Whose ETSIP? National and local ownership of Namibia's education and training sector improvement programme

Tämä työ tarkastelee kansallista ja paikallista omistajuutta Namibian opetussektorin kehittämisohjelmassa. Opetussektorin kehittämisohjelma ETSIP on 15-vuotinen sektoriohjelma vuosille 2005-2015 ja sen tavoitteena on edesauttaa Namibian kehittymistä tietoyhteiskunnaksi. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on selvittää miten kansallinen ja paikallinen omistajuus on toteutunut ETSIP prosessin aikana. Erityisesti pyritään selvittämään paikallistason opetussektorin virkamiesten näkemyksiä ETSIP prosessista, heidän roolistaan siinä ja siitä millaisia vaikuttamisen ja hallinnan mahdollisuuksia heillä on ollut prosessin aikana. Tutkimuksen lähtökohta on laadullinen ja lähestymistapa konstruktionistinen: tutkimus tarkastelee todellisuutta ihmisten kokemusten, näkemysten ja toiminnan kautta. Tutkimusaineisto koostuu haastatteluista, epävirallisista keskusteluista, lehtiartikkeleista ja ETSIP dokumenteista. Tutkimus osoittaa että kansallinen omistajuus on epämääräinen käsite sillä kansallisia toimijoita ja näkemyksiä on useita. Tutkimus vahvistaa Castel-Brancon huomion siitä, että omistajuutta on tarkasteltava kontekstissaan: muuttuvana ja kilpailtuna. ETSIPin rinnalle ollaan valmistelemassa uutta strategista ohjelmaa opetusministeriölle mikä saattaa muuttaa omistajuutta ETSIPiin. ETSIP dokumenttien omistajuusretoriikka myötäilee kansainvälisiä sitoumuksia avun vaikuttavuuden parantamiseksi mutta niistä puuttuu syvällisempi analyysi siitä, miten kansallinen ja paikallinen omistajuus toteutuisi käytännössä. Avunantajien näkemys omistajuudesta on suppea: omistajuus nähdään lähinnä sitoutumisena ennalta määrättyyn politiikkaohjelmaan. Haastatteluaineistosta nousee esiin Whitfieldin ja Frazerin jaottelu suppeista ja laajoista omistajuuskäsityksistä. Sitoutumista ETSIP ohjelmaan pidetään tärkeänä mutta riittämättömänä määritteenä omistajuudelle. Paikallisella tasolla sitoutuminen ETSIP ohjelman periaatteisiin ja tavoitteisiin on toteutunut melko hyvin mutta jos omistajuutta tarkastellaan laajemmin vaikutusvallan ja hallinnan käsitteiden kautta voidaan todeta että omistajuus on ollut heikkoa. Paikallisella tasolla ei ole ollut juurikaan vaikutusvaltaa ETSIP ohjelman sisältöön eikä mahdollisuutta hallita ohjelman toteutusta ja päättää siitä mitä hankkeita ohjelman kautta rahoitetaan. Tujanin demokraattisen omistajuuden käsite kuvaa tarvetta muuttaa ja laajentaa omistajuusajattelua huomioiden paikallisen tason paremmin. Tämä tutkimus viittaa siihen että omistajuuden toteutuminen paikallisella tasolla edellyttäisi institutionaalisen kulttuurin muutosta ja institutionaalisen legitimiteetin vahvistamista. Omistajuuden mahdollistamiseksi paikallisella tasolla tarvittaisiin poliittista johtajuutta, luottamusta, vastuullisuuden kulttuurin kehittämistä, tehokkaampaa tiedonjakoa, laajaa osallistumista, vuoropuhelua ja yhteistyötä. Ennen kaikkea tarvittaisiin paikallisen tason vaikutusvaltaa päätöksenteossa ja kontrollia resurssien käytöstä. Tälle muutokselle on selvä tarve ja tilaus.

