Short-term forecasting of power demand in the Nord Pool market

Sähkönkulutuksen lyhyen aikavälin ennustamista on tutkittu jo pitkään. Pohjoismaisien sähkömarkkinoiden vapautuminen on vaikuttanut sähkönkulutuksen ennustamiseen. Aluksi työssä perehdyttiin aiheeseen liittyvään kirjallisuuteen. Sähkönkulutuksen käyttäytymistä tutkittiin eri aikoina. Lämpötila tilastojen käyttökelpoisuutta arvioitiin sähkönkulutusennustetta ajatellen. Kulutus ennusteet tehtiin tunneittain ja ennustejaksona käytettiin yhtä viikkoa. Työssä tutkittiin sähkönkulutuksen- ja lämpötiladatan saatavuutta ja laatua Nord Poolin markkina-alueelta. Syötettävien tietojen ominaisuudet vaikuttavat tunnittaiseen sähkönkulutuksen ennustamiseen. Sähkönkulutuksen ennustamista varten mallinnettiin kaksi lähestymistapaa. Testattavina malleina käytettiin regressiomallia ja autoregressiivistä mallia (autoregressive model, ARX). Mallien parametrit estimoitiin pienimmän neliösumman menetelmällä. Tulokset osoittavat että kulutus- ja lämpötiladata on tarkastettava jälkikäteen koska reaaliaikaisen syötetietojen laatu on huonoa. Lämpötila vaikuttaa kulutukseen talvella, mutta se voidaan jättää huomiotta kesäkaudella. Regressiomalli on vakaampi kuin ARX malli. Regressiomallin virhetermi voidaan mallintaa aikasarjamallia hyväksikäyttäen.

Bevacizumab, Pemetrexed, and Cisplatin, or Bevacizumab and Erlotinib for Patients With Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Stratified by Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Mutation: Phase II Trial SAKK19/09.

OBJECTIVE: The goal was to demonstrate that tailored therapy, according to tumor histology and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation status, and the introduction of novel drug combinations in the treatment of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer are promising for further investigation. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter phase II trial with mandatory EGFR testing and 2 strata. Patients with EGFR wild type received 4 cycles of bevacizumab, pemetrexed, and cisplatin, followed by maintenance with bevacizumab and pemetrexed until progression. Patients with EGFR mutations received bevacizumab and erlotinib until progression. Patients had computed tomography scans every 6 weeks and repeat biopsy at progression. The primary end point was progression-free survival (PFS) ≥ 35% at 6 months in stratum EGFR wild type; 77 patients were required to reach a power of 90% with an alpha of 5%. Secondary end points were median PFS, overall survival, best overall response rate (ORR), and tolerability. Further biomarkers and biopsy at progression were also evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 77 evaluable patients with EGFR wild type received an average of 9 cycles (range, 1-25). PFS at 6 months was 45.5%, median PFS was 6.9 months, overall survival was 12.1 months, and ORR was 62%. Kirsten rat sarcoma oncogene mutations and circulating vascular endothelial growth factor negatively correlated with survival, but thymidylate synthase expression did not. A total of 20 patients with EGFR mutations received an average of 16 cycles. PFS at 6 months was 70%, median PFS was 14 months, and ORR was 70%. Biopsy at progression was safe and successful in 71% of the cases. CONCLUSIONS: Both combination therapies were promising for further studies. Biopsy at progression was feasible and will be part of future SAKK studies to investigate molecular mechanisms of resistance.

