Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: a welfare analysis

Traditionally the issue of an optimum currency area is based on the theoretical underpinnings developed in the 1960s by McKinnon [13], Kenen [12] and mainly Mundell [14], who is concerned with the benefits of lowering transaction costs vis-à- vis adjustments to asymmetrical shocks. Recently, this theme has been reappraised with new aspects included in the analysis, such as: incomplete markets, credibility of monetary policy and seigniorage, among others. For instance, Neumeyer [15] develops a general equilibrium model with incomplete asset markets and shows that a monetary union is desirable when the welfare gains of eliminating the exchange rate volatility are greater than the cost of reducing the number of currencies to hedge against risks. In this paper, we also resort to a general equilibrium model to evaluate financial aspects of an optimum currency area. Our focus is to appraise the welfare of a country heavily dependent on foreign capital that may suffer a speculative attack on its public debt. The welfare analysis uses as reference the self-fulfilling debt crisis model of Cole and Kehoe ([6], [7] and [8]), which is employed here to represent dollarization. Under this regime, the national government has no control over its monetary policy, the total public debt is denominated in dollars and it is in the hands of international bankers. To describe a country that is a member of a currency union, we modify the original Cole-Kehoe model by including public debt denominated in common currency, only purchased by national consumers. According to this rule, the member countries regain some influence over the monetary policy decision, which is, however, dependent on majority voting. We show that for specific levels of dollar debt, to create inflation tax on common-currency debt in order to avoid an external default is more desirable than to suspend its payment, which is the only choice available for a dollarized economy when foreign creditors decide not to renew their loans.

Speculative attacks, openness and crises

In this paper we propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to evaluate financial adjustments that some emerging market economies went through to overcome external crises during the latest decades, such as default and local currency devaluation. We assume that real devaluation can be used to avoid external debt default, to improve trade balance and to reduce the real public debt level denominated in local currency. Such effects increase the government ability to deal with external crisis, but also have costs in terms of welfare, related to expected inflation, reductions in private investments and higher interest to be paid over the public debt. We conclude that openness improves expected welfare as it allows for a better devaluation-response technology against crises. We also present results for 32 middle-income countries, verifying that the proposed model can indicate, in a stylized way, the preferences for default-devaluation options and the magnitude of the currency depreciation required to overcome 48 external crises occurred as from 1971. Finally, as we construct our model based on the Cole-Kehoe self-fulfilling debt crisis model ([7]), adding local debt and trade, it is important to say that their policy alternatives to leave the crisis zone remains in our extended model, namely, to reduce the external debt level and to lengthen its maturity.

Speculative attacks on debts, dollarization and optimum currency areas

The purpose of this article is to contribute to the discussion of the financial aspects of dollarization and optimum currency areas. Based on the model of self-fulfilling debt crisis developed by Cole and Kehoe [4], it is possible to evaluate the comparative welfare of economies, which either keep their local currency and an independent monetary policy, join a monetary union or adopt dollarization. In the two former monetary regimes, governments can issue debt denominated, respectively, in local and common currencies, which is completely purchased by national consumers. Given this ability, governments may decide to impose an inflation tax on these assets and use the revenues so collected to avoid an external debt crises. While the country that issues its own currency takes this decision independently, a country belonging to a monetary union depends on the joint decision of all member countries about the common monetary policy. In this way, an external debt crises may be avoided under the local and common currency regimes, if, respectively, the national and the union central banks have the ability to do monetary policy, represented by the reduction in the real return on the bonds denominated in these currencies. This resource is not available under dollarization. In a dollarized economy, the loss of control over national monetary policy does not allow adjustments for exogenous shocks that asymmetrically affect the client and the anchor countries, but credibility is strengthened. On the other hand, given the ability to inflate the local currency, the central bank may be subject to the political influence of a government not so strongly concerned with fiscal discipline, which reduces the welfare of the economy. In a similar fashion, under a common currency regime, the union central bank may also be under the influence of a group of countries to inflate the common currency, even though they do not face external restrictions. Therefore, the local and common currencies could be viewed as a way to provide welfare enhancing bankruptcy, if it is not abused. With these peculiarities of monetary regimes in mind, we simulate the levels of economic welfare for each, employing recent data for the Brazilian economy.

Hypercapnic ventilatory response of anesthetized female rats subjected to neonatal maternal separation: Insight into the origins of panic attacks?

