Using customer lifetime value to improve the prediction of bank deposit subscription in telemarketing campaigns

Customer lifetime value (LTV) enables using client characteristics, such as recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) value, to describe the value of a client through time in terms of profitability. We present the concept of LTV applied to telemarketing for improving the return-on-investment, using a recent (from 2008 to 2013) and real case study of bank campaigns to sell long- term deposits. The goal was to benefit from past contacts history to extract additional knowledge. A total of twelve LTV input variables were tested, un- der a forward selection method and using a realistic rolling windows scheme, highlighting the validity of five new LTV features. The results achieved by our LTV data-driven approach using neural networks allowed an improvement up to 4 pp in the Lift cumulative curve for targeting the deposit subscribers when compared with a baseline model (with no history data). Explanatory knowledge was also extracted from the proposed model, revealing two highly relevant LTV features, the last result of the previous campaign to sell the same product and the frequency of past client successes. The obtained results are particularly valuable for contact center companies, which can improve pre- dictive performance without even having to ask for more information to the companies they serve.

Organic-inorganic hybrid sol-gelcoatings for metal corrosion protection: a review of recent progress

This paper is a review of the most recent and relevant achievements (from 2001 to 2013) on the development of organic–inorganic hybrid (OIH) coatings produced by sol–gel-derivedmethods to improve resistance to oxidation/corrosion of different metallic substrates and their alloys. This review is focused on the research of OIH coatings based on siloxanes using the sol–gel process conducted at an academic level and aims to summarize the materials developed and identify perspectives for further research. The fundamentals of sol–gel are described, including OIH classification, the interaction with the substrate, their advantages, and limitations. The main precursors used in the synthesis ofOIHsol–gel coatings for corrosion protection are also discussed, according to the metallic substrate used. Finally, a multilayer system to improve the resistance to corrosion is proposed, based on OIH coatings produced by the sol–gel process, and the future research challenges are debated.

Titanium oxide adhesion layer for high temperature annealed Si/Si3N4/TiOx/Pt/LiCoO2 battery structures

This work describes the influence of a high annealing temperature of about 700C on the Si(substrate)/Si3N4/TiOx/Pt/LiCoO2 multilayer system for the fabrication of all-solid-state lithium ion thin film microbatteries. Such microbatteries typically utilize lithium cobalt oxide (LiCoO2) as cathode material with a platinum (Pt) current collector. Silicon nitride (Si3N4) is used to act as a barrier against Li diffusion into the substrate. For a good adherence between Si3N4 and Pt, commonly titanium (Ti) is used as intermediate layer. However, to achieve crystalline LiCoO2 the multilayer system has to be annealed at high temperature. This post-treatment initiates Ti diffusion into the Pt-collector and an oxidation to TiOx, leading to volume expansion and adhesion failures. To solve this adhesion problem, we introduce titanium oxide (TiOx) as an adhesion layer, avoiding the diffusion during the annealing process. LiCoO2, Pt and Si3N4 layers were deposited by magnetron sputtering and the TiOx layer by thermal oxidation of Ti layers deposited by e-beam technique. Asdeposited and annealed multilayer systems using various TiOx layer thicknesses were studied by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) and x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). The results revealed that an annealing process at temperature of 700C leads to different interactions of Ti atoms between the layers, for various TiOx layer thicknesses (25–45 nm).

Effect of argon ion energy on the performance of silicon nitridemultilayer permeation barriers grown by hot-wire CVD on polymers

One of the authors (S.M.) acknowledges Direction des Relations Extérieures of Ecole Polytechnique for financial support.

Layer-by-layer technique to developing functional nanolaminate films with antifungal activity

