Firm survival, uncertainty and financial frictions: Is there a financial uncertainty accelerator?

Using a large panel of unquoted UK firms over the period 2000-09, we examine the impact of firm-specific uncertainty on corporate failures. In this context we also distinguish between firms which are likely to be more or less dependent on bank finance as well as public and non-public companies. Our results document a significant effect of uncertainty on firm survival. This link is found to be more potent during the recent financial crisis compared with tranquil periods. We also uncover significant firm-level heterogeneity since the survival chances of bank-dependent and non-public firms are most affected by changes in uncertainty, especially during the recent global financial crisis.

Declaración sobre la crisis económica global y su impacto en las compras consorciadas (14 de junio de 2010)

Redactada en nombre de los muchos consorcios de bibliotecas de todo el mundo que participan en ICOLC, esta declaración tiene dos propósitos. Tiene la intención de ayudar a los editores y otros proveedores de contenido con los cuales tenemos acceso a los recursos de información electrónica (de ahora en adelante simplemente llamados editores) a entender mejor cómo la actual crisis económica única afecta a la comunidad de la información de todo el mundo. El segundo propósito es sugerir un abanico de propuestas que creemos son de beneficio común para las bibliotecas y los proveedores de servicios de información.

Theoretical notes on bubbles and the current crisis

We explore a view of the crisis as a shock to investor sentiment that led to the collapse of abubble or pyramid scheme in financial markets. We embed this view in a standard model of thefinancial accelerator and explore its empirical and policy implications. In particular, we show howthe model can account for: (i) a gradual and protracted expansionary phase followed by a suddenand sharp recession; (ii) the connection (or lack of connection!) between financial and real economicactivity and; (iii) a fast and strong transmission of shocks across countries. We also use the modelto explore the role of fiscal policy.

Post crisis challenges to bank regulation

The current crisis has swept aside not only the whole of the US investment banking industry butalso the consensual perception of banking risks, contagion and their implication for bankingregulation. As everyone agrees now, risks where mispriced, they accumulated in neuralgic pointsof the financial system, and where amplified by procyclical regulation as well as by the instabilityand fragility of financial institutions.The use of ratings as carved in stone and lack of adequate procedure to swiftly deal withsystemic institutions bankruptcy (whether too-big-to-fail, too complex to fail or too-many to fail).The current paper will not deal with the description and analysis of the crisis, already covered inother contributions to this issue will address the critical choice regulatory authorities will face. Inthe future regulation has to change, but it is not clear that it will change in the right direction. Thismay occur if regulatory authorities, possibly influenced by public opinion and political pressure,adopt an incorrect view of financial crisis prevention and management. Indeed, there are twoapproaches to post-crisis regulation. One is the rare event approach, whereby financial crises willoccur infrequently, but are inescapable.

CABO VERDE: DE UM “ESTADO INVIÁVEL” AO PRAGMATISMO NA POLÍTICA EXTERNA

O artigo procura compreender de forma sincrónica as linhas fundamentais da política externa de Cabo Verde e seus reflexos nas relações internacionais, abarcando o período, desde a independência à actualidade. A perspectiva central é a de que a independência em 1975 representou uma nova era para o Estado de Cabo Verde, embora se tenha propalado a ideia de um Estado inviável. A estratégia para ultrapassar esta situação passava por uma aposta activa nas relações internacionais, nomeadamente numa política externa pragmática que se ajustasse num quadro de concertação e interacção com outros Estados. Procuramos, através de uma abordagem interdisciplinar e interpretativa, analisar os fenómenos sociais-internacionais que se configuram na política externa cabo-verdiana, sabendo que estes se relacionam tanto no campo da história e da sociologia como no campo da ciência política e das relações internacionais. Propõe-se novos desafios para a política externa cabo-verdiana, numa conjuntura internacional abalada pela crise financeira, uma aposta para uma maior integração regional no continente africano, aproveitando de forma estratégica o continente como nova fronteira de desenvolvimento.

