Modelação e previsão de vendas no setor do retalho de calçado

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Politécnico do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Logística Orientada por: Professora Doutora Patrícia Alexandra Gregório Ramos

Seroprevalência da Brucelose nos últimos cinco anos na Unidade Local de Saúde do Alto-Minho

A brucelose é uma zoonose com elevada importância, causada por bactérias gram-negativas que são altamente patogénicas para uma grande variedade de animais e humanos. Existem zonas endémicas onde esta se prolifera com mais facilidade. Neste estudo os dados são relativos ao distrito de Viana do Castelo, os dados são recolhidas da base de dados da Unidade Local de Saúde do Alto-Minho, uma zona não considerada endémica. Os animais infetados são a principal fonte de contaminação e dispersão da brucelose, é necessário uma reduzida carga bacteriana para ocorrer a infeção. Trata-se de uma doença que está longe de ser erradicada, impondo-se tomar medidas preventivas em relação à contaminação. Os testes usados na sua deteção podem ser alterados e melhorados de acordo com o estádio da doença. Na ULSAM são usados o teste de Wright e eventualmente a pesquisa microbiológica da bactéria Brucella. É pertinente saber o número de testes positivos que ocorrem por ano, se existe alguma sazonalidade relacionada com a doença, assim como, relacionar os parâmetros bioquímicos com um teste de Wright positivo. Os dados foram recolhidos entre o ano 2009-2013 com um número total de testes de 1035, dos quais o número total de positivos para o teste são 102, mas apenas trinta são positivos com significância. Os dados foram recolhidos através do programa Clinidata utilizado como base de armazenamento de dados da ULSAM e foram tratados estatisticamente com o programa SPSS juntamente com o Excel. Este estudo permitiu concluir que o número de casos em 2009 e 2010 era superior aos restantes anos, o que descreve uma tendência para diminuição do número de casos de brucelose atualmente no distrito de Viana do Castelo. Em relação a sazonalidade, os meses que apresentam uma percentagem superior a 50% em relação seroprevalência são os meses de Junho, Novembro e Dezembro. Os resultados revelam como declarado pela Organização Mundial de Saúde que o Distrito de Viana do Castelo não é uma zona endémica. Através da análise estatística foi possível concluir que um dos parâmetros bioquímicos, neste caso o número de leucócitos, poderá estar diretamente relacionado com um teste de Wright positivo, uma vez que, 37% da amostra de testes positivos revelam leucopenia.

A Leishmaniose visceral em Portugal Continental : 1999-2009

RESUMO - As alterações climáticas alteraram a incidência e distribuição mundial de zoonoses, ao modificarem o perfil epidemiológico dos seus vectores. A leishmaniose visceral é reemergente na bacia mediterrânica, sendo o seu impacto real subestimado. Em Portugal, é endémica em três regiões, de declaração obrigatória desde 1948 e o reservatório é o canídeo. O aumento da incidência da doença no cão e a escassez de informação epidemiológica tornou pertinente investigar a realidade nacional. A partir das bases de dados das notificações e dos grupos de diagnósticos homogéneos hospitalares, foram identificados todos os casos e, consultados todos os processos clínicos dos doentes com episódios de internamento nos hospitais do continente entre 1999-2009. Ocorreram 730 internamentos para 375 indivíduos na maioria: homens, eurocaucasianos, com em média, 27 anos e, residência em Lisboa e Vale do Tejo. A sintomatologia e comorbilidades dos doentes vão de encontro ao descrito internacionalmente. A doença foi subnotificada, com uma demora média de 19 dias. A letalidade foi de 5%. A taxa de incidência média do continente foi de 0,294/100000 habitantes, sem padrão de sazonalidade. O corredor endémico de Bortman construído apresentou picos com amplitudes de 2-3 anos. O mapeamento dos doentes evidenciou casos em regiões não endémicas acompanhando a distribuição da leishmaniose canina. Seria pertinente que futuras investigações construíssem uma modelação matemática que confirmasse a tendência do corredor endémico (pico em 2011?) para accionar um sistema de alerta nos Serviços de Saúde. Seria também útil a avaliação das condições geoclimáticas das localidades com casos para evidenciar possíveis similitudes no território. -------ABSTRACT - Climate changed the incidence and worldwide distribution of zoonosis while the epidemiological profile of their vectors was changing. Visceral leishmaniasis is reemerging in the Mediterranean basin and its real impact underestimated. In Portugal, it’s endemic in three regions; the notification occurs since 1948 and dog is the reservoir. The increased incidence of the canines’ disease and the scarcity of epidemiological information relevant investigate the national reality. From Notifications and Homogeneous’ Diagnostics Groups system databases, all cases were identified and also analyze all clinical processes of inpatients’ hospitals in 1999- 2009 in Portugal. 730 admissions occurred for 375 patients. In most they were men, Caucasians, with an average of 27 years and residency in Lisboa e Vale do Tejo. The symptoms and comorbilidades patient go against described internationally. The disease was under notified, with an average delay of 19 days. Lethality was 5%. The incidence rate was 0,294/100000 inhabitants, without seasonality. The endemic’s Bortman corridor presents peak amplitudes of 2-3 years. Mapping patient’s residency shows that cases’ distribution is similar to endemic canine leishmaniasis. It would be appropriate a research to build a mathematical modeling up to confirm the trend of corridor endemic (peak in 2011?), to trigger an alert system for health services. It would also be useful to evaluate the geo-climatics conditions of localities with cases to highlight possible similarities in the territory.