The Enlightenment Idea of History as a Legitimation Tool of Kemalism in Turkey

The study analyzes the effort to build political legitimacy in the Republic of Turkey by ex-ploring a group of influential texts produced by Kemalist writers. The study explores how the Kemalist regime reproduced certain long-lasting enlightenment meta-narrative in its effort to build political legitimacy. Central in this process was a hegemonic representation of history, namely the interpretation of the Anatolian Resistance Struggle of 1919 1922 as a Turkish Revolution executing the enlightenment in the Turkish nation-state. The method employed in the study is contextualizing narratological analysis. The Kemalist texts are analyzed with a repertoire of concepts originally developed in the theory of narra-tive. By bringing these concepts together with epistemological foundations of historical sciences, the study creates a theoretical frame inside of which it is possible to highlight how initially very controversial historical representations in the end manage to construct long-lasting, emotionally and intellectually convincing bases of national identity for the secular middle classes in Turkey. The two most important explanatory concepts in this sense are di-egesis and implied reader. The diegesis refers to the ability of narrative representation to create an inherently credible story-world that works as the basis of national community. The implied reader refers to the process where a certain hegemonic narrative creates a formula of identification and a position through which any individual real-world reader of a story can step inside the narrative story-world and identify oneself as one of us of the national narra-tive. The study demonstrates that the Kemalist enlightenment meta-narrative created a group of narrative accruals which enabled generations of secular middle classes to internalize Kemalist ideology. In this sense, the narrative in question has not only worked as a tool utilized by the so-called Kemalist state-elite to justify its leadership, but has been internalized by various groups in Turkey, working as their genuine world-view. It is shown in the study that secular-ism must be seen as the core ingredient of these groups national identity. The study proposes that the enlightenment narrative reproduced in the Kemalist ideology had its origin in a simi-lar totalizing cultural narrative created in and for Europe. Currently this enlightenment project is challenged in Turkey by those who are in an attempt to give religion a greater role in Turkish society. The study argues that the enduring practice of legitimizing political power through the enlightenment meta-narrative has not only become a major factor contributing to social polarization in Turkey, but has also, in contradiction to the very real potentials for crit-ical approaches inherent in the Enlightenment tradition, crucially restricted the development of critical and rational modes of thinking in the Republic of Turkey.

The Role of Electronic Word of Mouth in Shaping Consumer Attitudes

The purpose of this research was to investigate the role of electronic word of mouth (eWOM) in shaping consumer attitudes towards various products and services with concentration on the consumer attitude change. eWOM has long been proven to play an important role in influencing consumer attitudes and has been researched from a variety of perspectives. This study attempts to look deeper into the process of consumer attitude change by applying as the central theory of the study the Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion by Petty and Cacioppo. In the processes of examining the background academic and empirical research the Internet and Web 2.0 are closely depicted in order to understand how throughout the past centuries technology allowed the rise of various mediums where consumers can not only share their opinions online about products and services but also communicate with other consumers. Manuel Castel’s Internet Galaxy, Gildin’s, Carl and Noland’s, Hennig-Thurau, Gwinner, Walsh and Gremler’s researches on eWOM are the central works that helped to shape both the theoretical and empirical parts of this study. The mixed method approach was chosen as a research method for this study. An online survey was conducted via the Surveymonkey.com platform and eight qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted. The results of the study show that central route queues as text quality and text argumentativeness are more prominent among the research subjects and the peripheral route queues: source credibility and source expertise did not show considerable significance. Also more experience and participation consumers have with user-rating websites and applications more inclined they are to elaborate on the central route cues and are more likely to search for opinions that they consider rational and credible. Also these respondents are less inclined to search for ratings that confirm their existing beliefs about products or services. Less experience/participation they have about eWOM more likely they are to search for reviews confirmatory to their own.