The layer-by-layer (LbL) deposition method was used to build up alternating layers (five) of different polyelectrolyte solutions (alginate, zein-carvacrol nanocapsules, chitosan and chitosan-carvacrol emulsions) on an aminolysed/charged polyethylene terephthalate (A/C PET) film. These nanolaminated films were characterised by contact angle measurements and through the determination of water vapour (WVTR) and oxygen (O2TR) transmission rates. The effect of active nanolaminated films against the Alternaria sp. and Rhizopus stolonifer was also evaluated. This procedure allowed developing optically transparent nanolaminated films with tuneable water vapour and gas properties and antifungal activity. The water and oxygen transmission rate values for the multilayer films were lower than those previously reported for the neat alginate or chitosan films. The presence of carvacrol and zein nanocapsules significantly decreased the water transmission rate (up to 40 %) of the nanolaminated films. However, the O2TR behaved differently and was only improved (up to 45 %) when carvacrol was encapsulated, i.e. nanolaminated films prepared by alternating alginate with nanocapsules of zein-carvacrol layers showed better oxygen barrier properties than those prepared as an emulsion of chitosan and carvacrol. These films containing zein-carvacrol nanocapsules also showed the highest antifungal activity (30 %), which did not significantly differ from those obtained with the highest amount of carvacrol, probably due to the controlled release of the active agent (carvacrol) from the zein-carvacrol nanocapsules. Thus, this work shows that nanolaminated films prepared with alternating layers of alginate and zein-carvacrol nanocapsules can be considered to improve the shelf-life of foodstuffs.

Desenvolvimento de um sistema fibroso multicamada para reabilitação de edifícios

Dissertação de mestrado Internacional em Sustentabilidade do Ambiente Construído

Flexible thin-film lithium battery

Tese de Doutoramento Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Electrónica e Computadores.

Development and characterization of lipid-based nanosystems for controlled release of bioactive compounds

Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia Química e Biológica.

Incorporation of antimicrobial peptides on functionalized cotton gauzes for medical applications

A large group of low molecular weight natural compounds that exhibit antimicrobial activity has been isolated from animals and plants during the past two decades. Among them, peptides are the most widespread resulting in a new generation of antimicrobial agents with higher specific activity. In the present study we have developed a new strategy to obtain antimicrobial wound-dressings based on the incorporation of antimicrobial peptides into polyelectrolyte multilayer films built by the alternate deposition of polycation (chitosan) and polyanion (alginic acid sodium salt) over cotton gauzes. Energy dispersive X ray microanalysis technique was used to determine if antimicrobial peptides penetrated within the films. FTIR analysis was performed to assess the chemical linkages, and antimicrobial assays were performed with two strains: Staphylococcus aureus (Gram-positive bacterium) and Klebsiella pneumonia (Gram-negative bacterium). Results showed that all antimicrobial peptides used in this work have provided a higher antimicrobial effect (in the range of 4 log–6 log reduction) for both microorganisms, in comparison with the controls, and are non-cytotoxic to normal human dermal fibroblasts at the concentrations tested.

Adhesive bioactive coatings inspired by sea life

Inspired by nature, in particular by the marine mussels adhesive proteins (MAPs) and by the tough brick-and-mortar nacre-like structure, novel multilayered films are prepared in the present work. Organic-inorganic multilayered films, with an architecture similar to nacre based on bioactive glass nanoparticles (BG), chitosan and hyaluronic acid modified with catechol groups, which are the main responsible for the outstanding adhesion in MAPs, are developed for the first time. The biomimetic conjugate is prepared by carbodiimide chemistry and analyzed by ultraviolet-visible spectrophotometry. The build-up of the multilayered films is monitored with a quartz crystal microbalance with dissipation monitoring and their topography is characterized by atomic force microscopy. The mechanical properties reveal that the films containing catechol groups and BG present an enhanced adhesion. Moreover, the bioactivity of the films upon immersion in a simulated body fluid solution for 7 days is evaluated by scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction. It was found that the constructed films promote the formation of bone-like apatite in vitro. Such multifunctional mussel inspired LbL films, which combine enhanced adhesion and bioactivity, could be potentially used as coatings of a variety of implants for orthopedic applications.

A behavior-based scheme using reinforcement learning for autonomous underwater vehicles

This paper presents a hybrid behavior-based scheme using reinforcement learning for high-level control of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs). Two main features of the presented approach are hybrid behavior coordination and semi on-line neural-Q_learning (SONQL). Hybrid behavior coordination takes advantages of robustness and modularity in the competitive approach as well as efficient trajectories in the cooperative approach. SONQL, a new continuous approach of the Q_learning algorithm with a multilayer neural network is used to learn behavior state/action mapping online. Experimental results show the feasibility of the presented approach for AUVs

