Prevalence of antibodies to human herpesvirus-8 in populations with and without risk for infection in São Paulo State

Human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8) is a newly described herpesvirus that is etiologically associated with all forms of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS). Seroepidemiological studies have shown high prevalence rates of HHV-8 antibodies among men who have sex with men (MSM) and AIDS patients, African children, Brazilian Amerindians, and elderly individuals in certain regions of Europe. The aim of the present study was to determine the prevalence of HHV-8 antibodies in healthy children and young adults from different cities in São Paulo State, and in a population at high risk for HHV-8 infection: HIV-negative MSM, and AIDS patients with and without KS. Antibodies to HHV-8 latency-associated nuclear antigen and lytic-phase antigens were detected by immunofluorescence assays. In 643 healthy children and young adults from the general population attending a vaccination program for yellow fever in ten different cities in São Paulo State, the prevalence of HHV-8 antibodies detected by the presence of latent or lytic antigens ranged from 1.0 to 4.1% in the different age groups (mean = 2.5%). In the MSM group, the prevalence was 31/95 (32.6%). In the group of patients with AIDS, the prevalence was 39.2% (51/130) for non-KS patients and 98.7% (77/78) for AIDS patients with the diagnosis of KS confirmed by histopathological examination. We conclude that HHV-8 has a restricted circulation among healthy children and young adults in the general population of São Paulo State and a high prevalence among MSM and AIDS patients.

Preservation of graft function in low-risk living kidney transplant recipients treated with a combination of sirolimus and cyclosporine

The use of sirolimus (SRL) in combination with full doses of cyclosporin A (CsA) results in reduced one-year kidney allograft function, which is associated with shorter long-term allograft survival. We determined the effect of reduced CsA exposure on graft function in patients receiving SRL and prednisone. Ninety recipients of living kidney transplants receiving SRL (2 mg/day, po) were compared to 35 recipients receiving azathioprine (AZA, 2 mg kg-1 day-1, po). All patients also received CsA (8-10 mg kg-1 day-1, po) and prednisone (0.5 mg kg-1 day-1). Efficacy end-point was a composite of biopsy-confirmed acute rejection, graft loss, or death at one year. Graft function was measured by creatinine, creatinine clearance, and graft function deterioration between 3 and 12 months (delta1/Cr). CsA concentrations in patients receiving SRL were 26% lower. No differences in one-year composite efficacy end-point were observed comparing SRL and AZA groups (18 vs 20%) or in the incidence of biopsy-proven acute rejection (14.4 and 14.3%). There were no differences in mean ± SD creatinine (1.65 ± 0.46 vs 1.60 ± 0.43 mg/dl, P = 0.48) or calculated creatinine clearances (61 ± 15 vs 62 ± 13 ml/min, P = 0.58) at one year. Mean ± SD delta1/Cr (-11 ± 17 vs -14 ± 15%, P = 0.7) or the percentage of patients with >20% (26 vs 31%, P = 0.6) or >30% delta1/Cr (19 vs 17%, P = 1) did not differ between the two groups. The use of 2-mg fixed oral doses of SRL and reduced CsA exposure was effective in preventing acute rejection and preserving allograft function.

Impact of initial exposure to calcineurin inhibitors on kidney graft function of patients at high risk to develop delayed graft function

