Assessing soil erosion due to land use change at the Alqueva reservoir surrounding area

Tese de doutoramento, Ciências do Mar, da Terra e do Ambiente, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015

The Impact of Thought Speed and Variability on Psychological State and Threat Perception: Further Exploration of the Theory of Mental Motion

Thought speed and variability are purportedly common features of specific psychological states, such as mania and anxiety. The present study explored the independent and combinational influence of these variables upon condition-specific symptoms and affective state, as proposed by Pronin and Jacobs’ (Perspect Psychol Sci, 3:461–485, 2008) theory of mental motion. A general population sample was recruited online (N = 263). Participants completed a thought speed and variability manipulation task, inducing a combination of fast/slow and varied/repetitive thought. Change in mania and anxiety symptoms was assessed through direct self-reported symptom levels and indirect, processing bias assessment (threat interpretation). Results indicated that fast and varied thought independently increased self-reported mania symptoms. Affect was significantly less positive and more negative during slow thought. No change in anxiety symptoms or threat interpretation was found between manipulation conditions. No evidence for the proposed combinational influence of speed and variability was found. Implications and avenues for therapeutic intervention are discussed.

Sustainable freight: impacts of the London congestion charge and low emissions zone

This paper assesses whether two sustainability policies currently in effect in London, a congestion charge zone and a low emission zone, have affected freight operations and reduced vehicle kilometers travelled. It investigates responses by freight operators, including re-timing, re-routing, or reducing the number of trips, or replacing vehicles. Freight traffic trends from 1994 to 2012 were identified using road traffic estimates, cordon counts, and vehicle speed data and supplemented by interviews with freight industry experts and operators. Findings indicate that freight traffic increased throughout London during this timeframe, but declined in the central boroughs partly within the congestion charge zone. The congestion charge may have time-shifted some light goods trips, but most freight trips face a variety of constraints on operators’ delivery window. No evidence was found of re-routing of freight traffic or avoidance traffic around the charged zone. The low emission zone spurred higher levels of operational change than the congestion charge zone, and it was effective at spurring freight vehicle replacement. The paper also discusses freight operators’ perceptions of these policies and how they could be improved.

A spatial modelling framework for assessing climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems: Response of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) biomass to warming water temperature

Mountain regions worldwide are particularly sensitive to on-going climate change. Specifically in the Alps in Switzerland, the temperature has increased twice as fast than in the rest of the Northern hemisphere. Water temperature closely follows the annual air temperature cycle, severely impacting streams and freshwater ecosystems. In the last 20 years, brown trout (Salmo trutta L) catch has declined by approximately 40-50% in many rivers in Switzerland. Increasing water temperature has been suggested as one of the most likely cause of this decline. Temperature has a direct effect on trout population dynamics through developmental and disease control but can also indirectly impact dynamics via food-web interactions such as resource availability. We developed a spatially explicit modelling framework that allows spatial and temporal projections of trout biomass using the Aare river catchment as a model system, in order to assess the spatial and seasonal patterns of trout biomass variation. Given that biomass has a seasonal variation depending on trout life history stage, we developed seasonal biomass variation models for three periods of the year (Autumn-Winter, Spring and Summer). Because stream water temperature is a critical parameter for brown trout development, we first calibrated a model to predict water temperature as a function of air temperature to be able to further apply climate change scenarios. We then built a model of trout biomass variation by linking water temperature to trout biomass measurements collected by electro-fishing in 21 stations from 2009 to 2011. The different modelling components of our framework had overall a good predictive ability and we could show a seasonal effect of water temperature affecting trout biomass variation. Our statistical framework uses a minimum set of input variables that make it easily transferable to other study areas or fish species but could be improved by including effects of the biotic environment and the evolution of demographical parameters over time. However, our framework still remains informative to spatially highlight where potential changes of water temperature could affect trout biomass. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.-

Numerical modelling of the impact of climate change on the morphology of Saint-Lawrence tributaries

