Bayesian modelling of surveillance and proof of freedom : the mathematical, logical & psychological challenges

Keeping exotic plant pests out of our country relies on good border control or quarantine. However with increasing globalization and mobilization some things slip through. Then the back up systems become important. This can include an expensive form of surveillance that purposively targets particular pests. A much wider net is provided by general surveillance, which is assimilated into everyday activities, like farmers checking the health of their crops. In fact farmers and even home gardeners have provided a front line warning system for some pests (eg European wasp) that could otherwise have wreaked havoc. Mathematics is used to model how surveillance works in various situations. Within this virtual world we can play with various surveillance and management strategies to "see" how they would work, or how to make them work better. One of our greatest challenges is estimating some of the input parameters : because the pest hasn't been here before, it's hard to predict how well it might behave: establishing, spreading, and what types of symptoms it might express. So we rely on experts to help us with this. This talk will look at the mathematical, psychological and logical challenges of helping experts to quantify what they think. We show how the subjective Bayesian approach is useful for capturing expert uncertainty, ultimately providing a more complete picture of what they think... And what they don't!

On facilitating regional integration and economic development with collaborative technologies in the South Pacific

The current global economic instability and the vulnerability of small island nations are providing the impetus for greater integration between the countries of the South Pacific region. This exercise is critical for their survival in today’s turbulent economic environment. Past efforts of regional integration in the South Pacific have not been very successful. Reasons attributed to this outcome include issues related to damage of sovereignty, and lack of a shared integration infrastructure. Today, the IT resources with collaborative capacities provide the opportunity to develop a shared IT infrastructure to facilitate integration in the South Pacific. In an attempt to develop a model of regional integration with an IT-backed infrastructure, we identify and report on the antecedents of the current stage of regional integration, and the stakeholders’ perceived benefits of an IT resources backed regional integration in the South Pacific. Employing a case study based approach, the study finds that while most stakeholders were positive about the potential of IT-backed regional integration, significant challenges exist that hinder the realisation of this model. The study finds that facilitating IT-backed regional integration requires enabling IT infrastructure, equitable IT development in the region, greater awareness on the potential of the modern IT resources, market liberalisation of the information and telecommunications sector and greater political support for IT initiatives.

Design LED innovation to rejuvenate local food systems and healthy communities : an emerging research agenda

Food Sovereignty (food freedom) is about empowering people to develop their own local food system. Food Sovereignty challenges designers to enable people to innovate the local food system, rather than having a food system which is dictated by corporate interests and failed business ethics. Communities are realising the potential for design to assist in the innovation process, and add strategic value to potentially localise the food system. Design Led Innovation (DLI) offers a strategic framework to address large-scale cultural, systemic and economic changes. The DLI approach empowers communities to take organised action to achieve a healthy, prosperous and happy way of life. DLI can assist with business models in the business world and it is evident this approach can assist with creating social change too. This paper presents on an emerging research agenda aimed to assist designer’s focus from individuals and systems to communities and urban problems. This paper also presents the research proposition that DLI and service design coupled with social entrepreneurial ventures such as local food projects and creative community inventions, have the potential to enable social innovation for healthy and happy communities.

Resources for improving journalists' understanding of the economic and financial parameters of Australia's agricultural and commodity producers

The research addresses how an understanding of the fundamentals of economics will better inform general journalists who report on issues or events affecting rural and regional Australia. The research draws on practice-based experience of the author, formal economics studies, interviews with news editors from Australian television news organisations, and interviews from leading economists. A guidebook has also been written to help journalists apply economic theories to their reporting. The guidebook enables reporters to think strategically and consider the 'big picture' when they inform society about policies, commodity trade, the environment, or any issues involving rural and regional Australia.

Prevalence, trends and associated socio-economic factors of obesity in South Asia

Aim Worldwide obesity levels have increased unprecedentedly over the past couple of decades. Although the prevalence, trends and associated socio-economic factors of the condition have been extensively reported in Western populations, less is known regarding South Asian populations. Methods A review of articles using Medline with combinations of the MeSH terms: 'Obesity', 'Overweight' and 'Abdominal Obesity' limiting to epidemiology and South Asian countries. Results Despite methodological heterogeneity and variation according to country, area of residence and gender , the most recent nationally representative and large regional data demonstrates that without any doubt there is a epidemic of obesity, overweight and abdominal obesity in South Asian countries. Prevalence estimates of overweight and obesity (based on Asian cut-offs: overweight ≥ 23 kg/m(2), obesity ≥ 25 kg/m(2)) ranged from 3.5% in rural Bangladesh to over 65% in the Maldives. Abdominal obesity was more prevalent than general obesity in both sexes in this ethnic group. Countries with the lowest prevalence had the highest upward trend of obesity. Socio-economic factors associated with greater obesity in the region included female gender, middle age, urban residence, higher educational and economic status. Conclusion South Asia is significantly affected by the obesity epidemic. Collaborative public health interventions to reverse these trends need to be mindful of many socio-economic constraints in order to provide long-term solutions.