The role of power relations in strategic supply management – A value net approach

Supplier relationships are key elements of supply management and thus have attracted substantial research interest among academics and practitioners. The collaborative nature of relationships has been the focus of the mainstream research, and limited interest has been channelled towards power in buyer–supplier relationships. However, power is one of the key factors determining the outcomes in many business relations. Hence, one of the main objectives of this dissertation is to clarify how power may influence the nature of buyer–supplier relationships and, moreover, the depth of collaboration. Another main objective is to clarify the role of power relations in strategic supply management. Given the different nature of relationships, the firm needs divergent strategies in its supply management in order to handle them efficiently. Power has been identified as one of the factors that affect the nature of buyer–supplier relationships, and firms should thus develop strategies for handling power relations. Three research questions are addressed in pursuit of these objectives, the aim being to clarify the sources of power, the influence of power on collaboration, and the role of buyer–supplier relationships in the firm’s supply strategy. This dissertation has two parts. The first part provides a synthesis of the overall dissertation, and the second part comprises five complementary research papers. The qualitative research method is applied in an empirical case study from the Finnish food industry. The main contribution of this dissertation is that it clarifies the role of power relations in strategic supply management in value nets, and discloses the nature of power as an influencing factor in supplier relationships. It extends the discussion on power in buyer– supplier relationships in highlighting the context of networks and raising the question of network effects on power relations. It also illustrates how power positions and power relations in value nets can be determined based on the sources of power of the network actors, and shows their influence on collaboration.

RF disturbances produced by high-power photovoltaic solar plants

In this thesis, analysis of electromagnetic compatibility of high-power photovoltaic solar plant is made. Current standards suitable for photovoltaic applications are given. Measurements of antenna factor for experimental setup are shown. Also, measurements of common mode disturbance voltages in high-power solar plant are given. Importance of DC-side filter is shown. In the last part of the work, electromagnetic simulations are made. These simulations show influence of several factors to EMC of power plant. Based on these simulations and measurements recommendations are given.

Power cycling lifetime estimation of IGBT power modules based on chip temperature modeling

In this doctoral thesis, methods to estimate the expected power cycling life of power semiconductor modules based on chip temperature modeling are developed. Frequency converters operate under dynamic loads in most electric drives. The varying loads cause thermal expansion and contraction, which stresses the internal boundaries between the material layers in the power module. Eventually, the stress wears out the semiconductor modules. The wear-out cannot be detected by traditional temperature or current measurements inside the frequency converter. Therefore, it is important to develop a method to predict the end of the converter lifetime. The thesis concentrates on power-cycling-related failures of insulated gate bipolar transistors. Two types of power modules are discussed: a direct bonded copper (DBC) sandwich structure with and without a baseplate. Most common failure mechanisms are reviewed, and methods to improve the power cycling lifetime of the power modules are presented. Power cycling curves are determined for a module with a lead-free solder by accelerated power cycling tests. A lifetime model is selected and the parameters are updated based on the power cycling test results. According to the measurements, the factor of improvement in the power cycling lifetime of modern IGBT power modules is greater than 10 during the last decade. Also, it is noticed that a 10 C increase in the chip temperature cycle amplitude decreases the lifetime by 40%. A thermal model for the chip temperature estimation is developed. The model is based on power loss estimation of the chip from the output current of the frequency converter. The model is verified with a purpose-built test equipment, which allows simultaneous measurement and simulation of the chip temperature with an arbitrary load waveform. The measurement system is shown to be convenient for studying the thermal behavior of the chip. It is found that the thermal model has a 5 C accuracy in the temperature estimation. The temperature cycles that the power semiconductor chip has experienced are counted by the rainflow algorithm. The counted cycles are compared with the experimentally verified power cycling curves to estimate the life consumption based on the mission profile of the drive. The methods are validated by the lifetime estimation of a power module in a direct-driven wind turbine. The estimated lifetime of the IGBT power module in a direct-driven wind turbine is 15 000 years, if the turbine is located in south-eastern Finland.

