Multivariate ARIMA Compositional Time Series Analysis

A compositional time series is obtained when a compositional data vector is observed at different points in time. Inherently, then, a compositional time series is a multivariate time series with important constraints on the variables observed at any instance in time. Although this type of data frequently occurs in situations of real practical interest, a trawl through the statistical literature reveals that research in the field is very much in its infancy and that many theoretical and empirical issues still remain to be addressed. Any appropriate statistical methodology for the analysis of compositional time series must take into account the constraints which are not allowed for by the usual statistical techniques available for analysing multivariate time series. One general approach to analyzing compositional time series consists in the application of an initial transform to break the positive and unit sum constraints, followed by the analysis of the transformed time series using multivariate ARIMA models. In this paper we discuss the use of the additive log-ratio, centred log-ratio and isometric log-ratio transforms. We also present results from an empirical study designed to explore how the selection of the initial transform affects subsequent multivariate ARIMA modelling as well as the quality of the forecasts

Existen diferencias farmacocinéticas y tiempos de despertar entre mujeres y hombres con anestesia total intravenosa

Introducción: La anestesia total intravenosa (TIVA) es ampliamente usada y reportada en la literatura como técnica para disminuir la respuesta a la laringoscopia e intubación, en la inducción y mantenimiento de una adecuada anestesia, además de una mejor estabilidad hemodinámica y recuperación pos anestésica; sin embargo no existen un gran número de estudios que comparen el uso de TIVA, determinando si existen diferencias en el perfil farmacocinético según el género del paciente. Objetivo: Describir diferencias farmacocinéticas y de los tiempos de despertar y salida a la unidad de cuidados pos anestésicos (descarga), según el género; en pacientes que reciben TIVA, con remifentanil y propofol, orientado por Stangraf. Metodología: Estudio observacional analítico de corte transversal, en pacientes llevados a cirugía bajo TIVA en el Hospital Occidente de Kennedy en el periodo de junio de 2013 a Enero de 2014.Usando SPSS versión 20 Windows, se analizaron los datos mediante pruebas Kolmogorov-Smirnov y Shapiro-Wilk y U de Mann Withney. Un valor de p menor 0.05 fue aceptado como estadísticamente significativo. Resultados: Se aplicaron pruebas de normalidad y no se encontraron diferencias estadísticamente significativas entre género. El tiempo de despertar fue 9.36 minutos para mujeres y 11.26 minutos para hombres. Los tiempos de descarga fueron 10.71 minutos para mujeres y 12.82 minutos para hombres. Discusión. El tiempo de despertar y descarga no es diferente entre mujeres y hombres en los pacientes analizados. Se requieren estudios adicionales entre grupos poblacionales de diversas condiciones farmacocineticas para corroborar los datos.

Advances in sequential data assimilation and numerical weather forecasting: an Ensemble Transform Kalman-Bucy Filter, a study on clustering in deterministic Ensemble Square Root Filters, and a test of a new time stepping scheme in an atmospheric model

This dissertation deals with aspects of sequential data assimilation (in particular ensemble Kalman filtering) and numerical weather forecasting. In the first part, the recently formulated Ensemble Kalman-Bucy (EnKBF) filter is revisited. It is shown that the previously used numerical integration scheme fails when the magnitude of the background error covariance grows beyond that of the observational error covariance in the forecast window. Therefore, we present a suitable integration scheme that handles the stiffening of the differential equations involved and doesn’t represent further computational expense. Moreover, a transform-based alternative to the EnKBF is developed: under this scheme, the operations are performed in the ensemble space instead of in the state space. Advantages of this formulation are explained. For the first time, the EnKBF is implemented in an atmospheric model. The second part of this work deals with ensemble clustering, a phenomenon that arises when performing data assimilation using of deterministic ensemble square root filters in highly nonlinear forecast models. Namely, an M-member ensemble detaches into an outlier and a cluster of M-1 members. Previous works may suggest that this issue represents a failure of EnSRFs; this work dispels that notion. It is shown that ensemble clustering can be reverted also due to nonlinear processes, in particular the alternation between nonlinear expansion and compression of the ensemble for different regions of the attractor. Some EnSRFs that use random rotations have been developed to overcome this issue; these formulations are analyzed and their advantages and disadvantages with respect to common EnSRFs are discussed. The third and last part contains the implementation of the Robert-Asselin-Williams (RAW) filter in an atmospheric model. The RAW filter is an improvement to the widely popular Robert-Asselin filter that successfully suppresses spurious computational waves while avoiding any distortion in the mean value of the function. Using statistical significance tests both at the local and field level, it is shown that the climatology of the SPEEDY model is not modified by the changed time stepping scheme; hence, no retuning of the parameterizations is required. It is found the accuracy of the medium-term forecasts is increased by using the RAW filter.

