901 resultados para extinction probability
Resumo:
The vibro-acoustic response of built-up structures, consisting of stiff components with low modal density and flexible components with high modal density, is sensitive to small imperfections in the flexible components. In this paper, the uncertainty of the response is considered by modeling the low modal density master system as deterministic and the high modal density subsystems in a nonparametric stochastic way, i.e., carrying a diffuse wave field, and by subsequently computing the response probability density function. The master system's mean squared response amplitude follows a singular noncentral complex Wishart distribution conditional on the subsystem energies. For a single degree of freedom, this is equivalent to a chi-square or an exponential distribution, depending on the loading conditions. The subsystem energies follow approximately a chi-square distribution when their relative variance is smaller than unity. The results are validated by application to plate structures, and good agreement with Monte Carlo simulations is found. © 2012 Acoustical Society of America.
Resumo:
Atmospheric effects can significantly degrade the reliability of free-space optical communications. One such effect is scintillation, caused by atmospheric turbulence, refers to random fluctuations in the irradiance and phase of the received laser beam. In this paper we inv stigate the use of multiple lasers and multiple apertures to mitigate scintillation. Since the scintillation process is slow, we adopt a block fading channel model and study the outage probability under the assumptions of orthogonal pulse-position modulation and non-ideal photodetection. Assuming perfect receiver channel state information (CSI), we derive the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) exponents for the cases when the scintillation is lognormal, exponential and gammagamma distributed, which cover a wide range of atmospheric turbulence conditions. Furthermore, when CSI is also available at the transmitter, we illustrate very large gains in SNR are possible (in some cases larger than 15 dB) by adapting the transmitted power. Under a long-term power constraint, we outline fundamental design criteria via a simple expression that relates the required number of lasers and apertures for a given code rate and number of codeword blocks to completely remove system outages. Copyright © 2009 IEEE.
Resumo:
In fear extinction, an animal learns that a conditioned stimulus (CS) no longer predicts a noxious stimulus [unconditioned stimulus (UCS)] to which it had previously been associated, leading to inhibition of the conditioned response (CR). Extinction creates a new CS-noUCS memory trace, competing with the initial fear (CS-UCS) memory. Recall of extinction memory and, hence, CR inhibition at later CS encounters is facilitated by contextual stimuli present during extinction training. In line with theoretical predictions derived from animal studies, we show that, after extinction, a CS-evoked engagement of human ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) and hippocampus is context dependent, being expressed in an extinction, but not a conditioning, context. Likewise, a positive correlation between VMPFC and hippocampal activity is extinction context dependent. Thus, a VMPFC-hippocampal network provides for context-dependent recall of human extinction memory, consistent with a view that hippocampus confers context dependence on VMPFC.
Resumo:
We report an empirical study of n-gram posterior probability confidence measures for statistical machine translation (SMT). We first describe an efficient and practical algorithm for rapidly computing n-gram posterior probabilities from large translation word lattices. These probabilities are shown to be a good predictor of whether or not the n-gram is found in human reference translations, motivating their use as a confidence measure for SMT. Comprehensive n-gram precision and word coverage measurements are presented for a variety of different language pairs, domains and conditions. We analyze the effect on reference precision of using single or multiple references, and compare the precision of posteriors computed from k-best lists to those computed over the full evidence space of the lattice. We also demonstrate improved confidence by combining multiple lattices in a multi-source translation framework. © 2012 The Author(s).
Resumo:
A location- and scale-invariant predictor is constructed which exhibits good probability matching for extreme predictions outside the span of data drawn from a variety of (stationary) general distributions. It is constructed via the three-parameter {\mu, \sigma, \xi} Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The predictor is designed to provide matching probability exactly for the GPD in both the extreme heavy-tailed limit and the extreme bounded-tail limit, whilst giving a good approximation to probability matching at all intermediate values of the tail parameter \xi. The predictor is valid even for small sample sizes N, even as small as N = 3. The main purpose of this paper is to present the somewhat lengthy derivations which draw heavily on the theory of hypergeometric functions, particularly the Lauricella functions. Whilst the construction is inspired by the Bayesian approach to the prediction problem, it considers the case of vague prior information about both parameters and model, and all derivations are undertaken using sampling theory.