Identification of Some Additional Loss Components in High-Power Low-Voltage Permanent Magnet Generators

Permanent magnet generators (PMG) represent the cutting edge technology in modern wind mills. The efficiency remains high (over 90%) at partial loads. To improve the machine efficiency even further, every aspect of machine losses has to be analyzed. Additional losses are often given as a certain percentage without providing any detailed information about the actual calculation process; meanwhile, there are many design-dependent losses that have an effect on the total amount of additional losses and that have to be taken into consideration. Additional losses are most often eddy current losses in different parts of the machine. These losses are usually difficult to calculate in the design process. In this doctoral thesis, some additional losses are identified and modeled. Further, suggestions on how to minimize the losses are given. Iron losses can differ significantly between the measured no-load values and the loss values under load. In addition, with embedded magnet rotors, the quadrature-axis armature reaction adds losses to the stator iron by manipulating the harmonic content of the flux. It was, therefore, re-evaluated that in salient pole machines, to minimize the losses and the loss difference between the no-load and load operation, the flux density has to be kept below 1.5 T in the stator yoke, which is the traditional guideline for machine designers. Eddy current losses may occur in the end-winding area and in the support structure of the machine, that is, in the finger plate and the clamping ring. With construction steel, these losses account for 0.08% of the input power of the machine. These losses can be reduced almost to zero by using nonmagnetic stainless steel. In addition, the machine housing may be subjected to eddy current losses if the flux density exceeds 1.5 T in the stator yoke. Winding losses can rise rapidly when high frequencies and 10–15 mm high conductors are used. In general, minimizing the winding losses is simple. For example, it can be done by dividing the conductor into transposed subconductors. However, this comes with the expense of an increase in the DC resistance. In the doctoral thesis, a new method is presented to minimize the winding losses by applying a litz wire with noninsulated strands. The construction is the same as in a normal litz wire but the insulation between the subconductors has been left out. The idea is that the connection is kept weak to prevent harmful eddy currents from flowing. Moreover, the analytical solution for calculating the AC resistance factor of the litz-wire is supplemented by including an end-winding resistance in the analytical solution. A simple measurement device is developed to measure the AC resistance in the windings. In the case of a litz-wire with originally noninsulated strands, vacuum pressure impregnation (VPI) is used to insulate the subconductors. In one of the two cases studied, the VPI affected the AC resistance factor, but in the other case, it did not have any effect. However, more research is needed to determine the effect of the VPI on litz-wire with noninsulated strands. An empirical model is developed to calculate the AC resistance factor of a single-layer formwound winding. The model includes the end-winding length and the number of strands and turns. The end winding includes the circulating current (eddy currents that are traveling through the whole winding between parallel strands) and the main current. The end-winding length also affects the total AC resistance factor.

Power to Gas - sähköenergiasta luonnonkaasua, liiketoimintamahdollisuudet Suomessa

Uusiutuvan sähköntuotannon osuuden kasvaessa kasvaa tarve tasata sähköntuotannon ja kulutuksen vaihteluita varastoimalla sähköä. Power to Gas (PtG) - sähköenergiasta luonnonkaasua tarjoaa yhden mahdollisuuden varastoida sähköä. Sähköä käytetään veden elektrolyysiin, jossa syntynyt vety käytetään metanoinissa yhdessä hiilidioksidin kanssa muodostamaan korvaavaa luonnonkaasua. Näin syntynyttä korvaava luonnonkaasua sähköstä kutsutaan e-SNG-kaasuksi. Tässä työssä tutkitaan PtG-laitoksen investointi, käyttö- ja kunnossapitokuluja. Työssä luodaan laskentamalli, jolla lasketaan PtG-laitoksen neljälle käyttötapaukselle kannattavuuslaskelma. Käyttötapauksille lasketaan myös herkkyystarkasteluja. Kannattavuuslaskelmien perusteella päätellään PtG-laitoksen liiketoimintamahdollisuudet Suomessa. Työssä laskettujen kannattavuuslaskelmien perusteella PtG-laitoksen perustapausten liiketoimintamahdollisuudet ovat huonot. Laskettujen herkkyystarkastelujen perusteella havaittiin, että investointikulut, laitoksen ajoaika ja lisätulot hapesta ja lämmöstä ovat kannattavuuden kannalta kriittisimmät menestystekijät.

