recipient was treated pre-emptively for asymptomatic rising CMV viral load 5 weeks post-transplantation in the absence of prophylaxis. CMV DNAemia decreased during the first week of treatment in all recipients except in one patient (median decrease: -1.2 log copies/mL, range: -1.8 to 0) despite satisfactory ganciclovir exposure (AUC0-12 = 48 mg.h/L, range for the 7 patients: 40-118 mg.h/L). Viral clearance was obtained in five patients after a median of time of 34 days (range: 28-82 days). Two patients had recurrent CMV disease despite adequate ganciclovir exposure (65 mg.h/L, range: 44-118 mg.h/L). CONCLUSIONS: Valganciclovir treatment for CMV infection/disease in D+/R- transplant recipients can thus result in variable viral clearance despite adequate ganciclovir plasma concentrations, probably correlating inversely with anti-CMV immune responses after primary infection.

CHO expression of a novel human recombinant IgG1 anti-RhD antibody isolated by phage display.

Replacement of the hyperimmune anti-Rhesus (Rh) D immunoglobulin, currently used to prevent haemolytic disease of the newborn, by fully recombinant human anti-RhD antibodies would solve the current logistic problems associated with supply and demand. The combination of phage display repertoire cloning with precise selection procedures enables isolation of specific genes that can then be inserted into mammalian expression systems allowing production of large quantities of recombinant human proteins. With the aim of selecting high-affinity anti-RhD antibodies, two human Fab libraries were constructed from a hyperimmune donor. Use of a new phage panning procedure involving bromelin-treated red blood cells enabled the isolation of two high-affinity Fab-expressing phage clones. LD-6-3 and LD-6-33, specific for RhD. These showed a novel reaction pattern by recognizing the D variants D(III), D(IVa), D(IVb), D(Va), D(VI) types I and II. D(VII), Rh33 and DFR. Full-length immunoglobulin molecules were constructed by cloning the variable regions into expression vectors containing genomic DNA encoding the immunoglobulin constant regions. We describe the first, stable, suspension growth-adapted Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cell line producing a high affinity recombinant human IgG1 anti-RhD antibody adapted to pilot-scale production. Evaluation of the Fc region of this recombinant antibody by either chemiluminescence or antibody-dependent cell cytotoxicity (ADCC) assays demonstrated macrophage activation and lysis of red blood cells by human lymphocytes. A consistent source of recombinant human anti-RhD immunoglobulin produced by CHO cells is expected to meet the stringent safety and regulatory requirements for prophylactic application.