971 resultados para Reading and Interpretation of Statistical Graphs
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In a very volatile industry of high technology it is of utmost importance to accurately forecast customers’ demand. However, statistical forecasting of sales, especially in heavily competitive electronics product business, has always been a challenging task due to very high variation in demand and very short product life cycles of products. The purpose of this thesis is to validate if statistical methods can be applied to forecasting sales of short life cycle electronics products and provide a feasible framework for implementing statistical forecasting in the environment of the case company. Two different approaches have been developed for forecasting on short and medium term and long term horizons. Both models are based on decomposition models, but differ in interpretation of the model residuals. For long term horizons residuals are assumed to represent white noise, whereas for short and medium term forecasting horizon residuals are modeled using statistical forecasting methods. Implementation of both approaches is performed in Matlab. Modeling results have shown that different markets exhibit different demand patterns and therefore different analytical approaches are appropriate for modeling demand in these markets. Moreover, the outcomes of modeling imply that statistical forecasting can not be handled separately from judgmental forecasting, but should be perceived only as a basis for judgmental forecasting activities. Based on modeling results recommendations for further deployment of statistical methods in sales forecasting of the case company are developed.
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Peer-reviewed
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The identifiability of the parameters of a heat exchanger model without phase change was studied in this Master’s thesis using synthetically made data. A fast, two-step Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) was tested with a couple of case studies and a heat exchanger model. The two-step MCMC-method worked well and decreased the computation time compared to the traditional MCMC-method. The effect of measurement accuracy of certain control variables to the identifiability of parameters was also studied. The accuracy used did not seem to have a remarkable effect to the identifiability of parameters. The use of the posterior distribution of parameters in different heat exchanger geometries was studied. It would be computationally most efficient to use the same posterior distribution among different geometries in the optimisation of heat exchanger networks. According to the results, this was possible in the case when the frontal surface areas were the same among different geometries. In the other cases the same posterior distribution can be used for optimisation too, but that will give a wider predictive distribution as a result. For condensing surface heat exchangers the numerical stability of the simulation model was studied. As a result, a stable algorithm was developed.
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A statistical mixture-design technique was used to study the effects of different solvents and their mixtures on the yield, total polyphenol content, and antioxidant capacity of the crude extracts from the bark of Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi (Anacardiaceae). The experimental results and their response-surface models showed that ternary mixtures with equal portions of all the three solvents (water, ethanol and acetone) were better than the binary mixtures in generating crude extracts with the highest yield (22.04 ± 0.48%), total polyphenol content (29.39 ± 0.39%), and antioxidant capacity (6.38 ± 0.21). An analytical method was developed and validated for the determination of total polyphenols in the extracts. Optimal conditions for the various parameters in this analytical method, namely, the time for the chromophoric reaction to stabilize, wavelength of the absorption maxima to be monitored, the reference standard and the concentration of sodium carbonate were determined to be 5 min, 780 nm, pyrogallol, and 14.06% w v-1, respectively. UV-Vis spectrophotometric monitoring of the reaction under these conditions proved the method to be linear, specific, precise, accurate, reproducible, robust, and easy to perform.