The relationship of entrepreneurial orientation, Vincentian values and economic and social performance in social enterprise

This study focuses on the managerial question “should social enterprises become more entrepreneurial?” It adapts the Covin and Slevin (1989) entrepreneurial orientation scale to measure the adoption of entrepreneurship by a social enterprise, and develops a scale that combines a Vincentian based focus to serve the poor with a propensity to take a more entrepreneurial approach toward business as a measure of a social value orientation (SVO).

Particle Swarm algorithm with Fuzzy decision making for a multi-objective economic and environmental optimization of design of a thermal system

Multi-Objective optimization for designing of a benchmark cogeneration system known as CGAM cogeneration system has been performed. In optimization approach, the thermoeconomic and Environmental aspects have been considered, simultaneously. The environmental objective function has been defined and expressed in cost terms. One of the most suitable optimization techniques developed using a particular class of search algorithms known as; Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization (MOPSO) algorithm has been used here. This approach has been applied to find the set of Pareto optimal solutions with respect to the aforementioned objective functions. An example of fuzzy decision-making with the aid of Bellman-Zadeh approach has been presented and a final optimal solution has been introduced.

Economic burden of malignant neoplasms in Shandong province [山东省恶性肿瘤经济负担分析]

Objective: To evaluate the economic burden of malignant neoplasms in Shandong province in order to provide scientific evidence for policy-making. Methods: The main sources for this study were the data from the third sampling survey of death cause in 2006 and cancer prevalence survey in 2007 in Shandong province. The direct medical cost was calculated based on the survey data. The indirect cost due to mortality and morbidity were estimated with human capital approach based on the data of disability-adjusted life years derived from the two surveys and gross domestic product (GDP) data. The total economic burden was the sum of direct medical cost and indirect cost. The uncertainty analysis was conducted according to the methodology in global burden of disease study. Results: The total cost of cancer in Shandong province in 2006 estimated was 18 057 million Yuan RMB (95% confidence interval:16 817 － 19 393 million), which accounted for 0. 83% of the total GDP. The direct medical cost，indirect mortality cost and indirect morbidity cost accounted for 17.28%, 78.53%, and 4.20% of total economic burden of malignant neoplasms, respectively. Liver，lung and stomach cancer were the top three tumors with heavier economic burden, with accounted for more than one half (57. 83%) of the total economic burden of all cancers. The uncertainty of total burden estimated was around ± 7%, which mainly derived from the uncertainty of indirect economic burden. Conclusion: The influence of cancers on social economy is dominated by the loss of productivity, especially by the productivity loss due to premature death. Liver, lung and stomach cancer are the major cancers for disease control and prevention in Shandong province. Abstract in Chinese 目的 评价山东省恶性肿瘤经济负担,为卫生决策提供科学依据. 方法 以2006年山东省第3次死因回顾抽样凋查资料和2007年山东省恶性肿瘤现患状况抽样调查资料为基础,测算全省直接医疗成本;采用人力资本法测算死亡间接负担和伤残间接负担;参考全球疾病负担研究的方法对测算结果的不确定性进行分析. 结果 2006年山东省因恶性肿瘤导致的总经济负担为180.57亿元(95%CI=16 817～19 393),占全省GDP总量的0.83%,其中直接医疗成本占总负担的17.28%,死亡造成的间接经济负担占78.53%,伤残所致间接经济负担占4.20%;肝癌、肺癌和胃癌为山东省经济负担最重的3种恶性肿瘤,总经济负担合计占全部恶性肿瘤的57.83%;总经济负担估计结果的不确定性范围在±7%左右,主要取决于间接经济负担的不确定性. 结论 恶性肿瘤对社会经济的影响主要通过生产力的损失产生作用,并以死亡所致生产力损失为主;肝癌、肺癌和胃癌应是山东省恶性肿瘤预防控制的重点.

Accelerating the Mathematics Learning of Low Socio-Economic Status Junior Secondary Students : an early report

The Accelerating the Mathematics Learning of Low Socio-Economic Status Junior Secondary Students project aims to address the issues faced by very underperforming mathematics students as they enter high school. Its aim is to accelerate learning of mathematics through a vertical curriculum to enable students to access Year 10 mathematics subjects, thus improving life chances. This paper reports upon the theory underpinning this project and illustrates it with examples of the curriculum that has been designed to achieve acceleration.