Cette thèse examine les impacts sur la morphologie des tributaires du fleuve Saint-Laurent des changements dans leur débit et leur niveau de base engendrés par les changements climatiques prévus pour la période 2010–2099. Les tributaires sélectionnés (rivières Batiscan, Richelieu, Saint-Maurice, Saint-François et Yamachiche) ont été choisis en raison de leurs différences de taille, de débit et de contexte morphologique. Non seulement ces tributaires subissent-ils un régime hydrologique modifié en raison des changements climatiques, mais leur niveau de base (niveau d’eau du fleuve Saint-Laurent) sera aussi affecté. Le modèle morphodynamique en une dimension (1D) SEDROUT, à l’origine développé pour des rivières graveleuses en mode d’aggradation, a été adapté pour le contexte spécifique des tributaires des basses-terres du Saint-Laurent afin de simuler des rivières sablonneuses avec un débit quotidien variable et des fluctuations du niveau d’eau à l’aval. Un module pour simuler le partage des sédiments autour d’îles a aussi été ajouté au modèle. Le modèle ainsi amélioré (SEDROUT4-M), qui a été testé à l’aide de simulations à petite échelle et avec les conditions actuelles d’écoulement et de transport de sédiments dans quatre tributaires du fleuve Saint-Laurent, peut maintenant simuler une gamme de problèmes morphodynamiques de rivières. Les changements d’élévation du lit et d’apport en sédiments au fleuve Saint-Laurent pour la période 2010–2099 ont été simulés avec SEDROUT4-M pour les rivières Batiscan, Richelieu et Saint-François pour toutes les combinaisons de sept régimes hydrologiques (conditions actuelles et celles prédites par trois modèles de climat globaux (MCG) et deux scénarios de gaz à effet de serre) et de trois scénarios de changements du niveau de base du fleuve Saint-Laurent (aucun changement, baisse graduelle, baisse abrupte). Les impacts sur l’apport de sédiments et l’élévation du lit diffèrent entre les MCG et semblent reliés au statut des cours d’eau (selon qu’ils soient en état d’aggradation, de dégradation ou d’équilibre), ce qui illustre l’importance d’examiner plusieurs rivières avec différents modèles climatiques afin d’établir des tendances dans les effets des changements climatiques. Malgré le fait que le débit journalier moyen et le débit annuel moyen demeurent près de leur valeur actuelle dans les trois scénarios de MCG, des changements importants dans les taux de transport de sédiments simulés pour chaque tributaire sont observés. Ceci est dû à l’impact important de fortes crues plus fréquentes dans un climat futur de même qu’à l’arrivée plus hâtive de la crue printanière, ce qui résulte en une variabilité accrue dans les taux de transport en charge de fond. Certaines complications avec l’approche de modélisation en 1D pour représenter la géométrie complexe des rivières Saint-Maurice et Saint-François suggèrent qu’une approche bi-dimensionnelle (2D) devrait être sérieusement considérée afin de simuler de façon plus exacte la répartition des débits aux bifurcations autour des îles. La rivière Saint-François est utilisée comme étude de cas pour le modèle 2D H2D2, qui performe bien d’un point de vue hydraulique, mais qui requiert des ajustements pour être en mesure de pleinement simuler les ajustements morphologiques des cours d’eau.

Permutation Entropy Based Analysis of Complex Signals for Characterising Change in System Dynamics

Timely detection of sudden change in dynamics that adversely affect the performance of systems and quality of products has great scientific relevance. This work focuses on effective detection of dynamical changes of real time signals from mechanical as well as biological systems using a fast and robust technique of permutation entropy (PE). The results are used in detecting chatter onset in machine turning and identifying vocal disorders from speech signal.Permutation Entropy is a nonlinear complexity measure which can efficiently distinguish regular and complex nature of any signal and extract information about the change in dynamics of the process by indicating sudden change in its value. Here we propose the use of permutation entropy (PE), to detect the dynamical changes in two non linear processes, turning under mechanical system and speech under biological system.Effectiveness of PE in detecting the change in dynamics in turning process from the time series generated with samples of audio and current signals is studied. Experiments are carried out on a lathe machine for sudden increase in depth of cut and continuous increase in depth of cut on mild steel work pieces keeping the speed and feed rate constant. The results are applied to detect chatter onset in machining. These results are verified using frequency spectra of the signals and the non linear measure, normalized coarse-grained information rate (NCIR).PE analysis is carried out to investigate the variation in surface texture caused by chatter on the machined work piece. Statistical parameter from the optical grey level intensity histogram of laser speckle pattern recorded using a charge coupled device (CCD) camera is used to generate the time series required for PE analysis. Standard optical roughness parameter is used to confirm the results.Application of PE in identifying the vocal disorders is studied from speech signal recorded using microphone. Here analysis is carried out using speech signals of subjects with different pathological conditions and normal subjects, and the results are used for identifying vocal disorders. Standard linear technique of FFT is used to substantiate thc results.The results of PE analysis in all three cases clearly indicate that this complexity measure is sensitive to change in regularity of a signal and hence can suitably be used for detection of dynamical changes in real world systems. This work establishes the application of the simple, inexpensive and fast algorithm of PE for the benefit of advanced manufacturing process as well as clinical diagnosis in vocal disorders.