Serodiagnosis of Tuberculosis in Asian Elephants (Elephas maximus) in Southern India: A Latent Class Analysis

Background: Mycobacterium tuberculosis, a causative agent of chronic tuberculosis disease, is widespread among some animal species too. There is paucity of information on the distribution, prevalence and true disease status of tuberculosis in Asian elephants (Elephas maximus). The aim of this study was to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of serological tests to diagnose M. tuberculosis infection in captive elephants in southern India while simultaneously estimating sero-prevalence. Methodology/Principal Findings: Health assessment of 600 elephants was carried out and their sera screened with a commercially available rapid serum test. Trunk wash culture of select rapid serum test positive animals yielded no animal positive for M. tuberculosis isolation. Under Indian field conditions where the true disease status is unknown, we used a latent class model to estimate the diagnostic characteristics of an existing (rapid serum test) and new (four in-house ELISA) tests. One hundred and seventy nine sera were randomly selected for screening in the five tests. Diagnostic sensitivities of the four ELISAs were 91.3-97.6% (95% Credible Interval (CI): 74.8-99.9) and diagnostic specificity were 89.6-98.5% (95% CI: 79.4-99.9) based on the model we assumed. We estimate that 53.6% (95% CI: 44.6-62.8) of the samples tested were free from infection with M. tuberculosis and 15.9% (97.5% CI: 9.8 - to 24.0) tested positive on all five tests. Conclusions/Significance: Our results provide evidence for high prevalence of asymptomatic M. tuberculosis infection in Asian elephants in a captive Indian setting. Further validation of these tests would be important in formulating area-specific effective surveillance and control measures.

Context aware M-commerce services: C-IOB model approach

Context-aware computing is useful in providing individualized services focusing mainly on acquiring surrounding context of user. By comparison, only very little research has been completed in integrating context from different environments, despite of its usefulness in diverse applications such as healthcare, M-commerce and tourist guide applications. In particular, one of the most important criteria in providing personalized service in a highly dynamic environment and constantly changing user environment, is to develop a context model which aggregates context from different domains to infer context of an entity at the more abstract level. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to propose a context model based on cognitive aspects to relate contextual information that better captures the observation of certain worlds of interest for a more sophisticated context-aware service. We developed a C-IOB (Context-Information, Observation, Belief) conceptual model to analyze the context data from physical, system, application, and social domains to infer context at the more abstract level. The beliefs developed about an entity (person, place, things) are primitive in most theories of decision making so that applications can use these beliefs in addition to history of transaction for providing intelligent service. We enhance our proposed context model by further classifying context information into three categories: a well-defined, a qualitative and credible context information to make the system more realistic towards real world implementation. The proposed model is deployed to assist a M-commerce application. The simulation results show that the service selection and service delivery of the system are high compared to traditional system.

Biodiversity and ecological assessments of Indian sacred groves

Sacred groves are patches of forests preserved for their spiritual and religious significance. The practice gained relevance with the spread of agriculture that caused large-scale deforestation affecting biodiversity and watersheds. Sacred groves may lose their prominence nowadays, but are still relevant in Indian rural landscapes inhabited by traditional communities. The recent rise of interest in this tradition encouraged scientific study that despite its pan-Indian distribution, focused on India's northeast, Western Ghats and east coast either for their global/regional importance or unique ecosystems. Most studies focused on flora, mainly angiosperms, and the faunal studies concentrated on vertebrates while lower life forms were grossly neglected. Studies on ecosystem functioning are few although observations are available. Most studies attributed watershed protection values to sacred groves but hardly highlighted hydrological process or water yield in comparison with other land use types. The grove studies require diversification from a stereotyped path and must move towards creating credible scientific foundations for conservation. Documentation should continue in unexplored areas but more work is needed on basic ecological functions and ecosystem dynamics to strengthen planning for scientifically sound sacred grove management.

