The use of census data for national development planning Focus on the 2010 population and housing census

Includes bibliography.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Saint Lucia

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Saint Lucia to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change in Saint Lucia. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies for each sector was also undertaken using standard evaluation techniques. The key subsectors in agriculture are expected to have mixed impacts under the A2 and B2 scenarios. Banana, fisheries and root crop outputs are expected to fall with climate change, but tree crop and vegetable production are expected to rise. In aggregate, in every decade up to 2050, these sub-sectors combined are expected to experience a gain under climate change with the highest gains under A2. By 2050, the cumulative gain under A2 is calculated as approximately US$389.35 million and approximately US$310.58 million under B2, which represents 17.93% and 14.30% of the 2008 GDP respectively. This result was unexpected and may well be attributed to the unavailability of annual data that would have informed a more robust assessment. Additionally, costs to the agriculture sector due to tropical cyclones were estimated to be $6.9 million and $6.2 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. There are a number of possible adaptation strategies that can be employed by the agriculture sector. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the benefit-cost ratio are: (1) Designing and implementation of holistic water management plans (2) Establishment of systems of food storage and (3) Establishment of early warning systems. Government policy should focus on the development of these adaption options where they are not currently being pursued and strengthen those that have already been initiated, such as the mainstreaming of climate change issues in agricultural policy. The analysis of the health sector placed focus on gastroenteritis, schistosomiasis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococal meningitis, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and malnutrition. The results obtained for the A2 and B2 scenarios demonstrate the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the health system in the future, a factor that will further compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. Specifically, it was determined that the overall Value of Statistical Lives impacts were higher under the A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. A number of adaptation cost assumptions were employed to determine the damage cost estimates using benefit-cost analysis. The benefit-cost analysis suggests that expenditure on monitoring and information provision would be a highly efficient step in managing climate change and subsequent increases in disease incidence. Various locations in the world have developed forecasting systems for dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases that could be mirrored and implemented. Combining such macro-level policies with inexpensive micro-level behavioural changes may have the potential for pre-empting the re-establishment of dengue fever and other vector-borne epidemic cycles in Saint Lucia. Although temperature has the probability of generating significant excess mortality for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, the power of temperature to increase mortality largely depends on the education of the population about the harmful effects of increasing temperatures and on the existing incidence of these two diseases. For these diseases it is also suggested that a mix of macro-level efforts and micro-level behavioural changes can be employed to relieve at least part of the threat that climate change poses to human health. The same principle applies for water and food-borne diseases, with the improvement of sanitation infrastructure complementing the strengthening of individual hygiene habits. The results regarding the tourism sector imply that the tourism climatic index was likely to experience a significant downward shift in Saint Lucia under the A2 as well as the B2 scenario, indicative of deterioration in the suitability of the island for tourism. It is estimated that this shift in tourism features could cost Saint Lucia about 5 times the 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. In addition to changes in climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects on species, ecosystems and landscapes. Two broad areas are: (1) coral reefs, due to their intimate link to tourism, and, (2) land loss, as most hotels tend to lie along the coastline. The damage related to coral reefs was estimated at US$3.4 billion (3.6 times GDP in 2009) under the A2 scenario and US$1.7 billion (1.6 times GDP in 2009) under the B2 scenario. The damage due to land loss arising from sea level rise was estimated at US$3.5 billion (3.7 times GDP) under the A2 scenario and US$3.2 billion (3.4 times GDP) under the B2 scenario. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 9 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. Using benefit-cost analyses 3 options with positive ratios were put forward: (1) increased recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (2) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and, (3) deployment of artificial reefs or other fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit-cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits. These include the employment of an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climate realities.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Coastal and Human Settlements and Health Sectors in Guyana