Evaluating multivariate forecast densities: a comparison of two approaches

We consider methods of evaluating multivariate density forecasts. A recently proposed method is found to lack power when the correlation structure is mis-specified. Tests that have good power to detect mis-specifications of this sort are described. We also consider the properties of the tests in the presence of more general mis-specifications.

Apical negative pressure irrigation versus conventional irrigation plus triantibiotic intracanal dressing on root canal disinfection in dog teeth

Objective. The aim of this study was to compare in vivo the efficacy of 2 root canal disinfection techniques (apical negative pressure irrigation versus apical positive pressure irrigation plus triantibiotic intracanal dressing) in immature dog teeth with apical periodontitis. Study design. Two groups of root canals with pulp necrosis and apical periodontitis were evaluated according to the disinfection technique: group 1: apical negative pressure irrigation (EndoVac system); and group 2: apical positive pressure irrigation (conventional irrigation) plus triantibiotic intracanal dressing. The first sample (S1) was collected after lesions were radiographically visible, and the second sample (S2) was collected after apical negative pressure irrigation (group 1) or conventional irrigation/triantibiotic dressing (group 2). All samples were seeded in a culture medium for anaerobic bacteria. Colony-forming unit counts were analyzed statistically by the Mann-Whitney test (alpha = .05). Results. Microorganisms were present in 100% of canals of both groups in S1. In S2, microorganisms were absent in 88.6% of group 1`s canals and 78.28% of group 2`s canals. There was no significant difference between the groups in either S1 (P = .0963) or S2 (P = .0566). There was significant (P < .05) bacterial reduction from S1 to S2 in both groups. Conclusion. In immature teeth with apical periodontitis, use of the EndoVac system can be considered to be a promising disinfection protocol, because it provided similar bacterial reduction to that of apical positive pressure irrigation (conventional irrigation) plus intracanal dressing with the triantibiotic paste, and the use of intracanal antibiotics might not be necessary. (Oral Surg Oral Med Oral Pathol Oral Radiol Endod 2010;109:e42-e46)

Comparison of Two Rotary Systems in Root Canal Preparation Regarding Disinfection

Introduction: The aim of the present study was to determine the disinfection of preparations carried out by using the Protaper or MTwo system in canals infected with Enterococcus faecalis. Methods: Twenty-eight distobuccal canals of upper molars were used, in which the canals were sterilized after being enlarged to #20 file and then contaminated with an inoculation of a culture of E. faecalis. After the incubation period, bacterial samples were collected and were seeded on plates for analysis of colony-forming units (CFU)/mL. The teeth were divided into 2 groups according to the rotary system used for instrumentation; 2 noninstrumented teeth served as the control group. Then bacterial samples were collected and were seeded on plates for analysis of CFU/mL again. The data obtained were evaluated by the Wilcoxon and Mann-Whitney U tests. Results: Bacterial reduction was 81.94% and 84.29%, respectively, in Pro Taper and Mtwo systems, and there was no statistically significant difference (P > .05). Conclusions: Both systems, Pro Taper and Mtwo, reduced the amount of bacteria in the mechanical disinfection of the root canal system, demonstrating that they are suitable for this purpose. (J Endod 2010;36:1238-1240)