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Early identification of beginning readers at risk of developing reading and writing difficulties plays an important role in the prevention and provision of appropriate intervention. In Tanzania, as in other countries, there are children in schools who are at risk of developing reading and writing difficulties. Many of these children complete school without being identified and without proper and relevant support. The main language in Tanzania is Kiswahili, a transparent language. Contextually relevant, reliable and valid instruments of identification are needed in Tanzanian schools. This study aimed at the construction and validation of a group-based screening instrument in the Kiswahili language for identifying beginning readers at risk of reading and writing difficulties. In studying the function of the test there was special interest in analyzing the explanatory power of certain contextual factors related to the home and school. Halfway through grade one, 337 children from four purposively selected primary schools in Morogoro municipality were screened with a group test consisting of 7 subscales measuring phonological awareness, word and letter knowledge and spelling. A questionnaire about background factors and the home and school environments related to literacy was also used. The schools were chosen based on performance status (i.e. high, good, average and low performing schools) in order to include variation. For validation, 64 children were chosen from the original sample to take an individual test measuring nonsense word reading, word reading, actual text reading, one-minute reading and writing. School marks from grade one and a follow-up test half way through grade two were also used for validation. The correlations between the results from the group test and the three measures used for validation were very high (.83-.95). Content validity of the group test was established by using items drawn from authorized text books for reading in grade one. Construct validity was analyzed through item analysis and principal component analysis. The difficulty level of most items in both the group test and the follow-up test was good. The items also discriminated well. Principal component analysis revealed one powerful latent dimension (initial literacy factor), accounting for 93% of the variance. This implies that it could be possible to use any set of the subtests of the group test for screening and prediction. The K-Means cluster analysis revealed four clusters: at-risk children, strugglers, readers and good readers. The main concern in this study was with the groups of at-risk children (24%) and strugglers (22%), who need the most assistance. The predictive validity of the group test was analyzed by correlating the measures from the two school years and by cross tabulating grade one and grade two clusters. All the correlations were positive and very high, and 94% of the at-risk children in grade two were already identified in the group test in grade one. The explanatory power of some of the home and school factors was very strong. The number of books at home accounted for 38% of the variance in reading and writing ability measured by the group test. Parents´ reading ability and the support children received at home for schoolwork were also influential factors. Among the studied school factors school attendance had the strongest explanatory power, accounting for 21% of the variance in reading and writing ability. Having been in nursery school was also of importance. Based on the findings in the study a short version of the group test was created. It is suggested for use in the screening processes in grade one aiming at identifying children at risk of reading and writing difficulties in the Tanzanian context. Suggestions for further research as well as for actions for improving the literacy skills of Tanzanian children are presented.
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The aim of the study was to create and evaluate an intervention programme for Tanzanian children from a low-income area who are at risk of reading and writing difficulties. The learning difficulties, including reading and writing difficulties, are likely to be behind many of the common school problems in Tanzania, but they are not well understood, and research is needed. The design of the study included an identification and intervention phase with follow-up. A group based dynamic assessment approach was used in identifying children at risk of difficulties in reading and writing. The same approach was used in the intervention. The study was a randomized experiment with one experimental and two control groups. For the experimental and the control groups, a total of 96 (46 girls and 50 boys) children from grade one were screened out of 301 children from two schools in a low income urban area of Dar-es-Salaam. One third of the children, the experimental group, participated in an intensive training programme in literacy skills for five weeks, six hours per week, aimed at promoting reading and writing ability, while the children in the control groups had a mathematics and art programme. Follow-up was performed five months after the intervention. The intervention programme and the tests were based on the Zambian BASAT (Basic Skill Assessment Tool, Ketonen & Mulenga, 2003), but the content was drawn from the Kiswahili school curriculum in Tanzania. The main components of the training and testing programme were the same, only differing in content. The training process was different from traditional training in Tanzanian schools in that principles of teaching and training in dynamic assessment were followed. Feedback was the cornerstone of the training and the focus was on supporting the children in exploring knowledge and strategies in performing the tasks. The experimental group improved significantly more (p = .000) than the control groups during the intervention from pre-test to follow-up (repeated measures ANOVA). No differences between the control groups were noticed. The effect was significant on all the measures: phonological awareness, reading skills, writing skills and overall literacy skills. A transfer effect on school marks in Kiswahili and English was found. Following a discussion of the results, suggestions for further research and adaptation of the programme are presented.