Short-term Wind Forecasting to Support Virtual Power Player Operation

This paper proposes a wind speed forecasting model that contributes to the development and implementation of adequate methodologies for Energy Resource Man-agement in a distribution power network, with intensive use of wind based power generation. The proposed fore-casting methodology aims to support the operation in the scope of the intraday resources scheduling model, name-ly with a time horizon of 10 minutes. A case study using a real database from the meteoro-logical station installed in the GECAD renewable energy lab was used. A new wind speed forecasting model has been implemented and it estimated accuracy was evalu-ated and compared with a previous developed forecast-ing model. Using as input attributes the information of the wind speed concerning the previous 3 hours enables to obtain results with high accuracy for the wind short-term forecasting.

An initial examination of the epidemiology of malaria in the State of Roraima, in the Brazilian Amazon Basin

This study firstly describes the epidemiology of malaria in Roraima, Amazon Basin in Brazil, in the years from 1991 to 1993: the predominance of plasmodium species, distribution of the blood slides examined, the malaria risk and seasonality; and secondly investigates whether population growth from 1962 to 1993 was associated with increasing risk of malaria. Frequency of malaria varied significantly by municipality. Marginally more malaria cases were reported during the dry season (from October to April), even after controlling for by year and municipality. Vivax was the predominant type in all municipalities but the ratio of plasmodium types varied between municipalities. No direct association between population growth and increasing risk of malaria from 1962 to 1993 was detected. Malaria in Roraima is of the "frontier" epidemiological type with high epidemic potential.

Seasonal variation of hepatitis A virus infection in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection constitutes a major public health problem in Brazil. The transmission of HAV is primarily by fecal-oral route so the water is an important vehicle of HAV dissemination. There is a great incidence of acute cases of hepatitis A in some areas of Brazil however the seasonal variation of these cases was not documented. The aim of this study was to determine the seasonality of HAV infection in Rio de Janeiro. From January 1999 to December 2001, 1731 blood samples were collected at the National Reference Center for Hepatitis Viruses in Brazil (NRCHV). These samples were tested by a commercial enzyme-immunoassay to detect anti-HAV IgM antibodies. Yearly positive rates were 33.74% in 1999, 32.19% in 2000, and 30.63% in 2001. A seasonal variation was recognized with the highest incidence in spring and summer. Furthermore a seasonal increase in incidence of HAV infection was found during the rainy season (December to March) because the index of rains is very high. It is concluded that HAV infections occur all year round with a peak during hot seasons with great number of rains.

American cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Pontal of Paranapanema - SP, Brazil: ecological and entomological aspects

American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) occurs in epidemic outbreaks and in sporadic cases with small annual variation in the Pontal of Paranapanema, SP. There is little research on the sandfly fauna of this region. The last outbreaks were related to the Movement of the Landless Workers (MST) and with the ecological tourism in preserved forest of the Parque Estadual do Morro do Diabo (PEMD). AIM: identification of the sandfly fauna within the PEMD, mainly anthropophilic species already incriminated as vectors of ACL, as well as their seasonality, hourly frequency and data of the behavior. M&M: The captures were undertaken with CDC light and Shannon traps from 6:00 pm to 10:00 pm, monthly from May 2000 to December 2001. The temperature and relative humidity data were registered at hourly intervals. RESULTS: The captured species were: Brumptomyia brumpti, Nyssomyia neivai, Nyssomyia whitmani, Pintomyia fischeri and Pintomyia pessoai. The P. pessoai predominated (34.39%) and N. neivai was less found (0.74%), only being captured in CDC traps. Shannon trap captured more sandflies (63.01%) than the CDC traps (36.99%). Despite the environmental degradation anthropophilic species, indicates favorable bioecological conditions for persistence of vectors and potential transmission of leishmaniasis.

Epidemiological aspects of the Brazilian spotted fever: seasonal activity of ticks collected in an endemic area in São Paulo, Brazil

Ticks were collected from vegetation and animals at monthly intervals during one year (1993-1994) in an endemic area of Brazilian spotted fever in the County of Pedreira, State of São Paulo. Six species of ticks were identified Amblyomma cajennense, Amblyomma cooperi, Amblyomma triste, Anocentor nitens, Rhipicephalus sanguineus and Boophilus microplus. Only the first species was sufficiently numerous to permit a quantitative study with seasonal activity, although the distribution and source of capture of other species were observed and are reported. This information is correlated with the epidemiology of tick-borne rickettsiosis.

Management of Costa Vicentina as a tourism destination for Portuguese surfers

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Viral etiology of acute respiratory infections among children in Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil

Although acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are a major cause of child morbidity and mortality in Southern Brazil, little information is available on their seasonality and viral etiology. This study was conducted on children under 5 years of age with ARI to assess viral etiology in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, from 1990 to 1992. A total of 862 nasopharyngeal secretion (NPS) samples were tested using indirect immunofluorescence. The results showed that 316 (36.6%) NPS samples were positive: 26.2% for RSV, 6% for adenovirus, 1.7% for influenzaviruses, 1.5% for parainfluenzaviruses, and 1.2% for mixed infection. The mean viral prevalence rates in out-patient services, emergency wards, and in-patient hospital wards were 26.7%, 53% and 42.3%, respectively. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and adenovirus accounted for 91.4 % of the viral diagnoses. RSV was more frequent in children under one year of age at the three levels of health care and was prevalent in infants under six months. Adenovirus was the most prevalent pathogen in hospitalized children, in 1992. Influenza A virus showed an increased prevalence with age among out-patient children. This study shows the annual occurence of viral respiratory infections in the coldest months, with a significant annual variation in the frequency of RSV infection.

Sandfly frequency in a clean and well-organized rural environment in the state of Paraná, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Sandflies caught in Santa Juliana Farm in Sarandi, State of Paraná, Brazil, were assessed in terms of their fauna, seasonality, and frequency in the homes and in shelters of domestic animals around the homes, as well as in the nearby forest. METHODS: In Santa Juliana Farm, there are no records of cases of ACL, differing from other relatively clean and organized areas where surveys of sandflies have been conducted in Paraná. Samples were collected with Falcão light traps, fortnightly from 22:00 to 02:00 hours, from November 2007 to November 2008. RESULTS: A total of 4,506 sandflies were captured, representing 13 species, predominantly Nyssomyia whitmani (71.8%). More sandflies were collected in the forest (52.6%) than outside the forest (residences and pigsty) (47.4%). However, Ny. whitmani was collected in greater numbers outside (38.3%) than inside the forest (33.5%). Most sandflies were collected in the warmer months and during periods with regular rainfall. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that cleaning and organization around the houses could reduce sandfly population in peridomicile. Constructing shelters for animal at a distance of approximately 100m from domiciles is recommended to prevent the invasion of sandflies, as this farm has an area of preserved forest, with wild animals and sandflies present to maintain the enzootic cycle of Leishmania.

