Evaluation of the Hosmer -Lemeshow global goodness -of-fit statistic for mixed variable logistic regression models

The performance of the Hosmer-Lemeshow global goodness-of-fit statistic for logistic regression models was explored in a wide variety of conditions not previously fully investigated. Computer simulations, each consisting of 500 regression models, were run to assess the statistic in 23 different situations. The items which varied among the situations included the number of observations used in each regression, the number of covariates, the degree of dependence among the covariates, the combinations of continuous and discrete variables, and the generation of the values of the dependent variable for model fit or lack of fit.^ The study found that the $\rm\ C$g* statistic was adequate in tests of significance for most situations. However, when testing data which deviate from a logistic model, the statistic has low power to detect such deviation. Although grouping of the estimated probabilities into quantiles from 8 to 30 was studied, the deciles of risk approach was generally sufficient. Subdividing the estimated probabilities into more than 10 quantiles when there are many covariates in the model is not necessary, despite theoretical reasons which suggest otherwise. Because it does not follow a X$\sp2$ distribution, the statistic is not recommended for use in models containing only categorical variables with a limited number of covariate patterns.^ The statistic performed adequately when there were at least 10 observations per quantile. Large numbers of observations per quantile did not lead to incorrect conclusions that the model did not fit the data when it actually did. However, the statistic failed to detect lack of fit when it existed and should be supplemented with further tests for the influence of individual observations. Careful examination of the parameter estimates is also essential since the statistic did not perform as desired when there was moderate to severe collinearity among covariates.^ Two methods studied for handling tied values of the estimated probabilities made only a slight difference in conclusions about model fit. Neither method split observations with identical probabilities into different quantiles. Approaches which create equal size groups by separating ties should be avoided. ^

In vitro evaluation of an alternative method to bond molar tubes

Despite the advances in bonding materials, many clinicians today still prefer to place bands on molar teeth. Molar bonding procedures need improvement to be widely accepted clinically. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the shear bond strength when an additional adhesive layer was applied on the occlusal tooth/tube interface to provide reinforcement to molar tubes. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Sixty third molars were selected and allocated to the 3 groups: group 1 received a conventional direct bond followed by the application of an additional layer of adhesive on the occlusal tooth/tube interface, group 2 received a conventional direct bond, and group 3 received a conventional direct bond and an additional cure time of 10 s. The specimens were debonded in a universal testing machine. The results were analyzed statistically by ANOVA and Tukey's test (α=0.05). RESULTS: Group 1 had a significantly higher (p<0.05) shear bond strength compared to groups 2 and 3. No difference was detected between groups 2 and 3 (p>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The present in vitro findings indicate that the application of an additional layer of adhesive on the tooth/tube interface increased the shear bond strength of the bonded molar tubes.

Evaluation of oviposition traps as an entomological surveillance method for Aedes aegypti (Diptera, Culicidae)

This study aimed to describe the behavior of oviposition traps for Aedes aegypti over time, to compare it with the larval survey and to investigate the association with climatic variables. It was conducted in São José do Rio Preto city, São Paulo. Daily climatic data and fortnightly measurements for oviposition traps and larval infestation were collected from October 2003 to September 2004. Three different periods were identified in the behavior of oviposition traps' positivity and mean number of eggs: increase, plateau and decrease in values. These measurements followed the variation of climatic data from the first and third periods. High correlation was obtained between the positivity and the mean number of eggs. The oviposition traps showed higher capacity to detect the vector than did larval survey. It was observed that the first (October to December) and third (May to September) periods were considered to be the most suitable to use oviposition traps than larval surveys.

