Addressing inequalities in physical activity participation: Implications for public health policy and practice

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the characteristics of those doing no moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) (0days/week), some MVPA (1-4days/week) and sufficient MVPA (≥5days/week) to meet the guidelines in order to effectively develop and target PA interventions to address inequalities in participation.

METHOD: A population survey (2010/2011) of 4653 UK adults provided data on PA and socio-demographic characteristics. An ordered logit model investigated the covariates of 1) participating in no PA, 2) participating in some PA, and 3) meeting the PA guidelines. Model predictions were derived for stereotypical subgroups to highlight important policy and practice implications.

RESULTS: Mean age of participants was 45years old (95% CI 44.51, 45.58) and 42% were male. Probability forecasting showed that males older than 55years of age (probability=0.20; 95% CI 0.11, 0.28), and both males (probability=0.31; 95% CI 0.17, 0.45) and females (probability=0.38; 95% CI 0.27, 0.50) who report poor health are significantly more likely to do no PA.

CONCLUSIONS: Understanding the characteristics of those doing no MVPA and some MVPA could help develop population-level interventions targeting those most in need. Findings suggest that interventions are needed to target older adults, particularly males, and those who report poor health.

Characterisation of the frequent exacerbator phenotype in COPD patients in a large UK primary care population

BACKGROUND: The 'frequent exacerbator' is recognised as an important phenotype in COPD. Current understanding about this phenotype comes from prospective longitudinal clinical trials in secondary/tertiary care with little information reported in primary care populations.

AIMS: To characterize the frequent-exacerbator phenotype and identify associated risk factors in a large UK primary care COPD population.

METHODS: Using a large database of primary care patients from 80 UK general practices, patients were categorised using GOLD 2014 criteria into high and low risk groups based on exacerbation history. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to investigate covariates associated with the frequent-exacerbator phenotype and risk of experiencing a severe exacerbation (leading to hospitalisation).

RESULTS: Of the total study population (n = 9219), 2612 (28%) fulfilled the criteria for high risk frequent-exacerbators. Independent risk factors (adjusted odds ratio [95% CI]) for ≥2 exacerbations were: most severely impaired modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) dyspnoea score (mMRC grade 4: 4.37 [2.64-7.23]), lower FEV1 percent predicted (FEV1 <30%: 2.42 [1.61-3.65]), co-morbid cardiovascular disease (1.42 [1.19-1.68]), depression (1.56 [1.22-1.99]) or osteoporosis (1.54 [1.19-2.01]), and female gender (1.20 [1.01-1.43]). Older patients (≥75 years), those with most severe lung impairment (FEV1 <30%), those with highest mMRC score and those with co-morbid osteoporosis were identified as most at risk of experiencing exacerbations requiring hospitalisation.

CONCLUSIONS: Although COPD exacerbations occur across all grades of disease severity, female patients with high dyspnoea scores, more severely impaired lung function and co-morbidities are at greatest risk. Elderly patients, with severely impaired lung function, high mMRC scores and osteoporosis are associated with experience of severe exacerbations requiring hospitalisation.

Parent ratings of child cognition and language compared with Bayley-III in preterm 3-year-olds

Background
Parent ratings on questionnaires may provide valid and cost-effective tools for screening cognitive development of children at risk of developmental delay.

Aims
In this study, we examined the convergent validity of combining parent-based reports of non-verbal cognitive abilities (PARCA3) and verbal abilities (CDI-III) in relation to the Bayley-III cognitive scale in 3-year-olds born late pre-term.

Methods
Mothers of 185 late-preterm children were asked to complete the PARCA3 and the CDI-III shortly before children reached age three; children were then assessed using the Bayley-III close to their third birthday.

Results
The two maternal questionnaires were significantly and moderately correlated with the Bayley-III cognitive scores. Together the maternal ratings accounted for 15% of the variance in the Bayley-III cognitive scores, after controlling for other covariates in regression analysis. In particular, the PARCA3 contributed significantly to explain variance in the Bayley-III cognitive scores when controlling for the CDI-III. However, the CDI-III was also independently associated with the Bayley-III cognitive scores.

Conclusions
Parent ratings of child cognition and language together may provide cost-effective screening of development in “at risk” preschoolers.

