Les coûts des dommages éléments naturels aux bâtiments et l'influence des facteurs du risque dans un contexte d'assurance immobilière : analyse de cas des innondations et de la grêle en Suisse

In Switzerland, the annual cost of damage by natural elements has been increasing for several years despite the introduction of protective measures. Mainly induced by material destruction building insurance companies have to pay the majority of this cost. In many European countries, governments and insurance companies consider prevention strategies to reduce vulnerability. In Switzerland, since 2004, the cost of damage due to natural hazards has surpassed the cost of damage due to fire; a traditional activity of the Cantonal Insurance company (EGA). Therefore, the strategy for efficient fire prevention incorporates a reduction of the vulnerability of buildings. The thesis seeks to illustrate the relevance of such an approach when applied to the damage caused by natural hazards. It examines the role of insurance place and its involvement in targeted prevention of natural disasters. Integrated risk management involves a faultless comprehension of all risk parameters The first part of the thesis is devoted to the theoretical development of the key concepts that influence risk management, such as: hazard, vulnerability, exposure or damage. The literature on this subject, very prolific in recent years, was taken into account and put in perspective in the context of this study. Among the risk parameters, it is shown in the thesis that vulnerability is a factor that we can influence efficiently in order to limit the cost of damage to buildings. This is confirmed through the development of an analysis method. This method has led to the development of a tool to assess damage to buildings by flooding. The tool, designed for the property insurer or owner, proposes several steps, namely: - Vulnerability and damage potential assessment; - Proposals for remedial measures and risk reduction from an analysis of the costs of a potential flood; - Adaptation of a global strategy in high-risk areas based on the elements at risk. The final part of the thesis is devoted to the study of a hail event in order to provide a better understanding of damage to buildings. For this, two samples from the available claims data were selected and analysed in the study. The results allow the identification of new trends A second objective of the study was to develop a hail model based on the available data The model simulates a random distribution of intensities and coupled with a risk model, proposes a simulation of damage costs for the determined study area. Le coût annuel des dommages provoqués par les éléments naturels en Suisse est conséquent et sa tendance est en augmentation depuis plusieurs années, malgré la mise en place d'ouvrages de protection et la mise en oeuvre de moyens importants. Majoritairement induit par des dégâts matériels, le coût est supporté en partie par les assurances immobilières en ce qui concerne les dommages aux bâtiments. Dans de nombreux pays européens, les gouvernements et les compagnies d'assurance se sont mis à concevoir leur stratégie de prévention en termes de réduction de la vulnérabilité. Depuis 2004, en Suisse, ce coût a dépassé celui des dommages dus à l'incendie, activité traditionnelle des établissements cantonaux d'assurance (ECA). Ce fait, aux implications stratégiques nombreuses dans le domaine public de la gestion des risques, résulte en particulier d'une politique de prévention des incendies menée efficacement depuis plusieurs années, notamment par le biais de la diminution de la vulnérabilité des bâtiments. La thèse, par la mise en valeur de données actuarielles ainsi que par le développement d'outils d'analyse, cherche à illustrer la pertinence d'une telle approche appliquée aux dommages induits par les phénomènes naturels. Elle s'interroge sur la place de l'assurance et son implication dans une prévention ciblée des catastrophes naturelles. La gestion intégrale des risques passe par une juste maîtrise de ses paramètres et de leur compréhension. La première partie de la thèse est ainsi consacrée au développement théorique des concepts clés ayant une influence sur la gestion des risques, comme l'aléa, la vulnérabilité, l'exposition ou le dommage. La littérature à ce sujet, très prolifique ces dernières années, a été repnse et mise en perspective dans le contexte de l'étude, à savoir l'assurance immobilière. Parmi les paramètres du risque, il est démontré dans la thèse que la vulnérabilité est un facteur sur lequel il est possible d'influer de manière efficace dans le but de limiter les coûts des dommages aux bâtiments. Ce raisonnement est confirmé dans un premier temps dans le cadre de l'élaboration d'une méthode d'analyse ayant débouché sur le développement d'un outil d'estimation des dommages aux bâtiments dus aux inondations. L'outil, destiné aux assurances immobilières, et le cas échéant aux propriétaires, offre plusieurs étapes, à savoir : - l'analyse de la vulnérabilité et le potentiel de dommages ; - des propositions de mesures de remédiation et de réduction du risque issues d'une analyse des coûts engendrés par une inondation potentielle; - l'adaptation d'une stratégie globale dans les zones à risque en fonction des éléments à risque. La dernière partie de la thèse est consacrée à l'étude d'un événement de grêle dans le but de fournir une meilleure compréhension des dommages aux bâtiments et de leur structure. Pour cela, deux échantillons ont été sélectionnés et analysés parmi les données de sinistres à disposition de l'étude. Les résultats obtenus, tant au niveau du portefeuille assuré que de l'analyse individuelle, permettent de dégager des tendances nouvelles. Un deuxième objectif de l'étude a consisté à élaborer une modélisation d'événements de grêle basée sur les données à disposition. Le modèle permet de simuler une distribution aléatoire des intensités et, couplé à un modèle d'estimation des risques, offre une simulation des coûts de dommages envisagés pour une zone d'étude déterminée. Les perspectives de ce travail permettent une meilleure focalisation du rôle de l'assurance et de ses besoins en matière de prévention.