Forest area estimation and reporting: implications for conservation, management and REDD

Periodic estimation, monitoring and reporting on area under forest and plantation types and afforestation rates are critical to forest and biodiversity conservation, sustainable forest management and for meeting international commitments. This article is aimed at assessing the adequacy of the current monitoring and reporting approach adopted in India in the context of new challenges of conservation and reporting to international conventions and agencies. The analysis shows that the current mode of monitoring and reporting of forest area is inadequate to meet the national and international requirements. India could be potentially over-reporting the area under forests by including many non-forest tree categories such as commercial plantations of coconut, cashew, coffee and rubber, and fruit orchards. India may also be under-reporting deforestation by reporting only gross forest area at the state and national levels. There is a need for monitoring and reporting of forest cover, deforestation and afforestation rates according to categories such as (i) natural/primary forest, (ii) secondary/degraded forests, (iii) forest plantations, (iv) commercial plantations, (v) fruit orchards and (vi) scattered trees.

Environmental Mechanics Research in China

By recalling mankind's path during past 50 years in the present article, we mainly highlight the significance of environmental issues today. In particular, two major factors leading to environment deterioration in China such as water resources and coal burning are stressed on. Present-day environmental issues are obviously interdisciplinary, of multiple scales and multi-composition in nature. Therefore, a process-based approach for environment research is absolutely necessarily. A series of sub-processes, either physical, chemical or biological, are subsequently analyzed in order to established reasonable parameterization scheme and credible comprehensive model. And we are now in a position to answer questions still open to us, improve existing somewhat empirical engineering approaches and enhance quantitative accuracy in prediction. To illustrate this process-based research approach, three typical examples associated with the Yangtze River Estuary, Loess Plateau and Tenggeli Desert environments have been dealt with respectively. A theoretical model of vertical flow field accounting for runoff and tide interaction has been established to delineate salinity and sediment motion which are responsible for the formation of mouth bar at the outlet and the ecological evolution there. A kinematic wave theory combined with the revised Green-Ampt infiltration formula is applied to the prediction of runoff generation and erosion in three types of erosion region on the Loess Plateau. Three approaches describing water motion in SPAC system in arid areas at different levels have been improved by introducing vegetation sub-models. However, we have found that the formation of a dry sandy layer and biological crust skin are additional primary causes leading to deterioration of water supply and succession of ecological system.

Ajuste estatal sin equilibrio político : la gestión de López Murphy como ministro de economía de la Alianza en marzo de 2001

Resumen: Este trabajo intenta abordar desde la perspectiva de la historia política la corta gestión, de apenas diecisiete días, de López Murphy como Ministro de Economía de la Alianza en marzo de 2001 como un caso de estudio del “triángulo de gobierno” de Matus. Para esto, primero señalaremos la conformación inicial de los equilibrios políticos de la Alianza, explicando por qué se designó como primer Ministro de Economía a Machinea, enfatizando los delicados compromisos sobre los cuales debió actuar, así como su progresivo agotamiento. Luego, analizaremos cómo su reemplazo por López Murphy generó un profundo cambio de alianzas políticas, generando diversos tipos de enfrentamientos y reagrupamientos, que debilitaban la opción que representaba López Murphy. Igualmente, y a pesar de las resistencias iníciales, veremos que López Murphy decidió llevar a cabo un descomunal ajuste estatal, sin miramientos por las condiciones políticas para aplicarlo. Finalmente, nos dedicaremos a plantear el fin de la gestión de López Murphy y el cambio de condiciones que generó su reemplazo por Cavallo, cambio sobre el cual la Alianza hizo depender su suerte política.

Argentina. Crisis de pagos y sinergia entre programas del FMI y Club de París. 1956-2009

Desde 1956, en ocho ocasiones la Argentina refinanció deudas oficiales en el ámbito del Club de París. Estas refinanciaciones implicaron implementar programas de ajuste, acompañados en seis oportunidades por acuerdos contingentes con el FMI. Pero la apreciación subsiguiente de la moneda doméstica y los compromisos de facilitar importaciones pactados en tales acuerdos, desencadenan un ciclo de auge y deterioro de la cuenta corriente del balance de pagos que finaliza con una nueva crisis y una deuda externa incrementada, agravando la restricción de divisas originante de tal situación, en un contexto de salida masiva de capitales, inflación y recesión.