Risk factors for colonisation of newborn infants during an outbreak of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae in an intermediate-risk neonatal unit

We describe a cross-sectional, survey to identify risk factors for colonisation of neonates by extended-spectrum P-Lactamase (ESBL)-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae. This occurred following exposure to a colonised healthcare worker during an outbreak in an intermediate-risk neonatal. unit. In total, 120 neonates admitted consecutively during a three-month period were screened for ESBL-producing K. pneumoniae by rectal swabbing and 27 were identified as colonised. Multivariate analysis showed colonisation to be independently associated with use of antibiotics and absence of breastfeeding. Previous use of antibiotics presented an odds ratio (OR) of 12.3 [95% confidence interval. (Cl): 3.66-41.2, P < 0.001]. The most commonly used antibiotics were penicillin and amikacin. Breastfeeding was associated with reduced risk for colonisation (OR: 0.22; 95% Cl: 0.05-0.99; P = 0.049). Nine isotates recovered during the first stage of the outbreak and 27 isolates from surveillance cultures were typed thereafter by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, revealing six different profiles (A-F). Clones A, C, and E were implicated in the first stage of the outbreak, whereas among the 27 strains recovered from surveillance cultures, all six clones were identified. Clone A was also found on the hand of a nursing auxiliary with onychomycosis. We concluded that prior antimicrobial use predisposed to colonisation. The possible role of breastfeeding as a protective factor needs to be further elucidated. Detection of different genotypes of ESBL-producing K. pneumonioe suggests that dissemination of mobile genetic elements bearing the ESBL gene may have been superimposed on the simple dissemination of a clone during the outbreak. (c) 2008 The Hospital Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of Bayesian Methods for Multivariate Bioequivalence Measures

In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian analysis for bioequivalence data assuming multivariate pharmacokinetic measures. With the introduction of correlation parameters between the pharmacokinetic measures or between the random effects in the bioequivalence models, we observe a good improvement in the bioequivalence results. These results are of great practical interest since they can yield higher accuracy and reliability for the bioequivalence tests, usually assumed by regulatory offices. An example is introduced to illustrate the proposed methodology by comparing the usual univariate bioequivalence methods with multivariate bioequivalence. We also consider some usual existing discrimination Bayesian methods to choose the best model to be used in bioequivalence studies.

Hyperbolic unit groups and quaternion algebras

We classify the quadratic extensions K = Q[root d] and the finite groups G for which the group ring o(K)[G] of G over the ring o(K) of integers of K has the property that the group U(1)(o(K)[G]) of units of augmentation 1 is hyperbolic. We also construct units in the Z-order H(o(K)) of the quaternion algebra H(K) = (-1, -1/K), when it is a division algebra.

Some restriction tests in a new class of regression models for proportions

The main purpose of this work is to study the behaviour of Skovgaard`s [Skovgaard, I.M., 2001. Likelihood asymptotics. Scandinavian journal of Statistics 28, 3-32] adjusted likelihood ratio statistic in testing simple hypothesis in a new class of regression models proposed here. The proposed class of regression models considers Dirichlet distributed observations, and the parameters that index the Dirichlet distributions are related to covariates and unknown regression coefficients. This class is useful for modelling data consisting of multivariate positive observations summing to one and generalizes the beta regression model described in Vasconcellos and Cribari-Neto [Vasconcellos, K.L.P., Cribari-Neto, F., 2005. Improved maximum likelihood estimation in a new class of beta regression models. Brazilian journal of Probability and Statistics 19,13-31]. We show that, for our model, Skovgaard`s adjusted likelihood ratio statistics have a simple compact form that can be easily implemented in standard statistical software. The adjusted statistic is approximately chi-squared distributed with a high degree of accuracy. Some numerical simulations show that the modified test is more reliable in finite samples than the usual likelihood ratio procedure. An empirical application is also presented and discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fine root isotropy in Eucalyptus grandis plantations. Towards the prediction of root length densities from root counts on trench walls