Eina per al desenvolupament de reflectors de conjunts òptics

Avui en dia, una bona il·luminació vial és molt important, tant per als conductors com per als vianants. Els fanals o conjunts òptics estan compostos per una font de llum que és la làmpada, el reflector i la carcassa que els protegeix. Trobar la forma exacta d’un reflector amb unes propietats òptiques en particular és de gran importància en el sector luminotècnic. En aquest projecte es vol dissenyar i desenvolupar una sistema capaç d’ajudar a obtenir el reflector adequat, un programari que permeti dissenyar un reflector a partir d’una boca qualsevol, i mitjançant una làmpada, capturar la intensitat de llum que el reflector projecta sobre al terra o una superfície del carrer. L’aplicació desenvolupada vol facilitar el procés de selecció d’un bon reflector als enginyers luminotècnics

Using a Parameterization of a Radiative Transfer Model to Build High-Resolution Maps of Typical Clear-Sky UV Index in Catalonia, Spain

To perform a climatic analysis of the annual UV index (UVI) variations in Catalonia, Spain (northeast of the Iberian Peninsula), a new simple parameterization scheme is presented based on a multilayer radiative transfer model. The parameterization performs fast UVI calculations for a wide range of cloudless and snow-free situations and can be applied anywhere. The following parameters are considered: solar zenith angle, total ozone column, altitude, aerosol optical depth, and single-scattering albedo. A sensitivity analysis is presented to justify this choice with special attention to aerosol information. Comparisons with the base model show good agreement, most of all for the most common cases, giving an absolute error within 0.2 in the UVI for a wide range of cases considered. Two tests are done to show the performance of the parameterization against UVI measurements. One uses data from a high-quality spectroradiometer from Lauder, New Zealand [45.04°S, 169.684°E, 370 m above mean sea level (MSL)], where there is a low presence of aerosols. The other uses data from a Robertson–Berger-type meter from Girona, Spain (41.97°N, 2.82°E, 100 m MSL), where there is more aerosol load and where it has been possible to study the effect of aerosol information on the model versus measurement comparison. The parameterization is applied to a climatic analysis of the annual UVI variation in Catalonia, showing the contributions of solar zenith angle, ozone, and aerosols. High-resolution seasonal maps of typical UV index values in Catalonia are presented

Méthodes sismiques actives adaptées à l'étude de milieux hétérogènes : application aux glissements de terrain

