Fuzzy risk index for power transformer failures due to external short-circuits

A novel methodology to assess the risk of power transformer failures caused by external faults, such as short-circuit, taking the paper insulation condition into account, is presented. The risk index is obtained by contrasting the insulation paper condition with the probability that the transformer withstands the short-circuit current flowing along the winding during an external fault. In order to assess the risk, this probability and the value of the degree of polymerization of the insulating paper are regarded as inputs of a type-2 fuzzy logic system (T2-FLS), which computes the fuzzy risk level. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to find the survival function of the currents flowing through the transformer winding during a single-phase or a three-phase short-circuit. The Roy Billinton Test System and a real power system have been used to test the results. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

MULTIVARIATE STATISTICAL METHOD IN OPTIMIZATION OF PROTEIN EXTRACTION FROM SOYBEAN FLOUR WITH DAIRY WHEY

The aim objective of this project was to evaluate the protein extraction of soybean flour in dairy whey, by the multivariate statistical method with 2(3) experiments. Influence of three variables were considered: temperature, pH and percentage of sodium chloride against the process specific variable ( percentage of protein extraction). It was observed that, during the protein extraction against time and temperature, the treatments at 80 degrees C for 2h presented great values of total protein (5.99%). The increasing for the percentage of protein extraction was major according to the heating time. Therefore, the maximum point from the function that represents the protein extraction was analysed by factorial experiment 2(3). By the results, it was noted that all the variables were important to extraction. After the statistical analyses, was observed that the parameters as pH, temperature, and percentage of sodium chloride, did not sufficient for the extraction process, since did not possible to obtain the inflection point from mathematical function, however, by the other hand, the mathematical model was significant, as well as, predictive.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

The potential for increasing rubber production by matching tapping intensity to leaf area index

Understanding resource capture can help design appropriate species combinations, planting designs and management. Leaf area index (LAI) and its longevity are the most important factors defining dry matter production and thus growth and productivity. The ecophysiological modifications and yield of rubber (Hevea spp.) in an agroforestry system (AFS) with beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) were studied. The experiment was established in Southeast-Brazil, with three rubber cultivars: IAN 3087, RRIM 600 and RRIM 527. The AFS comprised double rows of rubber trees along with beans sown in autumn and winter seasons in 1999. There was about 50% higher rubber yield per tree in the AFS than the rubber monoculture. Trees within the AFS responded to higher solar radiation availability with higher LAI and total foliage area, allowing its greater interception. All three cultivars had higher LAI in the AFS than monoculture, reaching maximum values in the AFS between April and May of 3.17 for RRIM 527; 2.83 for RRIM 600 and 2.28 for IAN 3087. The maximum LAI values for monocrop rubber trees were: 2.65, 2.62 and 1.99, respectively, for each cultivar. Rubber production and LAI were positively correlated in both the AFS and monoculture but leaf fall of rubber trees in the AFS was delayed and total phytomass was larger. It is suggested that trees in the AFS were under exploited and could yield more without compromising their life cycle if the tapping system was intensified. This shows how knowledge of LAI can be used to manage tapping intensity in the field, leading to higher rubber yield.

Spatial Modeling of a Soil Fertility Index using Visible-Near-Infrared Spectra and Terrain Attributes

Our objective was to develop a methodology to predict soil fertility using visible near-infrared (vis-NIR) diffuse reflectance spectra and terrain attributes derived from a digital elevation model (DEM). Specifically, our aims were to: (i) assemble a minimum data set to develop a soil fertility index for sugarcane (Sarcharum officinarum L.) (SFI-SC) for biofuel production in tropical soils; (ii) construct a model to predict the SFI-SC using soil vis-NIR spectra and terrain attributes; and (iii) produce a soil fertility map for our study area and assess it by comparing it with a green vegetation index (GVI). The study area was 185 ha located in sao Paulo State, Brazil. In total, 184 soil samples were collected and analyzed for a range of soil chemical and physical properties. Their vis-NIR spectra were collected from 400 to 2500 nm. The Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission 3-arcsec (90-m resolution) DEM of the area was used to derive 17 terrain attributes. A minimum data set of soil properties was selected to develop the SFI-SC. The SFI-SC consisted of three classes: Class 1, the highly fertile soils; Class 2, the fertile soils; and Class 3, the least fertile soils. It was derived heuristically with conditionals and using expert knowledge. The index was modeled with the spectra and terrain data using cross-validated decision trees. The cross-validation of the model correctly predicted Class 1 in 75% of cases, Class 2 in 61%, and Class 3 in 65%. A fertility map was derived for the study area and compared with a map of the GVI. Our approach offers a methodology that incorporates expert knowledge to derive the SFI-SC and uses a versatile spectro-spatial methodology that may be implemented for rapid and accurate determination of soil fertility and better exploration of areas suitable for production.