Large scale solar power plant flat roof and carport installation in Finland

This work focuses on the 159.5 kW solar photovoltaic power plant project installed at the Lappeenranta University of Technology in 2013 as an example of what a solar plant project could be in Finland. The project consists of a two row carport and a flat roof installation on the roof of the university laboratories. The purpose of this project is not only its obvious energy savings potential but also to serve as research and teaching laboratory tool. By 2013, there were not many large scale solar power plants in Finland. For this reason, the installation and data experience from the solar power plant at LUT has brought valuable information for similar projects in northern countries. This work includes a first part for the design and acquisition of the project to continue explaining about the components and their installation. At the end, energy produced by this solar power plant is studied and calculated to find out some relevant economical results. For this, the radiation arriving to southern Finland, the losses of the system in cold weather and the impact of snow among other aspects are taken into account.

Improved Loaded Quality Factor of Cavity Resonators with Cross lris Coupling

The performance of circular, rectangular and cross irises for the coupling of microwave power to rectangular waveguide cavity resonators is discussed. For the measurement of complex permittivity of materials using cavity perturbation techniques, rectangular cavities with high Q-factors are required. Compared to the conventional rectangular and circular irises, the cross Iris coupling structure provides very high loaded quality factor for all the resonant frequencies. The proposes cross iris coupling structure enhances the accuracy of complex permittivity measurements.

Short-Term Load Forecast Of A Low Loadfactor Power System For Optimization Of Merit Order Dispatch Using Adaptive Learning Algorithm

Short term load forecasting is one of the key inputs to optimize the management of power system. Almost 60-65% of revenue expenditure of a distribution company is against power purchase. Cost of power depends on source of power. Hence any optimization strategy involves optimization in scheduling power from various sources. As the scheduling involves many technical and commercial considerations and constraints, the efficiency in scheduling depends on the accuracy of load forecast. Load forecasting is a topic much visited in research world and a number of papers using different techniques are already presented. The accuracy of forecast for the purpose of merit order dispatch decisions depends on the extent of the permissible variation in generation limits. For a system with low load factor, the peak and the off peak trough are prominent and the forecast should be able to identify these points to more accuracy rather than minimizing the error in the energy content. In this paper an attempt is made to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with supervised learning based approach to make short term load forecasting for a power system with comparatively low load factor. Such power systems are usual in tropical areas with concentrated rainy season for a considerable period of the year

Unusual voltage sag event detection in power systems

Three multivariate statistical tools (principal component analysis, factor analysis, analysis discriminant) have been tested to characterize and model the sags registered in distribution substations. Those models use several features to represent the magnitude, duration and unbalanced grade of sags. They have been obtained from voltage and current waveforms. The techniques are tested and compared using 69 registers of sags. The advantages and drawbacks of each technique are listed

La debilidad del Estado como factor explicativo de los conflictos armados en África subsahariana en el período de la pos Guerra Fría

La presente disertación aborda la correlación circular entre la debilidad estatal y el surgimiento de los actores armados que postulan autores como Robert Rotberg o William Reno, para el análisis de los conflictos armados en África Subsahariana en el período de la pos Guerra Fría. Durante este período, en esta región diferentes conflictos estallaron —entre esos Liberia, Sierra Leona, Somalia, Ruanda o Sudán— además de ser una de las partes del mundo que sufre por el elevado nivel de precariedad estatal. Este trabajo desarrolla entonces ambos aspectos de dicha correlación circular, a saber la incidencia de la debilidad estatal en el surgimiento de los grupos armados y, en segundo lugar, el fomento de la debilidad por parte de los grupos armados ¬–denominados por varios autores como señores de la Guerra–. Por último, esta disertación sugiere unas limitaciones al alcance explicativo de la relación interactiva entre la debilidad del Estado y los actores armados, para finalmente discutir el postulado planteado por algunos autores como Béatrice Hibou o Roland Marchal, que propone que la existencia de grupos armados pueden llevar al redespliegue del poder estatal en el largo plazo.