Résumé Les glissements de terrain représentent un des principaux risques naturels dans les régions montagneuses. En Suisse, chaque année les glissements de terrains causent des dégâts qui affectent les infrastructures et ont des coûts financiers importants. Une bonne compréhension des mécanismes des glissements peut permettre d'atténuer leur impact. Celle-ci passe notamment par la connaissance de la structure interne du glissement, la détermination de son volume et de son ou ses plans de glissement. Dans un glissement de terrain, la désorganisation et la présence de fractures dans le matériel déplacé engendre un changement des paramètres physiques et en particulier une diminution des vitesses de propagation des ondes sismiques ainsi que de la densité du matériel. Les méthodes sismiques sont de ce fait bien adaptées à l'étude des glissements de terrain. Parmi les méthodes sismiques, l'analyse de la dispersion des ondes de surface est une méthode simple à mettre en oeuvre. Elle présente l'avantage d'estimer les variations des vitesses de cisaillement avec la profondeur sans avoir spécifiquement recours à l'utilisation d'une source d'onde S et de géophones horizontaux. Sa mise en oeuvre en trois étapes implique la mesure de la dispersion des ondes de surface sur des réseaux étendus, la détermination des courbes de dispersion pour finir par l'inversion de ces courbes. Les modèles de vitesse obtenus à partir de cette procédure ne sont valides que lorsque les milieux explorés ne présentent pas de variations latérales. En pratique cette hypothèse est rarement vérifiée, notamment pour un glissement de terrain dans lequel les couches remaniées sont susceptibles de présenter de fortes hétérogénéités latérales. Pour évaluer la possibilité de déterminer des courbes de dispersion à partir de réseaux de faible extension des mesures testes ont été effectuées sur un site (Arnex, VD) équipé d'un forage. Un profil sismique de 190 m de long a été implanté dans une vallée creusée dans du calcaire et remplie par des dépôts glacio-lacustres d'une trentaine de mètres d'épaisseur. Les données acquises le long de ce profil ont confirmé que la présence de variations latérales sous le réseau de géophones affecte l'allure des courbes de dispersion jusqu'à parfois empêcher leur détermination. Pour utiliser l'analyse de la dispersion des ondes de surface sur des sites présentant des variations latérales, notre approche consiste à déterminer les courbes de dispersions pour une série de réseaux de faible extension, à inverser chacune des courbes et à interpoler les différents modèles de vitesse obtenus. Le choix de la position ainsi que de l'extension des différents réseaux de géophones est important. Il tient compte de la localisation des hétérogénéités détectées à partir de l'analyse de sismique réfraction, mais également d'anomalies d'amplitudes observées sur des cartes qui représentent dans le domaine position de tir - position du récepteur, l'amplitude mesurée pour différentes fréquences. La procédure proposée par Lin et Lin (2007) s'est avérée être une méthode efficace permettant de déterminer des courbes de dispersion à partir de réseaux de faible extension. Elle consiste à construire à partir d'un réseau de géophones et de plusieurs positions de tir un enregistrement temps-déports qui tient compte d'une large gamme de distances source-récepteur. Au moment d'assembler les différentes données une correction de phase est appliquée pour tenir compte des hétérogénéités situées entre les différents points de tir. Pour évaluer cette correction nous suggérons de calculer pour deux tir successif la densité spectrale croisée des traces de même offset: Sur le site d'Arnex, 22 courbes de dispersions ont été déterminées pour de réseaux de géophones de 10 m d'extension. Nous avons également profité du forage pour acquérir un profil de sismique verticale en ondes S. Le modèle de vitesse S déduit de l'interprétation du profil de sismique verticale est utilisé comme information à priori lors l'inversion des différentes courbes de dispersion. Finalement, le modèle en deux dimension qui a été établi grâce à l'analyse de la dispersion des ondes de surface met en évidence une structure tabulaire à trois couches dont les limites coïncident bien avec les limites lithologiques observées dans le forage. Dans celui-ci des argiles limoneuses associées à une vitesse de propagation des ondes S de l'ordre de 175 m/s surmontent vers 9 m de profondeur des dépôts de moraine argilo-sableuse caractérisés par des vitesses de propagation des ondes S de l'ordre de 300 m/s jusqu'à 14 m de profondeur et supérieur ou égal à 400 m/s entre 14 et 20 m de profondeur. Le glissement de la Grande Combe (Ballaigues, VD) se produit à l'intérieur du remplissage quaternaire d'une combe creusée dans des calcaires Portlandien. Comme dans le cas du site d'Arnex les dépôts quaternaires correspondent à des dépôts glacio-lacustres. Dans la partie supérieure la surface de glissement a été localisée à une vingtaine de mètres de profondeur au niveau de l'interface qui sépare des dépôts de moraine jurassienne et des dépôts glacio-lacustres. Au pied du glissement 14 courbes de dispersions ont été déterminées sur des réseaux de 10 m d'extension le long d'un profil de 144 m. Les courbes obtenues sont discontinues et définies pour un domaine de fréquence de 7 à 35 Hz. Grâce à l'utilisation de distances source-récepteur entre 8 et 72 m, 2 à 4 modes de propagation ont été identifiés pour chacune des courbes. Lors de l'inversion des courbes de dispersion la prise en compte des différents modes de propagation a permis d'étendre la profondeur d'investigation jusqu'à une vingtaine de mètres de profondeur. Le modèle en deux dimensions permet de distinguer 4 couches (Vs1 < 175 m/s, 175 m/s < Vs2 < 225 m/s, 225 m/s < Vs3 < 400 m/s et Vs4 >.400 m/s) qui présentent des variations d'épaisseur. Des profils de sismiques réflexion en ondes S acquis avec une source construite dans le cadre de ce travail, complètent et corroborent le modèle établi