The role of seeds and airborne inoculum in the initiation of leaf blotch (Rhynchosporium secalis) epidemics in winter barley

Both airborne spores of Rhynchosporium secalis and seed infection have been implied as major sources of primary inoculum for barley leaf blotch (scald) epidemics in fields without previous history of barley cropping. However, little is known about their relative importance in the onset of disease. Results from both quantitative real-time PCR and visual assessments indicated that seed infection was the main source of inoculum in the field trial conducted in this study. Glasshouse studies established that the pathogen can be transmitted from infected seeds into roots, shoots and leaves without causing symptoms. Plants in the field trial remained symptomless for approximately four months before symptoms were observed in the crop. Covering the crop during part of the growing season was shown to prevent pathogen growth, despite the use of infected seed, indicating that changes in the physiological condition of the plant and/or environmental conditions may trigger disease development. However, once the disease appeared in the field it quickly became uniform throughout the cropping area. Only small amounts of R. secalis DNA were measured in 24 h spore-trap tape samples using PCR. Inoculum levels equivalent to spore concentrations between 30 and 60 spores per m3 of air were only detected on three occasions during the growing season. The temporal pattern and level of detection of R. secalis DNA in spore tape samples indicated that airborne inoculum was limited and most likely represented rain-splashed conidia rather than putative ascospores.

PETS2009 and Winter-PETS 2009 results: a combined evaluation

This paper presents the results of the crowd image analysis challenge of the Winter PETS 2009 workshop. The evaluation is carried out using a selection of the metrics developed in the Video Analysis and Content Extraction (VACE) program and the CLassification of Events, Activities, and Relationships (CLEAR) consortium [13]. The evaluation highlights the detection and tracking performance of the authors’systems in areas such as precision, accuracy and robustness. The performance is also compared to the PETS 2009 submitted results.

Some physical drivers of changes in the winter storm tracks over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean during the Holocene

The winter climate of Europe and the Mediterranean is dominated by the weather systems of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The behaviour of the storm tracks is highly variable, particularly in the eastern North Atlantic, and has a profound impact on the hydroclimate of the Mediterranean region. A deeper understanding of the storm tracks and the factors that drive them is therefore crucial for interpreting past changes in Mediterranean climate and the civilizations it has supported over the last 12 000 years (broadly the Holocene period). This paper presents a discussion of how changes in climate forcing (e.g. orbital variations, greenhouse gases, ice sheet cover) may have impacted on the ‘basic ingredients’ controlling the mid-latitude storm tracks over the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean on intermillennial time scales. Idealized simulations using the HadAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) are used to explore the basic processes, while a series of timeslice simulations from a similar atmospheric GCM coupled to a thermodynamic slab ocean (HadSM3) are examined to identify the impact these drivers have on the storm track during the Holocene. The results suggest that the North Atlantic storm track has moved northward and strengthened with time since the Early to Mid-Holocene. In contrast, the Mediterranean storm track may have weakened over the same period. It is, however, emphasized that much remains still to be understood about the evolution of the North Atlantic and Mediterranean storm tracks during the Holocene period.

Children playing branded video games: The impact of interactivity on product placement effectiveness

This study extends product placement research by testing the impact of interactivity on product placement effectiveness. The results suggest that when children cannot interact with the placements in video games, perceptual fluency is the underlying mechanism leading to positive affect. Therefore, the effects are only evident in a stimulus-based choice where the same stimulus is provided as a cue. However, when children have the opportunity to interact with the placements in video games, they may be influenced by conceptual fluency. Thus, placements are still effective in a memory-based choice where no stimulus is provided as a cue. Keywords: Perceptual fluency; Conceptual fluency; Video games; Interactivity; Children; Product placement

Sea-ice anomalies in the Sea of Okhotsk and the relationship with storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere during winter

