Minimum, maximum and mean annual ground temperatures in permafrost around Abisko ANS between 2008-2009

Monitoring of permafrost has been ongoing since 1978 in the Abisko area, northernmost Sweden, when measurements of active layer thickness started. In 1980, boreholes were drilled in three mires in the area to record permafrost temperatures. Recordings were made twice per year, and the last data were obtained in 2002. During the International Polar Year (2007-2008), new boreholes were drilled within the 'Back to the Future' (BTF) and 'Thermal State of Permafrost' (TSP) projects that enabled year-round temperature monitoring. Mean annual ground temperatures (MAGT) in the mires are close to 0°C, ranging from -0.16 to -0.47°C at 5 m depth. Data from the boreholes show increasing ground temperatures in the upper and lower part by 0.4 to 1°C between 1980 and 2002. At one mire, permafrost thickness has decreased from 15 m in 1980 to ca. 9 m in 2009, with an accelerating thawing trend during the last decade.

Regression to the mean: what it is and how to deal with it

Background Regression to the mean (RTM) is a statistical phenomenon that can make natural variation in repeated data look like real change. It happens when unusually large or small measurements tend to be followed by measurements that are closer to the mean. Methods We give some examples of the phenomenon, and discuss methods to overcome it at the design and analysis stages of a study. Results The effect of RTM in a sample becomes more noticeable with increasing measurement error and when follow-up measurements are only examined on a sub-sample selected using a baseline value. Conclusions RTM is a ubiquitous phenomenon in repeated data and should always be considered as a possible cause of an observed change. Its effect can be alleviated through better study design and use of suitable statistical methods.

Population-based continuous optimization, probabilistic modelling and mean shift

Evolutionary algorithms perform optimization using a population of sample solution points. An interesting development has been to view population-based optimization as the process of evolving an explicit, probabilistic model of the search space. This paper investigates a formal basis for continuous, population-based optimization in terms of a stochastic gradient descent on the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the model probability density and the objective function, represented as an unknown density of assumed form. This leads to an update rule that is related and compared with previous theoretical work, a continuous version of the population-based incremental learning algorithm, and the generalized mean shift clustering framework. Experimental results are presented that demonstrate the dynamics of the new algorithm on a set of simple test problems.

Measurement properties of the CHAMPS physical activity questionnaire in a sample of older Australians

Background: The effective evaluation of physical activity interventions for older adults requires measurement instruments with acceptable psychometric properties that are sufficiently sensitive to detect changes in this population. Aim: To assess the measurement properties (reliability and validity) of the Community Healthy Activities Model Program for Seniors (CHAMPS) questionnaire in a sample of older Australians. Methods: CHAMPS data were collected from 167 older adults (mean age 79.1 S.D. 6.3 years) and validated with tests of physical ability and the SF-12 measures of physical and mental health. Responses from a sub-sample of 43 older adults were used to assess 1-week test-retest reliability. Results: Approximately 25% of participants needed assistance to complete the CHAMPS questionnaire. There were low but significant correlations between the CHAMPS scores and the physical performance measures (rho=0.14-0.32) and the physical health scale of the SF-12 (rho=0.12-0.24). Reliability coefficients were highest for moderate-intensity (ICC=0.81-0.88) and lowest for vigorous-intensity physical activity (ICC=0.34-0.45). Agreement between test-retest estimates of sufficient physical activity for health benefits (>= 150 min and >= 5 sessions per week) was high (percent agreement = 88% and Cohen's kappa = 0.68). Conclusion: These findings suggest that the CHAMPS questionnaire has acceptable measurement properties, and is therefore suitable for use among older Australian adults, as long as adequate assistance is provided during administration. (c) 2006 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How many glomerular profiles must be measured to obtain reliable estimates of mean glomerular areas in human renal biopsies?

The objective of this study was to investigate the number of glomerular profiles that are required for accurate estimates of mean profile area in a renal biopsy series. Slides from 384 renal biopsies from one center were reviewed. They contained a median of seven glomerular profiles or of four profiles without sclerosis. Profile areas were measured using stereologic point counting. The true individual mean for each biopsy was calculated and the true population mean for groups of biopsies derived. Individual and population random sample means then were calculated from a random sampling of profiles in each biopsy and were compared with true means for the same biopsies. The effect on the true population means of the entire group of biopsies was also assessed, as the minimum number of glomerular profiles that were required for inclusion was changed. In a single biopsy, random sampling of >= 10 profiles without exclusions and of eight profiles or more without sclerosis reliably estimated the true mean areas. In a group of 30 biopsies, random sampling of five or more glomeruli per biopsy reliably estimated the true population mean. In the aggregate series, inclusion of all 384 biopsies produced the most robust true population mean; the reliability of the estimates decreased as the numbers of eligible biopsies diminished with increasing requisite minimum numbers of profiles per biopsy. We conclude that, while >= 10 profiles might be needed for reliable area estimates in a single biopsy, far fewer profiles per biopsy can suffice when groups of biopsies are studied. In analyses of groups of biopsies, all available biopsies should be used without consideration of the number of glomerular profiles in each. Stipulation of a specific minimum number of glomeruli in each biopsy for inclusion reduces the power of analyses because fewer biopsies are available for evaluation.