Three essays in risk management in financial institutions

The choice to adopt risk-sensitive measurement approaches for operational risks: the case of Advanced Measurement Approach under Basel II New Capital Accord This paper investigates the choice of the operational risk approach under Basel II requirements and whether the adoption of advanced risk measurement approaches allows banks to save capital. Among the three possible approaches for operational risk measurement, the Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA) is the most sophisticated and requires the use of historical loss data, the application of statistical tools, and the engagement of a highly qualified staff. Our results provide evidence that the adoption of AMA is contingent on the availability of bank resources and prior experience in risk-sensitive operational risk measurement practices. Moreover, banks that choose AMA exhibit low requirements for capital and, as a result might gain a competitive advantage compared to banks that opt for less sophisticated approaches. - Internal Risk Controls and their Impact on Bank Solvency Recent cases in financial sector showed the importance of risk management controls on risk taking and firm performance. Despite advances in the design and implementation of risk management mechanisms, there is little research on their impact on behavior and performance of firms. Based on data from a sample of 88 banks covering the period between 2004 and 2010, we provide evidence that internal risk controls impact the solvency of banks. In addition, our results show that the level of internal risk controls leads to a higher degree of solvency in banks with a major shareholder in contrast to widely-held banks. However, the relationship between internal risk controls and bank solvency is negatively affected by BHC growth strategies and external restrictions on bank activities, while the higher regulatory requirements for bank capital moderates positively this relationship. - The Impact of the Sophistication of Risk Measurement Approaches under Basel II on Bank Holding Companies Value Previous research showed the importance of external regulation on banks' behavior. Some inefficient standards may accentuate risk-taking in banks and provoke a financial crisis. Despite the growing literature on the potential effects of Basel II rules, there is little empirical research on the efficiency of risk-sensitive capital measurement approaches and their impact on bank profitability and market valuation. Based on data from a sample of 66 banks covering the period between 2008 and 2010, we provide evidence that prudential ratios computed under Basel II standards predict the value of banks. However, this relation is contingent on the degree of sophistication of risk measurement approaches that banks apply. Capital ratios are effective in predicting bank market valuation when banks adopt the advanced approaches to compute the value of their risk-weighted assets.

El capitalismo y sus crisis, ¿qué tipo de crisis?

El capitalismo está hoy atravesando un momento de turbulencias estructurales. Para unos se trata de una crisis económica, para otros de una crisis financiera y, aún para algún otro autor, mas bien debería hablarse de una crisis global de sociedad. ¿Pueden tan diversas opiniones converger en sus análisis? No es tarea fácil ya que cada cual suele hablar desde su propia perspectiva académica, cuando no, incluso circunscrito a un determinado enfoque teórico. Además, la mayoría de los debates han girado en torno a la economía y la corriente principal de la ciencia económica, la teoría neoclásica, por su propia naturaleza es incapaz de aportar más claridad. Los supuestos en los que basa sus modelos y teorías, que tanto cientifismo le han conferido, impiden precisamente captar la dimensión del fenómeno. De ahí salen algunas recetas para intentar paliar nuestros males, como por ejemplo, la sugerencia de que si dejamos actuar a los mercados, su lógica va a conducir a reparar los desajustes que se han venido produciendo. Pero, ¿qué son los mercados? ¿se trata de algo mágico que actúa con finalidad propia y con un objetivo específico?

A crise europeia: excepcionalidade econômica, gestão autoritária e emergência de formas ativas de resistência civil = The European crisis: economic exceptionality, authoritarian rulings and the emergence of active forms of civil resistance

Thirty years after neo-liberalism hegemony, the states shows its incapacity for driving democratically exceptional situations like global economical crisis. In this context, it seems a particularly interesting issue to exam the popular alternatives that are growing to reject the institutional paralysis. This work take these problems since European perspective, especially this one of Spain, and its scope is justify the new forms of civil disobedience that are growing. They are analyzed not like"paradoxes" of democracy, but like necessary instruments of participative democracy into a really exceptional scenario

Integration or a Greek tragedy?: How crisis spillovers affect Central and Eastern European States

Tutkielma siitä, miten Euroopan entisten sosialistivaltioiden markkinoiden integroituminen on edistynyt Kreikan ja EMU-alueen kanssa euron käyttöönoton ajalta. Tutkimus vertaa maiden markkinoiden reaktioita Kreikasta ja EMU-alueelta kantautuviin sokkeihin ennen ja jälkeen vuonna 2007 alkanutta kriisiä.

THE ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IN CREATING SUSTAINABILITY VALUE FOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN 2020 : a scenario planning approach

The growing importance of global sustainability issues has been causing many changes to the financial services industry. Facts such as climate change, social development and the financial crisis in 2008 have been making banks reconsider the manner that they consider environmental, social and economic factors in their decision-making process. At the same time, information technology (IT) has been transforming the financial service industry and its fast development has casted doubts on the way it should be managed within an organization. This current changing environment brings a number of uncertainties to the future that cannot be addressed using traditional forecasting techniques. This research investigates how IT can bring value to sustainability in the financial service industry in 2020. Through the use of a scenario planning technique, we analyzed how trends in the current environment (considering the relation between sustainability, financial institutions an IT) can lead to four different future scenarios. Then, we discussed how IT can improve a bank’s sustainability performance, considering the limitations of each scenario.