This report analyses the agriculture, coastal and human settlements and health sectors in Guyana to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Guyana. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help bring the Caribbean sub-region closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining national and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050 (agriculture and health sectors) and 2100 (coastal and human settlements sector). An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on three leading sub-sectors namely: sugar-cane, rice-paddy and fisheries. In estimating costs, the sugar sub-sector is projected to experience losses under A2 between US$ 144 million (at 4% discount rate) and US$300 million (1% rate); comparative statistics for rice are US$795 million and US$1577 million, respectively; while for fisheries, the results show that losses range from US$15 million (4% rate) and US$34 million (1% rate). In general, under the B2 scenarios, there are gains for sugar up to 2030 under all three discount rates while for rice the performance is somewhat better with gains realized under all three discount rates up to 2040. For fisheries, gains are forecasted under all three rates up to 2050, following marginal losses to 2020. In terms of the benefit-cost analysis conducted on selected adaptation measures under the A2 scenario, there were net benefits for all three commodities under all three discount rates. For the sugar-cane sub-sector these are: drainage and irrigation upgrade, purchase of new machinery for planting and harvesting, developing and replanting climate tolerant sugar-cane. The rice-paddy sub-sector will benefit from adaptive strategies, which include maintenance of drainage and irrigation systems, research and development, as well as education and training. Adaptation in the fisheries sub-sector must include measures such as, mangrove development and restoration and public education. The analysis of the coastal and human settlements sector has shown that based upon exposed assets and population, SLR can be classified as having the potential to create catastrophic conditions in Guyana. The main contributing factor is the concentration of socioeconomic infrastructure along the coastline in vulnerable areas.

Online distance mathematics education in Brazil: research, practice and policy

In this article, we address online distance mathematics education research and practice in Brazil, which are relative newcomers to the educational scene. We present the national context of education in Brazil, highlighting the organization of the educational system, and also a summary of national legislation on distance education and an overview of digital inclusion in the country. We outline the potential and relevance of distance education for the Brazilian educational system and show how it could intervene in the system. With respect to research and practice in online mathematics education, we present support for research, examples of studies and highlight different aspects being addressed, including its essential components. In addition, we discuss the synergy between distance education and teacher education, and mathematics distance education and modeling, as well as other initiatives in the national scenario.

Saccharification of Brazilian sisal pulp: evaluating the impact of mercerization on non-hydrolyzed pulp and hydrolysis products

Cultivation of sisal, a plant with a short growth cycle, is highly productive in Brazil. This work is part of extensive research in which sisal is valued. In these studies, sisal fibers are used in the preparation of bio-based composites and in the derivatization of the pulp, including posterior preparation of films. This study aimed to examine the use of sisal pulp in the production of bioethanol, which can potentially be a high efficiency process because of the cellulose content of this fiber. A previous paper addressed the hydrolysis of sisal pulp using sulfuric acid as a catalyst. In the present study, the influence of the mercerization process on the acid hydrolysis of sisal pulp was evaluated. Mercerization was achieved in a 20% wt NaOH solution, and the cellulosic pulp was suspended and vigorously mixed for 1, 2 and 3 h, at 50 A degrees C. The previously characterized mercerized pulps were hydrolyzed (100 A degrees C, 30% H2SO4, v/v), and the results are compared with those obtained for unmercerized pulp (described in a companion paper). The starting sample was characterized by viscometry, alpha-cellulose content, crystallinity index and scanning electron microscopy. During the reactions, aliquots were withdrawn, and the liquor was analyzed by HPLC. The residual pulps (non-hydrolyzed) were also characterized by the techniques described for the initial sample. The results revealed that pretreatment decreases the polyoses content as well as causes a decrease of up to 23% in the crystallinity and up to 21% in the average molar mass of cellulose after 3 h of mercerization. The mercerization process proved to be very important to achieve the final target. Under the same reaction conditions (30% and 100 A degrees C, 6 h), the hydrolysis of mercerized pulp generated yields of up to 50% more glucose. The results of this paper will be compared with the results of subsequent studies obtained using other acids, and enzymes, as catalysts.