Mean reversion in the short horizon returns of UK portfolios

This paper will show that short horizon stock returns for UK portfolios are more predictable than suggested by sample autocorrelation co-efficients. Four capitalisation based portfolios are constructed for the period 1976–1991. It is shown that the first order autocorrelation coefficient of monthly returns can explain no more than 10% of the variation in monthly portfolio returns. Monthly autocorrelation coefficients assume that each weekly return of the previous month contains the same amount of information. However, this will not be the case if short horizon returns contain predictable components which dissipate rapidly. In this case, the return of the most recent week would say a lot more about the future monthly portfolio return than other weeks. This suggests that when predicting future monthly portfolio returns more weight should be given to the most recent weeks of the previous month, because, the most recent weekly returns provide the most information about the subsequent months' performance. We construct a model which exploits the mean reverting characteristics of monthly portfolio returns. Using this model we forecast future monthly portfolio returns. When compared to forecasts that utilise the autocorrelation statistic the model which exploits the mean reverting characteristics of monthlyportfolio returns can forecast future returns better than the autocorrelation statistic, both in and out of sample.

Estimation of the Offspring and Immigration Mean Vectors for Bisexual Branching Processes with Immigration of Females and Males

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80, 62M05.

Determinants of Waterpipe and Cigarette Smoking Progression among a School Based Sample of Adolescents in Irbid, Jordan: A Three-Year Longitudinal Study (2008-2011)

The prevalence of waterpipe smoking exceeds that of cigarettes among adolescents in the Middle East where waterpipe is believed as less harmful, less addictive and can be a safer alternative to cigarettes. This dissertation tested the gateway hypothesis that waterpipe can provide a bridge to initiate cigarette smoking, identified the predictors of cigarette smoking progression, and identified predictors of waterpipe smoking progression among a school-based sample of Jordanian adolescents (mean age ± SD) (12.7 ±0.61) years at baseline. Data for this research have been drawn from Irbid Longitudinal Study of smoking behavior, Jordan (2008-2011). The grouped-time survival analysis showed that waterpipe smoking was associated with a higher risk of cigarette smoking initiation compared to never smokers (P < 0.001) and this association was dose dependent (P < 0.001). Predictors of cigarette smoking progression were peer smoking and attending public schools for boys, siblings’ smoking for girls, and the urge to smoke for both genders. Predictors of waterpipe smoking progression were enrollment in public schools, frequent physical activity, and low refusal self-efficacy for boys, ever smoking cigarettes, friends’ and siblings’ waterpipe smoking for girls. Awareness of harms of waterpipe among boys and seeing warning labels on the tobacco packs by girls were protective against waterpipe smoking progression. In Conclusion, waterpipe can serve as a gateway to cigarette smoking initiation among adolescents. Waterpipe and cigarette smoking progressions among initiators were solely family-related among girls, and mainly peer-related among boys. The unique gender differences for both cigarette and waterpipe smoking among Jordanian adolescents in Irbid call for cultural and gender-specific smoking prevention interventions to prevent the progression of smoking among initiators.

(Table 1) Elemental mean values of the upper Paleocene and lower Eocene in IODP Hole 302-M0004A

We reconstruct the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (~57-50 Ma) environmental trends in the Arctic Ocean and focus on the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) (~55 Ma), using strata recovered from the Lomonosov Ridge by the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 302. The Lomonosov Ridge was still partially subaerial during the latest Paleocene and earliest Eocene and gradually subsided during the early Eocene. Organic dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblages point to brackish and productive surface waters throughout the latest Paleocene and early Eocene. Dinocyst assemblages are cosmopolitan during this time interval, suggesting warm conditions, which is corroborated by TEX86'-reconstructed temperatures of 15°-18°C. Inorganic geochemistry generally reflects reducing conditions within the sediment and euxinic conditions during the upper lower Eocene. Spectral analysis reveals that the cyclicity, recorded in X-ray fluorescence scanning Fe data from close to Eocene thermal maximum 2 (~53 Ma, presence confirmed by dinocyst stratigraphy), is related to precession. Within the lower part of the PETM, proxy records indicate enhanced weathering, runoff, anoxia, and productivity along with sea level rise. On the basis of total organic carbon content and variations in sediment accumulation rates, excess organic carbon burial in the Arctic Ocean appears to have contributed significantly to the sequestration of injected carbon during the PETM.

(Table 1) Mean statistics for acoustic parameters measured for both brown skua (Catharacta antarctica lonnbergi) sexes

Bird vocalisations are often essential for sex recognition, especially in species that show little morphological sex dimorphism. Brown skuas (Catharacta antarctica lonnbergi), which exhibit uniform plumage across both sexes, emit three main calls: the long call, the alarm call and the contact call. We tested the potential for sex recognition in brown skua calls of 42 genetically sexed individuals by analysing 8-12 acoustic parameters in the temporal and frequency domains of each call type. For every call type, we failed to find sex differences in any of the acoustic parameters measured. Stepwise discriminant function analysis (DFA) revealed that sexes cannot be unambiguously classified, with increasing uncertainty of correct classification from contact calls to long calls to alarm calls. Consequently, acoustic signalling is probably not the key mechanism for sex recognition in brown skuas.