Bayesian network data imputation with application to survival tree analysis

Retrospective clinical datasets are often characterized by a relatively small sample size and many missing data. In this case, a common way for handling the missingness consists in discarding from the analysis patients with missing covariates, further reducing the sample size. Alternatively, if the mechanism that generated the missing allows, incomplete data can be imputed on the basis of the observed data, avoiding the reduction of the sample size and allowing methods to deal with complete data later on. Moreover, methodologies for data imputation might depend on the particular purpose and might achieve better results by considering specific characteristics of the domain. The problem of missing data treatment is studied in the context of survival tree analysis for the estimation of a prognostic patient stratification. Survival tree methods usually address this problem by using surrogate splits, that is, splitting rules that use other variables yielding similar results to the original ones. Instead, our methodology consists in modeling the dependencies among the clinical variables with a Bayesian network, which is then used to perform data imputation, thus allowing the survival tree to be applied on the completed dataset. The Bayesian network is directly learned from the incomplete data using a structural expectation–maximization (EM) procedure in which the maximization step is performed with an exact anytime method, so that the only source of approximation is due to the EM formulation itself. On both simulated and real data, our proposed methodology usually outperformed several existing methods for data imputation and the imputation so obtained improved the stratification estimated by the survival tree (especially with respect to using surrogate splits).

Genetic risk factors affecting mitochondrial function are associated with kidney disease in people with Type 1 diabetes

AIM: To evaluate the association with diabetic kidney disease of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that may contribute to mitochondrial dysfunction.

METHODS: The mitochondrial genome and 1039 nuclear genes that are integral to mitochondrial function were investigated using a case (n=823 individuals with diabetic kidney disease) vs. control (n=903 individuals with diabetes and no renal disease) approach. All people included in the analysis were of white European origin and were diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes before the age of 31 years. Replication was conducted in 5093 people with similar phenotypes to those of the discovery collection. Association analyses were performed using the plink genetic analysis toolset, with adjustment for relevant covariates.

RESULTS: A total of 25 SNPs were evaluated in the mitochondrial genome, but none were significantly associated with diabetic kidney disease or end-stage renal disease. A total of 38 SNPs in nuclear genes influencing mitochondrial function were nominally associated with diabetic kidney disease and 16 SNPS were associated with end-stage renal disease, secondary to diabetic kidney disease, with meta-analyses confirming the same direction of effect. Three independent signals (seven SNPs) were common to the replication data for both phenotypes with Type 1 diabetes and persistent proteinuria or end-stage renal disease.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that SNPs in nuclear genes that influence mitochondrial function are significantly associated with diabetic kidney disease in a white European population

All-Cause Mortality up to and After Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke Events in European Middle-Aged Men The PRIME Study

Background and Purpose-The aim was to investigate prospectively the all-cause mortality risk up to and after coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke events in European middle-aged men.

Methods-The study population comprised 10 424 men 50 to 59 years of age recruited between 1991 and 1994 in France (N=7855) and Northern Ireland (N=2747) within the Prospective Epidemiological Study of Myocardial Infarction. Incident CHD and stroke events and deaths from all causes were prospectively registered during the 10-year follow-up. In Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis, CHD and stroke events during follow-up were used as time-dependent covariates.

Results-A total of 769 CHD and 132 stroke events were adjudicated, and 569 deaths up to and 66 after CHD or stroke occurred during follow-up. After adjustment for study country and cardiovascular risk factors, the hazard ratios of all-cause mortality were 1.58 (95% confidence interval 1.18-2.12) after CHD and 3.13 (95% confidence interval 1.98-4.92) after stroke.

