Fatalism, superstition, religion, and culture : road user beliefs and behaviour in Pakistan

Road traffic crashes have emerged as a major health problem around the world. Road crash fatalities and injuries have been reduced significantly in developed countries, but they are still an issue in low and middle-income countries. The World Health Organization (WHO, 2009) estimates that the death toll from road crashes in low- and middle-income nations is more than 1 million people per year, or about 90% of the global road toll, even though these countries only account for 48% of the world's vehicles. Furthermore, it is estimated that approximately 265,000 people die every year in road crashes in South Asian countries and Pakistan stands out with 41,494 approximately deaths per year. Pakistan has the highest rate of fatalities per 100,000 population in the region and its road crash fatality rate of 25.3 per 100,000 population is more than three times that of Australia's. High numbers of road crashes not only cause pain and suffering to the population at large, but are also a serious drain on the country's economy, which Pakistan can ill-afford. Most studies identify human factors as the main set of contributing factors to road crashes, well ahead of road environment and vehicle factors. In developing countries especially, attention and resources are required in order to improve things such as vehicle roadworthiness and poor road infrastructure. However, attention to human factors is also critical. Human factors which contribute to crashes include high risk behaviours like speeding and drink driving, and neglect of protective behaviours such as helmet wearing and seat belt wearing. Much research has been devoted to the attitudes, beliefs and perceptions which contribute to these behaviours and omissions, in order to develop interventions aimed at increasing safer road use behaviours and thereby reducing crashes. However, less progress has been made in addressing human factors contributing to crashes in developing countries as compared to the many improvements in road environments and vehicle standards, and this is especially true of fatalistic beliefs and behaviours. This is a significant omission, since in different cultures in developing countries there are strong worldviews in which predestination persists as a central idea, i.e. that one's life (and death) and other events have been mapped out and are predetermined. Fatalism refers to a particular way in which people regard the events that occur in their lives, usually expressed as a belief that an individual does not have personal control over circumstances and that their lives are determined through a divine or powerful external agency (Hazen & Ehiri, 2006). These views are at odds with the dominant themes of modern health promotion movements, and present significant challenges for health advocates who aim to avert road crashes and diminish their consequences. The limited literature on fatalism reveals that it is not a simple concept, with religion, culture, superstition, experience, education and degree of perceived control of one's life all being implicated in accounts of fatalism. One distinction in the literature that seems promising is the distinction between empirical and theological fatalism, although there are areas of uncertainty about how well-defined the distinction between these types of fatalism is. Research into road safety in Pakistan is scarce, as is the case for other South Asian countries. From the review of the literature conducted, it is clear that the descriptions given of the different belief systems in developing countries including Pakistan are not entirely helpful for health promotion purposes and that further research is warranted on the influence of fatalism, superstition and other related beliefs in road safety. Based on the information available, a conceptual framework is developed as a means of structuring and focusing the research and analysis. The framework is focused on the influence of fatalism, superstition, religion and culture on beliefs about crashes and road user behaviour. Accordingly, this research aims to provide an understanding of the operation of fatalism and related beliefs in Pakistan to assist in the development and implementation of effective and culturally appropriate interventions. The research examines the influence of fatalism, superstition, religious and cultural beliefs on risky road use in Pakistan and is guided by three research questions: 1. What are the perceptions of road crash causation in Pakistan, in particular the role of fatalism, superstition, religious and cultural beliefs? 2. How does fatalism, superstition, and religious and cultural beliefs influence road user behaviour in Pakistan? 3. Do fatalism, superstition, and religious and cultural beliefs work as obstacles to road safety interventions in Pakistan? To address these questions, a qualitative research methodology was developed. The research focused on gathering data through individual in-depth interviewing using a semi-structured interview format. A sample of 30 participants was interviewed in Pakistan in the cities of Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The participants included policy makers (with responsibility for traffic law), experienced police officers, religious orators, professional drivers (truck, bus and taxi) and general drivers selected through a combination of purposive, criterion and snowball sampling. The transcripts were translated from Urdu and analysed using a thematic analysis approach guided by the conceptual framework. The findings were divided into four areas: attribution of crash causation to fatalism; attribution of road crashes to beliefs about superstition and malicious acts; beliefs about road crash causation linked to popular concepts of religion; and implications for behaviour, safety and enforcement. Fatalism was almost universally evident, and expressed in a number of ways. Fate was used to rationalise fatal crashes using the argument that the people killed were destined to die that day, one way or another. Related to this was the sense of either not being fully in control of the vehicle, or not needing to take safety precautions, because crashes were predestined anyway. A variety of superstitious-based crash attributions and coping methods to deal with road crashes were also found, such as belief in the role of the evil eye in contributing to road crashes and the use of black magic by rivals or enemies as a crash cause. There were also beliefs related to popular conceptions of religion, such as the role of crashes as a test of life or a source of martyrdom. However, superstitions did not appear to be an alternative to religious beliefs. Fate appeared as the 'default attribution' for a crash when all other explanations failed to account for the incident. This pervasive belief was utilised to justify risky road use behaviour and to resist messages about preventive measures. There was a strong religious underpinning to the statement of fatalistic beliefs (this reflects popular conceptions of Islam rather than scholarly interpretations), but also an overlap with superstitious and other culturally and religious-based beliefs which have longer-standing roots in Pakistani culture. A particular issue which is explored in more detail is the way in which these beliefs and their interpretation within Pakistani society contributed to poor police reporting of crashes. The pervasive nature of fatalistic beliefs in Pakistan affects road user behaviour by supporting continued risk taking behaviour on the road, and by interfering with public health messages about behaviours which would reduce the risk of traffic crashes. The widespread influence of these beliefs on the ways that people respond to traffic crashes and the death of family members contribute to low crash reporting rates and to a system which appears difficult to change. Fate also appeared to be a major contributing factor to non-reporting of road crashes. There also appeared to be a relationship between police enforcement and (lack of) awareness of road rules. It also appears likely that beliefs can influence police work, especially in the case of road crash investigation and the development of strategies. It is anticipated that the findings could be used as a blueprint for the design of interventions aimed at influencing broad-spectrum health attitudes and practices among the communities where fatalism is prevalent. The findings have also identified aspects of beliefs that have complex social implications when designing and piloting driver intervention strategies. By understanding attitudes and behaviours related to fatalism, superstition and other related concepts, it should be possible to improve the education of general road users, such that they are less likely to attribute road crashes to chance, fate, or superstition. This study also underscores the understanding of this issue in high echelons of society (e.g., policy makers, senior police officers) as their role is vital in dispelling road users' misconceptions about the risks of road crashes. The promotion of an evidence or scientifically-based approach to road user behaviour and road safety is recommended, along with improved professional education for police and policy makers.

