Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Molecular rates parallel diversification contrasts between carnivorous plant sister lineages

In the carnivorous plant family Lentibulariaceae, the bladderwort lineage (Utricularia and Genlisea) is substantially more species-rich and morphologically divergent than its sister lineage, the butterworts (Pinguicula). Bladderworts have a relaxed body plan that has permitted the evolution of terrestrial, epiphytic, and aquatic forms that capture prey in intricately designed suction bladders or corkscrew-shaped lobster-pot traps. In contrast, the flypaper-trapping butterworts maintain vegetative structures typical of angiosperms. We found that bladderwort genomes evolve significantly faster across seven loci (the trnL intron, the second trnL exon, the trnL-F intergenic spacer, the rps16 intron, rbcL, coxI, and 5.8S rDNA) representing all three genomic compartments. Generation time differences did not show a significant association. We relate these findings to the contested speciation rate hypothesis, which postulates a relationship between increased nucleotide substitution and increased cladogenesis. (C) 2002 The Willi Hennig Society.

Control of chaotic motion in a dual-spin spacecraft with nutational damping

Control of chaotic vibrations in a dual-spin spacecraft with an axial nutational damper is achieved using two techniques. The control methods are implemented on two realistic spacecraft parameter configurations that have been found to exhibit chaotic instability when a sinusoidally varying torque is applied to the spacecraft for a range of forcing amplitudes and frequencies. Such a torque, in practice, may arise under malfunction of the control system or from an unbalanced rotor. Chaotic instabilities arising from these torques could introduce uncertainties and irregularities into a spacecraft's attitude motion and, consequently, could have disastrous effects on its operation. The two control methods, recursive proportional feedback and continuous delayed feedback, are recently developed techniques for control of chaotic motion in dynamic systems. Each technique is outlined and the effectiveness on this model compared and contrasted. Numerical simulations are performed, and the results are studied by means of time history, phase space, Poincare map, Lyapunov characteristic exponents, and bifurcation diagrams.

Control of chaotic instability in a dual-spin spacecraft with dissipation using energy methods

Control of chaotic instability in a rotating multibody system in the form of a dual-spin spacecraft with an axial nutational damper is achieved using an algorithm derived using energy methods. The control method is implemented on two realistic spacecraft parameter configurations which have been found to exhibit chaotic instability when a sinusoidally varying torque is applied to the spacecraft for a range of forcing amplitudes and frequencies. Such a torque, in practice, may arise under malfunction of the control system or from an unbalanced rotor. Chaotic instabilities arising from these torques could introduce uncertainties and irregularities into a spacecraft's attitude and consequently impair pointing accuracy. The control method is formulated from nutational stability results derived using an energy sink approximation for a dual-spin spacecraft with an asymmetric platform and axisymmetric rotor. The effectiveness of the control method is shown numerically and the results are studied by means of time history, phase space, Poincare map, Lyapunov characteristic exponents and Bifurcation diagrams.

Control of chaotic instabilities in a spinning spacecraft with dissipation using Lyapunov's method

Control of chaotic instability in a simplified model of a spinning spacecraft with dissipation is achieved using an algorithm derived using Lyapunov's second method. The control method is implemented on a realistic spacecraft parameter configuration which has been found to exhibit chaotic instability for a range of forcing amplitudes and frequencies when a sinusoidally varying torque is applied to the spacecraft. Such a torque, may arise in practice from an unbalanced rotor or from vibrations in appendages. Numerical simulations are performed and the results are studied by means of time history, phase space, Poincare map, Lyapunov characteristic exponents and bifurcation diagrams. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lazer, cidadania e desigualdade : um estudo sobre Vitória-ES

O presente trabalho aborda, sob uma perspectiva analítica e crítica da Geografia, a temática relacionada ao lazer na cidade contemporânea, tendo como problemática a implantação desigual dos equipamentos públicos de lazer na cidade de Vitória-ES. A discussão do tema está associada ao lazer como um direito constitucional do cidadão, revelando de que maneira o Poder Público corrobora para a espacialização desigual dos equipamentos de lazer na cidade estudada. A discussão surgiu em torno da constatação de que Vitória-ES é uma cidade geograficamente dividida pelo Maciço Central, o que gera espaços diferenciados, como a orla Nordeste, rica e equipada dos mais diversos equipamentos de lazer e a orla Noroeste, voltada para a baía de Vitória e para o manguezal, marcada por grandes disparidades humanas, econômicas e sociais. Observou-se que, durante muitas décadas, o Poder Público esteve ausente na promoção de equipamentos públicos de lazer na orla Noroeste de Vitória, o que gerou ambientes diferenciados na cidade. Enquanto isso, a orla Nordeste passou por um intenso processo de promoção de equipamentos públicos, dos mais requintados, promotores de um valorização do solo local e da melhoria da qualidade de vida para a população ali residente. Desse modo, a dissertação pretendeu investigar as políticas públicas que estiveram atreladas à promoção de equipamentos públicos de lazer em quatro bairros específicos: Grande Vitória, Nova Palestina, Maria Ortiz e Resistência, todos localizados na orla Noroeste de Vitória. A escolha pelos bairros se deu através da detecção de que dois deles (Maria Ortiz e Nova Palestina) receberam a implantação de equipamentos públicos de lazer, tendo suas orlas reurbanizadas e o outros dois (Grande Vitória e Resistência), até a presente data, aguardam pela chegada de infraestrutura urbana de todos os tipos, inclusive de lazer.