Conclusions-These findings support continuous efforts to promote both primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Potentially harmful excipients in neonatal medicines: A pan-European observational study

Objectives We aimed to describe administration of eight potentially harmful excipients of interest (EOI)-parabens, polysorbate 80, propylene glycol, benzoates, saccharin sodium, sorbitol, ethanol and benzalkonium chloride-to hospitalised neonates in Europe and to identify risk factors for exposure. Methods All medicines administered to neonates during 1 day with individual prescription and demographic data were registered in a web-based point prevalence study. Excipients were identified from the Summaries of Product Characteristics. Determinants of EOI administration (geographical region, gestational age (GA), active pharmaceutical ingredient, unit level and hospital teaching status) were identified using multivariable logistical regression analysis. Results Overall 89 neonatal units from 21 countries participated. Altogether 2095 prescriptions for 530 products administered to 726 neonates were recorded. EOI were found in 638 (31%) prescriptions and were administered to 456 (63%) neonates through a relatively small number of products (n=142; 27%). Parabens, found in 71 (13%) products administered to 313 (43%) neonates, were used most frequently. EOI administration varied by geographical region, GA and route of administration. Geographical region remained a significant determinant of the use of parabens, polysorbate 80, propylene glycol and saccharin sodium after adjustment for the potential covariates including anatomical therapeutic chemical class of the active ingredient. Conclusions European neonates receive a number of potentially harmful pharmaceutical excipients. Regional differences in EOI administration suggest that EOI-free products are available and provide the potential for substitution to avoid side effects of some excipients.

Pharmacokinetics of melatonin in preterm infants

Aims: Preterm infants are deprived of the normal intra-uterine exposure to maternal melatonin and may benefit from replacement therapy. We conducted a pharmacokinetic study to guide potential therapeutic trials. Methods: Melatonin was administered to 18 preterm infants in doses ranging from 0.04-0.6μgkg^-1 over 0.5-6h. Pharmacokinetic profiles were analyzed individually and by population methods. Results: Baseline melatonin was largely undetectable. Infants receiving melatonin at 0.1μgkg^-1h^-1 for 2h showed a median half-life of 15.82h and median maximum plasma concentration of 203.3pgml^-1. On population pharmacokinetics, clearance was 0.045lh^-1, volume of distribution 1.098l and elimination half-life 16.91h with gender (P = 0.047) and race (P < 0.0001) as significant covariates. Conclusions: A 2h infusion of 0.1μgkg^-1h^-1 increased blood melatonin from undetectable to approximately peak adult concentrations. Slow clearance makes replacement of a typical maternal circadian rhythm problematic. The pharmacokinetic profile of melatonin in preterm infants differs from that of adults so dosage of melatonin for preterm infants cannot be extrapolated from adult studies. Data from this study can be used to guide therapeutic clinical trials of melatonin in preterm infants. © 2013 The British Pharmacological Society.

Using the hidden Markov model to capture quality of care in Lombardy geriatric wards

Quality of care is an important aspect of healthcare monitoring, which is used to ensure that the healthcare system is delivering care of the highest standard. With populations growing older there is an increased urgency in making sure that the healthcare delivered is of the highest standard. Healthcare providers are under increased pressure to ensure that this is the case with public and government demand expecting a healthcare system of the highest quality. Modelling quality of care is difficult to measure due to the many ways of defining it. This paper introduces a potential model which could be used to take quality of care into account when modelling length of stay. The Coxian phase-type distribution is used to model length of stay and the associated quality of care incorporated into the Coxian using a Hidden Markov model. Covariates are also introduced to determine their impact on the hidden level to find out what potentially can affect quality of care. This model is applied to geriatic patient data from the Lombardy region of Italy. The results obtained highlighted that bed numbers and the type of hospital (public or private) can have an effect on the quality of care delivered.

Discrete Conditional Phase-type Model Utilising a Multiclass Support Vector Machine for the Prediction of Retinopathy of Prematurity

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a rare disease in which retinal blood vessels of premature infants fail to develop normally, and is one of the major causes of childhood blindness throughout the world. The Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) model consists of two components, the conditional component measuring the inter-relationships between covariates and the survival component which models the survival distribution using a Coxian phase-type distribution. This paper expands the DC-Ph models by introducing a support vector machine (SVM), in the role of the conditional component. The SVM is capable of classifying multiple outcomes and is used to identify the infant's risk of developing ROP. Class imbalance makes predicting rare events difficult. A new class decomposition technique, which deals with the problem of multiclass imbalance, is introduced. Based on the SVM classification, the length of stay in the neonatal ward is modelled using a 5, 8 or 9 phase Coxian distribution.