Evaluation of the spouted bed dried leaf extract of Bauhinia forficata for the treatment of experimental diabetes in rats

Previously, we have demonstrated that treatment of experimental diabetes with a decoction of Bauhinia forficata leaves is beneficial. In this study, we prepared a two-fold concentrate of this extract and tested its effects on physiological, biochemical and toxicity markers in streptozotocin-diabetic rats. Dried and ground leaves were extracted with warm 70% hydroethanol and the filtrate concentrated by evaporation at 50 degrees C. This solution was mixed with colloidal silicon dioxide (Tixosil-333 (R)) and dried in a spouted bed (BfT). Rats were treated with water, insulin and Tixosil particles at low or high doses, alone or coated with dried BfT. Animals were periodically weighed and monitored for water and food intake; urinary volume, glucose, urea and protein; blood glucose, serum lipids, liver toxicity markers transaminase and phosphatase and masses of adipose tissue and skeletal muscle. Insulin treatment gave best rat growth and lowest values for all other markers. No other treatment affected any diabetic marker, but the enzyme activities were changed by diabetes and BfT. Thus, BfT toxicity could arise from secondary products of plant constituents or Tixosil interaction. Therefore, BfT prepared in the spouted bed as described, is unsuitable for treatment of diabetes, which implies that the method of preparation of any medicine is critical for its efficacy and toxicity.

Power imbalance application region method for distributed synchronous generator anti-islanding protection design and evaluation

This paper presents a novel graphical approach to adjust and evaluate frequency-based relays employed in anti-islanding protection schemes of distributed synchronous generators, in order to meet the anti-islanding and abnormal frequency variation requirements, simultaneously. The proposed method defines a region in the power mismatch space, inside which the relay non-detection zone should be located, if the above-mentioned requirements must be met. Such region is called power imbalance application region. Results show that this method can help protection engineers to adjust frequency-based relays to improve the anti-islanding capability and to minimize false operation occurrences, keeping the abnormal frequency variation utility requirements satisfied. Moreover, the proposed method can be employed to coordinate different types of frequency-based relays, aiming at improving overall performance of the distributed generator frequency protection scheme. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Verification of a mixed high-order accurate DNS code for laminar turbulent transition by the method of manufactured solutions

This paper presents results on a verification test of a Direct Numerical Simulation code of mixed high-order of accuracy using the method of manufactured solutions (MMS). This test is based on the formulation of an analytical solution for the Navier-Stokes equations modified by the addition of a source term. The present numerical code was aimed at simulating the temporal evolution of instability waves in a plane Poiseuille flow. The governing equations were solved in a vorticity-velocity formulation for a two-dimensional incompressible flow. The code employed two different numerical schemes. One used mixed high-order compact and non-compact finite-differences from fourth-order to sixth-order of accuracy. The other scheme used spectral methods instead of finite-difference methods for the streamwise direction, which was periodic. In the present test, particular attention was paid to the boundary conditions of the physical problem of interest. Indeed, the verification procedure using MMS can be more demanding than the often used comparison with Linear Stability Theory. That is particularly because in the latter test no attention is paid to the nonlinear terms. For the present verification test, it was possible to manufacture an analytical solution that reproduced some aspects of an instability wave in a nonlinear stage. Although the results of the verification by MMS for this mixed-order numerical scheme had to be interpreted with care, the test was very useful as it gave confidence that the code was free of programming errors. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effectiveness of the standard evaluation method for hydraulic nozzles employed in stored grain protection trials

In stored grains, smaller depositions and great variation with respect to theoretical insecticide doses are frequently found. The objective of this work was to study the effectiveness of the standard method (ISO 5682/1-1996) employed to evaluate hydraulic nozzles used in stored corn and wheat grain protection experiments. The transversal volumetric distribution and droplet spectrum of a model TJ-60 8002EVS nozzle were determined in order to calibrate a spraying system for an application rate of 5 L/t and to obtain theoretical concentrations of 10 and 0.5 mg/kg of fenitrothion and esfenvalerate, respectively. After treatment, the corn and wheat grains were processed and deposition was analyzed by gas chromatography. The type of grain did not have any influence on insecticide deposition and was dependent upon insecticide only. The insecticide deposits on the grains only reached 42.1 and 38.2% of the intended theoretical values for fenitrothion and esfenvalerate concentrations, respectively. These results demonstrate the ineffectiveness of the standard evaluation method for hydraulic nozzles employed in stored grain protection experiments.