The us subprime crisis and stock market integration: evidence from the BRICS

The aim of this study is to examine the level of stock market co-movement in the BRICS countries and three major industrialized countries (Japan, UK and USA). While analyzing the interdependence and integration of markets, two subsets are examined: before (2000 – 2007) and during the global financial crisis (2007-2011). Generally, interdependence across markets is likely to increase during a highly volatile period. This is problematic because if it were true, the main benefit of international diversification would be reduced at times when it is most needed. The results reveal the dominant role of the US financial markets over the examined time period. Empirical studies of this research paper indicate that cross-market linkages have become slightly stronger during the ongoing subprime crisis than before crisis. However, results also show that an investor may obtain some international diversification benefits by investing especially in the BRICS countries despite the fact of unstable economic condition and growing globalization.

Mapping financial stability

The ongoing global financial crisis has demonstrated the importance of a systemwide, or macroprudential, approach to safeguarding financial stability. An essential part of macroprudential oversight concerns the tasks of early identification and assessment of risks and vulnerabilities that eventually may lead to a systemic financial crisis. Thriving tools are crucial as they allow early policy actions to decrease or prevent further build-up of risks or to otherwise enhance the shock absorption capacity of the financial system. In the literature, three types of systemic risk can be identified: i ) build-up of widespread imbalances, ii ) exogenous aggregate shocks, and iii ) contagion. Accordingly, the systemic risks are matched by three categories of analytical methods for decision support: i ) early-warning, ii ) macro stress-testing, and iii ) contagion models. Stimulated by the prolonged global financial crisis, today's toolbox of analytical methods includes a wide range of innovative solutions to the two tasks of risk identification and risk assessment. Yet, the literature lacks a focus on the task of risk communication. This thesis discusses macroprudential oversight from the viewpoint of all three tasks: Within analytical tools for risk identification and risk assessment, the focus concerns a tight integration of means for risk communication. Data and dimension reduction methods, and their combinations, hold promise for representing multivariate data structures in easily understandable formats. The overall task of this thesis is to represent high-dimensional data concerning financial entities on lowdimensional displays. The low-dimensional representations have two subtasks: i ) to function as a display for individual data concerning entities and their time series, and ii ) to use the display as a basis to which additional information can be linked. The final nuance of the task is, however, set by the needs of the domain, data and methods. The following ve questions comprise subsequent steps addressed in the process of this thesis: 1. What are the needs for macroprudential oversight? 2. What form do macroprudential data take? 3. Which data and dimension reduction methods hold most promise for the task? 4. How should the methods be extended and enhanced for the task? 5. How should the methods and their extensions be applied to the task? Based upon the Self-Organizing Map (SOM), this thesis not only creates the Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM), but also lays out a general framework for mapping the state of financial stability. This thesis also introduces three extensions to the standard SOM for enhancing the visualization and extraction of information: i ) fuzzifications, ii ) transition probabilities, and iii ) network analysis. Thus, the SOFSM functions as a display for risk identification, on top of which risk assessments can be illustrated. In addition, this thesis puts forward the Self-Organizing Time Map (SOTM) to provide means for visual dynamic clustering, which in the context of macroprudential oversight concerns the identification of cross-sectional changes in risks and vulnerabilities over time. Rather than automated analysis, the aim of visual means for identifying and assessing risks is to support disciplined and structured judgmental analysis based upon policymakers' experience and domain intelligence, as well as external risk communication.

The Cycle Times of Working Capital: Financial Value Chain Analysis Method

Interest towards working capital management increased among practitioners and researchers because the financial crisis of 2008 caused the deterioration of the general financial situation. The importance of managing working capital effectively increased dramatically during the financial crisis. On one hand, companies highlighted the importance of working capital management as part of short-term financial management to overcome funding difficulties. On the other hand, in academia, it has been highlighted the need to analyze working capital management from a wider perspective namely from the value chain perspective. Previously, academic articles mostly discussed working capital management from a company-centered perspective. The objective of this thesis was to put working capital management in a wider and more academic perspective and present case studies of the value chains of industries as instrumental in theoretical contributions and practical contributions as complementary to theoretical contributions and conclusions. The principal assumption of this thesis is that selffinancing of value chains can be established through effective working capital management. Thus, the thesis introduces the financial value chain analysis method which is employed in the empirical studies. The effectiveness of working capital management of the value chains is studied through the cycle time of working capital. The financial value chain analysis method employed in this study is designed for considering value chain level phenomena. This method provides a holistic picture of the value chain through financial figures. It extends the value chain analysis to the industry level. Working capital management is studied by the cash conversion cycle that measures the length (days) of time a company has funds tied up in working capital, starting from the payment of purchases to the supplier and ending when remittance of sales is received from the customers. The working capital management practices employed in the automotive, pulp and paper and information and communication technology industries have been studied in this research project. Additionally, the Finnish pharmaceutical industry is studied to obtain a deeper understanding of the working capital management of the value chain. The results indicate that the cycle time of working capital is constant in the value chain context over time. The cash conversion cycle of automotive, pulp and paper, and ICT industries are on average 70, 60 and 40 days, respectively. The difference is mainly a consequence of the different cycle time of inventories. The financial crisis of 2008 affected the working capital management of the industries similarly. Both the cycle time of accounts receivable and accounts payable increased between 2008 and 2009. The results suggest that the companies of the automotive, pulp and paper and ICT value chains were not able to self-finance. Results do not indicate the improvement of value chains position in regard to working capital management either. The findings suggest that companies operating in the Finnish pharmaceutical industry are interested in developing their own working capital management, but collaboration with the value chain partners is not considered interesting. Competition no longer occurs between individual companies, but between value chains. Therefore the financial value chain analysis method introduced in this thesis has the potential to support value chains in improving their competitiveness.