Weighted mean depth of zooplankton measured during various cruises to the Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is the largest brackish water area of the world. On the basis of the data from 16 cruises, we show the seasonal and vertical distribution patterns of the appendicularians Fritillaria borealis, Oikopleura dioica and the cyclopoid copepod Oithona similis, in the highly stratified Bornholm Basin. These species live at least temporarily below the permanent halocline and use different life strategies to cope with the brackish environment. The cold-water species F. borealis is abundant in the upper layers of the water column before the thermocline develops. With the formation of the thermocline abundance decreases and the specimens outlast higher temperatures below the halocline. Distribution and strategy suggest that F. borealis might be a glacial relict species in the Baltic Sea. Although Oikopleura dioica is only abundant during summer, O. similis is present all year round. Both species have in common that their vertical distribution is restricted to the waters below the halocline, most likely due to their requirements of higher salinities. We argue that the observed strategies are determined by ecophysiological constraints and life history traits. These species share an omnivorous feeding behaviour and the capability to utilise a spectra of small particles as food. As phytoplankton concentration is negligible below the halocline, we suggest that these species feed on organic material and heterotrophic organisms that accumulate in the density gradient of the halocline. Therefore, the deep haline waters in the Baltic Sea represent a habitat providing shelter from predation and food supply for adapted species that allows them to gather sufficient resources and to maintain populations.

Measuring star formation in high-z massive galaxies: a mid-infrared to submillimetre study of the GOODS NICMOS Survey sample

We present measurements of the mean mid-infrared to submillimetre flux densities of massive (M_*≳ 10^11 M_⊙) galaxies at redshifts 1.7 < z < 2.9, obtained by stacking positions of known objects taken from the GOODS NICMOS Survey (GNS) catalogue on maps at 24 μm (Spitzer/MIPS); 70, 100 and 160 μm (Herschel/PACS); 250, 350 and 500 μm (BLAST); and 870 μm (LABOCA). A modified blackbody spectrum fit to the stacked flux densities indicates a median [interquartile] star formation rate (SFR) of SFR = 63[48, 81] M_⊙ yr^−1. We note that not properly accounting for correlations between bands when fitting stacked data can significantly bias the result. The galaxies are divided into two groups, disc-like and spheroid-like, according to their Sérsic indices, n. We find evidence that most of the star formation is occurring in n≤ 2 (disc-like) galaxies, with median [interquartile] SFR = 122[100, 150] M_⊙ yr^−1, while there are indications that the n > 2 (spheroid-like) population may be forming stars at a median [interquartile] SFR = 14[9, 20] M_⊙ yr^−1, if at all. Finally, we show that star formation is a plausible mechanism for size evolution in this population as a whole, but find only marginal evidence that it is what drives the expansion of the spheroid-like galaxies.

Are long gamma-ray bursts biased tracers of star formation? Clues from the host galaxies of the Swift/BAT6 complete sample of bright LGRBs II. Star formation rates and metallicities at z < 1

Aims. Long gamma-ray bursts (LGRBs) are associated with the deaths of massive stars and might therefore be a potentially powerful tool for tracing cosmic star formation. However, especially at low redshifts (z< 1.5) LGRBs seem to prefer particular types of environment. Our aim is to study the host galaxies of a complete sample of bright LGRBs to investigate the effect of the environment on GRB formation. Methods. We studied host galaxy spectra of the Swift/BAT6 complete sample of 14 z< 1 bright LGRBs. We used the detected nebular emission lines to measure the dust extinction, star formation rate (SFR), and nebular metallicity (Z) of the hosts and supplemented the data set with previously measured stellar masses M_*. The distributions of the obtained properties and their interrelations (e.g. mass-metallicity and SFR-M_* relations) are compared to samples of field star-forming galaxies. Results. We find that LGRB hosts at z< 1 have on average lower SFRs than if they were direct star formation tracers. By directly comparing metallicity distributions of LGRB hosts and star-forming galaxies, we find a good match between the two populations up to 12 +log (O/H)~8.4−8.5, after which the paucity of metal-rich LGRB hosts becomes apparent. The LGRB host galaxies of our complete sample are consistent with the mass-metallicity relation at similar mean redshift and stellar masses. The cutoff against high metallicities (and high masses) can explain the low SFR values of LGRB hosts. We find a hint of an increased incidence of starburst galaxies in the Swift/BAT6 z< 1 sample with respect to that of a field star-forming population. Given that the SFRs are low on average, the latter is ascribed to low stellar masses. Nevertheless, the limits on the completeness and metallicity availability of current surveys, coupled with the limited number of LGRB host galaxies, prevents us from investigating more quantitatively whether the starburst incidence is such as expected after taking into account the high-metallicity aversion of LGRB host galaxies.