Savoir s'assurer : économie politique internationale des normes de services et mondialisation du marché de la (ré)assurance

The significance of the insurance industry in the functioning of the world economy is often underestimated, with premiums reaching 7.5 % of world gross domestic product (GDP), three times as much as worldwide military expenses. Insurance services mutualise risks in such a way as they provide a form of private governance that complements or makes up for guarantees otherwise supplied by the State. This case study of international standards developed for the insurance market provides evidence that deviates from conventional accounts considering service standards as heavily dependent of national environments and industry specificities. The chapter examines the relationship between tertiarisation, internationalisation and standardisation of contemporary economies by highlighting the complementarity between institutionalist approaches of the French regulation school and international political economy scholarship shedding light on the polarisation in the possible use of standards, notwithstanding thesectoraland institutional specificities of the activities concerned.

Male reproductive success and multiple paternity in wild, low-density populations of the adder (Vipera berus).

We studied for the first time the occurrence of multiple paternity, male reproductive success, and neonate survival in wild, low-density adder (Vipera berus) populations using 13 microsatellite loci. Paternity was assigned for 15 clutches, collected during 3 years. Our data demonstrated that multiple paternity can occur at a high level (69%) in natural populations of V. berus, even if the density of adults is low. The high proportion of multiple sired clutches was comparable to the proportion observed in captive populations. Male reproductive success significantly increased with body length, and only the largest males successfully sired entire clutches. Finally, no relationship was detected between the number of fathers per clutch and neonate survival. These results suggest that multiple matings could be beneficial in populations with high level of inbreeding or low male fecundity.

Arrest du conseil d'Etat du Roy, pour la seureté des sommes dûës à ceux qui sont compris dans les brevets d'assurance accordezs par le Roy sur les charges de sa Maison, & autres charges de cette nature ou gouvernemens . Du vingt-cinquiéme janvier 1694

[Acte. 1694-01-25. Versailles]

Estimating the basic reproductive number from viral sequence data.

Epidemiological processes leave a fingerprint in the pattern of genetic structure of virus populations. Here, we provide a new method to infer epidemiological parameters directly from viral sequence data. The method is based on phylogenetic analysis using a birth-death model (BDM) rather than the commonly used coalescent as the model for the epidemiological transmission of the pathogen. Using the BDM has the advantage that transmission and death rates are estimated independently and therefore enables for the first time the estimation of the basic reproductive number of the pathogen using only sequence data, without further assumptions like the average duration of infection. We apply the method to genetic data of the HIV-1 epidemic in Switzerland.