Testing inflationary cosmology with the BICEP1 and BICEP2 experiments

Recent observations of the temperature anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) favor an inflationary paradigm in which the scale factor of the universe inflated by many orders of magnitude at some very early time. Such a scenario would produce the observed large-scale isotropy and homogeneity of the universe, as well as the scale-invariant perturbations responsible for the observed (10 parts per million) anisotropies in the CMB. An inflationary epoch is also theorized to produce a background of gravitational waves (or tensor perturbations), the effects of which can be observed in the polarization of the CMB. The E-mode (or parity even) polarization of the CMB, which is produced by scalar perturbations, has now been measured with high significance. Con- trastingly, today the B-mode (or parity odd) polarization, which is sourced by tensor perturbations, has yet to be observed. A detection of the B-mode polarization of the CMB would provide strong evidence for an inflationary epoch early in the universe’s history.

In this work, we explore experimental techniques and analysis methods used to probe the B- mode polarization of the CMB. These experimental techniques have been used to build the Bicep2 telescope, which was deployed to the South Pole in 2009. After three years of observations, Bicep2 has acquired one of the deepest observations of the degree-scale polarization of the CMB to date. Similarly, this work describes analysis methods developed for the Bicep1 three-year data analysis, which includes the full data set acquired by Bicep1. This analysis has produced the tightest constraint on the B-mode polarization of the CMB to date, corresponding to a tensor-to-scalar ratio estimate of r = 0.04±0.32, or a Bayesian 95% credible interval of r < 0.70. These analysis methods, in addition to producing this new constraint, are directly applicable to future analyses of Bicep2 data. Taken together, the experimental techniques and analysis methods described herein promise to open a new observational window into the inflationary epoch and the initial conditions of our universe.

La mediación como recurso pedagógico por y para la convivencia pacífica en los centros educativos

Resumen: Los centros educativos son un lugar de convivencia y, como en otros ámbitos de la sociedad, se producen conflictos. Si no se gestionan de manera positiva, éstos pueden afectar a dicha convivencia y para ello, se deben fomentar habilidades sociales específicas como lo es la mediación. Como estructura sistémica, la mediación es una herramienta de trabajo por y para la convivencia pacífica en los centros, en la que los alumnos adquieren un papel protagonista en su propia educación. Así, a través del diálogo los alumnos afrontan los problemas que surgen diariamente, adquiriendo compromisos y responsabilidades, tanto consigo mismo como con los demás; lo que mejora sensiblemente el clima escolar.

Implications of governance structures on urban climate action: evidence from Italy and Spain

47 p.

De "caldeirão do diabo" a "paraíso ecológico": a conversão da Ilha Grande

A partir de 1994, com a cessão das terras e benfeitorias do extinto Instituto Penal Cândido Mendes na Vila Dois Rios, a Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ) passou a atuar na Ilha Grande (Angra dos Reis/RJ), de forma mais expressiva, fundando o Centro de Estudos Ambientais e Desenvolvimento Sustentável (CEADS). Em função da relevância socioambiental da Costa Verde, em especial, da Ilha Grande, e dos compromissos assumidos pela universidade com a implantação do CEADS, o presente estudo buscou avaliar como a gestão desse campus pode contribuir para o estabelecimento de políticas públicas que promovam a sustentabilidade socio-ambiental da Ilha Grande. Desta forma, a partir de um diagnóstico socioambiental da Costa Verde, com ênfase na Ilha Grande, foi realizada uma reflexão crítica sobre os processos de territorialização em Dois Rios e uma apreciação dos problemas socioambientais prioritários por meio da Análise da Cadeia Causal. Identificou-se como as principais causas raízes dos problemas prioritários da Ilha Grande, a fragilidade do sistema de governança (dificuldade de implementar acordos; dificuldade de mobilização social; falta de ordenamento dos diferentes níveis de governo; inadequada integração de considerações ambientais nas políticas públicas; impunidade; corrupção, precariedade da fiscalização) e causas políticas (conflitos entre diferentes instância públicas). Evidenciou-se, também, um distanciamento entre as instituições gestoras locais e os centros de produção de conhecimento que atuam na região, entre os quais a UERJ, através do CEADS. A partir do envolvimento institucional mais forte e de uma política ambiental a ser assumida como estratégia de gestão da UERJ como um todo, propõe-se a implantação de um ecocampus na unidade de Dois Rios, que oportunize à universidade contribuir, de forma pró-ativa, para a sustentabilidade da Costa Verde, sem exclusão da população local, assim como, realizar uma ampla reflexão e reformulação de suas práticas. Palavras-chave: Ilha Grande. Turismo. Análise da Cadeia Causal. Território. Ecocampus. Sustentabilidade