Previous studies have shown that sea-ice in the Sea of Okhotsk can be affected by local storms; in turn, the resultant sea-ice changes can affect the downstream development of storm tracks in the Pacific and possibly dampen a pre-existing North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) signal in late winter. In this paper, a storm tracking algorithm was applied to the six hourly horizontal winds from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data from 1978(9) to 2007 and output from the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ECHAM5 forced by sea-ice anomalies in the Sea of Okhotsk. The life cycle response of storms to sea-ice anomalies is investigated using various aspects of storm activity—cyclone genesis, lysis, intensity and track density. Results show that, for enhanced positive sea-ice concentrations in the Sea of Okhotsk, there is a decrease in secondary cyclogenesis, a westward shift in cyclolysis and changes in the subtropical jet are seen in the North Pacific. In the Atlantic, a pattern resembling the negative phase of the NAO is observed. This pattern is confirmed by the AGCM ECHAM5 experiments driven with above normal sea-ice anomalies in the Sea of Okhotsk

Influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation on the extratropical winter stratosphere in an atmospheric general circulation model and in reanalysis data

The interannual variability of the stratospheric polar vortex during winter in both hemispheres is observed to correlate strongly with the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical stratospheric winds. It follows that the lack of a spontaneously generated QBO in most atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) adversely affects the nature of polar variability in such models. This study examines QBO–vortex coupling in an AGCM in which a QBO is spontaneously induced by resolved and parameterized waves. The QBO–vortex coupling in the AGCM compares favorably to that seen in reanalysis data [from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40)], provided that careful attention is given to the definition of QBO phase. A phase angle representation of the QBO is employed that is based on the two leading empirical orthogonal functions of equatorial zonal wind vertical profiles. This yields a QBO phase that serves as a proxy for the vertical structure of equatorial winds over the whole depth of the stratosphere and thus provides a means of subsampling the data to select QBO phases with similar vertical profiles of equatorial zonal wind. Using this subsampling, it is found that the QBO phase that induces the strongest polar vortex response in early winter differs from that which induces the strongest late-winter vortex response. This is true in both hemispheres and for both the AGCM and ERA-40. It follows that the strength and timing of QBO influence on the vortex may be affected by the partial seasonal synchronization of QBO phase transitions that occurs both in observations and in the model. This provides a mechanism by which changes in the strength of QBO–vortex correlations may exhibit variability on decadal time scales. In the model, such behavior occurs in the absence of external forcings or interannual variations in sea surface temperatures.

Winter and Summer Northern Hemisphere blocking in CMIP5 models

The frequencies of atmospheric blocking in both winter and summer and the changes in them from the 20th to the 21st centuries as simulated in twelve CMIP5 models is analysed. The RCP 8.5 high emission scenario runs are used to represent the 21st century. The analysis is based on the wave-breaking methodology of Pelly and Hoskins (2003a). It differs from the Tibaldi and Molteni (1990) index in viewing equatorward cut-off lows and poleward blocking highs in equal manner as indicating a disruption to the westerlies. 1-dimensional and 2-dimensional diagnostics are applied to identify blocking of the mid-latitude storm-track and also at higher latitudes. Winter blocking frequency is found to be generally underestimated. The models give a decrease in the European blocking maximum in the 21st century, consistent with the results in other studies. There is a mean 21st century winter poleward shift of high- latitude blocking, but little agreement between the models on the details. In summer, Eurasian blocking is also underestimated in the models, whereas it is now too large over the high-latitude ocean basins. A decrease in European blocking frequency in the 21st century model runs is again found. However in summer there is a clear eastward shift of blocking over Eastern Europe and Western Russia, in a region close to the blocking that dominated the Russian summer of 2010. While summer blocking decreases in general, the poleward shift of the storm track into the region of frequent high latitude blocking may mean that the incidence of storms being obstructed by blocks may actually increase.

Are the winters 2010 and 2012 archetypes exhibiting extreme opposite behavior of the North Atlantic jet stream?

The atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic-European sector experienced exceptional but highly contrasting conditions in the recent 2010 and 2012 winters (November-March; with the year dated by the relevant January). Evidence is given for the remarkably different locations of the eddy-driven westerly jet over the North Atlantic. In the 2010 winter the maximum of the jet stream was systematically between 30ºN and 40ºN (in the ‘south jet regime’), while in the 2012 winter it was predominantly located around 55ºN (north jet regime). These jet features underline the occurrence of either weak flow (2010) or strong and persistent ridges throughout the troposphere (2012). This is confirmed by the very different occurrence of blocking systems over the North Atlantic, associated with episodes of strong cyclonic (anticyclonic) Rossby wave breaking in 2010 (2012) winters. These dynamical features underlie strong precipitation and temperature anomalies over parts of Europe, with detrimental impacts on many socioeconomic sectors. Despite the highly contrasting atmospheric states, mid and high-latitude boundary conditions do not reveal strong differences in these two winters. The two winters were associated with opposite ENSO phases, but there is no causal evidence of a remote forcing from the Pacific sea surface temperatures. Finally, the exceptionality of the two winters is demonstrated in relation to the last 140 years. It is suggested that these winters may be seen as archetypes of North Atlantic jet variability under current climate conditions.