W/O/W multiple emulsions obtained by one-step emulsification method and evaluation of the involved variables

The effects of some composition variables on the development of multiple emulsions by one-step method were evaluated and their morphology characterized. The formulations that remained stable during the period of the test were submitted to centrifugation and thermal stress tests. The stability and the morphology of multiple droplets were affected not only by the type and concentration of the surfactants employed, but also by the water/oil ratios used. The results suggest that the formation of multiple droplets could involve a combination of transitional and catastrophic phase inversions. The results provide improved knowledge about the one-step emulsification method, a simplified process to prepare multiple emulsions when compared to the two-steps method.

Evaluation of erythrocyte dysmorphism by light microscopy with lowering of the condenser lens: A simple and efficient method

Aim: To demonstrate that the evaluation of erythrocyte dysmorphism by light microscopy with lowering of the condenser lens (LMLC) is useful to identify patients with a haematuria of glomerular or non-glomerular origin. Methods: A comparative double-blind study between phase contrast microscopy (PCM) and LMLC is reported to evaluate the efficacy of these techniques. Urine samples of 39 patients followed up for 9 months were analyzed, and classified as glomerular and non-glomerular haematuria. The different microscopic techniques were compared using receiver-operator curve (ROC) analysis and area under curve (AUC). Reproducibility was assessed by coefficient of variation (CV). Results: Specific cut-offs were set for each method according to their best rate of specificity and sensitivity as follows: 30% for phase contrast microscopy and 40% for standard LMLC, reaching in the first method the rate of 95% and 100% of sensitivity and specificity, respectively, and in the second method the rate of 90% and 100% of sensitivity and specificity, respectively. In ROC analysis, AUC for PCM was 0.99 and AUC for LMLC was 0.96. The CV was very similar in glomerular haematuria group for PCM (35%) and LMLC (35.3%). Conclusion: LMLC proved to be effective in contributing to the direction of investigation of haematuria, toward the nephrological or urological side. This method can substitute PCM when this equipment is not available.

Evaluation of three different adhesive systems using a bacterial method to develop secondary caries in vitro

Purpose: To assess the effects of three different dental adhesive systems on the formation of secondary root caries, in vitro, with a standardized interfacial gap in a filled cavity model. Methods: 40 sound human molars were selected and randomly assigned to four experimental groups: Clearfil SE Bond (CSEB), Xeno III (X-III), Scotchbond Multi-Purpose Plus (SBMP) and negative control (NC) without an adhesive system. After the standardized Class V cavity preparations on the buccal and lingual surfaces, restorations were placed with resin composite (Filtek Z250) using a standardized interfacial gap, using a 3 x 2 mm piece of 50 mu m metal matrix. The teeth were sterilized with gamma irradiation and exposed to a cariogenic challenge using a bacterial system with Streptococcus mutans. Depth and extension of wall lesions formed and the depth of outer lesions were measured by software coupled with light microscopy. Results: For wall lesion extension the ANOVA test showed differences between groups except between X-HI and SBMP (P= 0.294). The Tukey`s test of confidence intervals indicated smaller values for the CSEB group than for the others. For wall lesion depth the CSEB group also presented the smallest mean values of wall lesion depth when compared to the others (P< 0.0001) for all comparisons using Tukey`s test. Regarding outer lesion depth, all adhesives showed statistically similar behavior. SEM evaluation of the morphologic appearance of caries lesions confirmed the statistical results showing small caries lesion development for cavities restored with CSEB adhesive system, which may suggest that this adhesive system interdiffusion zone promoted a good interaction with subjacent dentin protecting the dental tissues from recurrent caries. (Am J Dent 2010;23:93-97).

Development and implementation of the population Fisher information matrix for the evaluation of population pharmacokinetic designs.

In population pharmacokinetic studies, the precision of parameter estimates is dependent on the population design. Methods based on the Fisher information matrix have been developed and extended to population studies to evaluate and optimize designs. In this paper we propose simple programming tools to evaluate population pharmacokinetic designs. This involved the development of an expression for the Fisher information matrix for nonlinear mixed-effects models, including estimation of the variance of the residual error. We implemented this expression as a generic function for two software applications: S-PLUS and MATLAB. The evaluation of population designs based on two pharmacokinetic examples from the literature is shown to illustrate the efficiency and the simplicity of this theoretic approach. Although no optimization method of the design is provided, these functions can be used to select and compare population designs among a large set of possible designs, avoiding a lot of simulations.