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Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is classified within the family Hepeviridae, genus Hepevirus. HEV genotype 3 (Gt3) infections are endemic in pigs in Western Europe and in North and South America and cause zoonotic infections in humans. Several serological assays to detect HEV antibodies in pigs have been developed, at first mainly based on HEV genotype 1 (Gt1) antigens. To develop a sensitive HEV Gt3 ELISA, a recombinant baculovirus expression product of HEV Gt3 open reading frame-2 was produced and coated onto polystyrene ELISA plates. After incubation of porcine sera, bound HEV antibodies were detected with anti-porcine anti-IgG and anti-IgM conjugates. For primary estimation of sensitivity and specificity of the assay, sets of sera were used from pigs experimentally infected with HEV Gt3. For further validation of the assay and to set the cutoff value, a batch of 1100 pig sera was used. All pig sera were tested using the developed HEV Gt3 assay and two other serologic assays based on HEV Gt1 antigens. Since there is no gold standard available for HEV antibody testing, further validation and a definite setting of the cutoff of the developed HEV Gt3 assay were performed using a statistical approach based on Bayes' theorem. The developed and validated HEV antibody assay showed effective detection of HEV-specific antibodies. This assay can contribute to an improved detection of HEV antibodies and enable more reliable estimates of the prevalence of HEV Gt3 in swine in different regions.
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Abstract: Nietzsche's Will-to-Power Ontology: An Interpretation of Beyond Good and Evil § 36 By: Mark Minuk Will-to-power is the central component of Nietzsche's philosophy, and passage 36 of Beyond Good and Evil is essential to coming to an understanding of it. 1 argue for and defend the thesis that will-to-power constitutes Nietzsche's ontology, and offer a new understanding of what that means. Nietzsche's ontology can be talked about as though it were a traditional substance ontology (i.e., a world made up of forces; a duality of conflicting forces described as 'towards which' and 'away from which'). However, 1 argue that what defines this ontology is an understanding of valuation as ontologically fundamental—^the basis of interpretation, and from which a substance ontology emerges. In the second chapter, I explain Nietzsche's ontology, as reflected in this passage, through a discussion of Heidegger's two ontological categories in Being and Time (readiness-to-hand, and present-at-hand). In a nutshell, it means that the world of our desires and passions (the most basic of which is for power) is ontologically more fundamental than the material world, or any other interpretation, which is to say, the material world emerges out of a world of our desires and passions. In the first chapter, I address the problematic form of the passage reflected in the first sentence. The passage is in a hypothetical style makes no claim to positive knowledge or truth, and, superficially, looks like Schopenhaurian position for the metaphysics of the will, which Nietzsche rejects. 1 argue that the hypothetical form of the passage is a matter of style, namely, the style of a free-spirit for whom the question of truth is reframed as a question of values. In the third and final chapter, 1 address the charge that Nietzsche's interpretation is a conscious anthropomorphic projection. 1 suggest that the charge rests on a distinction (between nature and man) that Nietzsche rejects. I also address the problem of the causality of the will for Nietzsche, by suggesting that an alternative, perspectival form of causality is possible.
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This study examined the effects of providing students with explicit instruction in how to use a repertoire of reading comprehension strategies and test taking skills when reading and responding to three types of questions (direct, inferential, critical). Specifically, the study examined whether providing students with a "model" of how to read and respond to the text and to the comprehension questions improved their reading comprehension relative to providing them with implicit instruction on reading comprehension strategies and test taking skills. Students' reading comprehension and test taking performance scores were compared as a function of instructional condition. Students from 2 grade 8 classes participated in this study. The reading component of the Canadian Achievement Tests, Third Edition (CAT/3) was used to identify students' level of reading comprehension prior to the formal instructional sessions. Students received either explicit instruction, which involved modelling, or implicit instruction, which consisted of review and discussion of the strategies to be used. Comprehension was measured through the administration of formative tests after each instructional session. The formative tests consisted of reading comprehension questions pertaining to a specific form of text (narrative, informational, graphic). In addition, students completed 3 summative tests and a delayed comprehension test which consisted of the alternative version of the CAT/3 standardized reading assessment. These data served as a posttest measure to determine whether students had shown an improvement in their reading comprehension skills as a result of the program delivery. There were significant differences in students' Canadian Achievement Test performance scores prior to the onset of the study. Students in the implicit group attained significantly higher comprehension scores than did students in the explicit group. The results from the program sessions indicated no significant differences in reading comprehension between the implicit and explicit conditions, with the exception of the 6th session involving the reading and interpreting of graphic text. Students in the explicit group performed significantly better when reading and interpreting graphic text than those in the implicit group. No significant differences were evident between the two study conditions across the three summative tests. Upon completion of the study, the results from the Canadian Achievement Test indicated no significant differences in performance between the two study conditions. The findings from this study reveal the effectiveness of providing students with explicit strategy instruction when reading and responding to various forms of text. Modelling the appropriate reading comprehension strategies and test taking skills enabled students to apply the same thought processes to their own independent work. This form of instruction enabled students in the explicit group to improve in their abilities to comprehend and respond to text and therefore should be incorporated as an effective form of classroom teaching.
