Ignoring information in binary choice with continuous variables: When is less 'more'?

When can a single variable be more accurate in binary choice than multiple sources of information? We derive analytically the probability that a single variable (SV) will correctly predict one of two choices when both criterion and predictor are continuous variables. We further provide analogous derivations for multiple regression (MR) and equal weighting (EW) and specify the conditions under which the models differ in expected predictive ability. Key factors include variability in cue validities, intercorrelation between predictors, and the ratio of predictors to observations in MR. Theory and simulations are used to illustrate the differential effects of these factors. Results directly address why and when one-reason decision making can be more effective than analyses that use more information. We thus provide analytical backing to intriguing empirical results that, to date, have lacked theoretical justification. There are predictable conditions for which one should expect less to be more.

School Choice and Student Screening in the Chilean Educational System: Who Chooses Whom?. The Case of the Catholic Education

The student´s screening made by schools corresponds to a regulatory mechanism for school inclusion and exclusion that normally overlaps the parental expectations of school choice. Based in "Parents survey 2006" data (n=188.073) generated by the Chilean Educational Ministry, this paper describe the parents reasons for choosing their children's school, and school´s criteria for screening students. It concludes that the catholic schools are the most selective institutions and usually exceed the capacity of parental choice. One of the reasons to select students would be the direct relationship between this practice and increasing the average score on the test of the Chilean Educational Quality Measurement System (SIMCE).

Choice of outcome measures in postprandial trials

Comment on: Heinrich H, Goetze O, Menne D, Iten PX, Fruehauf H, Vavricka SR, Schwizer W, Fried M, Fox M. Effect on gastric function and symptoms of drinking wine, black tea, or schnapps with a Swiss cheese fondue: randomised controlled crossover trial. BMJ. 2010 Dec 14;341:c6731. doi: 10.1136/bmj.c6731. PMID 21156747.

Persuasion, binary choice, and the costs of dishonesty

We study the strategic interaction between a decision maker who needs to take a binary decision but is uncertain about relevant facts and an informed expert who can send a message to the decision maker but has a preference over the decision.We show that the probability that the expert can persuade the decision maker to take the expert's preferred decision is a hump-shaped function of his costs of sending dishonest messages.

Patient adherence and the choice of antihypertensive drugs: focus on lercanidipine.

Despite the development of many effective antihypertensive drugs, target blood pressures are reached in only a minority of patients in clinical practice. Poor adherence to drug therapy and the occurrence of side effects are among the main reasons commonly reported by patients and physicians to explain the poor results of actual antihypertensive therapies. The development of new effective antihypertensive agents with an improved tolerability profile might help to partly overcome these problems. Lercanidipine is an effective dihydropyridine calcium channel blocker of the third generation characterized by a long half-life and its lipophylicity. In contrast to first-generation dihydropyridines, lercanidipine does not induce reflex tachycardia and induces peripheral edema with a lower incidence. Recent data suggest that in addition to lowering blood pressure, lercanidipine might have some renal protective properties. In this review we shall discuss the problems of drug adherence in the management of hypertension with a special emphasis on lercanidipine.

Choice of Initial Combination Antiretroviral Therapy in Individuals With HIV Infection: Determinants and Outcomes.