A meshfree-based local Galerkin method with condensation of degree of freedom

Condensation technique of degree of freedom is firstly proposed to improve the computational efficiency of meshfree method with Galerkin weak form. In present method, scattered nodes without connectivity are divided into several subsets by cells with arbitrary shape. The local discrete equations are established over each cell by using moving kriging interpolation, in which the nodes that located in the cell are used for approximation. Then, the condensation technique can be introduced into the local discrete equations by transferring equations of inner nodes to equations of boundary nodes based on cell. In the scheme of present method, the calculation of each cell is carried out by meshfree method with Galerkin weak form, and local search is implemented in interpolation. Numerical examples show that the present method has high computational efficiency and convergence, and good accuracy is also obtained.

Exenatide extended-release; clinical trials, patient preference, and economic considerations

Type 2 diabetes remains an escalating world-wide problem, despite a range of treatments. The revelation that insulin secretion is under the control of a gut hormone, glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) led to a new paradigm in the management of type 2 diabetes, medicines that directly stimulate, or that prolong the actions of the endogenous GLP-1, at its receptors. Exenatide is an agonist at the GLP-1 receptors, and was initially developed as a subcutaneous twice daily medication, ExBID. The clinical trials with ExBID established a role for exenatide in the treatment of type 2 diabetes. Subsequently, once weekly exenatide (ExQW) was shown to have advantages over ExBID, and there is now more emphasis on the development of ExQW. ExQW alone reduces glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and body weight, and is well tolerated. ExQW has been compared to sitagliptin, pioglitazone and metformin, and shown to have a greater ability to reduce HbA1c than these other medicines. The only preparation of insulin, which ExQW has been compared to, is insulin glargine, and the ExQW has some favourable properties in this comparison, notably causing weight loss, compared to the gain with insulin glargine. ExQW has been compared to another GLP-1 receptor agonist, liraglutide, and ExQW is non-inferior to liraglutide in reducing HbA1c. The small amount of evidence available, shows that subjects with type 2 diabetes, prefer ExQW to ExBID, and that adherence was high to these in the clinical trial setting. Healthcare and economic modelling suggests that ExQW will reduce diabetic complications and be cost-effective, compared to other medications, with long term use. Little is known about whether subjects with type 2 diabetes prefer ExQW to other medicines, and whether adherence is good to ExQW in practice, and these important topics require further study.

Measuring global economic interdependence : a hierarchical network approach

This paper investigates the business cycle co-movement across countries and regions since 1950 as a measure for quantifying the economic interdependence in the ongoing globalisation process. Our methodological approach is based on analysis of a correlation matrix and the networks it contains. Such an approach summarises the interaction and interdependence of all elements, and it represents a more accurate measure of the global interdependence involved in an economic system. Our results show (1) the dynamics of interdependence has been driven more by synchronisation in regional growth patterns than by the synchronisation of the world economy, and (2) world crisis periods dramatically increase the global co-movement in the world economy.

A Century of American Economic Review : Insights on Critical Factors in Journal Publishing

By using information collected from numerous American Economic Review publications from the last 100 years, Torgler and Piatti examine the top publishing institutions to determine their most renowned AER papers based on citation success. Areas of interest include how often an individual can publish in the AER, how equally successful citations are distributed and who the top AER publishing authors are. The book explores what the level of cooperation is among authors and what drives systems such as the alphabetical name ordering. Torgler and Piatti critically examine the individual characteristics of AER authors, editors, editorial board members and referees and even tackle more intricate details such as the frequency of female publications in the AER. The authors observe and analyse the relationship between academic age and publication performance to see if there is any pattern on these factors and citation success. The book then goes on to analyse data concerning awards, and whether awards can increase the probability of publishing in the AER at a later stage

Creating a Sustainability Scorecard as a predictive tool for measuring the complex social, economic and environmental impacts of industries, a case study : assessing the viability and sustainability of the dairy industry

Sustainability is a key driver for decisions in the management and future development of industries. The World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED, 1987) outlined imperatives which need to be met for environmental, economic and social sustainability. Development of strategies for measuring and improving sustainability in and across these domains, however, has been hindered by intense debate between advocates for one approach fearing that efforts by those who advocate for another could have unintended adverse impacts. Studies attempting to compare the sustainability performance of countries and industries have also found ratings of performance quite variable depending on the sustainability indices used. Quantifying and comparing the sustainability of industries across the triple bottom line of economy, environment and social impact continues to be problematic. Using the Australian dairy industry as a case study, a Sustainability Scorecard, developed as a Bayesian network model, is proposed as an adaptable tool to enable informed assessment, dialogue and negotiation of strategies at a global level as well as being suitable for developing local solutions.