Using fractal downscaling of satellite precipitation products for hydrometeorological applications

The objective of spatial downscaling strategies is to increase the information content of coarse datasets at smaller scales. In the case of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) for hydrological applications, the goal is to close the scale gap between the spatial resolution of coarse datasets (e.g., gridded satellite precipitation products at resolution L × L) and the high resolution (l × l; L»l) necessary to capture the spatial features that determine spatial variability of water flows and water stores in the landscape. In essence, the downscaling process consists of weaving subgrid-scale heterogeneity over a desired range of wavelengths in the original field. The defining question is, which properties, statistical and otherwise, of the target field (the known observable at the desired spatial resolution) should be matched, with the caveat that downscaling methods be as a general as possible and therefore ideally without case-specific constraints and/or calibration requirements? Here, the attention is focused on two simple fractal downscaling methods using iterated functions systems (IFS) and fractal Brownian surfaces (FBS) that meet this requirement. The two methods were applied to disaggregate spatially 27 summertime convective storms in the central United States during 2007 at three consecutive times (1800, 2100, and 0000 UTC, thus 81 fields overall) from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) version 6 (V6) 3B42 precipitation product (~25-km grid spacing) to the same resolution as the NCEP stage IV products (~4-km grid spacing). Results from bilinear interpolation are used as the control. A fundamental distinction between IFS and FBS is that the latter implies a distribution of downscaled fields and thus an ensemble solution, whereas the former provides a single solution. The downscaling effectiveness is assessed using fractal measures (the spectral exponent β, fractal dimension D, Hurst coefficient H, and roughness amplitude R) and traditional operational scores statistics scores [false alarm rate (FR), probability of detection (PD), threat score (TS), and Heidke skill score (HSS)], as well as bias and the root-mean-square error (RMSE). The results show that both IFS and FBS fractal interpolation perform well with regard to operational skill scores, and they meet the additional requirement of generating structurally consistent fields. Furthermore, confidence intervals can be directly generated from the FBS ensemble. The results were used to diagnose errors relevant for hydrometeorological applications, in particular a spatial displacement with characteristic length of at least 50 km (2500 km2) in the location of peak rainfall intensities for the cases studied. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.

A method of assessing air toxics concentrations in urban areas using mobile platform measurements.

The objective of this paper is to demonstrate an approach to characterize the spatial variability in ambient air concentrations using mobile platform measurements. This approach may be useful for air toxics assessments in Environmental Justice applications, epidemiological studies, and environmental health risk assessments. In this study, we developed and applied a method to characterize air toxics concentrations in urban areas using results of the recently conducted field study in Wilmington, DE. Mobile measurements were collected over a 4- x 4-km area of downtown Wilmington for three components: formaldehyde (representative of volatile organic compounds and also photochemically reactive pollutants), aerosol size distribution (representing fine particulate matter), and water-soluble hexavalent chromium (representative of toxic metals). These measurements were,used to construct spatial and temporal distributions of air toxics in the area that show a very strong temporal variability, both diurnally and seasonally. An analysis of spatial variability indicates that all pollutants varied significantly by location, which suggests potential impact of local sources. From the comparison with measurements at the central monitoring site, we conclude that formaldehyde and fine particulates show a positive correlation with temperature, which could also be the reason that photochemically generated formaldehyde and fine particulates over the study area correlate well with the fine particulate matter measured at the central site.

Pittsburgh air quality study overview

Ambient sampling for the Pittsburgh Air Quality Study (PAQS) was conducted from July 2001 to September 2002. The study was designed (1) to characterize particulate matter (PM) by examination of size, surface area, and volume distribution, chemical composition as a function of size and on a single particle basis, morphology, and temporal and spatial variability in the Pittsburgh region; (2) to quantify the impact of the various sources (transportation, power plants, biogenic sources, etc.) on the aerosol concentrations in the area; and (3) to develop and evaluate the next generation of atmospheric aerosol monitoring and modeling techniques. The PAQS objectives, study design, site descriptions and routine and intensive measurements are presented. Special study days are highlighted, including those associated with elevated concentrations of daily average PM2.5 mass. Monthly average and diurnal patterns in aerosol number concentration, and aerosol nitrate, sulfate, elemental carbon, and organic carbon concentrations, light scattering as well as gas-phase ozone, nitrogen oxides, and carbon monoxide are discussed with emphasis on the processes affecting them. Preliminary findings reveal day-to-day variability in aerosol mass and composition, but consistencies in seasonal average diurnal profiles and concentrations. For example, the seasonal average variations in the diurnal PM2.5 mass were predominately driven by the sulfate component. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variabilidad espacial de fosfóro en suelo y planta en un argiudol típico bajo cultivo de maíz