The magic of numbers and the amazing disappearing act : the politics of counting youth homelessness

No-one wants to see young people who are no longer able to stay at home with their parents living in situations that are neither stable nor safe. Most Australians also appreciate that youth homelessness is typically a result of factors beyond the control of young people like poverty, lack of affordable housing, parental divorce or separation, family conflict and violence, sexual abuse, or mental health problems.1 Since the Burdekin Report of 1989 first put the issue on the national agenda, youth homelessness has been a point of some political sensitivity as the numbers of young homeless stayed stubbornly high through the 1990s and into the 2000s.

Modeling and detection of complex attacks

A complex attack is a sequence of temporally and spatially separated legal and illegal actions each of which can be detected by various IDS but as a whole they constitute a powerful attack. IDS fall short of detecting and modeling complex attacks therefore new methods are required. This paper presents a formal methodology for modeling and detection of complex attacks in three phases: (1) we extend basic attack tree (AT) approach to capture temporal dependencies between components and expiration of an attack, (2) using enhanced AT we build a tree automaton which accepts a sequence of actions from input message streams from various sources if there is a traversal of an AT from leaves to root, and (3) we show how to construct an enhanced parallel automaton that has each tree automaton as a subroutine. We use simulation to test our methods, and provide a case study of representing attacks in WLANs.