We conducted a retrospective analysis of the influence of full doses of calcineurin inhibitors [8-10 mg kg-1 day-1 cyclosporine (N = 80), or 0.2-0.3 mg kg-1 day-1 tacrolimus (N = 68)] administered from day 1 after transplantation on the transplant outcomes of a high-risk population. Induction therapy was used in 13% of the patients. Patients also received azathioprine (2 mg kg-1 day-1, N = 58) or mycophenolate mofetil (2 g/day, N = 90), and prednisone (0.5 mg kg-1 day-1, N = 148). Mean time on dialysis was 79 ± 41 months, 12% of the cases were re-transplants, and 21% had panel reactive antibodies >10%. In 43% of donors the cause of death was cerebrovascular disease and 27% showed creatinine above 1.5 mg/dL. The incidence of slow graft function (SGF) and delayed graft function (DGF) was 15 and 60%, respectively. Mean time to last dialysis and to nadir creatinine were 18 ± 15 and 34 ± 20 days, respectively. Mean creatinine at 1 year after transplantation was 1.48 ± 0.50 mg/dL (DGF 1.68 ± 0.65 vs SGF 1.67 ± 0.66 vs immediate graft function (IGF) 1.41 ± 0.40 mg/dL, P = 0.089). The incidence of biopsy-confirmed acute rejection was 22% (DGF 31%, SGF 10%, IGF 8%). One-year patient and graft survival was 92.6 and 78.4%, respectively. The incidence of cytomegalovirus disease, post-transplant diabetes mellitus and malignancies was 28, 8.1, and 0%, respectively. Compared to previous studies, the use of initial full doses of calcineurin inhibitors without antibody induction in patients with SGF or DGF had no negative impact on patient and graft survival.

Risk factors for excess weight loss and hypernatremia in exclusively breast-fed infants

Data were prospectively obtained from exclusively breast-fed healthy term neonates at birth and from healthy mothers with no obstetric complication to determine risk factors for excess weight loss and hypernatremia in exclusively breast-fed infants. Thirty-four neonates with a weight loss > or = 10% were diagnosed between April 2001 and January 2005. Six of 18 infants who were eligible for the study had hypernatremia. Breast conditions associated with breast-feeding difficulties (P < 0.05), primiparity (P < 0.005), less than four stools (P < 0.001), pink diaper (P < 0.001), delay at initiation of first breast giving (P < 0.01), birth by cesarean section (P < 0.05), extra heater usage (P < 0.005), extra heater usage among mothers who had appropriate conditions associated with breast-feeding (P < 0.001), mean weight loss in neonates with pink diaper (P < 0.05), mean uric acid concentration in neonates with pink diaper (P < 0.0001), fever in hypernatremic neonates (P < 0.02), and the correlation of weight loss with both serum sodium and uric acid concentrations (P < 0.02) were determined. Excessive weight loss occurs in exclusively breast-fed infants and can be complicated by hypernatremia and other morbidities. Prompt initiation of breast-feeding after delivery and prompt intervention if problems occur with breast-feeding, in particular poor breast attachment, breast engorgement, delayed breast milk "coming in", and nipple problems will help promote successful breast-feeding. Careful follow-up of breast-feeding dyads after discharge from hospital, especially regarding infant weight, is important to help detect inadequate breast-feeding. Environmental factors such as heaters may exacerbate infant dehydration.

Prenatal and perinatal risk factors for bipolar disorder

Bipolar disorder (BPD) is a severe mental disorder associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. Prenatal insults have been shown to be associated with later development of mental disorders and there is a growing interest in the potential role of prenatal and perinatal risk factors in the development of BPD. The aims of this thesis were to describe the overall study design of the Finnish Prenatal Study of Bipolar Disorders (FIPS-B) and demographic characteristics of the sample. Furthermore, it was aimed to examine the association of parental age, parental age difference, perinatal complications and maternal smoking during pregnancy with BPD. This thesis is based on FIPS-B, a nested case-control study using several nationwide registers. The cases included all people born in Finland between January 1st 1983 and December 31st 1998 and diagnosed with BPD according to the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register (FHDR) before December 31st 2008. Controls for this study were people who were without BPD, schizophrenia or diagnoses related to these disorders, identified from the Population Register Centre (PRC), and matched two-fold to the cases on sex, date of birth (+/- 30 days), and residence in Finland on the first day of diagnosis of the matched case. Conditional logistic regression models were used to examine the association between risk factors and BPD. This study included 1887 BPD cases and 3774 matched controls. The mean age at diagnosis was 19.3 years and females accounted for 68% of the cases. Mothers with the lowest educational level had the highest odds of having BPD in offspring. Being born in Eastern and Southern region of Finland increased the odds of having BPD later in life. A U-shaped distribution of odds ratio was observed between paternal age and BPD in the unadjusted analysis. Maternal age and parental age difference was not associated with BPD. Birth by planned caesarean section was associated with increased odd of BPD. Smoking during pregnancy was not associated with BPD in the adjusted analyses. Region of birth and maternal educational level were associated with BPD. Both young and old father’s age was associated with BPD. Most perinatal complications and maternal smoking during pregnancy were not associated with BPD. The findings of this thesis, considered together with previous literature, suggest that the pre- and perinatal risk factor profile varies among different psychiatric disorders.