Trust Embedded Open Innovation: Human-Centricity in the Financial

Globalization and interconnectedness in the worldwide sphere have changed the existing and prevailing modus operandi of organizations around the globe and have challenged existing practices along with the business as usual mindset. There are no rules in terms of creating a competitive advantage and positioning within an unstable, constantly changing and volatile globalized business environment. The financial industry, the locomotive or the flagship industry of global economy, especially, within the aftermath of the financial crisis, has reached a certain point trying to recover and redefine its strategic orientation and positioning within the global business arena. Innovation has always been a trend and a buzzword and by many has been considered as the ultimate answer to any kind of problem. The mantra Innovate or Die has been prevailing in any organizational entity in a, sometimes, ruthless endeavour to develop cutting-edge products and services and capture a landmark position in the market. The emerging shift from a closed to an open innovation paradigm has been considered as new operational mechanism within the management and leadership of the company of the future. To that respect, open innovation has been experiencing a tremendous growth research trajectory by putting forward a new way of exchanging and using surplus knowledge in order to sustain innovation within organizations and in the level of industry. In the abovementioned reality, there seems to be something missing: the human element. This research, by going beyond the traditional narratives for open innovation, aims at making an innovative theoretical and managerial contribution developed and grounded on the on-going discussion regarding the individual and organizational barriers to open innovation within the financial industry. By functioning across disciplines and researching out to primary data, it debunks the myth that open innovation is solely a knowledge inflow and outflow mechanism and sheds light to the understanding on the why and the how organizational open innovation works by enlightening the broader dynamics and underlying principles of this fascinating paradigm. Little attention has been given to the role of the human element, the foundational pre-requisite of trust encapsulated within the precise and fundamental nature of organizing for open innovation, the organizational capabilities, the individual profiles of open innovation leaders, the definition of open innovation in the realms of the financial industry, the strategic intent of the financial industry and the need for nurturing a societal impact for human development. To that respect, this research introduces the trust-embedded approach to open innovation as a new insightful way of organizing for open innovation. It unveils the peculiarities of the corporate and individual spheres that act as a catalyst towards the creation of productive open innovation activities. The incentive of this research captures the fundamental question revolving around the need for financial institutions to recognise the importance for organizing for open innovation. The overarching question is why and how to create a corporate culture of openness in the financial industry, an organizational environment that can help open innovation excel. This research shares novel and cutting edge outcomes and propositions both under the prism of theory and practice. The trust-embedded open innovation paradigm captures the norms and narratives around the way of leading open innovation within the 21st century by cultivating a human-centricity mindset that leads to the creation of human organizations, leaving behind the dehumanization mindset currently prevailing within the financial industry.

Macroeconomic trouble and policy challenges in the wake of the financial bust

Contrasting with the 1929 great crisis, authorities intervened forcefully in 2008 to stop the disintegration of the financial system. Governments and central banks then sought to revise the prudential regulation in depth. It would be optimistic, however, to believe that prudential measures, alone, could deliver full economic recovery, at least in the countries that had been involved in the financial turmoil. Indeed, the collapse of the "state of confidence" and the negative effects of private debts on consumption and investment decisions have fed depressive forces and policy challenges which could hold for a while, even once the financial sector is made safe. On the one hand, the economic slowdown and the direct and indirect assistance provided by the governments to the private sectors are having a heavy impact on public finances, meanwhile, on the other hand, the massive amounts of money which artificially inflated the prices of housing and financial products could produce inflationary pressures in the post-crisis period, unless a new assets bubble is allowed for. Authorities could therefore be facing high unemployment in a damaged context of public deficits and inflationary pressures. The paper aims at discussing these new challenges. The inadequacy of inflation targets and fiscal orthodoxy in a depressed economy is emphasized, and the outlines of a Post Keynesian alternative policy are examined.