Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

How logrolling can explain the failure of the government coalition in Brazil

This article presents an analysis of the behavior of federal representatives in the Brazilian House of Representatives between 1995 and 1998, when a series of constitutional amendments were presented by the president to be voted on by Congress. The objective is to show that the lack of a stable government coalition resulted in costs to society that were not anticipated by the government. The study argues that a logroll - a trade of votes - was the strategy used by the government in order to guarantee the number of votes necessary to approve the amendments. This strategy created a vicious system in which representatives would only vote with the government if they had benefits in return.

Health related quality of life in patients with refractory chronic heart failure undergoing cardiac resynchronization: type of therapeutic response

The benefits of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in the health-related quality of life (HRQL) are largely demonstrated in selected patients with severe congestive heart failure (CHF). However, the differences between responders and non-responders, with regard to the effect of CRT in the various dimensions that constitute HRQL are still a matter of discussion. Objective: To evaluate the impact of CRT on the HRQL of patients with CHF refractory to optimal pharmacological therapy, within 6 months after CRT. Methods: 43 patients, submitted to successful implantation of CRT, were evaluated in hospital just before intervention and in the outpatient clinic within 6 months after CRT. HRQL was analyzed based on the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ). Patients were classified as super-responders (ejection fraction of left ventricle - LVEF - ≥45% post-CRT), n=15, responders (sustained improvement in functional class and LVEF increased by 15%), n=19, and non-responders (no clinical or LVEF improvement), n=9. Results: In the group of super-responders, CRT was associated with an improvement in HRQL for the various fields and sums assessed (ρ<0.05); in responders, CRT has been associated with an improvement of HRQL in the various fields and sums, except in the self-efficacy dimension (ρ<0.05); in non-responders, CRT was not associated with improvement of HRQL. Conclusion: In a population with severe CHF undergoing CRT, the patients with clinical and echocardiographic positive response, obtained a favorable impact in all dimensions of HRQL, while the group without response to CRT showed no improvement. These data reinforces the importance of HRQL as a multidimensional tool for assessment of benefits in clinical practice.

Evaluating the quality of life in patients with refractory chronic heart failure undergoing cardiac resynchronization regarding the type of therapeutic response

The benefits of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in the quality of life have been largely demonstrated in selected patients with severe congestive heart failure (CHF). However, the differences between responders and non-responders, with regard to the effect of CRT in the various dimensions of quality of life is still a matter of discussion. Objective: to evaluate the impact of CRT on the quality of life of patients with CHF refractory to optimal pharmacological therapy, within 6 months after CRT.

Relation of happiness, hope and affection with quality of life in patients with heart failure

Introduction: Meeting the actual role of positive psychology, begins to be recognized the relation of positive variables with health. Objective: To know the relation of happiness, hope and affection with quality of life in individuals with heart failure. Population and Methodology: 128 individuals with heart failure, 98 men and 30 women, 61.9±12,1 years of age, 6,6±3,9 years in school and 74,2% retired because of this disease. 56,3% were in Class III of New York Heart Association, with poor left ventricular ejection fraction (25,3±6,2%). The clinical history was of 9,4±8,5 years for this heart disease and had at least one hospitalization due to heart failure with 51,6% having ischemic heart disease.

Happiness, hope and affection as predictors of quality of life and functionality of individuals with heart failure at 3 month follow up

Introduction: Meeting the actual role of positive psychology, begins to be recognized the contribution of positive variables in health outcomes. Objective: To know the contribution of happiness, hope and affection individually and as a whole in the quality of life and functionality of individuals with heart failure. Population and Methodology: 128 individuals with heart failure, 98 men and 30 women, 61.9±12,1 years of age, 6,6±3,9 years of school and 74,2% retired because of this disease. 56,3% were in Class III of New York Heart Association, with poor left ventricular ejection fraction (25,3±6,2%). The clinical history was of 9,4±8,5 years for this heart disease and had at least one hospitalization due to heart failure with 51,6% having ischemic heart disease.