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Regional climate change and harmful algal blooms in the northeast Atlantic

We investigated long-term spatial variability in a number of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder. Over the last four decades, some dinoflagellate taxa showed pronounced variation in the south and east of the North Sea, with the most significant increases being restricted to the adjacent waters off Norway. There was also a general decrease along the eastern coast of the United Kingdom. The most prominent feature in the interannual bloom frequencies over the last four decades was the anomalously high values recorded in the late 1980s in the northern and central North Sea areas. The only mesoscale area in the northeast Atlantic to show a significant increase in bloom formation over the last decade was the Norwegian coastal region. The changing spatial patterns of HAB taxa and the frequency of bloom formation are discussed in relation to regional climate change, in particular, changes in temperature, salinity, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Areas highly vulnerable to the effects of regional climate change on HABs are Norwegian coastal waters and the Skagerrak. Other vulnerable areas include Danish coastal waters, and to a lesser extent, the German and Dutch Bight and the northern Irish Sea. Quite apart from eutrophication, our results give a preview of what might happen to certain HAB genera under changing climatic conditions in temperate environments and their responses to variability of climate oscillations such as the NAO.

Use of satellite data for modelling food availability and survival of marine fish larvae

A modelling scheme is described which uses satellite retrieved sea-surface temperature and chlorophyll-a to derive monthly zooplankton biomass estimates in the eastern North Atlantic; this forms part of a bio-physical model of inter-annual variations in the growth and survival of larvae and post-larvae of mackerel (Scomber scombrus). The temperature and chlorophyll data are incorporated first to model copepod (Calanus) egg production rates. Egg production is then converted to available food using distribution data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey, observed population biomass per unit daily egg production and the proportion of the larval mackerel diet comprising Calanus. Results are validated in comparison with field observations of zooplankton biomass. The principal benefit of the modelling scheme is the ability to use the combination of broad scale coverage and fine scale temporal and spatial variability of satellite data as driving forces in the model; weaknesses are the simplicity of the egg production model and the broad-scale generalizations assumed in the raising factors to convert egg production to biomass.

Simulation of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) recruitment with an individual-based model and comparison with field data

An individual-based model (IBM) for the simulation of year-to-year survival during the early life-history stages of the north-east Atlantic stock of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) was developed within the EU funded Shelf-Edge Advection, Mortality and Recruitment (SEAMAR) programme. The IBM included transport, growth and survival and was used to track the passive movement of mackerel eggs, larvae and post-larvae and determine their distribution and abundance after approximately 2 months of drift. One of the main outputs from the IBM, namely distributions and numbers of surviving post-larvae, are compared with field data as recruit (age-0/age-1 juveniles) distribution and abundance for the years 1998, 1999 and 2000. The juvenile distributions show more inter-annual and spatial variability than the modelled distributions of survivors; this may be due to the restriction of using the same initial egg distribution for all 3 yr of simulation. The IBM simulations indicate two main recruitment areas for the north-east Atlantic stock of mackerel, these being Porcupine Bank and the south-eastern Bay of Biscay. These areas correspond to areas of high juvenile catches, although the juveniles generally have a more widespread distribution than the model simulations. The best agreement between modelled data and field data for distribution (juveniles and model survivors) is for the year 1998. The juvenile catches in different representative nursery areas are totalled to give a field abundance index (FAI). This index is compared with a model survivor index (MSI) which is calculated from the total of survivors for the whole spawning season. The MSI compares favourably with the FAI for 1998 and 1999 but not for 2000; in this year, juvenile catches dropped sharply compared with the previous years but there was no equivalent drop in modelled survivors.

Biodiversity of North Atlantic and North Sea calanoid copepods

Spatial patterns in pelagic biodiversity are the result of factors acting from a global to a local scale. The global patterns have been studied intensively using taxa such as foraminifera and euphausiids. However, these studies do not allow direct comparisons of neritic and oceanic regions or examination of relationships between local and regional patterns of pelagic diversity. Here we present a map of the diversity of calanoid copepods, a key planktonic group, summarising 40 yr of continuous monthly investigations in the North Atlantic and North Sea. The high number of samples (168 162) allowed mesoscale patterns in diversity to be detected for the first time at an ocean-basin level. Our results demonstrate pronounced local spatial variability in planktonic diversity and refine previous global studies at a lower resolution. They form a baseline at which long-term changes in planktonic diversity can be better assessed and ecosystem management plans implemented.

