Short-term wind power forecast based on cluster analysis and artificial neural networks

[EN]In this paper an architecture for an estimator of short-term wind farm power is proposed. The estimator is made up of a Linear Machine classifier and a set of k Multilayer Perceptrons, training each one for a specific subspace of the input space. The splitting of the input dataset into the k clusters is done using a k-means technique, obtaining the equivalent Linear Machine classifier from the cluster centroids...

Threat analysis of IoT networks using artificial neural network intrusion detection system

The Internet of things (IoT) is still in its infancy and has attracted much interest in many industrial sectors including medical fields, logistics tracking, smart cities and automobiles. However, as a paradigm, it is susceptible to a range of significant intrusion threats. This paper presents a threat analysis of the IoT and uses an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to combat these threats. A multi-level perceptron, a type of supervised ANN, is trained using internet packet traces, then is assessed on its ability to thwart Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS/DoS) attacks. This paper focuses on the classification of normal and threat patterns on an IoT Network. The ANN procedure is validated against a simulated IoT network. The experimental results demonstrate 99.4% accuracy and can successfully detect various DDoS/DoS attacks.

Neural networks and statistical analysis for classification of corneal videokeratography maps based on Zernike coefficients: a quantitative comparison

PURPOSE: The main goal of this study was to develop and compare two different techniques for classification of specific types of corneal shapes when Zernike coefficients are used as inputs. A feed-forward artificial Neural Network (NN) and discriminant analysis (DA) techniques were used. METHODS: The inputs both for the NN and DA were the first 15 standard Zernike coefficients for 80 previously classified corneal elevation data files from an Eyesys System 2000 Videokeratograph (VK), installed at the Departamento de Oftalmologia of the Escola Paulista de Medicina, São Paulo. The NN had 5 output neurons which were associated with 5 typical corneal shapes: keratoconus, with-the-rule astigmatism, against-the-rule astigmatism, "regular" or "normal" shape and post-PRK. RESULTS: The NN and DA responses were statistically analyzed in terms of precision ([true positive+true negative]/total number of cases). Mean overall results for all cases for the NN and DA techniques were, respectively, 94% and 84.8%. CONCLUSION: Although we used a relatively small database, results obtained in the present study indicate that Zernike polynomials as descriptors of corneal shape may be a reliable parameter as input data for diagnostic automation of VK maps, using either NN or DA.

Context-free and context-sensitive dynamics in recurrent neural networks

Continuous-valued recurrent neural networks can learn mechanisms for processing context-free languages. The dynamics of such networks is usually based on damped oscillation around fixed points in state space and requires that the dynamical components are arranged in certain ways. It is shown that qualitatively similar dynamics with similar constraints hold for a(n)b(n)c(n), a context-sensitive language. The additional difficulty with a(n)b(n)c(n), compared with the context-free language a(n)b(n), consists of 'counting up' and 'counting down' letters simultaneously. The network solution is to oscillate in two principal dimensions, one for counting up and one for counting down. This study focuses on the dynamics employed by the sequential cascaded network, in contrast to the simple recurrent network, and the use of backpropagation through time. Found solutions generalize well beyond training data, however, learning is not reliable. The contribution of this study lies in demonstrating how the dynamics in recurrent neural networks that process context-free languages can also be employed in processing some context-sensitive languages (traditionally thought of as requiring additional computation resources). This continuity of mechanism between language classes contributes to our understanding of neural networks in modelling language learning and processing.

Dynamic artificial neural network for electricity market prices forecast

This paper presents an artificial neural network applied to the forecasting of electricity market prices, with the special feature of being dynamic. The dynamism is verified at two different levels. The first level is characterized as a re-training of the network in every iteration, so that the artificial neural network can able to consider the most recent data at all times, and constantly adapt itself to the most recent happenings. The second level considers the adaptation of the neural network’s execution time depending on the circumstances of its use. The execution time adaptation is performed through the automatic adjustment of the amount of data considered for training the network. This is an advantageous and indispensable feature for this neural network’s integration in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to the market negotiating players of MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets).

Symbolic Knowledge Extraction from Trained Neural Networks Governed by Lukasiewicz Logics

This work describes a methodology to extract symbolic rules from trained neural networks. In our approach, patterns on the network are codified using formulas on a Lukasiewicz logic. For this we take advantage of the fact that every connective in this multi-valued logic can be evaluated by a neuron in an artificial network having, by activation function the identity truncated to zero and one. This fact simplifies symbolic rule extraction and allows the easy injection of formulas into a network architecture. We trained this type of neural network using a back-propagation algorithm based on Levenderg-Marquardt algorithm, where in each learning iteration, we restricted the knowledge dissemination in the network structure. This makes the descriptive power of produced neural networks similar to the descriptive power of Lukasiewicz logic language, minimizing the information loss on the translation between connectionist and symbolic structures. To avoid redundance on the generated network, the method simplifies them in a pruning phase, using the "Optimal Brain Surgeon" algorithm. We tested this method on the task of finding the formula used on the generation of a given truth table. For real data tests, we selected the Mushrooms data set, available on the UCI Machine Learning Repository.

Artificial neural network study of whole-cell bacterial bioreporter response determined using fluorescence flow cytometry.

Genetically engineered bioreporters are an excellent complement to traditional methods of chemical analysis. The application of fluorescence flow cytometry to detection of bioreporter response enables rapid and efficient characterization of bacterial bioreporter population response on a single-cell basis. In the present study, intrapopulation response variability was used to obtain higher analytical sensitivity and precision. We have analyzed flow cytometric data for an arsenic-sensitive bacterial bioreporter using an artificial neural network-based adaptive clustering approach (a single-layer perceptron model). Results for this approach are far superior to other methods that we have applied to this fluorescent bioreporter (e.g., the arsenic detection limit is 0.01 microM, substantially lower than for other detection methods/algorithms). The approach is highly efficient computationally and can be implemented on a real-time basis, thus having potential for future development of high-throughput screening applications.