Quality of life in dilated cardiomyopathy with refractory chronic heart failure undergoing devices implantation

Heart failure is the final stage of most of cardiac diseases. It is a complex syndrome in which the patients should have the following features: symptoms of heart failure, typically shortness of breath at rest or during exertion, and/or fatigue; signs of fluid retention such as pulmonary congestion or ankle swelling; and objective evidence of an abnormality of the structure or function of the heart at rest. This progressive syndrome as a high incidence and prevalence and poor prognosis: four-year mortality is around 50% with 40% of the patients admitted to hospital dying or readmitted within a year. With ageing, many patients will develop chronic heart failure, which, because of its symptoms, patient’s awareness of their risk of dying, and the effects of therapy, together with frequent hospitalizations, has considerable impact on patient’s health-related quality of life.

A model to forecast financial failure, in non financial galician SMES

We are concerned with providing more empirical evidence on forecast failure, developing forecast models, and examining the impact of events such as audit reports. A joint consideration of classic financial ratios and relevant external indicators leads us to build a basic prediction model focused in non-financial Galician SMEs. Explanatory variables are relevant financial indicators from the viewpoint of the financial logic and financial failure theory. The paper explores three mathematical models: discriminant analysis, Logit, and linear multivariate regression. We conclude that, even though they both offer high explanatory and predictive abilities, Logit and MDA models should be used and interpreted jointly.

Dynamic power- and failure-aware cloud resources allocation for Sets of independent tasks

Cloud computing is increasingly being adopted in different scenarios, like social networking, business applications, scientific experiments, etc. Relying in virtualization technology, the construction of these computing environments targets improvements in the infrastructure, such as power-efficiency and fulfillment of users’ SLA specifications. The methodology usually applied is packing all the virtual machines on the proper physical servers. However, failure occurrences in these networked computing systems can induce substantial negative impact on system performance, deviating the system from ours initial objectives. In this work, we propose adapted algorithms to dynamically map virtual machines to physical hosts, in order to improve cloud infrastructure power-efficiency, with low impact on users’ required performance. Our decision making algorithms leverage proactive fault-tolerance techniques to deal with systems failures, allied with virtual machine technology to share nodes resources in an accurately and controlled manner. The results indicate that our algorithms perform better targeting power-efficiency and SLA fulfillment, in face of cloud infrastructure failures.

Seasonal variation in hospitalizations due to heart failure in Niterói city, Southeastern Brazil

The objective of the study was to describe seasonality of hospitalizations for heart failure in tropical climate as it has been described in cold climates. Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving-Average model was applied to time-series data of heart failure hospitalizations between 1996 and 2004 in Niteroi (Southeastern Brazil), collected from the Brazilian National Health Service Database. The standard seasonal variation was obtained by means of moving-average filtering and averaging data. The lowest and the highest annual hospital admissions were 507 (1997) and 849 (2002), respectively; the lowest and the highest monthly rates were 419 (December) and 681 (October), respectively. Peak admission rates were seen during the fall and winter. Although weak, the seasonality observed indicates that slight variations result in increased hospitalizations for heart failure.

Happiness, hope, and affection as predictors of quality of life and functionality of individuals with heart failure at three-month follow-up

The scientific evidence supporting the management of the chronically ill in a positive psychological perspective in opposition to traditional pathological approach is scarce. This study examines issues associated with recovery of health status in heart failure, in particular hope, affection, and happiness. We use a longitudinal study of 128 symptomatic patients who after medical intervention reported improved quality of life and function at 3-month follow-up. We evaluated the contribution of happiness, hope and affection, individually and as a whole, in the quality of life and functionality of individuals with heart failure. Happiness (Subjective Happiness Scale), Hope (HOPE Scale), and affection (PANAS (positive and negative affect schedule)) were determined before medical intervention. Individually, we found that happiness is correlated with the quality of life and functionality, hope to self-efficacy dimension of the quality of life scale, positive affect to functionality and negative affect with symptoms dimension, quality of life dimension, and overall sum of the quality of life scale. Overall, we found that happiness has a unique contribution to the quality of life, except in self-efficacy dimension where hope takes this contribution and positive affect has a unique contribution to the functionality in this short-term follow-up. The results highlight the importance of positive variables to health outcomes for people with heart failure and should be considered in intervention programs for this syndrome.