A review of the Ustilago-Sporisorium-Macalpinomyces complex

The fungal genera Ustilago, Sporisorium and Macalpinomyces represent an unresolved complex. Taxa within the complex often possess characters that occur in more than one genus, creating uncertainty for species placement. Previous studies have indicated that the genera cannot be separated by morphology alone. Here we chronologically review the history of the Ustilago-Sporisorium-Macalpinomyces complex, argue for its resolution and suggest methods to accomplish a stable taxonomy. A combined molecular and morphological approach is required to identify synapomorphic characters that underpin a new classification. Ustilago, Sporisorium and Macalpinomyces require explicit re-description and new genera, based on monophyletic groups, are needed to accommodate taxa that no longer fit the emended descriptions. A resolved classification will end the taxonomic confusion that surrounds generic placement of these smut fungi.

Preparing citizens for a complex world : the grand challenge of teaching socio-scientific issues in science education

The dawn of the twenty-first century encouraged a number of scientific and technological organisations to identify what they saw as ‘Grand Challenges and Opportunities’. Issues of environment and health featured very prominently in these quite short lists, as can be seen from a sample of these challenges in Table 1. Indeed, the first two lists of challenges in Table 1 were identified as for the environment and for health, respectively.

Soral synapomorphies are significant for the systematics of the Ustilago-Sporisorium-Macalpinomyces complex (Ustilaginaceae)

The genera Ustilago, Sporisorium and Macalpinomyces are a polyphyletic complex of plant pathogenic fungi. The four main morphological characters used to define these genera have been considered homoplasious and not useful for resolving the complex. This study re-evaluates character homology and discusses the use of these characters for defining monophyletic groups recovered from a reconstructed phylogeny using four nuclear loci. Generic delimitation of smut fungi based on their hosts is also discussed as a means for identifying genera within this group. Morphological characters and host specificity can be used to circumscribe genera within the Ustilago-Sporisorium-Macalpinomyces complex.

Update on complex nonpharmacological interventions for breathlessness

Purpose of review: The study provides a review of current evidence about the role of complex nonpharmacological strategies in managing the multidimensional components of the breathlessness experience for individuals with life-limiting conditions. Recent findings: Evidence continues to demonstrate the significant impact of breathlessness on patients’ quality of life, day-to-day activity, and physical and psychosocial functioning. Recent evidence also confirms that patients draw on a number of self-initiated actions to cope with breathlessness, although many do not use strategies that are supported by a growing body of evidence from randomized controlled trials. Current literature supports the use of multicomponent, nonpharmacological interventions comprising strategies to improve breathing efficiency and reducing psychological distress to manage breathlessness. However trials of these approaches have mostly been conducted among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or lung cancer, and few studies have investigated the benefits of nonpharmacological for patients in later stages of disease. Further investigation of interventions is required across a broader range of chronic life-limiting conditions. Addressing breathlessness and its co-occurring symptoms (symptom clusters) is also an area for future enquiry. Summary: The experience of breathlessness and strategies adopted by patients to manage the experience highlight the importance of multidimensional approaches to improve outcomes for patients with life-limiting conditions. There is good evidence to support the role of multicomponent, nonpharmacological interventions in reducing breathlessness for patients with COPD and lung cancer, although further studies are required to understand the particular clinical contexts in which such interventions are appropriate.

Approaches to designing for older adults' intuitive interaction with complex devices