Using the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale to Predict Dysphagia in Acute Ischemic Stroke

Background and Purpose: Oropharyngeal dysphagia is a common manifestation in acute stroke. Aspiration resulting from difficulties in swallowing is a symptom that should be considered due to the frequent occurrence of aspiration pneumonia that could influence the patient's recovery as it causes clinical complications and could even lead to the patient's death. The early clinical evaluation of swallowing disorders can help define approaches and avoid oral feeding, which may be detrimental to the patient. This study aimed to create an algorithm to identify patients at risk of developing dysphagia following acute ischemic stroke in order to be able to decide on the safest way of feeding and minimize the complications of stroke using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NHISS). Methods: Clinical assessment of swallowing was performed in 50 patients admitted to the emergency unit of the University Hospital, Faculty of Medicine of Ribeirao Preto, Sao Paulo, Brazil, with a diagnosis of ischemic stroke, within 48 h after the beginning of symptoms. Patients, 25 females and 25 males with a mean age of 64.90 years (range 26-91 years), were evaluated consecutively. An anamnesis was taken before the patient's participation in the study in order to exclude a prior history of deglutition difficulties. For the functional assessment of swallowing, three food consistencies were used, i.e. pasty, liquid and solid. After clinical evaluation, we concluded whether there was dysphagia. For statistical analysis we used the Fisher exact test, verifying the association between the variables. To assess whether the NIHSS score characterizes a risk factor for dysphagia, a receiver operational characteristics curve was constructed to obtain characteristics for sensitivity and specificity. Results: Dysphagia was present in 32% of the patients. The clinical evaluation is a reliable method of detection of swallowing difficulties. However, the predictors of risk for the swallowing function must be balanced, and the level of consciousness and the presence of preexisting comorbidities should be considered. Gender, age and cerebral hemisphere involved were not significantly associated with the presence of dysphagia. NIHSS, Glasgow Coma Scale, and speech and language changes had a statistically significant predictive value for the presence of dysphagia. Conclusions: The NIHSS is highly sensitive (88%) and specific (85%) in detecting dysphagia; a score of 12 may be considered as the cutoff value. The creation of an algorithm to detect dysphagia in acute ischemic stroke appears to be useful in selecting the optimal feeding route while awaiting a specialized evaluation. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel

Impact of Corticosterone Treatment on Spontaneous Seizure Frequency and Epileptiform Activity in Mice with Chronic Epilepsy

Stress is the most commonly reported precipitating factor for seizures in patients with epilepsy. Despite compelling anecdotal evidence for stress-induced seizures, animal models of the phenomena are sparse and possible mechanisms are unclear. Here, we tested the hypothesis that increased levels of the stress-associated hormone corticosterone ( CORT) would increase epileptiform activity and spontaneous seizure frequency in mice rendered epileptic following pilocarpine-induced status epilepticus. We monitored video-EEG activity in pilocarpine-treated mice 24/7 for a period of four or more weeks, during which animals were serially treated with CORT or vehicle. CORT increased the frequency and duration of epileptiform events within the first 24 hours of treatment, and this effect persisted for up to two weeks following termination of CORT injections. Interestingly, vehicle injection produced a transient spike in CORT levels - presumably due to the stress of injection - and a modest but significant increase in epileptiform activity. Neither CORT nor vehicle treatment significantly altered seizure frequency; although a small subset of animals did appear responsive. Taken together, our findings indicate that treatment of epileptic animals with exogenous CORT designed to mimic chronic stress can induce a persistent increase in interictal epileptiform activity.

Applying the National Institute for Clinical Excellence criteria to patients treated with the Genous (TM) Bio-engineered R stent (TM): a sub-study of the e-HEALING (Healthy Endothelial Accelerated Lining Inhibits Neointimal Growth) worldwide registry

The National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines recommend the use of bare-metal stents (BMS) in non-complex lesions with a low risk of restenosis (diameter a parts per thousand yen3 mm and lesion length a parts per thousand currency sign15 mm) and the use of drug-eluting stents (DES) in more complex lesions with a high risk of restenosis (diameter < 3.0 mm or lesion length > 15 mm). However, the guidelines were created based on studies evaluating BMS and DES only. We performed an analysis of patients undergoing non-urgent percutaneous coronary intervention with the novel endothelial cell capturing stent (ECS). The ECS is coated with CD34(+) antibodies that attract circulating endothelial progenitor cells to the stent surface, thereby accelerating the endothelialization of the stented area. We analyzed all patients enrolled in the worldwide e-HEALING registry that met the NICE criteria for either low-risk or high-risk lesions and were treated with a parts per thousand yen1 ECS. The main study outcome was target vessel failure (TVF) at 12-month follow-up, defined as the composite of cardiac death or MI and target vessel revascularization (TVR). A total of 4,241 patients were assessed in the current analysis. At 12-month follow-up, TVF occurred in 7.0% of the patients with low-risk lesions and in 8.8% of the patients with high-risk lesions (p = 0.045). When evaluating the diabetic patients versus the non-diabetic patients per risk group, no significant differences were found in TVF, MI or TVR in either risk group. The ECS shows good clinical outcomes in lesions carrying either a high or a low risk of restenosis according to the NICE guidelines with comparable rates of cardiac death, myocardial infarction, and stent thrombosis. The TVF rate with ECS was slightly higher in patients with high-risk lesions, driven by higher clinically driven TLR. The risk of restenosis with ECS in patients carrying high-risk lesions needs to be carefully considered relative to other risks associated with DES. Furthermore, the presence of diabetes mellitus did not influence the incidence of TVF in either risk group.