Association between the -174 G/C promoter polymorphism of the interleukin-6 gene and cardiovascular disease risk factors in Brazilian older women

In worldwide studies, interleukin-6 (IL-6) is implicated in age-related disturbances. The aim of the present report was to determine the possible association of IL-6 -174 C/G promoter polymorphism with the cytokine profile as well as with the presence of selected cardiovascular risk features. This was a cross-sectional study on Brazilian women aged 60 years or older. A sample of 193 subjects was investigated for impaired glucose regulation, diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. Genotyping was done by direct sequencing of PCR products. IL-6 and C-reactive protein were quantified by high-sensitivity assays. General linear regression models or the Student t-test were used to compare continuous variables among genotypes, followed by adjustments for confounding variables. The chi-square test was used to compare categorical variables. The genotypes were consistent with Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium proportions. In a recessive model, mean waist-to-hip ratio, serum glycated hemoglobin and serum glucose were markedly lower in C homozygotes (P = 0.001, 0.028, and 0.047, respectively). In a dominant hypothesis, G homozygotes displayed a trend towards higher levels of circulating IL-6 (P = 0.092). Non-parametric analysis revealed that impaired fasting glucose and hypertension were findings approximately 2-fold more frequent among G homozygous subjects (P = 0.042 and 0.043, respectively). Taken together, our results show that the IL-6 -174 G-allele is implicated in a greater cardiovascular risk. To our knowledge, this is the first investigation of IL-6 promoter variants and age-related disturbances in the Brazilian elderly population.

The association of ACE gene D/I polymorphism with cardiovascular risk factors in a population from Rio de Janeiro

Our aim was to determine the frequencies of the angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) gene alleles D and I and any associations to cardiovascular risk factors in a population sample from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Eighty-four adults were selected consecutively during a 6-month period from a cohort subgroup of a previous large cross-sectional survey in Rio de Janeiro. Anthropometric data and blood pressure measurements, echocardiogram, albuminuria, glycemia, lipid profile, and ACE genotype and serum enzyme activity were determined. The frequency of the ACE*D and I alleles in the population under study, determined by PCR, was 0.59 and 0.41, respectively, and the frequencies of the DD, DI, and II genotypes were 0.33, 0.51, and 0.16, respectively. No association between hypertension and genotype was detected using the Kruskal-Wallis method. Mean plasma ACE activity (U/mL) in the DD (N = 28), DI (N = 45) and II (N = 13) groups was 43 (in males) and 52 (in females), 37 and 39, and 22 and 27, respectively; mean microalbuminuria (mg/dL) was 1.41 and 1.6, 0.85 and 0.9, and 0.6 and 0.63, respectively; mean HDL cholesterol (mg/dL) was 40 and 43, 37 and 45, and 41 and 49, respectively, and mean glucose (mg/dL) was 93 and 108, 107 and 98, and 85 and 124, respectively. A high level of ACE activity and albuminuria, and a low level of HDL cholesterol and glucose, were found to be associated with the DD genotype. Finally, the II genotype was found to be associated with variables related to glucose intolerance.