The objectives of the study were to assess changes in fine root anisotropy and specific root lengths throughout the development of Eucalyptus grandis ( W. Hill ex Maiden) plantations and to establish a predictive model of root length density (RLD) from root intercept counts on trench walls. Fine root densities (<1 mm in diameter) were studied in 6-, 12-, 22-, 28-, 54-, 68- and 72-month-old E. grandis plantations established on deep Ferralsols in southern Brazil. Fine root intercepts were counted on 3 faces of 90-198 soil cubes (1 dm(3) in volume) in each stand and fine root lengths (L) were measured inside 576 soil cubes, sampled between the depths of 10 cm and 290 cm. The number of fine root intercepts was counted on one vertical face perpendicular to the planting row (N(t)), one vertical face parallel to the planting row (N(l)) and one horizontal face (N(h)), for each soil cube sampled. An overall isotropy of fine roots was shown by paired Student's t-tests between the numbers of fine roots intersecting each face of soil cubes at most stand ages and soil depths. Specific root lengths decreased with stand age in the upper soil layers and tended to increase in deep soil layers at the end of the rotation. A linear regression established between N(t) and L for all the soil cubes sampled accounted for 36% of the variability of L. Such a regression computed for mean Nt and L values at each sampling depth and stand age explained only 55% of the variability, as a result of large differences in the relationship between L and Nt depending on stand productivity. The equation RLD=1.89*LAI*N(t), where LAI was the stand leaf area index (m(2) m(-2)) and Nt was expressed as the number of root intercepts per cm(2), made it possible to predict accurately (R(2)=0.84) and without bias the mean RLDs (cm cm(-3)) per depth in each stand, for the whole data set of 576 soil cubes sampled between 2 years of age and the end of the rotation.

Binucleate Rhizoctonia sp AG G causing root rot in yacon (Smallanthus sonchifolius) in Brazil

A new rot caused by a binucleate Rhizoctonia sp. affecting the tuberous root cortex of the domesticated yacon (Smallanthus sonchifolius) has been observed in Brazil. Isolates of a binucleate Rhizoctonia sp. were collected from roots with rot symptoms and characterized by the number of nuclei per cell, hyphal anastomosis, RAPD molecular markers, ITS-5.8S rDNA sequence and pathogenicity tests. All isolates had a mean of 1.9-2.2 nuclei per cell and anastomosed with the binucleate Rhizoctonia sp. AG G-tester strain. RAPD analysis was carried out between 11 isolates recovered from yacon and 11 AG (A, Ba, Bb, Bo, C, D, F, G, O, P, Q) standard testers of binucleate Rhizoctonia sp. Genetic similarities of 94.8-100% were observed among isolates of the binucleate Rhizoctonia sp. from yacon and all isolates were genetically more closely related to the AG G tester than other strains according to UPGMA analysis using RAPD markers. Homologies of complete ITS nucleotide sequences were 100% between binucleate isolates of Rhizoctonia sp. from yacon and the AG G tester. According to pathogenicity tests, the isolates caused typical rot symptoms of yacon tubers 90 days after inoculation.