Physical activity counseling in primary health care in Brazil: a national study on prevalence and associated factors

Abstract Background The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and correlates of physical activity counseling among physicians and nurses working in primary health care in Brazil. Methods A phone survey was carried out in 2011 with professionals working in primary health care in Brazil. The target sample consisted of 1,600 randomly selected primary care units covering all regions of the country. We successfully interviewed 529 professionals within the sampled units; 182 physicians and 347 nurses. The overall response rate was 49.6%. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate correlates of counseling in the whole sample and separately for physicians and nurses. Results The prevalence of regular physical activity counseling for at least six months was 68.9% (95% CI 64.9; 72.8) and was significantly higher among physicians compared to nurses (p < 0.05). Most professionals (93.2%) interviewed were unfamiliar with current physical activity recommendations for health. In the adjusted analysis, physical activity counseling was more frequent among those who report assessing patient’s physical activity (OR = 2.16; 95% CI 1.41; 3.29), those reporting that lack of time was not a barrier for counseling (OR = 0.62 95% CI 0.42-0.93), those who felt prepared to provide physical activity counseling (OR = 2.34; 95% CI 1.50-3.66), and those working at primary care units offering physical activity programs for patients (OR = 2.06; 95% CI 1.33-3.20). In the stratified analysis, only assessing patient’s physical activity was a significant correlate among physicians whereas assessing patient’s physical activity, feeling prepared to provide counseling and working in units with physical activity interventions were significant correlates among nurses. Conclusions Physicians and nurses deemed physical activity counseling of great importance in primary health care in Brazil. However, in order to increase the quality of counseling and the number of professionals engaging in this activity, these health teams require greater knowledge about physical activity (global recommendations for health) as well as training on the application of instruments for assessing physical activity. Moreover, sufficient time must be allowed during consultations for the counseling process, and physical activity promotion programs should be implemented within the primary health care units.

Ahmedabad | Laboratorio di architettura moderna Il National Institute of Design (1961-68) fra contatti internazionali ed echi della tradizione

Oggetto della ricerca è lo studio del National Institute of Design (NID), progettato da Gautam Sarabhai e sua sorella Gira, ad Ahmedabad, assunta a paradigma del nuovo corso della politica che il Primo Ministro Nehru espresse nei primi decenni del governo postcoloniale. Obiettivo della tesi è di analizzare il fenomeno che unisce modernità e tradizione in architettura. La modernità indiana, infatti, nacque e si sviluppò con i caratteri di un Giano bifronte: da un lato, la politica del Primo Ministro Nehru favorì lo sviluppo dell’industria e della scienza; dall’altro, la visione di Gandhi mirava alla riscoperta del locale, delle tradizioni e dell’artigianato. Questi orientamenti influenzarono l’architettura postcoloniale. Negli anni ‘50 e ’60 Ahmedabad divenne la culla dell’architettura moderna indiana. Kanvinde, i Sarabhai, Correa, Doshi, Raje trovarono qui le condizioni per costruire la propria identità come progettisti e come intellettuali. I motori che resero possibile questo fermento furono principalmente due: una committenza di imprenditori illuminati, desiderosi di modernizzare la città; la presenza ad Ahmedabad, a partire dal 1951, dei maestri dell’architettura moderna, tra cui i più noti furono Le Corbusier e Kahn, invitati da quella stessa committenza, per la quale realizzarono edifici di notevole rilevanza. Ad Ahmedabad si confrontarono con forza entrambe le visioni dell’India moderna. Lo sforzo maggiore degli architetti indiani si espresse nel tentativo di conciliare i due aspetti, quelli che derivavano dalle influenze internazionali e quelli che provenivano dallo spirito della tradizione. Il progetto del NID è uno dei migliori esempi di questo esercizio di sintesi. Esso recupera nella composizione spaziale la lezione di Wright, Le Corbusier, Kahn, Eames ibridandola con elementi della tradizione indiana. Nell’uso sapiente della struttura modulare e a padiglione, della griglia ordinatrice a base quadrata, dell’integrazione costante fra spazi aperti, natura e architettura affiorano nell’edificio del NID echi di una cultura millenaria.