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There is a great deal of evidence to support the examination of an interactive relationship between the medium and the viewer in the interpretation of mainstream media. The exact nature of this relationship, however, is not well understood. The current study was carried out to assess the variables that may help explain why certain people interpret media, such as music videos, differently than others. Jensen's concept of reception analysis describes the relationship between the medium and the audience, and thus remains a strong focus within this study. Differences in the interpretation of music videos were investigated as a function of Absorption, gender role, screen size, age and viewing experience. Multiple regression analyses uncovered independent predictions of sexuality and violence scores by absorption and experience, as well as an interaction between absorption and screen size in the sexuality rating of the music videos.
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The present study investigates the usefulness of a multi-method approach to the measurement of reading motivation and achievement. A sample of 127 elementary and middle-school children aged 10 to 14 responded to measures of motivation, attributions, and achievement both longitudinally and in a challenging reading context. Novel measures of motivation and attributions were constructed, validated, and utilized to examine the relationship between ~ motivation, attributions, and achievement over a one-year period (Study I). The impact of classroom contexts and instructional practices was also explored through a study of the influence of topic interest and challenge on motivation, attributions, and persistence (Study II), as well as through interviews with children regarding motivation and reading in the classroom (Study III). Creation and validation of novel measures of motivation and attributions supported the use of a self-report measure of motivation in situation-specific contexts, and confirmed a three-factor structure of attributions for reading performance in both hypothetical and situation-specific contexts. A one-year follow up study of children's motivation and reading achievement demonstrated declines in all components of motivation beginning at age 10 through 12, and particularly strong decreases in motivation with the transition to middle school. Past perceived competence for reading predicted current achievement after controlling for past achievement, and showed the strongest relationships with reading-related skills in both elementary and middle school. Motivation and attributions were strongly related, and children with higher motivation Fulmer III displayed more adaptive attributions for reading success and failure. In the context of a developmentally inappropriate challenging reading task, children's motivation for reading, especially in terms of perceived competence, was threatened. However, interest in the story buffered some ofthe negative impacts of challenge, sustaining children's motivation, adaptive attributions, and reading persistence. Finally, children's responses during interviews outlined several emotions, perceptions, and aspects of reading tasks and contexts that influence reading motivation and achievement. Findings revealed that children with comparable motivation and achievement profiles respond in a similar way to particular reading situations, such as excessive challenge, but also that motivation is dynamic and individualistic and can change over time and across contexts. Overall, the present study outlines the importance of motivation and adaptive attributions for reading success, and the necessity of integrating various methodologies to study the dynamic construct of achievement motivation.
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The (n, k)-star interconnection network was proposed in 1995 as an attractive alternative to the n-star topology in parallel computation. The (n, k )-star has significant advantages over the n-star which itself was proposed as an attractive alternative to the popular hypercube. The major advantage of the (n, k )-star network is its scalability, which makes it more flexible than the n-star as an interconnection network. In this thesis, we will focus on finding graph theoretical properties of the (n, k )-star as well as developing parallel algorithms that run on this network. The basic topological properties of the (n, k )-star are first studied. These are useful since they can be used to develop efficient algorithms on this network. We then study the (n, k )-star network from algorithmic point of view. Specifically, we will investigate both fundamental and application algorithms for basic communication, prefix computation, and sorting, etc. A literature review of the state-of-the-art in relation to the (n, k )-star network as well as some open problems in this area are also provided.