Hospitalization in Geriatric Wards: Considerations on the Evaluation of the Outcome

Within a defined law framework, the Italian central health system dictates the standards for hospitalization to local care units, which are in turn allowed to establish their own effectiveness criteria. The appropriateness of the hospitalization decision is therefore predetermined at patients admission, whereas its effectiveness relies on the ex post patient well-being as a result of the complex system of reciprocal relations between patients and healthcare agents at the ward level. We consider the outcomes in geriatric wards referring to the national health system, with respect both to patients traits at the individual level and wards/hospital settings. The risk that models the healthcare outcome is accordingly adjusted for covariates at the different levels of analysis (Goldstein & Spiegelhalter, 1996), thus allowing to differentiate among outcomes in terms of the hospitalization structure and, when appropriate, of territorial aggregation.

Trace elements as predictors of preeclampsia in type 1 diabetic pregnancy

Preeclampsia (PE) affects approximately 5% of all pregnancies, but is increased several-fold in women with pre-gestational type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). Increased oxidative stress and altered maternal plasma trace elements that modulate the antioxidant system have been implicated in PE. In non-diabetic women, increased plasma copper and iron and decreased manganese, selenium, and zinc have been associated with PE in cross-sectional studies. In a longitudinal study, we hypothesized that plasma levels of trace elements differ between T1DM women with vs. without subsequent PE. Samples were collected during the first (gestation 12.2 ± 1.9 weeks, [mean ± SD]), second (21.6 ± 1.5 weeks), and third (31.5 ± 1.7 weeks) trimesters of pregnancy, all before the onset of PE. We compared 23 T1DM women who subsequently developed PE with 24 T1DM women who remained normotensive; and we included 19 non-diabetic (non-DM) normotensive pregnant women as reference controls. Trace elements were measured using inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy. In T1DM women with subsequent PE vs normotensive, only plasma zinc was significantly higher at the first trimester, while copper:zinc and copper:high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratios were higher throughout gestation (all P < .05). These findings persisted after adjustment for covariates. Higher copper:zinc ratios may contribute to oxidative stress in T1DM women who develop PE. Ratios of pro- to anti-oxidant factors may predict risk for PE in diabetic pregnancies more effectively than individual trace element levels.

Cord blood adipokines, neonatal anthropometrics and postnatal growth in offspring of Hispanic and Native American women with diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND: Offspring of women with diabetes mellitus (DM) during pregnancy have a risk of developing metabolic disease in adulthood greater than that conferred by genetics alone. The mechanisms responsible are unknown, but likely involve fetal exposure to the in utero milieu, including glucose and circulating adipokines. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of maternal DM on fetal adipokines and anthropometry in infants of Hispanic and Native American women.

METHODS: We conducted a prospective study of offspring of mothers with normoglycemia (Con-O; n = 79) or type 2 or gestational DM (DM-O; n = 45) pregnancies. Infant anthropometrics were measured at birth and 1-month of age. Cord leptin, high-molecular-weight adiponectin (HMWA), pigment epithelium-derived factor (PEDF) and C-peptide were measured by ELISA. Differences between groups were assessed using the Generalized Linear Model framework. Correlations were calculated as standardized regression coefficients and adjusted for significant covariates.

RESULTS: DM-O were heavier at birth than Con-O (3.7 ± 0.6 vs. 3.4 ± 0.4 kg, p = 0.024), but sum of skinfolds (SSF) were not different. At 1-month, there was no difference in weight, SSF or % body fat or postnatal growth between groups. Leptin was higher in DM-O (20.1 ± 14.9 vs. 9.5 ± 9.9 ng/ml in Con-O, p < 0.0001). Leptin was positively associated with birth weight (p = 0.0007) and SSF (p = 0.002) in Con-O and with maternal hemoglobin A1c in both groups (Con-O, p = 0.023; DM-O, p = 0.006). PEDF was positively associated with birth weight in all infants (p = 0.004). Leptin was positively associated with PEDF in both groups, with a stronger correlation in DM-O (p = 0.009). At 1-month, HMWA was positively associated with body weight (p = 0.004), SSF (p = 0.025) and % body fat (p = 0.004) across the cohort.