Many older people have difficulties using modern consumer products due to increased product complexity both in terms of functionality and interface design. Previous research has shown that older people have more difficulty in using complex devices intuitively when compared to the younger. Furthermore, increased life expectancy and a falling birth rate have been catalysts for changes in world demographics over the past two decades. This trend also suggests a proportional increase of older people in the work-force. This realisation has led to research on the effective use of technology by older populations in an effort to engage them more productively and to assist them in leading independent lives. Ironically, not enough attention has been paid to the development of interaction design strategies that would actually enable older users to better exploit new technologies. Previous research suggests that if products are designed to reflect people's prior knowledge, they will appear intuitive to use. Since intuitive interfaces utilise domain-specific prior knowledge of users, they require minimal learning for effective interaction. However, older people are very diverse in their capabilities and domain-specific prior knowledge. In addition, ageing also slows down the process of acquiring new knowledge. Keeping these suggestions and limitations in view, the aim of this study was set to investigate possible approaches to developing interfaces that facilitate their intuitive use by older people. In this quest to develop intuitive interfaces for older people, two experiments were conducted that systematically investigated redundancy (the use of both text and icons) in interface design, complexity of interface structure (nested versus flat), and personal user factors such as cognitive abilities, perceived self-efficacy and technology anxiety. All of these factors could interfere with intuitive use. The results from the first experiment suggest that, contrary to what was hypothesised, older people (65+ years) completed the tasks on the text only based interface design faster than on the redundant interface design. The outcome of the second experiment showed that, as expected, older people took more time on a nested interface. However, they did not make significantly more errors compared with younger age groups. Contrary to what was expected, older age groups also did better under anxious conditions. The findings of this study also suggest that older age groups are more heterogeneous in their capabilities and their intuitive use of contemporary technological devices is mediated more by domain-specific technology prior knowledge and by their cognitive abilities, than chronological age. This makes it extremely difficult to develop product interfaces that are entirely intuitive to use. However, by keeping in view the cognitive limitations of older people when interfaces are developed, and using simple text-based interfaces with flat interface structure, would help them intuitively learn and use complex technological products successfully during early encounter with a product. These findings indicate that it might be more pragmatic if interfaces are designed for intuitive learning rather than for intuitive use. Based on this research and the existing literature, a model for adaptable interface design as a strategy for developing intuitively learnable product interfaces was proposed. An adaptable interface can initially use a simple text only interface to help older users to learn and successfully use the new system. Over time, this can be progressively changed to a symbols-based nested interface for more efficient and intuitive use.

The molecular structure of the phosphate mineral chalcosiderite – a vibrational spectroscopic study

The mineral chalcosiderite with formula CuFe6(PO4)4(OH)8⋅4H2O has been studied by Raman spectroscopy and by infrared spectroscopy. A comparison of the chalcosiderite spectra is made with the spectra of turquoise. The spectra of the mineral samples are very similar in the 1200–900 cm−1 region but strong differences are observed in the 900–100 cm−1 region. The effect of substitution of Fe for Al in chalcosiderite shifts the bands to lower wave numbers. Factor group analysis (FGA) implies four OH stretching vibrations for both the water and hydroxyl units. Two bands ascribed to water are observed at 3276 and 3072 cm−1. Three hydroxyl stretching vibrations are observed. Calculations using a Libowitzky type formula show that the hydrogen bond distances of the water molecules are 2.745 and 2.812 Å which are considerably shorter than the values for the hydroxyl units 2.896, 2.917 and 2.978 Å. Two phosphate stretching vibrations at 1042 and 1062 cm−1 in line with the two independent phosphate units in the structure of chalcosiderite. Three bands are observed at 1102, 1159 and 1194 cm−1 assigned to the phosphate antisymmetric stretching vibrations. FGA predicts six bands but only three are observed due to accidental degeneracy. Both the ν2 and ν4 bending regions are complex. Four Raman bands observed at 536, 580, 598 and 636 cm−1 are assigned to the ν4 bending modes. Raman bands at 415, 420, 475 and 484 cm−1are assigned to the phosphate ν2 bending modes. Vibrational spectroscopy enables aspects of the molecular structure of chalcosiderite to be assessed.

Image-based flow visualisation (IBFV) to enhance interpretation of complex flow patterns within a shallow tidal barrier estuary

We applied a texture-based flow visualisation technique to a numerical hydrodynamic model of the Pumicestone Passage in southeast Queensland, Australia. The quality of the visualisations using our flow visualisation tool, are compared with animations generated using more traditional drogue release plot and velocity contour and vector techniques. The texture-based method is found to be far more effective in visualising advective flow within the model domain. In some instances, it also makes it easier for the researcher to identify specific hydrodynamic features within the complex flow regimes of this shallow tidal barrier estuary as compared with the direct and geometric based methods.