Consensus Report: 2nd European Workshop on Tobacco Use Prevention and Cessation for Oral Health Professionals

Tobacco use has been identified as a major risk factor for oral disorders such as cancer and periodontal disease. Tobacco use cessation (TUC) is associated with the potential for reversal of precancer, enhanced outcomes following periodontal treatment, and better periodontal status compared to patients who continue to smoke. Consequently, helping tobacco users to quit has become a part of both the responsibility of oral health professionals and the general practice of dentistry. TUC should consist of behavioural support, and if accompanied by pharmacotherapy, is more likely to be successful. It is widely accepted that appropriate compensation of TUC counselling would give oral health professionals greater incentives to provide these measures. Therefore, TUC-related compensation should be made accessible to all dental professionals and be in appropriate relation to other therapeutic interventions. International and national associations for oral health professionals are urged to act as advocates to promote population, community and individual initiatives in support of tobacco use prevention and cessation (TUPAC) counselling, including integration in undergraduate and graduate dental curricula. In order to facilitate the adoption of TUPAC strategies by oral health professionals, we propose a level of care model which includes 1) basic care: brief interventions for all patients in the dental practice to identify tobacco users, assess readiness to quit, and request permission to re-address at a subsequent visit, 2) intermediate care: interventions consisting of (brief) motivational interviewing sessions to build on readiness to quit, enlist resources to support change, and to include cessation medications, and 3) advanced care: intensive interventions to develop a detailed quit plan including the use of suitable pharmacotherapy. To ensure that the delivery of effective TUC becomes part of standard care, continuing education courses and updates should be implemented and offered to all oral health professionals on a regular basis.

Osteoporosis and periodontitis in older subjects participating in the Swedish National Survey on Aging and Care (SNAC-Blekinge)

Abstract Objective. We assessed the relationships between (I) ultrasonography calcaneus T-scores (PIXI) and mandibular cortex characteristics on oral panoramic radiographs in older subjects; and (II) osteoporosis and periodontitis. Material and methods. We examined 778 subjects (53% women) aged 59-96 years. Periodontitis was defined by alveolar bone loss assessed from panoramic radiographs. Results. PIXI calcaneus T-values ?-2.5 (osteoporosis) were found in 16.3% of women and in 8.1% of men. PIXI calcaneus T-values <-1.6 (osteoporosis, adjusted) were found in 34.2% of women and in 21.4% of men. The age of the subjects and PIXI T-values were significantly correlated in women (Pearson's r = 0.37, P < 0.001) and men (Pearson's r = 0.19, P < 0.001). Periodontitis was found in 18.7% of subjects defined by alveolar bone level ?5 mm. Subjects with osteoporosis defined by adjusted PIXI T-values had fewer remaining teeth [mean difference 4.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) -1.1 to -6.5, P < 0.001]. The crude odds ratio (OR) of an association between the panoramic assessment of mandibular cortex erosions as a sign of osteoporosis and the adjusted T-value (T-value cut-off <-1.6) was 4.8 (95% CI 3.1-7.2, P < 0.001; Pearson ?(2) = 60.1, P < 0.001). A significant OR between osteoporosis and periodontitis was only found in women for the T-value cut-off ?-2.5 (crude OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1-3.3, P < 0.03). Conclusions. An association between osteoporosis and periodontitis was only confirmed in women. The likelihood that the mandibular cortex index agrees with adjusted PIXI T-values is significant.