Body weight as an indicator of fat-free mass in active elderly women

Objective: Fat-free mass (FFM) reduction and the tendency for a reduction in surrounding fatty issue and increase in the middle are a natural consequence of growing old and should be studied in order to gain a better understanding of the aging process. This study set out to find the FFM differences between active elderly women in two age groups (60-69 and 70-80 years) and to determine which of the anthropometric measurements, body weight (BW), abdominal circumference (AC), or body mass index (BMI) are the best predictors of FFM variation within the group. Methods: Eighty-one (n = 81) active elderly women of the Third Age willingly signed up to participate in the research during the activities at the University of the Third Age (UTA) in Brazil. The research was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Faculty of Medical Sciences of the State University of Campinas (UNICAMP). Body weight (BW), height (H) and the BMI were measured according to the international standards. The AC was measured in centimetres at the H of the navel and body composition was ascertained using bioimpedance analysis. The SAS program was used to perform the statistical analysis of independent samples and parametric data. Results: The results showed FFM values with significant differences between the two groups, with the lowest values occurring among the women who were over 70 years of age. In the analysis, the Pearson`s Correlation Coefficient for each measured independent variable was ascertained, with the BW measurement showing the highest ratio (0.900). Conclusions: The BW measurement was regarded as reliable, low-cost and easy to use for monitoring FFM in elderly women who engage in physical activities. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Leaf area index estimation with MODIS reflectance time series and model inversion during full rotations of Eucalyptus plantations

The leaf area index (LAI) of fast-growing Eucalyptus plantations is highly dynamic both seasonally and interannually, and is spatially variable depending on pedo-climatic conditions. LAI is very important in determining the carbon and water balance of a stand, but is difficult to measure during a complete stand rotation and at large scales. Remote-sensing methods allowing the retrieval of LAI time series with accuracy and precision are therefore necessary. Here, we tested two methods for LAI estimation from MODIS 250m resolution red and near-infrared (NIR) reflectance time series. The first method involved the inversion of a coupled model of leaf reflectance and transmittance (PROSPECT4), soil reflectance (SOILSPECT) and canopy radiative transfer (4SAIL2). Model parameters other than the LAI were either fixed to measured constant values, or allowed to vary seasonally and/or with stand age according to trends observed in field measurements. The LAI was assumed to vary throughout the rotation following a series of alternately increasing and decreasing sigmoid curves. The parameters of each sigmoid curve that allowed the best fit of simulated canopy reflectance to MODIS red and NIR reflectance data were obtained by minimization techniques. The second method was based on a linear relationship between the LAI and values of the GEneralized Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (GESAVI), which was calibrated using destructive LAI measurements made at two seasons, on Eucalyptus stands of different ages and productivity levels. The ability of each approach to reproduce field-measured LAI values was assessed, and uncertainty on results and parameter sensitivities were examined. Both methods offered a good fit between measured and estimated LAI (R(2) = 0.80 and R(2) = 0.62 for model inversion and GESAVI-based methods, respectively), but the GESAVI-based method overestimated the LAI at young ages. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Body composition and quality of life (QoL) of the elderly offered by the ""University Third Age`` (UTA) in Brazil