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Moment Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

There is a sparse number of credible source models available from large-magnitude past earthquakes. A stochastic source model generation algorithm thus becomes necessary for robust risk quantification using scenario earthquakes. We present an algorithm that combines the physics of fault ruptures as imaged in laboratory earthquakes with stress estimates on the fault constrained by field observations to generate stochastic source models for large-magnitude (Mw 6.0-8.0) strike-slip earthquakes. The algorithm is validated through a statistical comparison of synthetic ground motion histories from a stochastically generated source model for a magnitude 7.90 earthquake and a kinematic finite-source inversion of an equivalent magnitude past earthquake on a geometrically similar fault. The synthetic dataset comprises of three-component ground motion waveforms, computed at 636 sites in southern California, for ten hypothetical rupture scenarios (five hypocenters, each with two rupture directions) on the southern San Andreas fault. A similar validation exercise is conducted for a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, the lower magnitude limit for the algorithm. Additionally, ground motions from the Mw7.9 earthquake simulations are compared against predictions by the Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA relation as well as the ShakeOut scenario earthquake. The algorithm is then applied to generate fifty source models for a hypothetical magnitude 7.9 earthquake originating at Parkfield, with rupture propagating from north to south (towards Wrightwood), similar to the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Using the spectral element method, three-component ground motion waveforms are computed in the Los Angeles basin for each scenario earthquake and the sensitivity of ground shaking intensity to seismic source parameters (such as the percentage of asperity area relative to the fault area, rupture speed, and risetime) is studied.

Under plausible San Andreas fault earthquakes in the next 30 years, modeled using the stochastic source algorithm, the performance of two 18-story steel moment frame buildings (UBC 1982 and 1997 designs) in southern California is quantified. The approach integrates rupture-to-rafters simulations into the PEER performance based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Using stochastic sources and computational seismic wave propagation, three-component ground motion histories at 636 sites in southern California are generated for sixty scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. The ruptures, with moment magnitudes in the range of 6.0-8.0, are assumed to occur at five locations on the southern section of the fault. Two unilateral rupture propagation directions are considered. The 30-year probabilities of all plausible ruptures in this magnitude range and in that section of the fault, as forecast by the United States Geological Survey, are distributed among these 60 earthquakes based on proximity and moment release. The response of the two 18-story buildings hypothetically located at each of the 636 sites under 3-component shaking from all 60 events is computed using 3-D nonlinear time-history analysis. Using these results, the probability of the structural response exceeding Immediate Occupancy (IO), Life-Safety (LS), and Collapse Prevention (CP) performance levels under San Andreas fault earthquakes over the next thirty years is evaluated.

Furthermore, the conditional and marginal probability distributions of peak ground velocity (PGV) and displacement (PGD) in Los Angeles and surrounding basins due to earthquakes occurring primarily on the mid-section of southern San Andreas fault are determined using Bayesian model class identification. Simulated ground motions at sites within 55-75km from the source from a suite of 60 earthquakes (Mw 6.0 − 8.0) primarily rupturing mid-section of San Andreas fault are considered for PGV and PGD data.