Espectroscopia no infravermelho próximo e métodos de calibração multivariada aplicados à determinação simultânea de parâmetros bioquímicos em plasma sanguíneo

In this work, the quantitative analysis of glucose, triglycerides and cholesterol (total and HDL) in both rat and human blood plasma was performed without any kind of pretreatment of samples, by using near infrared spectroscopy (NIR) combined with multivariate methods. For this purpose, different techniques and algorithms used to pre-process data, to select variables and to build multivariate regression models were compared between each other, such as partial least squares regression (PLS), non linear regression by artificial neural networks, interval partial least squares regression (iPLS), genetic algorithm (GA), successive projections algorithm (SPA), amongst others. Related to the determinations of rat blood plasma samples, the variables selection algorithms showed satisfactory results both for the correlation coefficients (R²) and for the values of root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) for the three analytes, especially for triglycerides and cholesterol-HDL. The RMSEP values for glucose, triglycerides and cholesterol-HDL obtained through the best PLS model were 6.08, 16.07 e 2.03 mg dL-1, respectively. In the other case, for the determinations in human blood plasma, the predictions obtained by the PLS models provided unsatisfactory results with non linear tendency and presence of bias. Then, the ANN regression was applied as an alternative to PLS, considering its ability of modeling data from non linear systems. The root mean square error of monitoring (RMSEM) for glucose, triglycerides and total cholesterol, for the best ANN models, were 13.20, 10.31 e 12.35 mg dL-1, respectively. Statistical tests (F and t) suggest that NIR spectroscopy combined with multivariate regression methods (PLS and ANN) are capable to quantify the analytes (glucose, triglycerides and cholesterol) even when they are present in highly complex biological fluids, such as blood plasma

Eficácia do tratamento não-cirúrgico em indivíduos com mucosite peri-implantar

It has been shown that the development of peri-implant mucositis is associated with biofilm accumulation. It is believed that the therapeutic approaches used in periodontal disease may have a positive effect in the cases of peri-implant disease. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of non-surgical treatment of peri-implant mucositis, with or without the use of chlorhexidine 0,12% in subjects rehabilitated with osseointegrated implants. Thus, patients were randomly divided into test group (chlorhexidine surgical therapy) and control (non-surgical treatment). This therapy consisted of an adaptation of the (Full Mouth scalling and Root Planing) nonoperative protocol FMSRP, but without the use of ultrasound. The visible plaque index (VPI), gingival bleeding index (GBI), probing depth (PD), bleeding on probing (BOP) and keratinized mucosa clinical parameters were evaluated at baseline and at different times after treatment. The data were not normally distributed and the implant was considered the sampling unit. Data were analyzed using Fri edman and Wilcoxon chi-square (=5%), tests using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences 17.0 (SPSS). Thus, 119 implants were evaluated, 61 in the test group and 58 in the control group. The results showed statistically significant differences for the variables: average BTI implants in both groups (p<0,001), mean ISG implants both in the test group (p<0,001), and control (p= 0,006) of implants; PS for the test group (p< 0,001) and control (p = 0,015) and SS (p<0,001) in the two treatment groups. However, there was no statistically significant difference when the groups were compared. The PS and SS variables showed no statistically significant difference in any of independent interest to the study (age, sex, smoking, treatment group, keratinized mucosa at different times, peri-implant biotype, average VPI implants and GBI). Thus, it can be concluded that both the mechanical treatment isolated as its association with chlorhexidine mouthwash 0.12% can be used for the treatment of peri-implant mucositis. Moreover, the condition of oral h ygiene has improved between baseline and six months and the depth and bleeding on probing decreased after three and six months

Biocompatibility in vitro tests of mineral trioxide aggregate and regular and white Portland cements

Mineral trioxide aggregate (MTA) and Portland cement are being used in dentistry as root end-filling materials. However, biocompatibility data concerning genotoxicity and cytotoxicity are needed for complete risk assessment of these compounds. In the present study, genotoxic and cytotoxic effects of MTA and Portland cements were evaluated in vitro using the alkaline single cell gel (comet) assay and trypan blue exclusion test, respectively, on mouse lymphoma cells. The results demonstrated that the single cell gel (comet) assay failed to detect DNA damage after a treatment of cells by MTA and Portland cements for concentrations up to 1000 mu g/ml. Similarly, results showed that none of the compounds tested were cytotoxic. Taken together, these results seem to indicate that MTA and Portland cements are not genotoxins and do not induce cellular death.