The investigation of the factors that interfere in the well-being of the elderly and their QoL can provide theoretical and methodological subsidies in structuring actions and policies in the health area, in order to fulfill the needs of that population. In this descriptive transversal study, body composition and QoL of elderly women at the UTA program in Piracicaba (Sao Paulo, Brazil) were verified. The participants were 81 women from UTA, and the general levels of physical activity were evaluated, as well as body weight (BW), height, and bodymass index (BMI). The waist circumference (WC) was measured at the level of the umbilical scar and the body composition by impedance (BIA 310e). QoL was verified by means of WHOQOL-Bref and statistical analysis developed with the SAS program. The decrease of weight, height, BMI, and fat-free mass (FFM) was observed among the several age groups, although with no significant difference. The average levels of the general QoL scores and physical, psychological and environmental domains decreased in higher age groups, but social domains showed the opposite result. This fact can be a particular characteristic of the UTA group, and factors the influence such behavior are yet to be studied. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relating MODIS vegetation index time-series with structure, light absorption and stem production of fast-growing Eucalyptus plantations

By allowing the estimation of forest structural and biophysical characteristics at different temporal and spatial scales, remote sensing may contribute to our understanding and monitoring of planted forests. Here, we studied 9-year time-series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on a network of 16 stands in fast-growing Eucalyptus plantations in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. We aimed to examine the relationships between NDVI time-series spanning entire rotations and stand structural characteristics (volume, dominant height, mean annual increment) in these simple forest ecosystems. Our second objective was to examine spatial and temporal variations of light use efficiency for wood production, by comparing time-series of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (APAR) with inventory data. Relationships were calibrated between the NDVI and the fractions of intercepted diffuse and direct radiation, using hemispherical photographs taken on the studied stands at two seasons. APAR was calculated from the NDVI time-series using these relationships. Stem volume and dominant height were strongly correlated with summed NDVI values between planting date and inventory date. Stand productivity was correlated with mean NDVI values. APAR during the first 2 years of growth was variable between stands and was well correlated with stem wood production (r(2) = 0.78). In contrast, APAR during the following years was less variable and not significantly correlated with stem biomass increments. Production of wood per unit of absorbed light varied with stand age and with site index. In our study, a better site index was accompanied both by increased APAR during the first 2 years of growth and by higher light use efficiency for stem wood production during the whole rotation. Implications for simple process-based modelling are discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A correct enthalpy relationship as thermal comfort index for livestock

Researchers working with thermal comfort have been using enthalpy to measure thermal energy inside rural facilities, establishing indicator values for many situations of thermal comfort and heat stress. This variable turned out to be helpful in analyzing thermal exchange in livestock systems. The animals are exposed to an environment which is decisive for the thermoregulatory process, and, consequently, the reactions reflect states of thermal comfort or heat stress, the last being responsable for problems of sanity, behavior and productivity. There are researchers using enthalpy as a qualitative indicator of thermal environment of livestock such as poultry, cattle and hogs in tropical regions. This preliminary work intends to check different enthalpy equations using information from classical thermodynamics, and proposes a direct equation as thermal comfort index for livestock systems.

Increased MMA concentration and body mass index are associated with spontaneous abortion in Brazilian women A pilot study

Background: The pathophysiology of spontaneous abortion is complex and may involve the interaction of genetic and environmental factors. We evaluated the predictors of spontaneous abortion in Brazilian pregnant women. The effects of age, gestational age. body mass index (BMI), cigarette smoking, alcohol ingestion, use of multivitamins and concentrations of vitamins (folate, cobalamin and vitamin 136) and vitamin-dependent metabolites were analyzed. Methods: Study population included 100 healthy women that attended pre-natal care in 2 health centers of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and in whom pregnancy outcome was known. Folate and cobalamin status was measured in blood specimens collected between 4 and 16 weeks. The genotypes for 8 gene polymorphisms were evaluated by PCR-RFLP. Results: Eighty-eight women had normal pregnancy outcome (Group 1), while 12 experienced a miscarriage after blood collection (Group 2). Increased methylmalonic acid (MMA) concentrations were found in Group 2 (median [25th-75th percentile]=274 [149-425] nmol/l) relative to Group 1 (138 [98-185]) (P<0.01). No differences between the groups were observed for serum cobalamin, serum or red cell folate, and serum total homocysteine or allele frequencies for 8 polymorphisms. In a conditional logistic regression analysis including age, gestational age, serum creatinine, MMA, cystathionine, body mass index (BMI), cigarette smoking, alcohol ingestion and use of multivitamins the risk of abortion was significantly associated with MMA (OR [95% CI] = 3.80 [1.36, 10.62] per quartile increase in MMA), BMI (OR [95% CI] = 5.49 [1.29,23.39] per quartile) and gestational age (OR [95% CI] = 0.10 [0.01, 0.77] per increase of interval in gestational age). Conclusions: Increased serum MMA and BMI concentrations are associated with spontaneous abortion in Brazilian women. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Molecular modeling and QSAR studies of a set of indole and benzimidazole derivatives as H(4) receptor antagonists