Modeling the Diffusion of Energy Performance Contracting

The Portuguese Energy Policy considers the development of a commercially viable and competitive market for energy performance contracting (EPC) as a main mechanism to achieve the objectives of energy efficiency improvement. This paper proposes a study to investigate how to achieve widespread adoption of energy performance contracting by means of system dynamics modelling and simulation. To explore and gather insights on this question, a system dynamics model representing the system of the Portuguese EPC market at industry level will be created. The simulation of that model will provide a helpful basis for analysing and explaining the development of key variables, and accelerating learning on the managerial, organizational and political adaptation processes that foster the diffusion of EPC adoption. The first phase of this research project aims at identifying and analysing the key factors and critical cause-effect relations that drive the adoption of EPC. With this purpose, a qualitative content analysis on relevant documents was performed and a set of interviews was conducted. That data was analysed to capture the critical variables and its interrelation to formulate a preliminary representation of the system structure as stock and flow diagrams.

Diversidade ética e exclusão social no processo da consolidação da unidade nacional : o caso dos vendedores e vendedoras informais do Mercado de Estrela Vermelha : cidade de Maputo

O presente trabalho, estuda as relações sociais e interculturais dos vendedores informais do mercado de Estrela Vermelha- cidade de Maputo. Analisa os fatores que afetam a unidade nacional, entendida como o sentido de pertença a uma identidade e a um destino comuns. Há duas teses que explicam a crise da unidade nacional. A primeira argumenta que o que coloca em causa a unidade nacional é a pretensão de se querer construir uma nação cívica, excluindo e até mesmo hostilizando as identidades étnicas vistas como fator de divisão e de conflitos. Propõe por isso, o reconhecimento e a inclusão dos diferentes grupos étnicos no poder (Magode, 1996; Cahen, 1996; Lundin, 1996). Na segunda, argumenta-se que as etnias perderam a sua relevância em virtude das transformações sociopolíticas e económicas havidas no país (Castiano, 2010), ou como outros defendem, que objetivamente elas não existem, se não apenas como reflexo dos conflitos pelo acesso aos recursos e poder (Serra, 1996). Sendo assim, o obstáculo da unidade nacional são as desigualdades económicas e não as diferenças étnicas. Mediante o trabalho de observação, que incluiu entrevistas, conversas, descrição e fotografias, como técnicas de recolha de dados, combinado com a pesquisa documental, este trabalho argumenta que, existe no mercado uma convivência multicultural, mas regista-se ainda défice nas relações interculturais. Os vendedores do Sul, consideram-se culturalmente superiores em relação aos seus colegas do norte do Save. Tal como outras pessoas da região sul, estes vendedores tratam os seus colegas pelo termo xingondo, que além da simples identificação, é usado para desqualificar os seus colegas do norte. Assim, o silêncio em relação ao etnocentrismo das pessoas do sul, a timidez que ainda se verifica em relação ao uso oficial das línguas moçambicanas, que são o meio de comunicação mais usado, bem como a incipiente provisão dos direitos da cidadania, constituem os principais obstáculos à unidade nacional. O estudo termina propondo a operacionalização do conceito da unidade nacional, tendo em conta, por um lado o respeito pelas diferenças culturais e a promoção do diálogo intercultural e por outro, o combate contra as diferenças abismais entre ricos e pobres.

Semantic social network analysis

Mestrado em Engenharia Informática

The influence of the blood pressure on the venous cerebral flow measured by magnetic susceptibility (SWI) technique

Susceptibility Weighted Image (SWI) is a Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) technique that combines high spatial resolution and sensitivity to provide magnetic susceptibility differences between tissues. It is extremely sensitive to venous blood due to its iron content of deoxyhemoglobin. The aim of this study was to evaluate, through the SWI technique, the differences in cerebral venous vasculature according to the variation of blood pressure values. 20 subjects divided in two groups (10 hypertensive and 10 normotensive patients) underwent a MRI system with a Siemens® scanner model Avanto of 1.5T using a synergy head coil (4 channels). The obtained sequences were T1w, T2w-FLAIR, T2* and SWI. The value of Contrast-to-Noise Ratio (CNR) was assessed in MinIP (Minimum Intensity Projection) and Magnitude images, through drawing free hand ROIs in venous structures: Superior Sagittal Sinus (SSS) Internal Cerebral Vein (ICV) and Sinus Confluence (SC). The obtained values were presented in descriptive statistics-quartiles and extremes diagrams. The results were compared between groups. CNR shown higher values for normotensive group in MinIP (108.89 ± 6.907) to ICV; (238.73 ± 18.556) to SC and (239.384 ± 52.303) to SSS. These values are bigger than images from Hypertensive group about 46 a.u. in average. Comparing the results of Magnitude and MinIP images, there were obtained lower CNR values for the hypertensive group. There were differences in the CNR values between both groups, being these values more expressive in the large vessels-SSS and SC. The SWI is a potential technique to evaluate and characterize the blood pressure variation in the studied vessels adding a physiological perspective to MRI and giving a new approach to the radiological vascular studies.