Assessment of trophic change and its probable impact on tropical estuarine environment (the Kodungallur-Azhikode estuary, India)

The cumulative effects of global change, including climate change, increased population density and domestic waste disposal, effluent discharges from industrial processes, agriculture and aquaculture will likely continue and increases the process of eutrophication in estuarine environments. Eutrophication is one of the leading causes of degraded water quality, water column hypoxia/anoxia, harmful algal bloom (HAB) and loss of habitat and species diversity in the estuarine environment. The present study attempts to characterize the trophic condition of coastal estuary using a simple tool; trophic index (TRIX) based on a linear combination of the log of four state variables with supplementary index Efficiency Coefficient (Eff. Coeff.) as a discriminating tool. Numerically, the index TRIX is scaled from 0 to10, covering a wide range of trophic conditions from oligotrophic to eutrophic. Study area Kodungallur-Azhikode Estuary (KAE) was comparatively shallow in nature with average depth of 3.6±0.2 m. Dissolve oxygen regime in the water column was ranged from 4.7±1.3 mgL−1 in Station I to 5.9±1.4 mgL−1 in Station IV. The average nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) of KAE water was 470 mg m−3; values ranged from Av. 364.4 mg m−3 at Station II to Av. 626.6 mg m−3at Station VII. The mean ammonium-nitrogen (NH4 +-N) varied from 54.1 mg m−3 at Station VII to 101 mg m−3 at Station III. The average Chl-a for the seven stations of KAE was 6.42±3.91 mg m−3. Comparisons over different spatial and temporal scales in the KAE and study observed that, estuary experiencing high productivity by the influence of high degree of eutrophication; an annual average of 6.91 TRIX was noticed in the KAE and seasonal highest was observed during pre monsoon period (7.15) and lowest during post monsoon period (6.51). In the spatial scale station V showed high value 7.37 and comparatively low values in the station VI (6.93) and station VII (6.96) and which indicates eutrophication was predominant in land cover area with comparatively high water residence time. Eff. Coeff. values in the KAE ranges from −2.74 during monsoon period to the lowest of −1.98 in pre monsoon period. Present study revealed that trophic state of the estuary under severe stress and the restriction of autochthonous and allochthonous nutrient loading should be keystone in mitigate from eutrophication process

The role of ligneous vegetation for livestock nutrition in the sub-Sahelian and Sudanian zones of West Africa: Potential effects of climate change