Histamine is an important biogenic amine, which acts with a group of four G-protein coupled receptors (GPCRs), namely H(1) to H(4) (H(1)R - H(4)R) receptors. The actions of histamine at H(4)R are related to immunological and inflammatory processes, particularly in pathophysiology of asthma, and H(4)R ligands having antagonistic properties could be helpful as antiinflammatory agents. In this work, molecular modeling and QSAR studies of a set of 30 compounds, indole and benzimidazole derivatives, as H(4)R antagonists were performed. The QSAR models were built and optimized using a genetic algorithm function and partial least squares regression (WOLF 5.5 program). The best QSAR model constructed with training set (N = 25) presented the following statistical measures: r (2) = 0.76, q (2) = 0.62, LOF = 0.15, and LSE = 0.07, and was validated using the LNO and y-randomization techniques. Four of five compounds of test set were well predicted by the selected QSAR model, which presented an external prediction power of 80%. These findings can be quite useful to aid the designing of new anti-H(4) compounds with improved biological response.

Evaluation of flow regimes in a semi-cylindrical spouted bed through statistical, mutual information, spectral and Hurst`s analysis

Hydrodynamic studies were conducted in a semi-cylindrical spouted bed column of diameter 150 mm, height 1000 mm, conical base included angle of 60 degrees and inlet orifice diameter 25 mm. Pressure transducers at several axial positions were used to obtain pressure fluctuation time series with 1.2 and 2.4 mm glass beads at U/U-ms from 0.3 to 1.6, and static bed depths from 150 to 600 mm. The conditions covered several flow regimes (fixed bed, incipient spouting, stable spouting, pulsating spouting, slugging, bubble spouting and fluidization). Images of the system dynamics were also acquired through the transparent walls with a digital camera. The data were analyzed via statistical, mutual information theory, spectral and Hurst`s Rescaled Range methods to assess the potential of these methods to characterize the spouting quality. The results indicate that these methods have potential for monitoring spouted bed operation.

Parameter setting and statistical learning

Three main models of parameter setting have been proposed: the Variational model proposed by Yang (2002; 2004), the Structured Acquisition model endorsed by Baker (2001; 2005), and the Very Early Parameter Setting (VEPS) model advanced by Wexler (1998). The VEPS model contends that parameters are set early. The Variational model supposes that children employ statistical learning mechanisms to decide among competing parameter values, so this model anticipates delays in parameter setting when critical input is sparse, and gradual setting of parameters. On the Structured Acquisition model, delays occur because parameters form a hierarchy, with higher-level parameters set before lower-level parameters. Assuming that children freely choose the initial value, children sometimes will miss-set parameters. However when that happens, the input is expected to trigger a precipitous rise in one parameter value and a corresponding decline in the other value. We will point to the kind of child language data that is needed in order to adjudicate among these competing models.

Refractive index tomography of turbid media by bifocal optical coherence refractometry

We demonstrate tomographic imaging of the refractive index of turbid media using bifocal optical coherence refractometry (BOCR). The technique, which is a variant of optical coherence tomography, is based on the measurement of the optical pathlength difference between two foci simultaneously present in a medium of interest. We describe a new method to axially shift the bifocal optical pathlength that avoids the need to physically relocate the objective lens or the sample during an axial scan, and present an experimental realization based on an adaptive liquid-crystal lens. We present experimental results, including video clips, which demonstrate refractive index tomography of a range of turbid liquid phantoms, as well as of human skin in vivo.