A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Analysis of marine bivalve shellfish from the fish market in Santos city, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, for Toxoplasma gondii

The aim of this study was to determine if Toxoplasma gondii are present in oysters (Crassostrea rhizophorae) and mussels (Mytella guyanensis) under natural conditions using a bioassay in mice and molecular detection methods. We first compared two standard protocols for DNA extraction, phenol-chloroform (PC) and guanidine-thiocyanate (GT), for both molluscs. A total of 300 oysters and 300 mussels were then acquired from the fish market in Santos city, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, between March and August of 2008 and divided into 60 groups of 5 oysters and 20 groups of 15 mussels. To isolate the parasite, five mice were orally inoculated with sieved tissue homogenates from each group of oysters or mussels. For molecular detection of T. gondii, DNA from mussels was extracted using the PC method and DNA from oysters was extracted using the GT method. A nested-PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) based on the amplification of a 155 bp fragment from the B1 gene of T. gondii was then performed. Eleven PCR-RFLP (Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism) markers, SAG1, SAG2, SAG3, BTUB, GRA6, c22-8, c29-2, L358, PK1, CS3 and Apico, were used to genotype positive samples. There was no isolation of the parasite by bioassay in mice. T. gondii was not detected in any of the groups of mussels by nested-PCR. DNA of T. gondii was apparently detected by nested-PCR in 2 groups of oysters (3.3%). Genotyping of these two positive samples was not successful. The results suggest that oysters of the species C. rhizophorae, the most common species from the coast of Sao Paulo, can filter and retain T. gondii oocysts from the marine environment. Ingestion of raw oysters as a potential transmission source of T. gondii to humans and marine mammals should be further investigated. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of sampling opportunities on preference for adults with severe disabilities

A variable that appears to affect preference development is the exposure to a variety of options. Providing opportunities for systematically sampling different options is one procedure that can facilitate the development of preference, which is indicated by the consistency of selections. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of providing sampling opportunities on the preference development for two adults with severe disabilities. Opportunities for sampling a variety of drink items were presented, followed by choice opportunities for selections at the site where sampling occurred and at a non-sampling site (a grocery store). Results show that the participants developed a definite response consistency in selections at both sites. Implications for sampling practices are discussed.

Ocular media transmission of coral reef fish - can coral reef fish see ultraviolet light?

Many coral reef fish are beautifully coloured and the reflectance spectra of their colour patterns may include UVa wavelengths (315-400 nm) that are largely invisible to the human eye (Losey, G. S., Cronin, T. W., Goldsmith, T. H., David, H., Marshall, N. J., & McFarland, W.N, (1999). The uv visual world of fishes: a review. Journal of Fish Biology, 54, 921-943; Marshall, N. J. & Oberwinkler, J. (1999). The colourful world of the mantis shrimp. Nature, 401, 873-874). Before the possible functional significance of UV patterns can be investigated, it is of course essential to establish whether coral reef fishes can see ultraviolet light. As a means of tackling this question, in this study the transmittance of the ocular media of 211 coral reef fish species was measured. It was found that the ocular media of 50.2% of the examined species strongly absorb light of wavelengths below 400 nm, which makes the perception of UV in these fish very unlikely. The remaining 49.8% of the species studied possess ocular media that do transmit UV light, making the perception of UV possible. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A description of Lecithocladium invasor n.sp (Digenea : Hemiuridae) and the pathology associated with two species of Hemiuridae in acanthurid fish

Lecithocladium invasor n.sp. is described from the oesophagus of Naso annulatus, N. tuberosus and N. vlamingii on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. The worms penetrate the oesophageal mucosa and induce chronic transmural nodular granulomas, which expand the full thickness of the oesophageal wall and protrude both into the oesophageal lumen and from the serosal surface. We observed two major types of lesions: large ulcerated, active granulomas, consisting of a central cavity containing a single or multiple live worms; and many smaller chronic fibrous submucosal nodules. Small, identifiable but attenuated, worms and degenerate worm fragments were identified within some chronic nodules. Co-infection of the posterior oesophagus of the same Naso species with Lecithocladium chingi was common. L. chingi is redescribed from N. annulatus, N. brevirostris, N. tuberosus and A vlamingii. Unlike L. invasor n.sp., L. chingi was not associated with significant lesions. The different pathenogenicity of the two species in acanthurid fish is discussed.

Parasites of ornamental fish imported into Australia

Five commonly imported freshwater ornamental fish: Poecilia reticulata (guppy); Xiphophorus maculatus (platy); Paracheirodon innesi (neon tetra); Paracheirodon axelrodi (cardinal tetra); and Gyrinocheilus aymonieri (sucking catfish), 361 individuals in total, were examined for parasites immediately after being released from quarantine in Australia. Ten parasites species were found: Camallanus cotti; Centrocestus formosanus; Bothriocephalus acheilognathi; Urocleidoides reticulatus; Tetrahymena corlissi; Chilodonella piscicola; Hexamita sp.; Cryptobia sp.; Chloromyxum sp.; and an unidentified larval nematode. Though shipments had come from up to five different exporting companies, parasite prevalence was uniformly high. We suggest that prior to release, fish transported internationally should be checked for high risk pathogens such as Camallanus cotti, B. acheilognathi and Centrocestus formosanus, and treated for common infections such as Hexamita sp., Cryptobia sp. T. corlissi and Chilodonella piscicola to inhibit the spread of disease and enhance the survival of the fish.

Sushi, fish and parasites

Farming yellowtail in Japan is big business and cultivation of the closely related kingfish in South Australia is rapidly emerging as a local industry. But when it comes to parasites, farming the sea is no different from farming on land. Parasites can affect productivity, and solving parasite problems is important in this rapidly growing industry.

Experimental susceptibility of some reef fish species to Benedenia lutjani (Monogenea : Capsalidae), a parasite of Lutjanus carponotatus (Pisces : Lutjanidae)

The susceptibility of species of lutjanid, lethrinid and serranid fish to infection by either larval or post-larval (juvenile and adult) specimens of the capsalid monogenean Benedenia lutjani Whittington and Kearn (1993) was examined experimentally. Four species of lutjanids became infected when exposed to larvae of B. lutjani, but three species of lethrinids and four species of serranids were not susceptible to larvae under the same conditions. Variability in the intensity of infection by larvae occurred within and between lutjanid species. Few post-larval specimens of B. lutjani transferred between individuals of the specific host Lutjanus carponotatus (Richardson 1842) in 60-l aquaria and none transferred between specimens of L. carponotatus in a 7,500-l concrete tank. These results indicate that transfer of post-larval B. lutjani between individuals of the specific host is unlikely to occur in the wild. Other lutjanid species did not become infected when exposed to specimens of L. carponotatus infected heavily by post-larval B. lutjani, but two lethrinid species were susceptible to infection under the same conditions. These data indicate that different factors may mediate host-specificity for larval and post-larval B. lutjani.