CONCLUSIONS: Maternal DM results in fetal hyperleptinemia independent of adiposity. HMWA appears to influence postnatal growth. Thus, in utero exposure to DM imparts hormonal differences on infants even without aberrant growth.

Seasonality of Plasmodium falciparum transmission: a systematic review

Background: Although Plasmodium falciparum transmission frequently exhibits seasonal patterns, the drivers of malaria seasonality are often unclear. Given the massive variation in the landscape upon which transmission acts, intra-annual fluctuations are likely influenced by different factors in different settings. Further, the presence of potentially substantial inter-annual variation can mask seasonal patterns; it may be that a location has "strongly seasonal" transmission and yet no single season ever matches the mean, or synoptic, curve. Accurate accounting of seasonality can inform efficient malaria control and treatment strategies. In spite of the demonstrable importance of accurately capturing the seasonality of malaria, data required to describe these patterns is not universally accessible and as such localized and regional efforts at quantifying malaria seasonality are disjointed and not easily generalized. 

Methods: The purpose of this review was to audit the literature on seasonality of P. falciparum and quantitatively summarize the collective findings. Six search terms were selected to systematically compile a list of papers relevant to the seasonality of P. falciparum transmission, and a questionnaire was developed to catalogue the manuscripts. 

Results and discussion: 152 manuscripts were identified as relating to the seasonality of malaria transmission, deaths due to malaria or the population dynamics of mosquito vectors of malaria. Among these, there were 126 statistical analyses and 31 mechanistic analyses (some manuscripts did both). 

Discussion: Identified relationships between temporal patterns in malaria and climatological drivers of malaria varied greatly across the globe, with different drivers appearing important in different locations. Although commonly studied drivers of malaria such as temperature and rainfall were often found to significantly influence transmission, the lags between a weather event and a resulting change in malaria transmission also varied greatly by location. 

Conclusions: The contradicting results of studies using similar data and modelling approaches from similar locations as well as the confounding nature of climatological covariates underlines the importance of a multi-faceted modelling approach that attempts to capture seasonal patterns at both small and large spatial scales.

Single nucleotide polymorphisms in the APCS gene influence geographic atrophy secondary to VEGF inhibition therapy in neovascular macular degeneration.

Introduction: Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a leading cause of vision loss in the elderly mostly due to the development of neovascular AMD (nAMD) or geographic atrophy (GA). Intravitreal injections of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) agents are an effective therapeutic option for nAMD. Following anti-VEGF treatments, increased atrophy of the retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) and choriocapillaries that resembles GA has been reported. We sought to evaluate the underlying genetic influences that may contribute to this process. Methods: We selected 68 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from genes previously identified as susceptibility factors in AMD, along with 43 SNPs from genes encoding the VEGF protein and its cognate receptors as this pathway is targeted by treatment. We enrolled 467 consecutive patients (Feb 2009 to October 2011) with nAMD who received anti-VEGF therapy. The acutely presenting eye was designated as the study eye and retinal tomograms graded for macular atrophy at study exit. Statistical analysis was performed using PLINK to identify SNPs with a P value < 0.01. Logistic regression models with macular atrophy as dependent variable were fitted with age, gender, smoking status, common genetic risk factors and the identified SNPs as explanatory variables. Results: Grading for macular atrophy was available in 304 study eyes and 70% (214) were classified as showing macular atrophy. In the unadjusted analysis we observed significant associations between macular atrophy and two independent SNPs in the APCS gene: rs6695377: odds ratio (OR) = 1.98; 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.23, 3.19; P = 0.004; rs1446965: OR = 2.49, CI: 1.29, 4.82; P = 0.006 and these associations remained significant after adjustment for covariates. Conclusions: VEGF is a mitogen and growth factor for choroidal blood vessels and the RPE and its inhibition could lead to atrophy of these key tissues. Anti-VEGF treatment can interfere with ocular vascular maintenance and may be associated with RPE and choroidal atrophy. As such, these medications, which block the effects of VEGF, may influence the development of GA. The top associated SNPs are found in the APCS gene, a highly conserved glycoprotein that encodes Serum amyloid P (SAP) which opsonizes apoptotic cells. SAP can bind to and activate complement components via binding to C1q, a mechanism by which SAP may remove cellular debris, affecting regulation of the three complement pathways.