A new model to study healing of a complex femur fracture with concurrent soft tissue injury in sheep

High energy bone fractures resulting from impact trauma are often accompanied by subcutaneous soft tissue injuries, even if the skin remains intact. There is evidence that such closed soft tissue injuries affect the healing of bone fractures, and vice versa. Despite this knowledge, most impact trauma studies in animals have focussed on bone fractures or soft tissue trauma in isolation. However, given the simultaneous impact on both tissues a better understanding of the interaction between these two injuries is necessary to optimise clinical treatment. The aim of this study was therefore to develop a new experimental model and characterise, for the first time, the healing of a complex fracture with concurrent closed soft tissue trauma in sheep. A pendulum impact device was designed to deliver a defined and standardised impact to the distal thigh of sheep, causing a reproducible contusion injury to the subcutaneous soft tissues. In a subsequent procedure, a reproducible femoral butterfly fracture (AO C3-type) was created at the sheep’s femur, which was initially stabilised for 5 days by an external fixator construct to allow for soft tissue swelling to recede, and ultimately in a bridging construct using locking plates. The combined injuries were applied to twelve sheep and the healing observed for four or eight weeks (six animals per group) until sacrifice. The pendulum impact led to a moderate to severe circumferential soft tissue injury with significant bruising, haematomas and partial muscle disruptions. Posttraumatic measurements showed elevated intra-compartmental pressure and circulatory tissue breakdown markers, with recovery to normal, pre-injury values within four days. Clinically, no neurovascular deficiencies were observed. Bi-weekly radiological analysis of the healing fractures showed progressive callus healing over time, with the average number of callus bridges increasing from 0.4 at two weeks to 4.2 at eight weeks. Biomechanical testing after sacrifice showed increasing torsional stiffness between four and eight weeks healing time from 10% to 100%, and increasing ultimate torsional strength from 10% to 64% (relative to the contralateral control limb). Our results demonstrate the robust healing of a complex femur fracture in the presence of a severe soft tissue contusion injury in sheep and demonstrate the establishment of a clinically relevant experimental model, for research aimed at improving the treatment of bone fractures accompanied by closed soft tissue injuries.

Metabolic and ecological study of environmental pentose utilizing bacteria (E-PUB)