Utility of a novel risk score for prediction of ventricular tachycardia and cardiac death in chronic Chagas disease - the SEARCH-RIO study

The SEARCH-RIO study prospectively investigated electrocardiogram (ECG)-derived variables in chronic Chagas disease (CCD) as predictors of cardiac death and new onset ventricular tachycardia (VT). Cardiac arrhythmia is a major cause of death in CCD, and electrical markers may play a significant role in risk stratification. One hundred clinically stable outpatients with CCD were enrolled in this study. They initially underwent a 12-lead resting ECG, signal-averaged ECG, and 24-h ambulatory ECG. Abnormal Q-waves, filtered QRS duration, intraventricular electrical transients (IVET), 24-h standard deviation of normal RR intervals (SDNN), and VT were assessed. Echocardiograms assessed left ventricular ejection fraction. Predictors of cardiac death and new onset VT were identified in a Cox proportional hazard model. During a mean follow-up of 95.3 months, 36 patients had adverse events: 22 new onset VT (mean±SD, 18.4±4‰/year) and 20 deaths (26.4±1.8‰/year). In multivariate analysis, only Q-wave (hazard ratio, HR=6.7; P<0.001), VT (HR=5.3; P<0.001), SDNN<100 ms (HR=4.0; P=0.006), and IVET+ (HR=3.0; P=0.04) were independent predictors of the composite endpoint of cardiac death and new onset VT. A prognostic score was developed by weighting points proportional to beta coefficients and summing-up: Q-wave=2; VT=2; SDNN<100 ms=1; IVET+=1. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis optimized the cutoff value at >1. In 10,000 bootstraps, the C-statistic of this novel score was non-inferior to a previously validated (Rassi) score (0.89±0.03 and 0.80±0.05, respectively; test for non-inferiority: P<0.001). In CCD, surface ECG-derived variables are predictors of cardiac death and new onset VT.

Risk factors for pulmonary hypertension in patients receiving maintenance peritoneal dialysis

We investigated the risk factors for pulmonary hypertension (PH) in patients receiving maintenance peritoneal dialysis (MPD). A group of 180 end-stage renal disease patients (124 men and 56 women; mean age: 56.43±8.36) were enrolled in our study, which was conducted between January 2009 and June 2014. All of the patients received MPD treatment in the Dialysis Center of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University. Clinical data, laboratory indices, and echocardiographic data from these patients were collected, and follow-ups were scheduled bi-monthly. The incidence and relevant risk factors of PH were analyzed. The differences in measurement data were compared by t-test and enumeration data were compared with the χ2 test. Among the 180 patients receiving MPD, 60 were diagnosed with PH. The remaining 120 were regarded as the non-PH group. Significant differences were observed in the clinical data, laboratory indices, and echocardiographic data between the PH and non-PH patients (all P<0.05). Furthermore, hypertensive nephropathy patients on MPD showed a significantly higher incidence of PH compared with non-hypertensive nephropathy patients (P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that the proportion of internal arteriovenous fistula, C-reactive protein levels, and ejection fraction were the highest risk factors for PH in patients receiving MPD. Our study shows that there is a high incidence of PH in patients receiving MPD and hypertensive nephropathy patients have an increased susceptibility to PH.

Stress, social support, and health risk behaviours as mediators of the forgiveness-health relation /

The mediating roles of stress, social support, and health risk behaviours in the relationships between dispositional forgiveness and mental and physical health were examined. Participants were 748 undergraduate students (554 women, 194 men) entering their first year of studies at Brock University. Participants, ranging in age from 17 to 25 years, completed the Brock University First Year Health Study and were provided monetary compensation. Dispositional forgiveness, stress, social support, health risk behaviours, mental health, and physical health were measured using self-report methods. The data were analyzed separately for women and men because there were significant mean differences on many of the study'S variables. Analyses revealed that the mediated relationships between dispositional forgiveness and health were generally stronger for women than men. Stress was the most robust mediator of the forgiveness-health relation for both women and men. The only health risk behaviour that mediated the forgivenesshealth relation was physical fitness and this result was found for women only. Social support mediated several of the relationships between forgiveness and health but not others. Results were discussed with reference to the literature on forgiveness and health. Several directions for future research were offered, such as conducting longitudinal research designs to assess the direction of causality better, investigating moderator variables of the forgiveness-health relation, and building models, which incorporate multiple mediators using structural equation modelling techniques.