Measurement Of The Responses Of Individuals To Environmental-Stress And Pollution - Studies With Bivalve Mollusks

Certain physiological differences between individuals in different populations of the mussel, Mytilus edulis, are described. In particular, the scope for growth differs in space and time and may be used to assess the animals' physiological condition. When the required measurements are made in the field, the rates of growth predicted from the physiological data agree well with observed rates of growth. An alternative approach utilizes mussels transplanted to various waters, with indices of condition then measured in the laboratory under standard conditions; an example of this approach is illustrated. Laboratory experiments are used to equate various levels of physiological condition with fecundity, in an attempt to equate physiological effects on the individual with likely population damage. A cytochemical index of stress is described, based on the latency of lysosomal enzymes; spatial variability in this index, and its relation with the scope for growth, are discussed. Finally, the results of some experiments on the effects of petroleum hydrocarbons on mussels are described and the presence of inducible activity of NADPH-dependent tetrazolium reductase in the blood cells is demonstrated. Certain considerations that apply in adopting similar measurements of biological effects of pollution in environmental monitoring programmes are discussed.

Dynamics of phytoplankton communities during late summer around the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula

The composition and distribution of phytoplankton assemblages around the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula were studied during two summer cruises (February/March 2008 and 2009). Water samples were collected for HPLC/CHEMTAX pigment and microscopic analysis. A great spatial variability in chlorophyll a (Chl a) was observed in the study area: highest levels in the vicinity of the James Ross Island (exceeding 7 mg m−3 in 2009), intermediate values (0.5 to 2 mg m−3) in the Bransfield Strait, and low concentrations in the Weddell Sea and Drake Passage (below 0.5 mg m−3). Phytoplankton assemblages were generally dominated by diatoms, especially at coastal stations with high Chl a concentration, where diatom contribution was above 90% of total Chl a. Nanoflagellates, such as cryptophytes and/or Phaeocystis antarctica, replaced diatoms in open-ocean areas (e.g., Weddell Sea). Many species of peridinin-lacking autotrophic dinoflagellates (e.g., Gymnodinium spp.) were also important to total Chl a biomass at well-stratified stations of Bransfield Strait. Generally, water column structure was the most important environmental factor determining phytoplankton communities’ biomass and distribution. The HPLC pigment data also allowed the assessment of different physiological responses of phytoplankton to ambient light variation. The present study provides new insights about the dynamics of phytoplankton in an undersampled region of the Southern Ocean highly susceptible to global climate change.

Decadal fluctuations in North Atlantic water inflow in the North Sea between 1958-2003: impacts on temperature and phytoplankton populations

The circulation of Atlantic water along the European continental slope, in particular the inflow into the North Sea, influences North Sea water characteristics with consequent changes in the environment affecting plankton community dynamics. The long-term effect of fluctuating oceanographic conditions oil the North Sea, pelagic ecosystem is assessed. It is shown that (i) there are similar regime shifts in the inflow through the northern North Sea and in Sea, Surface Temperature, (ii) long-term phytoplankton trends are influenced by the inflow only in some North Sea regions, and (iii) the spatial variability in chemicophysical and biological parameters highlight the influence of smaller scale processes.

Non-linearities, regime shifts and recovery: The recent influence of climate on Black Sea chlorophyll

The Black Sea ecosystem experienced severe eutrophication-related degradation during the 1970s and 1980s. However, in recent years the Black Sea has shown some signs of recovery which are often attributed to a reduction in nutrient loading. Here, SeaWiFS chlorophyll a (chl a), a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, is used to investigate spatio-temporal patterns in Black Sea phytoplankton dynamics and to explore the potential role of climate in the Black Sea's recovery. Maps of chl a anomalies, calculated relative to the 8 year mean, emphasize spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton biomass in the Black Sea, particularly between the riverine-influenced Northwest Shelf and the open Black Sea. Evolution of phytoplankton biomass has shown significant spatial variability of persistence of optimal bloom conditions between three major regions of the Black Sea. With the exception of 2001, chl a has generally decreased during our 8 year time-series. However, the winter of 2000–2001 was anomalously warm with low wind stress, resulting in reduced vertical mixing of the water column and retention of nutrients in the photic zone. These conditions were associated with anomalously high levels of chl a throughout much of the open Black Sea during the following spring and summer. The unusual climatic conditions occurring in 2001 may have triggered a shift in the Black Sea's chl a regime. The long-term significance of this recent shift is still uncertain but illustrates a non-linear response to climate forcing that makes future ecosystem changes in the pelagic Black Sea ecosystem difficult to predict.