Power of the joint segregation analysis method for testing mixed major-gene and polygene inheritance models of quantitative traits

Understanding the genetic architecture of quantitative traits can greatly assist the design of strategies for their manipulation in plant-breeding programs. For a number of traits, genetic variation can be the result of segregation of a few major genes and many polygenes (minor genes). The joint segregation analysis (JSA) is a maximum-likelihood approach for fitting segregation models through the simultaneous use of phenotypic information from multiple generations. Our objective in this paper was to use computer simulation to quantify the power of the JSA method for testing the mixed-inheritance model for quantitative traits when it was applied to the six basic generations: both parents (P-1 and P-2), F-1, F-2, and both backcross generations (B-1 and B-2) derived from crossing the F-1 to each parent. A total of 1968 genetic model-experiment scenarios were considered in the simulation study to quantify the power of the method. Factors that interacted to influence the power of the JSA method to correctly detect genetic models were: (1) whether there were one or two major genes in combination with polygenes, (2) the heritability of the major genes and polygenes, (3) the level of dispersion of the major genes and polygenes between the two parents, and (4) the number of individuals examined in each generation (population size). The greatest levels of power were observed for the genetic models defined with simple inheritance; e.g., the power was greater than 90% for the one major gene model, regardless of the population size and major-gene heritability. Lower levels of power were observed for the genetic models with complex inheritance (major genes and polygenes), low heritability, small population sizes and a large dispersion of favourable genes among the two parents; e.g., the power was less than 5% for the two major-gene model with a heritability value of 0.3 and population sizes of 100 individuals. The JSA methodology was then applied to a previously studied sorghum data-set to investigate the genetic control of the putative drought resistance-trait osmotic adjustment in three crosses. The previous study concluded that there were two major genes segregating for osmotic adjustment in the three crosses. Application of the JSA method resulted in a change in the proposed genetic model. The presence of the two major genes was confirmed with the addition of an unspecified number of polygenes.

Linguistic evaluation method for the environmental assessment of infrastructure projects

A soft linguistic evaluation method is proposed for the environmental assessment of physical infrastructure projects based on fuzzy relations. Infrastructure projects are characterized in terms of linguistic expressions of 'performance' with respect to factors or impacts and the 'importance' of those factors/impacts. A simple example is developed to illustrate the method in the context of three road infrastructure projects assessed against five factors/impacts. In addition, a means to include hard or crisp factors is presented and illustrated with respect to a sixth factor.

Hydro energy systems management in Portugal: Profit-based evaluation of a mixed-integer nonlinear approach

In this paper, a novel mixed-integer nonlinear approach is proposed to solve the short-term hydro scheduling problem in the day-ahead electricity market, considering not only head-dependency, but also start/stop of units, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. Results from a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro energy systems are presented, showing that the proposedmixed-integer nonlinear approach is proficient. Conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interlaboratory validation of an environmental monitoring method for trace analysis of endocrine disrupting compounds

Environmental pollution continues to be an emerging study field, as there are thousands of anthropogenic compounds mixed in the environment whose possible mechanisms of toxicity and physiological outcomes are of great concern. Developing methods to access and prioritize the screening of these compounds at trace levels in order to support regulatory efforts is, therefore, very important. A methodology based on solid phase extraction followed by derivatization and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry analysis was developed for the assessment of four endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) in water matrices: bisphenol A, estrone, 17b-estradiol and 17a-ethinylestradiol. The study was performed, simultaneously, by two different laboratories in order to evaluate the robustness of the method and to increase the quality control over its application in routine analysis. Validation was done according to the International Conference on Harmonisation recommendations and other international guidelines with specifications for the GC-MS methodology. Matrix-induced chromatographic response enhancement was avoided by using matrix-standard calibration solutions and heteroscedasticity has been overtaken by a weighted least squares linear regression model application. Consistent evaluation of key analytical parameters such as extraction efficiency, sensitivity, specificity, linearity, limits of detection and quantification, precision, accuracy and robustness was done in accordance with standards established for acceptance. Finally, the application of the optimized method in the assessment of the selected analytes in environmental samples suggested that it is an expedite methodology for routine analysis of EDC residues in water matrices.