Large-scale atmospheric dynamics of the wet winter 2009–2010 and its impact on hydrology in Portugal

The anomalously wet winter of 2010 had a very important impact on the Portuguese hydrological system. Owing to the detrimental effects of reduced precipitation in Portugal on the environmental and socio-economic systems, the 2010 winter was predominantly beneficial by reversing the accumulated precipitation deficits during the previous hydrological years. The recorded anomalously high precipitation amounts have contributed to an overall increase in river runoffs and dam recharges in the 4 major river basins. In synoptic terms, the winter 2010 was characterised by an anomalously strong westerly flow component over the North Atlantic that triggered high precipitation amounts. A dynamically coherent enhancement in the frequencies of mid-latitude cyclones close to Portugal, also accompanied by significant increases in the occurrence of cyclonic, south and south-westerly circulation weather types, are noteworthy. Furthermore, the prevalence of the strong negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) also emphasises the main dynamical features of the 2010 winter. A comparison of the hydrological and atmospheric conditions between the 2010 winter and the previous 2 anomalously wet winters (1996 and 2001) was also carried out to isolate not only their similarities, but also their contrasting conditions, highlighting the limitations of estimating winter precipitation amounts in Portugal using solely the NAO phase as a predictor.

Explosive development of winter storm Xynthia over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean

In winter of 2009–2010 south-western Europe was hit by several destructive windstorms. The most important was Xynthia (26–28 February 2010), which caused 64 reported casualties and was classified as the 2nd most expensive natural hazard event for 2010 in terms of economic losses. In this work we assess the synoptic evolution, dynamical characteristics and the main impacts of storm Xynthia, whose genesis, development and path were very uncommon. Wind speed gusts observed at more than 500 stations across Europe are evaluated as well as the wind gust field obtained with a regional climate model simulation for the entire North Atlantic and European area. Storm Xynthia was first identified on 25 February around 30° N, 50° W over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. Its genesis occurred on a region characterized by warm and moist air under the influence of a strong upper level wave embedded in the westerlies. Xynthia followed an unusual SW–NE path towards Iberia, France and central Europe. The role of moist air masses on the explosive development of Xynthia is analysed by considering the evaporative sources. A lagrangian model is used to identify the moisture sources, sinks and moisture transport associated with the cyclone during its development phase. The main supply of moisture is located over an elongated region of the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean with anomalously high SST, confirming that the explosive development of storm Xynthia had a significant contribution from the subtropics.

Yield and nitrogen accumulation and partitioning in winter wheat under elevated CO2: A 3-year free-air CO2 enrichment experiment

Fossil fuel combustion and deforestation have resulted in a rapid increase in atmospheric [CO2] since the 1950’s, and it will reach about 550 μmol mol−1 in 2050. Field experiments were conducted at the Free-air CO2 Enrichment facility in Beijing, China. Winter wheat was grown to maturity under elevated [CO2] (550 ± 17 μmol mol−1) and ambient [CO2] (415 ± 16 μmol mol−1), with high nitrogen (N) supply (HN, 170 kg N ha−1) and low nitrogen supply (LN, 100 kg N ha−1) for three growing seasons from 2007 to 2010. Elevated [CO2] increased wheat grain yield by 11.4% across the three years. [CO2]-induced yield enhancements were 10.8% and 11.9% under low N and high N supply, respectively. Nitrogen accumulation under elevated [CO2] was increased by 12.9% and 9.2% at the half-way anthesis and ripening stage across three years, respectively. Winter wheat had higher nitrogen demand under elevated [CO2] than ambient [CO2], and grain yield had a stronger correlation with plant N uptake after anthesis than before anthesis at high [CO2]. Our results suggest that regulating on the N application rate and time, is likely important for sustainable grain production under future CO2 climate.