Traduzir Cesário Verde - Cesário Verde intraduzível

It is main goal of this article to stimulate the debate and reflection on Translation Studies. Based on Cesário Verde‘s poem O Sentimento dum Ocidental (1880) we will discuss the effectiveness and applicability of poetry translation. Since the beginning of the XX century Cesário Verde and his work have been studied on an international range. We may therefore make reference to outnumbered translations of his poems in English, French, German, Italian, and Czech. Poetry translation raises however several difficulties which may affect the comprehension, interpretation and analysis not only of this author but also of his texts. In this manner we will naturally confront as well some of the most relevant items for Translation Studies, namely: Translation purposes and criteria; Translation necessity, possibility and usefulness. We invite you thus to observe the rich and complex Poetry-Translation relation within the analysis of one Cesário‘s poem in Italian, English, German and French.

Detection of ZnS phases in CZTS thin-films by EXAFS

Copper zinc tin sulfide (CZTS) is a promising Earthabundant thin-film solar cell material; it has an appropriate band gap of ~1.45 eV and a high absorption coefficient. The most efficient CZTS cells tend to be slightly Zn-rich and Cu-poor. However, growing Zn-rich CZTS films can sometimes result in phase decomposition of CZTS into ZnS and Cu2SnS3, which is generally deleterious to solar cell performance. Cubic ZnS is difficult to detect by XRD, due to a similar diffraction pattern. We hypothesize that synchrotron-based extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS), which is sensitive to local chemical environment, may be able to determine the quantity of ZnS phase in CZTS films by detecting differences in the second-nearest neighbor shell of the Zn atoms. Films of varying stoichiometries, from Zn-rich to Cu-rich (Zn-poor) were examined using the EXAFS technique. Differences in the spectra as a function of Cu/Zn ratio are detected. Linear combination analysis suggests increasing ZnS signal as the CZTS films become more Zn-rich. We demonstrate that the sensitive technique of EXAFS could be used to quantify the amount of ZnS present and provide a guide to crystal growth of highly phase pure films.

Foresight methodologies to understand changes in the labour process. Experience from Portugal

The foresight and scenario building methods can be an interesting reference for social sciences, especially in terms of innovative methods for labour process analysis. A scenario – as a central concept for the prospective analysis – can be considered as a rich and detailed portrait of a plausible future world. It can be a useful tool for policy-makers to grasp problems clearly and comprehensively, and to better pinpoint challenges as well as opportunities in an overall framework. The features of the foresight methods are being used in some labour policy making experiences. Case studies developed in Portugal will be presented, and some conclusions will be drawn in order to organise a set of principles for foresight analysis applied to the European project WORKS on the work organisation re-structuring in the knowledge society, and on the work design methods for new management structures of virtual organisations.

A expressão dramática no desenvolvimento da formação pessoal e social da criança em idade pré-escolar

Relatório da Prática Profissional Supervisionada Mestrado em Educação Pré-Escolar

Melhoria do processo produtivo

A dissertação descreve o levantamento e otimização do processo de fabrico de uma peça plástica para um automóvel. A otimização deste processo produtivo tem em vista a rentabilização de recursos humanos, a redução de custos associados e a redução de atividades ao longo do processo, tais como armazenamento de produto semiacabado, uma vez que este deixa de existir, a eliminação de fluxos logísticos e a eliminação do posto de montagem de componentes desta peça. A metodologia utilizada neste projeto centra-se na aplicação de ferramentas que permitem a análise e melhoria de processos produtivos, tais como o diagrama de processo, o diagrama spaghetti, o PDCA, a cronometragem dos tempos por tarefa e a aplicação de uma heurística para o balanceamento do futuro posto de trabalho da peça em estudo. O diagrama de processo, o diagrama de spaghetti e a cronometragem dos tempos por tarefas mostraram o estado atual do processo produtivo. Da análise do atual estado verifica-se que existe muito desperdício de mão-de-obra nas duas estações de trabalho, injeção e montagem. A eliminação do posto de trabalho exclusivo para montagem e junção dos processos de injeção e montagem no mesmo posto de trabalho, com a aplicação de uma heurística para balanceamento do novo posto de trabalho, demonstra que os ganhos são muito significativos. A aplicação do ciclo PDCA, na base da qual está a elaboração de um plano de ações, tornará esta mudança possível e bem-sucedida. A intenção deste projeto é demonstrar que o estado atual pode sempre ser melhorado se se usarem as ferramentas corretas para análise e proposta de melhorias que trarão ganhos à empresa a curto prazo. Usando esta sugestão, a empresa poderá dar início a um novo ciclo em que o espírito de melhoria esteja presente todos os dias em toda a organização.