Volatility smile extrapolation with an artificial neural network

I use a multi-layer feedforward perceptron, with backpropagation learning implemented via stochastic gradient descent, to extrapolate the volatility smile of Euribor derivatives over low-strikes by training the network on parametric prices.

Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: neural networks vs. time series models

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourismdemand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time seriesmethods at a regional level. Seasonality and volatility are important features of tourism data, which makes it a particularly favourable context in which to compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official statistical data of overnight stays and tourist arrivals fromall the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2009 is used in the study. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques for different time horizons, autoregressive integrated moving average models outperform self-exciting threshold autoregressions and artificial neural network models, especially for shorter horizons. These results suggest that the there is a trade-off between the degree of pre-processing and the accuracy of the forecasts obtained with neural networks, which are more suitable in the presence of nonlinearity in the data. In spite of the significant differences between countries, which can be explained by different patterns of consumer behaviour,we also find that forecasts of tourist arrivals aremore accurate than forecasts of overnight stays.

Generalization transitions in Hidden-Layer neural networks for third-order feature discrimination

Stochastic learning processes for a specific feature detector are studied. This technique is applied to nonsmooth multilayer neural networks requested to perform a discrimination task of order 3 based on the ssT-block¿ssC-block problem. Our system proves to be capable of achieving perfect generalization, after presenting finite numbers of examples, by undergoing a phase transition. The corresponding annealed theory, which involves the Ising model under external field, shows good agreement with Monte Carlo simulations.

Description of epidemics of coffee rust with neural networks

The objective of this paper was to evaluate the potential of neural networks (NN) as an alternative method to the basic epidemiological approach to describe epidemics of coffee rust. The NN was developed from the intensities of coffee (Coffea arabica) rust along with the climatic variables collected in Lavras-MG between 13 February 1998 and 20 April 2001. The NN was built with climatic variables that were either selected in a stepwise regression analysis or by the Braincel® system, software for NN building. Fifty-nine networks and 26 regression models were tested. The best models were selected based on small values of the mean square deviation (MSD) and of the mean prediction error (MPE). For the regression models, the highest coefficients of determination (R²) were used. The best model developed with neural networks had an MSD of 4.36 and an MPE of 2.43%. This model used the variables of minimum temperature, production, relative humidity of the air, and irradiance 30 days before the evaluation of disease. The best regression model was developed from 29 selected climatic variables in the network. The summary statistics for this model were: MPE=6.58%, MSE=4.36, and R²=0.80. The elaborated neural networks from a time series also were evaluated to describe the epidemic. The incidence of coffee rust at four previous fortnights resulted in a model with MPE=4.72% and an MSD=3.95.

Automated grading of left ventricular segmental wall motion by an artificial neural network using color kinesis images

The present study describes an auxiliary tool in the diagnosis of left ventricular (LV) segmental wall motion (WM) abnormalities based on color-coded echocardiographic WM images. An artificial neural network (ANN) was developed and validated for grading LV segmental WM using data from color kinesis (CK) images, a technique developed to display the timing and magnitude of global and regional WM in real time. We evaluated 21 normal subjects and 20 patients with LVWM abnormalities revealed by two-dimensional echocardiography. CK images were obtained in two sets of viewing planes. A method was developed to analyze CK images, providing quantitation of fractional area change in each of the 16 LV segments. Two experienced observers analyzed LVWM from two-dimensional images and scored them as: 1) normal, 2) mild hypokinesia, 3) moderate hypokinesia, 4) severe hypokinesia, 5) akinesia, and 6) dyskinesia. Based on expert analysis of 10 normal subjects and 10 patients, we trained a multilayer perceptron ANN using a back-propagation algorithm to provide automated grading of LVWM, and this ANN was then tested in the remaining subjects. Excellent concordance between expert and ANN analysis was shown by ROC curve analysis, with measured area under the curve of 0.975. An excellent correlation was also obtained for global LV segmental WM index by expert and ANN analysis (R² = 0.99). In conclusion, ANN showed high accuracy for automated semi-quantitative grading of WM based on CK images. This technique can be an important aid, improving diagnostic accuracy and reducing inter-observer variability in scoring segmental LVWM.

HYBRID ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK APPLIEDTO MODELING SCFE OF BASIL AND ROSEMARY OILS

This work presents the results of a Hybrid Neural Network (HNN) technique as applied to modeling SCFE curves obtained from two Brazilian vegetable matrices. A series Hybrid Neural Network was employed to estimate the parameters of the phenomenological model. A small set of SCFE data of each vegetable was used to generate an extended data set, sufficient to train the network. Afterwards, other sets of experimental data, not used in the network training, were used to validate the present approach. The series HNN correlates well the experimental data and it is shown that the predictions accomplished with this technique may be promising for SCFE purposes.

Modelling the colour difference by artificial neural network

This thesis work studies the modelling of the colour difference using artificial neural network. Multilayer percepton (MLP) network is proposed to model CIEDE2000 colour difference formula. MLP is applied to classify colour points in CIE xy chromaticity diagram. In this context, the evaluation was performed using Munsell colour data and MacAdam colour discrimination ellipses. Moreover, in CIE xy chromaticity diagram just noticeable differences (JND) of MacAdam ellipses centres are computed by CIEDE2000, to compare JND of CIEDE2000 and MacAdam ellipses. CIEDE2000 changes the orientation of blue areas in CIE xy chromaticity diagram toward neutral areas, but on the whole it does not totally agree with the MacAdam ellipses. The proposed MLP for both modelling CIEDE2000 and classifying colour points showed good accuracy and achieved acceptable results.