Resumo:
Yangtze finless porpoises were surveyed by using simultaneous visual and acoustical methods from 6 November to 13 December 2006. Two research vessels towed stereo acoustic data loggers, which were used to store the intensity and sound source direction of the high frequency sonar signals produced by finless porpoises at detection ranges up to 300 m on each side of the vessel. Simple stereo beam forming allowed the separation of distinct biosonar sound source, which enabled us to count the number of vocalizing porpoises. Acoustically, 204 porpoises were detected from one vessel and 199 from the other vessel in the same section of the Yangtze River. Visually, 163 and 162 porpoises were detected from two vessels within 300 m of the vessel track. The calculated detection probability using acoustic method was approximately twice that for visual detection for each vessel. The difference in detection probabilities between the two methods was caused by the large number of single individuals that were missed by visual observers. However, the sizes of large groups were underestimated by using the acoustic methods. Acoustic and visual observations complemented each other in the accurate detection of porpoises. The use of simple, relatively inexpensive acoustic monitoring systems should enhance population surveys of free-ranging, echolocating odontocetes. (C) 2008 Acoustical Society of America.
Resumo:
The Yangtze River dolphin or baiji ( Lipotes vexillifer), an obligate freshwater odontocete known only from the middle-lower Yangtze River system and neighbouring Qiantang River in eastern China, has long been recognized as one of the world's rarest and most threatened mammal species. The status of the baiji has not been investigated since the late 1990s, when the surviving population was estimated to be as low as 13 individuals. An intensive six-week multivessel visual and acoustic survey carried out in November-December 2006, covering the entire historical range of the baiji in the main Yangtze channel, failed to find any evidence that the species survives. We are forced to conclude that the baiji is now likely to be extinct, probably due to unsustainable by-catch in local fisheries. This represents the first global extinction of a large vertebrate for over 50 years, only the fourth disappearance of an entire mammal family since AD 1500, and the first cetacean species to be driven to extinction by human activity. Immediate and extreme measures may be necessary to prevent the extinction of other endangered cetaceans, including the sympatric Yangtze finless porpoise ( Neophocaena phocaenoides asiaeorientalis).
Resumo:
The largest damming project to date, the Three Gorges Dam has been built along the Yangtze River (China), the most species-rich river in the Palearctic region. Among 162 species of fish inhabiting the main channel of the upper Yangtze, 44 are endemic and are therefore under serious threat of global extinction from the dam. Accordingly, it is urgently necessary to develop strategies to minimize the impacts of the drastic environmental changes associated with the dam. We sought to identify potential reserves for the endemic species among the 17 tributaries in the upper Yangtze, based on presence/absence data for the 44 endemic species. Potential reserves for the endemic species were identified by characterizing the distribution patterns of endemic species with an adaptive learning algorithm called a "self-organizing map" (SOM). Using this method, we also predicted occurrence probabilities of species in potential reserves based on the distribution patterns of communities. Considering both SOM model results and actual knowledge of the biology of the considered species, our results suggested that 24 species may survive in the tributaries, 14 have an uncertain future, and 6 have a high probability of becoming extinct after dam filling.
Resumo:
Submitted by 阎军 (yanj@red.semi.ac.cn) on 2010-06-04T08:08:51Z No. of bitstreams: 1 High-Q and High-extinction-ratio Microdisk Add-drop Filter with Grating Couplers in Silicon-on-Insulator.pdf: 662474 bytes, checksum: dbdd3fba410c875bd74a6d4823930a44 (MD5)
Resumo:
We fabricate an electro-absorption modulator for optical network system using a new strategy, the improved modulation properties of the strained InGaAs/InAlAs MQW show it's polarization independent, high extinction ratio (> 40dB) and low capacitance (C <0.6pF) which can achieve an ultra-high frequency(> 10GHz). The device is be used in 10Gbps optical time division multiplex (OTDM) system as a signal generator.