Modelling and aerodynamic simulation of a vehicle and failure analysis of a laminated front fender

Master Thesis in Mechanical Engineering field of Maintenance and Production

Exporting "failure": why research from rich countries may not benefit the developing world

The '10/90 gap' was first highlighted by the Global Forum for Health Research. It refers to the finding that 90% of worldwide medical research expenditure is targeted at problems affecting only 10% of the world's population. Applying research results from the rich world to the problems of the poor may be a tempting, potentially easy and convenient solution for this gap. This paper had the objective of presenting arguments that such an approach runs the risk of exporting failure. Health interventions that are shown to be effective in the specific context of a Western industrialized setting will not necessarily work in the developing world.

The predominance of M2-polarized macrophages in the stroma of low-hypoxic bladder tumors is associated with BCG immunotherapy failure

OBJECTIVE: Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) immunotherapy is the gold standard treatment for superficial bladder tumors with intermediate/high risk of recurrence or progression. However, approximately 30% of patients fail to respond to the treatment. Effective BCG therapy needs precise activation of the type 1 helper cells immune pathway. Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) often assume an immunoregulatory M2 phenotype and may directly interfere with the BCG-induced antitumor immune response. Thus, we aim to clarify the influence of TAMs, in particular of the M2 phenotype in stroma and tumor areas, in BCG treatment outcome. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study included 99 patients with bladder cancer treated with BCG. Tumors resected before treatment were evaluated using immunohistochemistry for CD68 and CD163 antigens, which identify a lineage macrophage marker and a M2-polarized specific cell surface receptor, respectively. CD68+ and CD163+ macrophages were evaluated within the stroma and tumor areas, and high density of infiltrating cells spots were selected for counting. Hypoxia, an event known to modulate macrophage phenotype, was also assessed through hypoxia induced factor (HIF)-1α expression. RESULTS: Patients in whom BCG failed had high stroma-predominant CD163+ macrophage counts (high stroma but low tumor CD163+ macrophages counts) when compared with the ones with a successful treatment (71% vs. 47%, P = 0.017). Furthermore, patients presenting this phenotype showed decreased recurrence-free survival (log rank, P = 0.008) and a clear 2-fold increased risk of BCG treatment failure was observed in univariate analysis (hazard ratio = 2.343; 95% CI: 1.197-4.587; P = 0.013). Even when adjusted for potential confounders, such as age and therapeutic scheme, multivariate analysis revealed 2.6-fold increased risk of recurrence (hazard ratio = 2.627; 95% CI: 1.340-5.150; P = 0.005). High stroma-predominant CD163+ macrophage counts were also associated with low expression of HIF-1α in tumor areas, whereas high counts of CD163+ in the tumor presented high expression of HIF-1α in tumor nests. CONCLUSIONS: TAMs evaluation using CD163 is a good indicator of BCG treatment failure. Moreover, elevated infiltration of CD163+ macrophages, predominantly in stroma areas but not in the tumor, may be a useful indicator of BCG treatment outcome, possibly owing to its immunosuppressive phenotype.

Failure on clinical image quality criteria in digital mammography: how can radiographers do better?

Purpose: To assess image quality using PGMI (perfect, good, moderate, inadequate) scale in digital mammography examinations acquired in DR systems. Identify the main failures and propose corrective actions. Evaluate the most typical breast density. Methods and Materials: Clinical image quality criteria were evaluated considering mammograms acquired in 13 DR systems and classified according to PGMI scale using the criteria described in European Commission guidelines for radiographers. The breast density was assessed according to ACR recommendations. The data were collected on the acquisition system monitor to reproduce the daily practice of the radiographer. Results: The image quality criteria were evaluated in 3044 images. The criteria were fully achieved in 41% of the images that were classified as P (perfect), 31 % of the images were classified as M (moderate), 20% G (good) and 9% I (inadequate). The main cause of inadequate image quality was absence of all breast tissue in the image, skin folders in the pectoral muscle and in the infra-mammary angle. The higher number of failures occurred in MLO projections (809 out of 1022). The most represented (36%) breast type was type 2 (25-50% glandular tissue). Conclusion: Incorrect radiographic technique was frequently detected suggesting potential training needs and poor communication between the team members (radiographer and radiologists). Further correlations are necessary to identify the main causes for the failures, namely specific education and training in digital mammography and workload.