Risk-taking behaviours in adolescent boys and girls : sexuality and dietary health

This study examined adolescents' reported sexual and dietary health-risk behaviours and perceptions. Specifically, this study analyzed the data of 600 students (300 male~ 300 female) in grades 9, I 1, and OAC (mean, standard deviation). The mean age of the students in the sample is 16 with a standard deviation of 1.6. The study was a secondary analysis ofthe first-year data of a 3-year longitudinal study conducted by Youth Lifestyle Choices-Community University Research Alliance (YLC-CURA) on adolescents. To explore sexuality and dietary health, this study purposefully selected sections of the survey that represented sex and dieting behaviours of adolescents. Separate gender and age data analyses revealed different patterns among the variables. Specifically., findings revealed that adolescents who engaged in recent sexual activities were more likely to have a relatively more positive body image perception and were relatively more likely to engage in disordered eating. Across both genders and 3 age levels, adolescents reported that despite their unhealthy dietary habits they felt that dieting was not a high-risk behaviour. Results were discussed in terms of educational implication for sexual health programs.

The influence of recreational ball hockey play on cardiovascular risk factors in sedentary males

Introduction: The prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) is ever increasing in western industrialized societies. An individuals overall risk for CAD may be quantified by integrating a number of factors including, but not limited to, cardiorespiratory fitness, body composition, blood lipid profile and blood pressure. It might be expected that interventions aimed at improving any or all of these independent factors might improve an individual 's overall risk. To this end, the influence of standard endurance type exercise on cardiorespiratory fitness, body composition, blood lipids and blood pressure, and by extension the reduction of coronary risk factors, is well documented. On the other hand, interval training (IT) has been shown to provide an extremely powerful stimulus for improving indices of cardiorespiratory function but the influence of this training type on coronary risk factors is unknown. Moreover, the vast majority of studies investigating the effects of IT on fitness have used laboratory type training protocols. As a result of this, the influence of participation in interval-type recreational sports on cardiorespiratory fitness and coronary risk factors is unknown. Aims: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effectiveness of recreational ball hockey, a sport associated with interval-type activity patterns, on indices of aerobic function and coronary risk factors in sedentary men in the approximate age range of 30 - 60 years. Individual risk factors were compiled into an overall coronary risk factor score using the Framingham Point Scale (FPS). Methods: Twenty-four sedentary males (age range 30 - 60) participated in the study. Subject activity level was assessed apriori using questionnaire responses. All subjects (experimental and control) were assessed to have been inactive and sedentary prior to participation in the study. The experimental group (43 ± 3 years; 90 ± 3 kg) (n = 11) participated in one season of recreational ball hockey (our surrogate for IT). Member of this group played a total of 16 games during an 11 week span. During this time, the control group (43 ± 2 years; 89 ± 2 kg) (n = 11) performed no training and continued with their sedentary lifestyle. Prior to and following the ball hockey season, experimental and control subjects were tested for the following variables: 1) cardiorespiratory fitness (as V02 Max) 2) blood lipid profile 3) body composition 5) waist to hip ratio 6) blood glucose levels and 7) blood pressure. Subject V02 Max was assessed using the Rockport submaximal walking test on an indoor track. To assess body composition we determined body mass ratio (BMI), % body fat, % lean body mass and waist to hip ratio. The blood lipid profile included high density lipoprotein, low density lipoprotein and total cholesterol levels; in addition, the ratio of total cholesterol to high density was calculated. Blood triglycerides were also assessed. All data were analyzed using independent t - tests and all data are expressed as mean ± standard error. Statistical significance was accepted at p :S 0.05. Results: Pre-test values for all variables were similar between the experimental and control group. Moreover, although the intervention used in this study was associated with changes in some variables for subjects in the experimental group, subjects in the control group did not exhibit any changes over the same time period. BODY COMPOSITION: The % body fat of experimental subjects decreased by 4.6 ± 0.5%, from 28.1 ± 2.6 to 26.9 ± 2.5 % while that of the control group