Georgia y Rusia: la identidad como factor delimitador de los intereses y políticas de ambos estados con sus efectos en la Guerra de Osetia del Sur en 2008

Esta monografía se centra en evaluar mediante un enfoque constructivista, y a partir de una serie de hechos históricos, cómo la identidad construida por Rusia y Georgia fue el detonante de la Guerra de Osetia del Sur en 2008. Para tal objetivo, se partirá del supuesto que este conflicto fue el resultado de las diferencias entre ambos actores que desarrollaron una serie de políticas antagónicas, enmarcadas en una cultura de anarquía hobbesiana la cual se configuró tras la Revolución de las Rosas y la posterior llegada de Mijaíl Saakashvili al poder, puesto que Georgia se convertiría en el principal aliado de occidente en el Cáucaso, basado en un rol anti ruso y disidente de la influencia del Kremlin en la zona, divergiendo con el liderazgo de Rusia el cual se fundamenta en una identidad construida a raíz de su pasado imperial y hegemónico.

Life cycle analysis of UK coal fired power plants

This paper examines the life cycle GHG emissions from existing UK pulverized coal power plants. The life cycle of the electricity Generation plant includes construction, operation and decommissioning. The operation phase is extended to upstream and downstream processes. Upstream processes include the mining and transport of coal including methane leakage and the production and transport of limestone and ammonia, which are necessary for flue gas clean up. Downstream processes, on the other hand, include waste disposal and the recovery of land used for surface mining. The methodology used is material based process analysis that allows calculation of the total emissions for each process involved. A simple model for predicting the energy and material requirements of the power plant is developed. Preliminary calculations reveal that for a typical UK coal fired plant, the life cycle emissions amount to 990 g CO2-e/kWh of electricity generated, which compares well with previous UK studies. The majority of these emissions result from direct fuel combustion (882 g/kWh 89%) with methane leakage from mining operations accounting for 60% of indirect emissions. In total, mining operations (including methane leakage) account for 67.4% of indirect emissions, while limestone and other material production and transport account for 31.5%. The methodology developed is also applied to a typical IGCC power plant. It is found that IGCC life cycle emissions are 15% less than those from PC power plants. Furthermore, upon investigating the influence of power plant parameters on life cycle emissions, it is determined that, while the effect of changing the load factor is negligible, increasing efficiency from 35% to 38% can reduce emissions by 7.6%. The current study is funded by the UK National Environment Research Council (NERC) and is undertaken as part of the UK Carbon Capture and Storage Consortium (UKCCSC). Future work will investigate the life cycle emissions from other power generation technologies with and without carbon capture and storage. The current paper reveals that it might be possible that, when CCS is employed. the emissions during generation decrease to a level where the emissions from upstream processes (i.e. coal production and transport) become dominant, and so, the life cycle efficiency of the CCS system can be significantly reduced. The location of coal, coal composition and mining method are important in determining the overall impacts. In addition to studying the net emissions from CCS systems, future work will also investigate the feasibility and technoeconomics of these systems as a means of carbon abatement.

Life cycle GHG assessment of fossil fuel power plants with carbon capture and storage

The evaluation of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from power generation with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a critical factor in energy and policy analysis. The current paper examines life cycle emissions from three types of fossil-fuel-based power plants, namely supercritical pulverized coal (super-PC), natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) and integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), with and without CCS. Results show that, for a 90% CO2 capture efficiency, life cycle GHG emissions are reduced by 75-84% depending on what technology is used. With GHG emissions less than 170 g/kWh, IGCC technology is found to be favorable to NGCC with CCS. Sensitivity analysis reveals that, for coal power plants, varying the CO2 capture efficiency and the coal transport distance has a more pronounced effect on life cycle GHG emissions than changing the length of CO2 transport pipeline. Finally, it is concluded from the current study that while the global warming potential is reduced when MEA-based CO2 capture is employed, the increase in other air pollutants such as NOx and NH3 leads to higher eutrophication and acidification potentials.