BACKGROUND Current guidelines give recommendations for preferred combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). We investigated factors influencing the choice of initial cART in clinical practice and its outcome. METHODS We analyzed treatment-naive adults with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection participating in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and starting cART from January 1, 2005, through December 31, 2009. The primary end point was the choice of the initial antiretroviral regimen. Secondary end points were virologic suppression, the increase in CD4 cell counts from baseline, and treatment modification within 12 months after starting treatment. RESULTS A total of 1957 patients were analyzed. Tenofovir-emtricitabine (TDF-FTC)-efavirenz was the most frequently prescribed cART (29.9%), followed by TDF-FTC-lopinavir/r (16.9%), TDF-FTC-atazanavir/r (12.9%), zidovudine-lamivudine (ZDV-3TC)-lopinavir/r (12.8%), and abacavir/lamivudine (ABC-3TC)-efavirenz (5.7%). Differences in prescription were noted among different Swiss HIV Cohort Study sites (P < .001). In multivariate analysis, compared with TDF-FTC-efavirenz, starting TDF-FTC-lopinavir/r was associated with prior AIDS (relative risk ratio, 2.78; 95% CI, 1.78-4.35), HIV-RNA greater than 100 000 copies/mL (1.53; 1.07-2.18), and CD4 greater than 350 cells/μL (1.67; 1.04-2.70); TDF-FTC-atazanavir/r with a depressive disorder (1.77; 1.04-3.01), HIV-RNA greater than 100 000 copies/mL (1.54; 1.05-2.25), and an opiate substitution program (2.76; 1.09-7.00); and ZDV-3TC-lopinavir/r with female sex (3.89; 2.39-6.31) and CD4 cell counts greater than 350 cells/μL (4.50; 2.58-7.86). At 12 months, 1715 patients (87.6%) achieved viral load less than 50 copies/mL and CD4 cell counts increased by a median (interquartile range) of 173 (89-269) cells/μL. Virologic suppression was more likely with TDF-FTC-efavirenz, and CD4 increase was higher with ZDV-3TC-lopinavir/r. No differences in outcome were observed among Swiss HIV Cohort Study sites. CONCLUSIONS Large differences in prescription but not in outcome were observed among study sites. A trend toward individualized cART was noted suggesting that initial cART is significantly influenced by physician's preference and patient characteristics. Our study highlights the need for evidence-based data for determining the best initial regimen for different HIV-infected persons.

Cell therapies for tendons: old cell choice for modern innovation.

Although tissue engineering and cell therapies are becoming realistic approaches for medical therapeutics, it is likely that musculoskeletal applications will be among the first to benefit on a large scale. Cell sources for tissue engineering and cell therapies for tendon pathologies are reviewed with an emphasis on small defect tendon injuries as seen in the hand which could adapt well to injectable cell administration. Specifically, cell sources including tenocytes, tendon sheath fibroblasts, bone marrow or adipose-derived stem cells, amniotic cells, placenta cells and platelet-derivatives have been proposed to enhance tendon regeneration. The associated advantages and disadvantages for these different strategies will be discussed and evolving regulatory requirements for cellular therapies will also be addressed. Human progenitor tenocytes, along with their clinical cell banking potential, will be presented as an alternative cell source solution. Similar cell banking techniques have already been described with other progenitor cell types in the 1950's for vaccine production, and these "old" cell types incite potentially interesting therapeutic options that could be improved with modern innovation for tendon regeneration and repair.

Ectoparasite affects choice and use of roost sites in the great tit, Parus major

Many diurnal bird species roost at night in holes. As a regular visitor of a hole they are therefore a welcome host for several species of ectoparasites. The interactions of ectoparasites with the behaviour, life-history traits and population demography of their hosts are largely unknown. In the present study the effects of the haematophagous hen flea, Ceratophyllus gallinae , on the great tit's choice of winter roost site were investigated experimentally. Three experiments tested (1) whether great tits prefer a clean nestbox to one containing an old, but parasite-free nest, (2) whether they prefer a parasite-free nestbox to one infested with the haematophagous hen flea, and (3) whether they prefer not to use a nestbox when there is only an infested box available in their territory. In the first experiment there was no discrimination and both kinds of boxes were used equally often. In the second experiment the great tits clearly preferred to roost in the box without ectoparasites. In the third experiment a significantly higher proportion of the infested nestboxes were not used for roosting compared with the parasite-free boxes. Recently the validity of the conclusions drawn from nestbox studies where the naturally occurring detrimental ectoparasites are eliminated by the routine removal of old nests between breeding seasons has been questioned. This study shows that ectoparasites affect host behaviour and therefore lends support to that criticism.

Modelling non-industrial private forest landowners' strategic decision making by using logistic regression and neural networks: case of predicting the choice of forest taxation basis

Summary