Modelling large-scale CO2 leakages in the North Sea

A three dimensional hydrodynamic model with a coupled carbonate speciation sub-model is used to simulate large additions of CO2into the North Sea, representing leakages at potential carbon sequestration sites. A range of leakage scenarios are conducted at two distinct release sites, allowing an analysis of the seasonal, inter-annual and spatial variability of impacts to the marine ecosystem. Seasonally stratified regions are shown to be more vulnerable to CO2release during the summer as the added CO2remains trapped beneath the thermocline, preventing outgasing to the atmosphere. On average, CO2 injected into the northern North Sea is shown to reside within the water column twice as long as an equivalent addition in the southern North Sea before reaching the atmosphere. Short-term leakages of 5000 tonnes CO2over a single day result in substantial acidification at the release sites (up to -1.92 pH units), with significant perturbations (greater than 0.1 pH units) generally confined to a 10 km radius. Long-term CO2leakages sustained for a year may result in extensive plumes of acidified seawater, carried by major advective pathways. Whilst such scenarios could be harmful to marine biota over confined spatial scales, continued unmitigated CO2emissions from fossil fuels are predicted to result in greater and more long-lived perturbations to the carbonate system over the next few decades.

Uncertainty estimates of remote sensing reflectance derived from comparison of ocean color satellite data sets

Assigning uncertainty to ocean-color satellite products is a requirement to allow informed use of these data. Here, uncertainty estimates are derived using the comparison on a 12th-degree grid of coincident daily records of the remote-sensing reflectance RRS obtained with the same processing chain from three satellite missions, MERIS, MODIS and SeaWiFS. The approach is spatially resolved and produces σ, the part of the RRS uncertainty budget associated with random effects. The global average of σ decreases with wavelength from approximately 0.7– 0.9 10−3 sr−1 at 412 nm to 0.05–0.1 10−3 sr−1 at the red band, with uncertainties on σ evaluated as 20–30% between 412 and 555 nm, and 30–40% at 670 nm. The distribution of σ shows a restricted spatial variability and small variations with season, which makes the multi-annual global distribution of σ an estimate applicable to all retrievals of the considered missions. The comparison of σ with other uncertainty estimates derived from field data or with the support of algorithms provides a consistent picture. When translated in relative terms, and assuming a relatively low bias, the distribution of σ suggests that the objective of a 5% uncertainty is fulfilled between 412 and 490 nm for oligotrophic waters (chlorophyll-a concentration below 0.1 mg m−3). This study also provides comparison statistics. Spectrally, the mean absolute relative difference between RRS from different missions shows a characteristic U-shape with both ends at blue and red wavelengths inversely related to the amplitude of RRS. On average and for the considered data sets, SeaWiFS RRS tend to be slightly higher than MODIS RRS, which in turn appear higher than MERIS RRS. Biases between mission-specific RRS may exhibit a seasonal dependence, particularly in the subtropical belt.

Bioaccessibility of trace elements in soils in Northern Ireland

Assessment of elevated concentrations of potentially toxic elements (PTE) in soils and the association with specific soil parent material have been the focus of research for a number of years. Risk-based assessment of potential exposure scenarios to identified elevated PTE concentrations has led to the derivation of site- and contaminant-specific soil guideline values (SGVs), which represent generic assessment criteria (GACs) to identify exceeded levels that may reflect an unacceptable risk to human health. A better understanding of the ‘bioavailable’ or ‘bioaccessible’ contaminant concentrations offers an opportunity to better refine contaminant exposure assessments. Utilizing a comprehensive soil geochemical dataset for Northern Ireland provided by the Tellus Survey (GSNI) in conjunction with supplementary bioaccessibility testing of selected soil samples following the Unified BARGE Method, this paper uses exploratory data analysis and geostatistical analysis to investigate the spatial variability of pseudo-total and bioaccessible concentrations of As, Cd, Co, Cr. Cu, Ni, Pb, U, V and Zn. The paper investigates variations in individual element concentrations as well as cross-element correlations and observed lithological/pedological associations. The analysis of PTE concentrations highlighted exceeded levels of GAC values for V and Cr and exceeded SGV/GAC values for Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn. UBM testing showed that for some soil parent materials associated with elevated PTE concentrations e.g. the Antrim Lava Group with high Ni concentrations, the measured oral bioaccessible fraction was relatively low. For other soil parent materials with relatively moderate PTE concentrations, measured oral bioaccessible fraction was relatively high (e.g. the Gala Sandstone Group of the Southern Uplands-Down Longford Terrain). These findings have implications for regional human health risk assessments for specific PTEs.