Climate change and variability in sub-Saharan West Africa is expected to have negative consequences for crop and livestock farming due to the strong dependence of these sectors on rainfall and natural resources, and the low adaptive capacity of crops farmers, agro-pastoralist and pastoralists in the region. The objective of this PhD research was to investigate the anticipated impacts of expected future climate change and variability on nutrition and grazing management of livestock in the prevailing extensive agro-pastoral and pastoral systems of the Sahelian and Sudanian zones of Burkina Faso. To achieve this, three studies were undertaken in selected village territories (100 km² each) in the southern Sahelian (Taffogo), northern Sudanian (Nobere, Safane) and southern Sudanian (Sokouraba) zone of the country during 2009 and 2010. The choice of two villages in the northern Sudanian zone was guided by the dichotomy between intense agricultural land use and high population density near Safane, and lower agricultural land use in the tampon zone between the village of Nobere and the National Park Kaboré Tambi of Pô. Using global positioning and geographical information systems tools, the spatio-temporal variation in the use of grazing areas by cattle, sheep and goats, and in their foraging behaviour in the four villages was assessed by monitoring three herds each per species during a one-year cycle (Chapter 2). Maximum itinerary lengths (km/d) were observed in the hot dry season (March-May); they were longer for sheep (18.8) and cattle (17.4) than for goats (10.5, p<0.05). Daily total grazing time spent on pasture ranged from 6 - 11 h with cattle staying longer on pasture than small ruminants (p<0.05). Feeding time accounted for 52% - 72% of daily time on pasture, irrespective of species. Herds spent longer time on pasture and walked farther distances in the southern Sahelian than the two Sudanian zones (p<0.01), while daily feeding time was longer in the southern Sudanian than in the other two zones (p>0.05). Proportional time spent resting decreased from the rainy (June - October) to the cool (November - February) and hot dry season (p<0.05), while in parallel the proportion of walking time increased. Feeding time of all species was to a significantly high proportion spent on wooded land (tree crown cover 5-10%, or shrub cover >10%) in the southern Sahelian zone, and on forest land (tree crown cover >10%) in the two Sudanian zones, irrespective of season. It is concluded that with the expansion of cropland in the whole region, remaining islands of wooded land, including also fields fallowed for three or more years with their considerable shrub cover, are particularly valuable pasturing areas for ruminant stock. Measures must be taken that counteract the shrinking of wooded land and forests across the whole region, including also active protection and (re)establishment of drought-tolerant fodder trees. Observation of the selection behaviour of the above herds of cattle and small ruminant as far as browse species were concerned, and interviews with 75 of Fulani livestock keepers on use of browse as feed by their ruminant stock and as remedies for animal disease treatment was undertaken (Chapter 3) in order to evaluate the consequence of climate change for the contribution of browse to livestock nutrition and animal health in the extensive grazing-based livestock systems. The results indicated that grazing cattle and small ruminants do make considerable use of browse species on pasture across the studied agro-ecological zones. Goats spent more time (p<0.01) feeding on browse species than sheep and cattle, which spent a low to moderate proportion of their feeding time on browsing in any of the study sites. As far as the agro-ecological zones were concerned, the contribution of browse species to livestock nutrition was more important in the southern Sahelian and northern Sudanian zone than the southern Sudanian zone, and this contribution is higher during the cold and hot dry season than during the rainy season. A total of 75 browse species were selected on pasture year around, whereby cattle strongly preferred Afzelia africana, Pterocarpus erinaceus and Piliostigma sp., while sheep and goats primarily fed on Balanites aegyptiaca, Ziziphus mauritiana and Acacia sp. Crude protein concentration (in DM) of pods or fruits of the most important browse species selected by goats, sheep and cattle ranged from 7% to 13% for pods, and from 10% to 18% for foliage. The concentration of digestible organic matter of preferred browse species mostly ranged from 40% to 60%, and the concentrations of total phenols, condensed tannins and acid detergent lignin were low. Linear regression analyses showed that browse preference on pasture is strongly related to its contents (% of DM) of CP, ADF, NDF and OM digestibility. Interviewed livestock keepers reported that browse species are increasingly use by their grazing animals, while for animal health care use of tree- and shrub-based remedies decreased over the last two decades. It is concluded that due to climate change with expected negative impact on the productivity of the herbaceous layer of communal pastures browse fodder will gain in importance for animal nutrition. Therefore re-establishment and dissemination of locally adapted browse species preferred by ruminants is needed to increase the nutritional situation of ruminant stock in the region and contribute to species diversity and soil fertility restoration in degraded pasture areas. In Chapter 4 a combination of household surveys and participatory research approaches was used in the four villages, and additionally in the village of Zogoré (southern Sahelian zone) and of Karangasso Vigué (northern Sudanian zone) to investigate pastoralists’ (n= 76) and agro-pastoralists’ (n= 83) perception of climate change, and their adaptation strategies in crop and livestock production at farm level. Across the three agro-ecological zones, the majority of the interviewees perceived an increase in maximum day temperatures and decrease of total annual rainfall over the last two decades. Perceptions of change in climate patterns were in line with meteorological data for increased temperatures while for total rainfall farmers’ views contrasted the rainfall records which showed a slight increase of precipitation. According to all interviewees climate change and variability have negative impacts on their crop and animal husbandry, and most of them already adopted some coping and adaptation strategies at farm level to secure their livelihoods and reduce negative impacts on their farming system. Although these strategies are valuable and can help crop and livestock farmers to cope with the recurrent droughts and climate variability, they are not effective against expected extreme climate events. Governmental and non-governmental organisations should develop effective policies and strategies at local, regional and national level to support farmers in their endeavours to cope with climate change phenomena; measures should be site-specific and take into account farmers’ experiences and strategies already in place.