Lignocellulosic materials, such as sugar cane bagasse, a waste product of the sugarcane processing industry, agricultural residues and herbaceous crops, may serve as an abundant and comparatively cheap feedstock for largescale industrial fermentation, resulting in the production of marketable end-products. However, the complex structure of lignocellulosic materials, the presence of various hexose and pentose sugars in the hemicellulose component, and the presence of various compounds that inhibit the organisms selected for the fermentation process, all constitute barriers that add to the production costs and make full scale industrial production economically less feasible. The work presented in this thesis was conducted in order to screen microorganisms for ability to utilize pentose sugars derived from the sugar mill industrial waste. A large number of individual bacterial strains were investigated from hemi-cellulose rich material collected at the Proserpine and Maryborough sugar mills, notably soil samples from the mill sites. The research conducted to isolation of six pentose-capable Gram-positive organisms from the actinomycetes group by using pentose as a sole carbon source in the cultivation process. The isolates were identified as Corynebacterium glutamicum, Actinomyces odontolyticus, Nocardia elegans, and Propionibacterium freudenreichii all of which were isolated from the hemicellulose-enriched soil. Pentose degrading microbes are very rare in the environment, so this was a significant discovery. Previous research indicated that microbes could degrade pentose after genetic modification but the microbes discovered in this research were able to naturally utilize pentose. Six isolates, identified as four different genera, were investigated for their ability to utilize single sugars as substrates (glucose, xylose, arabinose or ribose), and also dual sugars as substrates (a hexose plus a pentose). The results demonstrated that C. glutamicum, A. odontolyticus, N. elegans, and P. freudenreichii were pentose-capable (able to grow using xylose or other pentose sugar), and also showed diauxie growth characteristics during the dual-sugar (glucose, in combination with xylose, arabinose or ribose) carbon source tests. In addition, it was shown that the isolates displayed very small differences in growth rates when grown on dual sugars as compared to single sugars, whether pentose or hexose in nature. The anabolic characteristics of C. glutamicum, A. odontolyticus, N. elegans and P. freudenreichii were subsequently investigated by qualitative analysis of their end-products, using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). All of the organisms produced arginine and cysteine after utilization of the pentose substrates alone. In addition, P. freudenreichii produced alanine and glycine. The end-product profile arising from culture with dual carbon sources was also tested. Interestingly, this time the product was different. All of them produced the amino acid glycine, when grown on a combination substrate-mix of glucose with xylose, and also glucose with arabinose. Only N. elegans was able to break down ribose, either singly or in combination with glucose, and the end-product of metabolism of the glucose plus ribose substrate combination was glutamic acid. The ecological analysis of microbial abundance in sugar mill waste was performed using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) and also the metagenomic microarray PhyloChip method. Eleven solid samples and seven liquid samples were investigated. A very complex bacterial ecosystem was demonstrated in the seven liquid samples after testing with the PhyloChip method. It was also shown that bagasse leachate was the most different, compared to all of the other samples, by virtue of its richness in variety of taxa and the complexity of its bacterial community. The bacterial community in solid samples from Proserpine, Mackay and Maryborough sugar mills showed huge diversity. The information found from 16S rDNA sequencing results was that the bacterial genera Brevibacillus, Rhodospirillaceae, Bacillus, Vibrio and Pseudomonas were present in greatest abundance. In addition, Corynebacterium was also found in the soil samples. The metagenomic studies of the sugar mill samples demonstrate two important outcomes: firstly that the bagasse leachate, as potentially the most pentose-rich sample tested, had the most complex and diverse bacterial community; and secondly that the pentose-capable isolates that were initially discovered at the beginning of this study, were not amongst the most abundant taxonomic groups discovered in the sugar mill samples, and in fact were, as suspected, very rare. As a bioprospecting exercise, therefore, the study has discovered organisms that are naturally present, but in very small numbers, in the appropriate natural environment. This has implications for the industrial application of E-PUB, in that a seeding process using a starter culture will be necessary for industrial purposes, rather than simply assuming that natural fermentation might occur.

Factors affecting timely completion of a PhD : a complex systems approach

Completing a PhD on time is a complex process, influenced by many interacting factors. In this paper we take a Bayesian Network approach to analyzing the factors perceived to be important in achieving this aim. Focusing on a single research group in Mathematical Sciences, we develop a conceptual model to describe the factors considered to be important to students and then quantify the network based on five individual perspectives: the students, a supervisor and a university research students centre manager. The resultant network comprised 37 factors and 40 connections, with an overall probability of timely completion of between 0.6 and 0.8. Across all participants, the four factors that were considered to most directly influence timely completion were personal aspects, the research environment, the research project, and incoming skills.

Damage diagnosis for complex steel truss bridges using multi-layer genetic algorithm

Considerate amount of research has proposed optimization-based approaches employing various vibration parameters for structural damage diagnosis. The damage detection by these methods is in fact a result of updating the analytical structural model in line with the current physical model. The feasibility of these approaches has been proven. But most of the verification has been done on simple structures, such as beams or plates. In the application on a complex structure, like steel truss bridges, a traditional optimization process will cost massive computational resources and lengthy convergence. This study presents a multi-layer genetic algorithm (ML-GA) to overcome the problem. Unlike the tedious convergence process in a conventional damage optimization process, in each layer, the proposed algorithm divides the GA’s population into groups with a less number of damage candidates; then, the converged population in each group evolves as an initial population of the next layer, where the groups merge to larger groups. In a damage detection process featuring ML-GA, as parallel computation can be implemented, the optimization performance and computational efficiency can be enhanced. In order to assess the proposed algorithm, the modal strain energy correlation (MSEC) has been considered as the objective function. Several damage scenarios of a complex steel truss bridge’s finite element model have been employed to evaluate the effectiveness and performance of ML-GA, against a conventional GA. In both single- and multiple damage scenarios, the analytical and experimental study shows that the MSEC index has achieved excellent damage indication and efficiency using the proposed ML-GA, whereas the conventional GA only converges at a local solution.