was unchanged at 22.7 ± 1.4 and 22.2 ± 1.3 %. However, lean body mass of experimental and control subjects did not change at 64.3 ± 1.3 versus 66.1 ± 1.3 kg and 65.5 ± 0.8 versus 64.7 ± 0.8 kg, respectively. In terms of body mass index and waist to hip ratio, neither the experimental nor the control group showed any significant change. Respective values for the waist to hip ratio and body mass index (pre and post) were as follows: 1 ± 0.1 vs 0.9 ± 0.1 (experimental) and 0.9 ± 0.1 versus 0.9 ± 0.1 (controls) while for BMI they were 29 ± 1.4 versus 29 ± 1.2 (experimental) and 26 ± 0.7 vs. 26 ± 0.7 (controls). CARDIORESPIRATORY FITNESS: In the experimental group, predicted values for absolute V02 Max increased by 10 ± 3% (i.e. 3.3 ± 0.1 to 3.6 ± 0.1 liters min -1 while that of control subjects did not change (3.4 ± 0.2 and 3.4 ± 0.2 liters min-I). In terms of relative values for V02 Max, the experimental group increased by 11 ± 2% (37 ± 1.4 to 41 ± 1.4 ml kg-l min-I) while that of control subjects did not change (41 ± 1.4 and 40 ± 1.4 ml kg-l min-I). BLOOD LIPIDS: Compared to pre-test values, post-test values for HDL were decreased by 14 ± 5 % in the experiment group (from 52.4 ± 4.4 to 45.2 ± 4.3 mg dl-l) while HDL data for the control group was unchanged (49.7 ± 3.6 and 48.3 ± 4.1 mg dl-l, respectively. On the other hand, LDL levels did not change for either the experimental or control group (110.2 ± 10.4 versus 112.3 ± 7.1 mg dl-1 and 106.1 ± 11.3 versus 127 ± 15.1 mg dl-1, respectively). Further, total cholesterol did not change in either the experimental or control group (181.3 ± 8.7 mg dl-1 versus 178.7± 4.9 mg dl-l) and 190.7 ± 12.2 versus 197.1 ± 16.1 mg dl-1, respectively). Similarly, the ratio of TC/HDL did not change for either the experimental or control group (3.8 ± 0.4 versus 4.5 ± 0.5 and 4 ± 0.4 versus 4.2 ± 0.4, respectively). Blood triglyceride levels were also not altered in either the experimental or control group (100.3 ± 19.6 versus 114.8 ± 15.3 mg dl-1 and 140 ± 23.5 versus 137.3 ± 17.9 mg dl-l, respectively). BLOOD GLUCOSE: Fasted blood glucose levels did not change in either the experimental or control group. Pre- and post-values for experimental and control groups were 92.5 ± 4.8 versus 93.3 ± 4.3 mg dl-l and 92.3 ± 11.3 versus 93.2 ± 2.6 mg dl-1 , respectively. BLOOD PRESSURE: No aspect of blood pressure was altered in either the experimental or control group. For example, pre- and post-test systolic blood pressures were 131 ± 2 versus 129 ± 2 mmHg (experimental) and 123 ± 2 and 125 ± 2 mmHg (controls), respectively. Pre- and post-test diastolic blood pressures were 84 ± 2 and 83 ± 2 mmHg (experimental) and 81 ± 1 versus 82 ± 1 mmHg, respectively. Similarly, calculated pulse pressure was not altered in the experimental or control as pre- and post-test values were 47 ± 1 versus 47 ± 2 mmlHg and 42 ± 2 versus 43 ± 2 mmHg, respectively. FRAMINGHAM POINT SCORE: The concerted changes reported above produced an increased risk in the Framingham Point Score for the subjects in the experimental group. For example, the pre- and post-test FPS increased from 1.4 ± 0.9 to 2.7 ± 0.7. On the other hand, pre- and post-test scores for the control group were 1.8 ± 1 versus 1.8 ± 0.9. Conclusions: Our data confirms previous studies showing that interval-type exercise is a useful intervention for increasing aerobic fitness. Moreover, the increase in V02 Max we found in response to limited participation in ball hockey (i.e. 16 games) suggests that recreational sport may help reduce this aspect of coronary risk in previously sedentary individual. On the other hand, our results showing little or no positive change in body composition, blood lipids or blood pressures suggest that one season of recreational sport in not in of itself a powerful enough stimulus to reduce the overall risk of coronary artery disease. In light of this, it is recommended that, in addition to participation in recreational sport, the performance of regular physical activity is used as an adjunct to provide a more powerful overall stimulus for decreasing coronary risk factors. LIMITATIONS: The increase in the FPS we found for the experimental group, indicative of an increased risk for coronary disease, was largely due to the large decrease in HDL we observed after compared to above one season of ball hockey. In light of the fact that cardiorespiratory fitness was increased and % body fat was decreased, as well as the fact that other parameters such as blood pressure showed positive (but non statistically significant) trends, the possibility that the decrease in HDL showed by our data was anomalous should be considered. FUTURE DIRECTIONS: The results of this study suggesting that recreational sport may be a potentially useful intervention in the reduction of CAD require to be corroborated by future studies specifically employing 1) more rigorous assessment of fitness and fitness change and 2) more prolonged or frequent participants.