Rotavirus G2P[4] and G2P[4]+[6] infections during norovirus gastroenteritis outbreak: summer season 2010, Brazil

IntroductionThis study aimed to monitor the seasonality of rotavirus infection, and gain insight into the variability of Brazilian strains.MethodsA total of 28 stool samples were analyzed from 698 revised cases of gastroenteritis during a norovirus outbreak in the summer of 2010 in Guarujá, Brazil. Diagnosis was performed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), and sequencing.ResultsRotavirus infection was detected in 17.9% (5/28) of samples; 4 samples were G2P[4] genotype, and one G2P[4]+P[6] genotype. G2 and P[4] sequences showed a genetic relationship to strains from India and Russia, respectively.ConclusionsThe seasonal pattern of rotavirus may be a consequence of human activity apart from climate factors.

Spatial and seasonal distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis in Dracena, a city in the western region of the State of São Paulo, Brazil, that is endemic with visceral leishmaniasis

Introduction Vector seasonality knowledge is important for monitoring and controlling of vector-borne diseases. Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lu. longipalpis) is the main vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum Nicolle, 1908, which is the causative agent of visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas. Methods Lu. longipalpis was monitored for 3 consecutive nights each month using light traps from the Centers for Disease Control in the peridomiciles and intradomiciles of 18 residences from January 2005 to December 2012 in the urban area of Dracena, a medium-sized city located in the western region of São Paulo, Brazil. Results A total of 54,820 Lu. longipalpis specimens were collected, and the proportion of positive samples was significantly higher in the peridomiciles than in the intradomiciles (p<0.05) in all 8 years of the study, except for 2005. The vector was present in all study years in the 9 sub-regions of the city, and the male/female ratio ranged from 3.19 to 4.26. The greatest vector abundance occurred in the first semester and peaked in March, confirming its seasonality. Conclusions The maintenance of this high abundance over an 8-year surveillance period demonstrates the vector adaptation to the urban conditions of the city. These characteristics present a major challenge for preventing human and canine contact with the vector and, consequently, controlling the spread of disease.

"Managing the impact of tourism in historic urban destinations. A sustainability approach: Case study of Sintra"

In this Work Project, it will be assessed how Sintra’s sustainability is affected by the consequences of the visitor flow on its urban historical center. Two research questions will support this case study: What is the main problem affecting Sintra as a tourism destination? How sustainable will Sintra be in the next 10-15 years? The main findings suggest Sintra faces an intense seasonal pressure on its historical city center and its sustainability might be seriously affected in the near future, whereby three domains of the destination deserve a serious strategy reassessment: promotion, management, and supply.

Tegumentary leishmaniasis in the State of Amazonas: what have we learned and what do we need?

This study evaluated the occurrence of American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) in the State of Amazonas, Brazil, in the last 30 years with emphasis on the last 10 years (2001 to 2010). The disease was predominantly observed in males (76.2%), in the 21- to 30-year-old age group (26.6%) and in extractive workers (43.7%); 3.3% of the cases were the mucosal form. The endemic channel shows the disease seasonality, with a predominance of cases at the beginning and end of each year. The number of cases by municipality in the period of 2001-2010 shows the maintenance of the endemic in the localities where the highest numbers of cases have always been registered, namely, Manaus, Rio Preto da Eva, Itacoatiara and Presidente Figueiredo. The comparison of data from 2001 to 2005 and from 2006 to 2010 showed the emergence of this disease in municipalities that had been previously unaffected. In the last years, there has been a significant increase in the activities of control, diagnosis and treatment of leishmaniasis in the State of Amazonas. In conclusion, the historical series of ATL analyzed in this study suggests that the transmission foci remain and are even expanding, though without continuous transmission in the intra- or peridomicile settings. Moreover, the disease will persist in the Amazon while the factors associated with infection acquisition relative to forest exploitation continue to have economic appeal. There is a real expectation of wide variations in disease incidence that can be influenced by climate and economic aspects.