Sports and mediatization : a case of women´s ski-jumping

Ski jumping was the only sport included in the Winter Olympics, where women were not allowed to take part until the first week of April 2011, when IOC decided to let them in to the Olympic family, a major victory for women´s ski-jumping. Since 2004 the Norwegian media had women ski jumping as one important topic in their media coverage. The third of March 2010 the new Holmenkollen ski-jumping hill was inaugurated. It had been rebuilt for the World Championships 2011. The first jump on the hill was surrounded by an intense debate. Annette Sagen was decided to be the first jumper on the hill after a poll on the social media channel Facebook that gave Annette Sagen over 40 000 votes.  However Tuesday the second of March Björn Einar Romören, a world cup jumper, did the first jump during a training session. This act started a significant chain of events. The biggest Norwegian web – magazines Verldens Gang and Aftenposten made this the head story and they invited the readers to interaction. Within 24 hours 11 000 comments were written, most of them in favor of Sagen and against Romören´s behavior. The Norwegian Ski Association excluded Romören from two World Cup competitions. What did happen during these days in the media?  I want to present the activities, which went on in two web-magazines, and analyze the articles written on the topic. Main issues are to show what an impact a social media network had on the sport in this specific case and how different actors appeared in the media and discuss if Romörens exclusion was a result of the mediatization.

Megaeventos esportivos: impactos no turismo das cidades sedes.

O presente trabalho visa ilustrar a importância de se analisar os impactos de um megaevento esportivo, como a Copa do Mundo, no turismo do destino sede. A escolha do tema se dá pelo fato de iniciativas como essas terem se tornadas estratégicas nos últimos anos e muito disputadas por governos em todo o mundo. O motivo da escolha do tema se dá especialmente pelo fato do Brasil sediar, em curto espaço de tempo, dois dos principais megaeventos esportivos internacionais: a Copa do Mundo, em 2014, e os Jogos Olímpicos, em 2016. O trabalho, composto por 8 capítulos procura, com base no referencial teórico, identificar os principais impactos dos megaeventos no segmento de turismo do destino sede. Para se atingir este objetivo, utilizou-se o modelo de avaliação proposto por Allen et al (2003), cientista internacional referencia nessa área de estudo. Dentre os possíveis impactos positivos engloba-se a promoção do destino e incremento do turismo, o aumento do tempo de permanência do turista, a lucratividade para o setor, o aumento da renda de impostos, a oportunidade de negócios, investimento em infra-estrutura no destino, a atividade comercial e a geração de empregos pela realização do evento. Por outro lado, dentre os impactos negativos, destacam-se a resistência da comunidade ao turismo, a perda de autenticidade e danos à reputação do destino, exploração, preços inflacionados, custos de oportunidade, má gestão financeira, perda financeira, dentre outros. O método de pesquisa, baseado em Yin (2005), foi o estudo de caso baseado nos dois eventos mais recentes de Copa do Mundo: Alemanha (2006) e África do Sul (2010). O estudo teve um viés qualitativo e os instrumentos de coleta de dados foram diferenciados em cada uma das etapas da pesquisa, englobando pesquisa a dados primários e secundários, consulta à relatórios oficiais e principalmente a consulta a artigos acadêmicos de renomados autores internacionais especialistas em eventos. Foram também consultadas pesquisas de renomadas instituições, tais como Organização Mundial do Turismo OMT (2006), Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV, 2009), FIPE (2005), EMBRATUR e Ministério do Turismo (MTUR), entre outras. Os resultados demonstram que os megaeventos geram oportunidades para o destino sede - de curto, médio e longo prazo - para os diferentes segmentos, em especial para o turismo de eventos e esportivo, seja no âmbito nacional ou internacional. Também observa-se a importância das ações de melhoria não serem pontuais, para que justifiquem o próprio legado do evento em pauta. Por outro lado, verifica-se a importância de se realizar ações que visem mitigar os impactos negativos inerentes a megaeventos, a fim de não se comprometer o turismo do destino ou pais sede, sua reputação, seus cofres públicos e sua comunidade.