Neonatal maternal separation (NMS) is a form of stress that interferes with the regulation of the stress response, an effect that predisposes to the emergence of panic and anxiety related disorders. We previously showed that at adulthood, awake female (but not male) rats subjected to NMS show a hypercapnic ventilatory response (HCVR; 5% CO(2)) that is 63% greater than controls (Genest et al., 2007). To understand the mechanisms underlying the sex-specific effects of NMS on the ventilatory response to CO(2), we used two different anesthetized female rat preparations to assess central CO(2) chemosensitivity and contribution of sensory afferents (stretch receptors and peripheral chemoreceptors) that influence the HCVR. Data show that anesthesia eliminated the respiratory phenotype observed previously in awake females and CO(2) chemosensitivity did not differ between groups. Finally, the assessment of the ovarian hormone levels across the oestrus cycle failed to reveal significant differences between groups. Since anesthesia did not affect the manifestation of NMS-related respiratory dysfunction in males (including the hypercapnic ventilatory response) (Kinkead et al., 2005; Dumont and Kinkead, 2010), we propose that the panic or anxiety induced by CO(2) during wakefulness is responsible for enhancement of the HCVR in NMS females. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GLOBAL DYNAMICS of THE LORENZ SYSTEM WITH INVARIANT ALGEBRAIC SURFACES

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Piranha attacks in dammed streams used for human recreation in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Ataques por piranhas vêm se tornando um problema comum em trechos represados de rios e córregos no estado de São Paulo, Sudeste do Brasil. em dois surtos ocorridos em dois municípios vizinhos no noroeste do estado, 74 banhistas foram mordidos. Uma mordida por pessoa foi registrada, em curto período do ano. As mordidas estão relacionadas a cuidado parental e/ou defesa do território de desova, o que reforça estudos anteriores e desmistifica os ataques por este peixe lendário, da maneira como são popularmente percebidos. A colocação de redes de malha fina e a remoção de vegetação aquática cessaram os ataques.

Coati (Nasua nasua) Attacks on Humans: Case Report

Coatis [including Nasua nasua, the ring-tailed coati], are medium-sized mammals widely distributed in the Americas. They are social animals, whose normal diet includes insects, fruits, and small vertebrates, and rarely prey on larger sized animals. There are, to our knowledge, no reports in the medical literature of attacks on humans. This report describes a coati attack on 2 children in their home. The children sustained deep scratches and bites. The animal may have injured the humans in a defensive strike, but motivation for attack was uncertain. Coati attacks may occur in places where there is interaction between these mammals and humans.

Unsuccessful attacks dominate a drone-preying wasp's hunting performance near stingless bee nests

Bee males (drones) of stingless bees tend to congregate near entrances of conspecific nests, where they wait for virgin queens that initiate their nuptial flight. We observed that the Neotropical solitary wasp Trachypus boharti (Hymenoptera, Cabronidae) specifically preys on males of the stingless bee Scaptotrigona postica (Hymenoptera, Apidae); these wasps captured up to 50 males per day near the entrance of a single hive. Over 90% of the wasp attacks were unsuccessful; such erroneous attacks often involved conspecific wasps and worker bees. After the capture of non-male prey, wasps almost immediately released these individuals unharmed and continued hunting. A simple behavioral experiment showed that at short distances wasps were not specifically attracted to S. postica males nor were they repelled by workers of the same species. Likely, short-range prey detection near the bees' nest is achieved mainly by vision whereas close-range prey recognition is based principally on chemical and/or mechanical cues. We argue that the dependence on the wasp's visual perception during attack and the crowded and dynamic hunting conditions caused wasps to make many preying attempts that failed. Two wasp-density-related factors, wasp-prey distance and wasp-wasp encounters, may account for the fact that the highest male capture and unsuccessful wasp bee encounter rates occurred at intermediate wasp numbers.

Nest defense behavior against ant attacks in post-emergent colonies of wasp Mischocyttarus cerberus (Hymenoptera, Vespidae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

GLOBAL DYNAMICS IN THE POINCARE BALL of THE CHEN SYSTEM HAVING INVARIANT ALGEBRAIC SURFACES

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Constructions of algebraic lattices

In this work we present constructions of algebraic lattices in Euclidean space with optimal center density in dimensions 2, 3, 4, 6, 8 and 12, which are rotated versions of the lattices Λn, for n = 2,3,4,6,8 and K12. These algebraic lattices are constructed through twisted canonical homomorphism via ideals of a ring of algebraic integers. Mathematical subject classification: 18B35, 94A15, 20H10.

On the algebraic K theory of the massive D8 and M9-branes

In this paper we review some basic relations of algebraic K theory and we formulate them in the language of D-branes. Then we study the relation between the D8-branes wrapped on an orientable, compact manifold W in a massive Type IIA, supergravity background and the M9-branes wrapped on a compact manifold Z in a massive d = 11 supergravity background from the K-theoretic point of view. By interpreting the D8-brane charges as elements of K-0(C(W)) and the (inequivalent classes of) spaces of gauge fields on the M9-branes as the elements of K-0(C(Z) x ((k) over bar*) G) where G is a one-dimensional compact group, a connection between charges and gauge fields is argued to exists. This connection could be realized as a composition map between the corresponding algebraic K theory groups.

Spacetime algebraic skeleton

The cosmological constant is shown to have an algebraic meaning: it is essentially an eigenvalue of a Casimir invariant of the Lorentz group acting on the spaces tangent to every spacetime. This is found in the context of de Sitter spacetimes, for which the Einstein equation is a relation between operators. Nevertheless, the result brings, to the foreground the skeleton algebraic structure underlying the geometry of general physical spacetimes. which differ from one another by the fleshening of that structure by different tetrad fields.