Weak and Strong Altruism in Trait Groups: Reproductive Suicide, Personal Fitness, and Expected Value

A simple variant of trait group selection, employing predators as the mechanism underlying group selection, supports contingent reproductive suicide as altruism (i.e., behavior lowering personal fitness while augmenting that of another) without kin assortment. The contingent suicidal type may either saturate the population or be polymorphic with a type avoiding suicide, depending on parameters. In addition to contingent suicide, this randomly assorting morph may also exhibit continuously expressed strong altruism (sensu Wilson 1979) usually thought restricted to kin selection. The model will not, however, support a sterile worker caste as such, where sterility occurs before life history events associated with effective altruism; reproductive suicide must remain fundamentally contingent (facultative sensu West Eberhard 1987; Myles 1988) under random assortment. The continuously expressed strong altruism supported by the model may be reinterpreted as probability of arbitrarily committing reproductive suicide, without benefit for another; such arbitrary suicide (a "load" on "adaptive" suicide) is viable only under a more restricted parameter space relative to the necessarily concomitant adaptive contingent suicide.

Quality assurance of the EORTC 22043-30041 trial in post-operative radiotherapy in prostate cancer: Results of the Dummy Run procedure.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The EORTC 22043-30041 trial investigates the role of the addition of androgen suppression to post-operative radiotherapy in patients who have undergone radical prostatectomy. As part of the quality assurance of radiotherapy (QART) a Dummy Run (DR) procedure was performed. MATERIALS AND METHOD: The protocol included detailed and published delineation guidelines. Participating institutions digitally submitted radiotherapy treatment volumes and a treatment plan for a standard clinical case. Submissions were centrally reviewed using the VODCA software platform. RESULTS: Thirty-eight submissions from thirty-one institutions were reviewed. Six were accepted without comments. Twenty-three were accepted with comments on one or more items: target volume delineation (22), OAR delineation (23), planning and dosimetry (3) or treatment verification (1). Nine submissions were rejected requiring resubmission, seven for target volume delineation reasons alone. Intervention to highlight the importance of delineation guidelines was made prior to the entry of the first patient in the trial. After this, a lower percentage of resubmissions was required. CONCLUSIONS: The EORTC 22043-30041 Dummy Run highlights the need for timely and effective QART in clinical trials. The variation in target volume and OAR definition demonstrates that clinical guidelines and radiotherapy protocols are not a substitute for QART procedures. Early intervention in response to the Dummy Run improved protocol understanding.

Quality assurance mechanisms in agrifood: The case of the Spanish fresh meat sector

The largest fresh meat brand names in Spain are analyzed here to studyhow quality is signaled in agribusiness and how the underlying quality-assurance organizations work. Results show, first, that organizationalform varies according to the specialization of the brand name.Publicly-controlled brand names are grounded on market contracting withindividual producers, providing stronger incentives. In contrast,private brands rely more on hierarchy, taking advantage of itssuperiority in solving specific coordination problems. Second, theseemingly redundant coexistence of several quality indicators for agiven product is explained in efficiency terms. Multiple brands areshown to be complementary, given their specialization in guaranteeingdifferent attributes of the product.

L'assurance de qualité en dépistage organise du cancer du sein [Quality assurance in organized screening of breast cancer]

Quality assurance is an essential process which should be applied for any organised breast cancer screening program since mammography it the only test available for an early diagnosis. It should also assess the quality of diagnostic and treatment processes in order to ascertain that the quality of the screening program would not be altered by the procedures which take place after the screening. Quality assurance must be applied to each component of the screening process: equipment, radiographers (technicians) as well as radiologists. It is a multidisciplinary approach following a well defined protocol, which should be supervised by a coordination unit, the Breast Cancer Screening Foundation in Canton of Vaud. Performances of the Vaud program show clearly at what extend multiple reading method improves the quality of screening. It seems that there is no inconvenient to involve radiologists who wish to participate without any selection to the reading process provided that there is in place a team of 2nd and 3rd readers who benefit of an appropriate training and experience.