Parent Prediction of Autism Spectrum Disorder in Infants At Risk: A Follow-up Study

Later-born siblings of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are considered at biological risk for ASD and the broader autism phenotype. Early screening may detect early signs of ASD and facilitate intervention as soon as possible. This follow-up study revisits and re-examines a second-degree autism screener for children at biological risk of autism, the Parent Observation Early Markers Scale (POEMS, Feldman et al., 2012). Using available follow-up information, 110 children (the original 108 infants plus 2 infants recruited after the completion of the original study) were divided into three groups: diagnosed group (n = 13), lost diagnosis group (n = 5), and undiagnosed group (n = 92). The POEMS continued to show acceptable predictive validity. The POEMS total scores and mean number of elevated items were significantly higher in the diagnosed group than the undiagnosed group. The lost diagnosis group did not differ from the undiagnosed group on POEMS total scores and elevated items at any age, but the lost diagnosis group had significantly lower total scores and number of elevated items than the diagnosed group starting at 18 months. Both ASD core and subsidiary behaviours differentiated the diagnosed and undiagnosed groups from 9−36 months of age. Using 70 as a cut-off score, sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV) were .69, .84, and .38, respectively. The study provides further evidence that the POEMS may serve as a low-cost early screener for ASD in at risk children and pinpoint specific developmental and behavioural problems that may be amenable to very early intervention.

The Shape of the Risk Premium: Evidence from a Semiparametric Garch Model.

We examine the relationship between the risk premium on the S&P 500 index return and its conditional variance. We use the SMEGARCH - Semiparametric-Mean EGARCH - model in which the conditional variance process is EGARCH while the conditional mean is an arbitrary function of the conditional variance. For monthly S&P 500 excess returns, the relationship between the two moments that we uncover is nonlinear and nonmonotonic. Moreover, we find considerable persistence in the conditional variance as well as a leverage effect, as documented by others. Moreover, the shape of these relationships seems to be relatively stable over time.

An assessment of potential public health risk associated with the extended survival of indicator and pathogenic bacteria in freshwater lake sediments

Microcosm studies were performed to evaluate the survival of Escherichia coli, Salmonella paratyphi and Vibrio parahaemolyticus in water and sediment collected from the freshwater region of Vembanad Lake (9 35◦N 76 25◦E) along the south west coast of India. All three test microorganisms showed significantly (p < 0.01) higher survival in sediment compared to overlying water. The survival in different sediment types with different particle size and organic carbon content revealed that sediment with small particle size and high organic carbon content could enhance their extended survival (p < 0.05). The results indicate that sediments of the Lake could act as a reservoir of pathogenic bacteria and exhibit a potential health hazard from possible resuspension and subsequent ingestion during recreational activities. Therefore, the assessment of bacterial concentration in freshwater Lake sediments used for contact and non contact recreation has of considerable significance for the proper assessment of microbial pollution of the overlying water, and for the management and protection of related health risk at specific recreational sites. Besides, assessment of the bacterial concentration in sediments can be used as a relatively stable indicator of long term mean bacterial concentration in the water column above