The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

Análisis del Espacio Schengen en materia de seguridad como base para la implementación del Protocolo sobre la Facilitación del Movimiento de Personas de la Comunidad para el Desarrollo de África Austral (SADC)

El fin de la Guerra Fría supuso no sólo el triunfo del capitalismo y de la democracia liberal, sino un cambio significativo en el Sistema Internacional; siendo menos centralizado y más regionalizado, como consecuencia de la proximidad y relaciones de interdependencia entre sus actores (no sólo Estados) y permitiendo la formación de Complejos Regionales de Seguridad (CRS). Los CRS son una forma efectiva de relacionarse y aproximarse a la arena internacional pues a través de sus procesos de securitización y desecuritización consiguen lograr objetivos específicos. Partiendo de ello, tanto la Unión Europea (UE) como la Comunidad para el Desarrollo de África Austral (SADC) iniciaron varios procesos de securitización relacionados con la integración regional; siendo un ejemplo de ello la eliminación de los controles en sus fronteras interiores o libre circulación de personas; pues consideraron que de no hacerse realidad, ello generaría amenazas políticas (su influencia y capacidad de actuación estaban amenazadas), económicas (en cuanto a su competitividad y niveles básicos de bienestar) y societales (en cuanto a la identidad de la comunidad como indispensable para la integración) que pondrían en riesgo la existencia misma de sus CRS. En esta medida, la UE creó el Espacio Schengen, que fue producto de un proceso de securitización desde inicios de la década de los 80 hasta mediados de la década de los 90; y la SADC se encuentra inmersa en tal proceso de securitización desde 1992 hasta la actualidad y espera la ratificación del Protocolo para la Facilitación del Movimiento de personas como primer paso para lograr la eliminación de controles en sus fronteras interiores. Si bien tanto la UE como la SADC consideraron que de no permitir la libre circulación de personas, su integración y por lo tanto, sus CRS estaban en riesgo; la SADC no lo ha logrado. Ello hace indispensable hacer un análisis más profundo de sus procesos de securitización para así encontrar sus falencias con respecto al éxito de la UE. El análisis está basado en la Teoría de los Complejos de Seguridad de Barry Buzan, plasmada en la obra Security a New Framework for Analysis (1998) de Barry Buzan, Ole Waever y Jaap de Wilde y será dividido en cada una de las etapas del proceso de securitización: la identificación de una amenaza existencial a un objeto referente a través de un acto discursivo, la aceptación de una amenaza por parte de una audiencia relevante y las acciones de emergencia para hacer frente a las amenazas existenciales; reconociendo las diferencias y similitudes de un proceso de securitización exitoso frente a otro que aún no lo ha sido.

Análisis de la ayuda oficial al desarrollo. estudio de caso: programa conjunto de UNICEF y UNFPA sobre la mutilación genital femenina en Kenia (2008-2012)

El interés de este estudio de caso es analizar el Programa Conjunto de UNFPA y UNICEF sobre MGF/E en Kenia bajo la luz de los postulados poscolonialistas. Partiendo de la idea de que la MGF es una manifestación de las desigualdades de género, se argumenta que el PC reproduce la imagen de la mujer keniana como una víctima del poder masculino. A partir de esta imagen se deslegitima el orden cultural de los grupos que siguen esta tradición, afectando las lógicas de unidad y cohesión de la sociedad. El análisis de este tipo de dinámicas permite comprender mejor los procesos de intervención de las organizaciones internacionales sobre las estructuras sociales de actores frágiles del sistema internacional.

How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate?

Tropical Cyclones (TC) under different climate conditions in the Northern Hemisphere have been investigated with the Max Planck Institute (MPI) coupled (ECHAM5/MPIOM) and atmosphere (ECHAM5) climate models. The intensity and size of the TC depend crucially on resolution with higher wind speed and smaller scales at the higher resolutions. The typical size of the TC is reduced by a factor of 2.3 from T63 to T319 using the distance of the maximum wind speed from the centre of the storm as a measure. The full three dimensional structure of the storms becomes increasingly more realistic as the resolution is increased. For the T63 resolution, three ensemble runs are explored for the period 1860 until 2100 using the IPCC SRES scenario A1B and evaluated for three 30 year periods at the end of the 19th, 20th and 21st century, respectively. While there is no significant change between the 19th and the 20th century, there is a considerable reduction in the number of the TC by some 20% in the 21st century, but no change in the number of the more intense storms. Reduction in the number of storms occurs in all regions. A single additional experiment at T213 resolution was run for the two latter 30-year periods. The T213 is an atmospheric only experiment using the transient Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) of the T63 resolution experiment. Also in this case, there is a reduction by some 10% in the number of simulated TC in the 21st century compared to the 20th century but a marked increase in the number of intense storms. The number of storms with maximum wind speeds greater than 50ms-1 increases by a third. Most of the intensification takes place in 2 the Eastern Pacific and in the Atlantic where also the number of storms more or less stays the same. We identify two competing processes effecting TC in a warmer climate. First, the increase in the static stability and the reduced vertical circulation is suggested to contribute to the reduction in the number of storms. Second, the increase in temperature and water vapor provide more energy for the storms so that when favorable conditions occur, the higher SST and higher specific humidity will contribute to more intense storms. As the maximum intensity depends crucially on resolution, this will require higher resolution to have its full effect. The distribution of storms between different regions does not, at first approximation, depend on the temperature itself but on the distribution of the SST anomalies and their influence on the atmospheric circulation. Two additional transient experiments at T319 resolution where run for 20 years at the end of the 20th and 21st century, respectively using the same conditions as in the T213 experiments. The results are consistent with the T213 study. The total number of tropical cyclones were similar to the T213 experiment but were generally more intense. The change from the 20th to the 21st century was also similar with fewer TC in total but with more intense cyclones.

Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: Processes and uncertainties

Many modelling studies examine the impacts of climate change on crop yield, but few explore either the underlying bio-physical processes, or the uncertainty inherent in the parameterisation of crop growth and development. We used a perturbed-parameter crop modelling method together with a regional climate model (PRECIS) driven by the 2071-2100 SRES A2 emissions scenario in order to examine processes and uncertainties in yield simulation. Crop simulations used the groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) version of the General Large-Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). Two sets of GLAM simulations were carried out: control simulations and fixed-duration simulations, where the impact of mean temperature on crop development rate was removed. Model results were compared to sensitivity tests using two other crop models of differing levels of complexity: CROPGRO, and the groundnut model of Hammer et al. [Hammer, G.L., Sinclair, T.R., Boote, K.J., Wright, G.C., Meinke, H., and Bell, M.J., 1995, A peanut simulation model: I. Model development and testing. Agron. J. 87, 1085-1093]. GLAM simulations were particularly sensitive to two processes. First, elevated vapour pressure deficit (VPD) consistently reduced yield. The same result was seen in some simulations using both other crop models. Second, GLAM crop duration was longer, and yield greater, when the optimal temperature for the rate of development was exceeded. Yield increases were also seen in one other crop model. Overall, the models differed in their response to super-optimal temperatures, and that difference increased with mean temperature; percentage changes in yield between current and future climates were as diverse as -50% and over +30% for the same input data. The first process has been observed in many crop experiments, whilst the second has not. Thus, we conclude that there is a need for: (i) more process-based modelling studies of the impact of VPD on assimilation, and (ii) more experimental studies at super-optimal temperatures. Using the GLAM results, central values and uncertainty ranges were projected for mean 2071-2100 crop yields in India. In the fixed-duration simulations, ensemble mean yields mostly rose by 10-30%. The full ensemble range was greater than this mean change (20-60% over most of India). In the control simulations, yield stimulation by elevated CO2 was more than offset by other processes-principally accelerated crop development rates at elevated, but sub-optimal, mean temperatures. Hence, the quantification of uncertainty can facilitate relatively robust indications of the likely sign of crop yield changes in future climates. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Subseasonal extremes of precipitation and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate-change scenario

Changes to the behaviour of subseasonal precipitation extremes and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon are assessed in this study using pre-industrial and 2 × CO2 integrations of the Hadley Centre coupled model HadCM3, which is able to simulate the monsoon seasonal cycle reasonably. At 2 × CO2, mean summer rainfall increases slightly, especially over central and northern India. The mean intensity of daily precipitation during the monsoon is found to increase, consistent with fewer wet days, and there are increases to heavy rain events beyond changes in the mean alone. The chance of reaching particular thresholds of heavy rainfall is found to approximately double over northern India, increasing the likelihood of damaging floods on a seasonal basis. The local distribution of such projections is uncertain, however, given the large spread in mean monsoon rainfall change and associated extremes amongst even the most recent coupled climate models. The measured increase of the heaviest precipitation events over India is found to be broadly in line with the degree of atmospheric warming and associated increases in specific humidity, lending a degree of predictability to changes in rainfall extremes. Active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon, important particularly due to their effect on agricultural output, are shown to be reasonably represented in HadCM3, in particular with some degree of northward propagation. We note an intensification of both active and break events, particularly when measured against the annual cycle, although there is no suggestion of any change to the duration or likelihood of monsoon breaks. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society