à partir de l'analyse de la dispersion des ondes de surface. Un réflecteur localisé entre 5 et 10 m de profondeur et associé à une vitesse de sommation de 180 m/s souligne notamment la géométrie de l'interface qui sépare la deuxième de la troisième couche du modèle établi à partir de l'analyse de la dispersion des ondes de surface. Abstract Landslides are one of the main natural hazards in mountainous regions. In Switzerland, landslides cause damages every year that impact infrastructures and have important financial costs. In depth understanding of sliding mechanisms may help limiting their impact. In particular, this can be achieved through a better knowledge of the internal structure of the landslide, the determination of its volume and its sliding surface or surfaces In a landslide, the disorganization and the presence of fractures in the displaced material generate a change of the physical parameters and in particular a decrease of the seismic velocities and of the material density. Therefoe, seismic methods are well adapted to the study of landslides. Among seismic methods, surface-wave dispersion analysis is a easy to implement. Through it, shearwave velocity variations with depth can be estimated without having to resort to an S-wave source and to horizontal geophones. Its 3-step implementation implies measurement of surface-wave dispersion with long arrays, determination of the dispersion curves and finally inversion of these curves. Velocity models obtained through this approach are only valid when the investigated medium does not include lateral variations. In practice, this assumption is seldom correct, in particular for landslides in which reshaped layers likely include strong lateral heterogeneities. To assess the possibility of determining dispersion curves from short array lengths we carried out tests measurements on a site (Arnex, VD) that includes a borehole. A 190 m long seismic profile was acquired in a valley carved into limestone and filled with 30 m of glacio-lacustrine sediments. The data acquired along this profile confirmed that the presence of lateral variations under the geophone array influences the dispersion-curve shape so much that it sometimes preventes the dispersion curves determination. Our approach to use the analysis of surface-wave dispersion on sites that include lateral variations consists in obtaining dispersion curves for a series of short length arrays; inverting each so obtained curve and interpolating the different obtained velocity model. The choice of the location as well as the geophone array length is important. It takes into account the location of the heterogeneities that are revealed by the seismic refraction interpretation of the data but also, the location of signal amplitude anomalies observed on maps that represent, for a given frequency, the measured amplitude in the shot position - receiver position domain. The procedure proposed by Lin and Lin (2007) turned out to be an efficient one to determine dispersion curves using short extension arrays. It consists in building a time-offset from an array of geophones with a wide offset range by gathering seismograms acquired with different source-to-receiver offsets. When assembling the different data, a phase correction is applied in order to reduce static phase error induced by lateral variation. To evaluate this correction, we suggest to calculate, for two successive shots, the cross power spectral density of common offset traces. On the Arnex site, 22 curves were determined with 10m in length geophone-arrays. We also took advantage of the borehole to acquire a S-wave vertical seismic profile. The S-wave velocity depth model derived from the vertical seismic profile interpretation is used as prior information in the inversion of the dispersion-curves. Finally a 2D velocity model was established from the analysis of the different dispersion curves. It reveals a 3-layer structure in good agreement with the observed lithologies in the borehole. In it a clay layer with a shear-wave of 175 m/s shear-wave velocity overlies a clayey-sandy till layer at 9 m depth that is characterized down to 14 m by a 300 m/s S-wave velocity; these deposits have a S-wave velocity of 400 m/s between depths of 14 to 20 m. The La Grand Combe landslide (Ballaigues, VD) occurs inside the Quaternary filling of a valley carved into Portlandien limestone. As at the Arnex site, the Quaternary deposits correspond to glaciolacustrine sediments. In the upper part of the landslide, the sliding surface is located at a depth of about 20 m that coincides with the discontinuity between Jurassian till and glacio-lacustrine deposits. At the toe of the landslide, we defined 14 dispersion curves along a 144 m long profile using 10 m long geophone arrays. The obtained curves are discontinuous and defined within a frequency range of 7 to 35 Hz. The use of a wide range of offsets (from 8 to 72 m) enabled us to determine 2 to 4 mode of propagation for each dispersion curve. Taking these higher modes into consideration for dispersion curve inversion allowed us to reach an investigation depth of about 20 m. A four layer 2D model was derived (Vs1< 175 m/s, 175 m/s <Vs2< 225 m/s, 225 m/s < Vs3 < 400 m/s, Vs4> 400 m/s) with variable layer thicknesses. S-wave seismic reflection profiles acquired with a source built as part of this work complete and the velocity model revealed by surface-wave analysis. In particular, reflector at a depth of 5 to 10 m associated with a 180 m/s stacking velocity image the geometry of the discontinuity between the second and third layer of the model derived from the surface-wave dispersion analysis.

Incremental neural networks for function approximation

A new strategy for incremental building of multilayer feedforward neural networks is proposed in the context of approximation of functions from R-p to R-q using noisy data. A stopping criterion based on the properties of the noise is also proposed. Experimental results for both artificial and real data are performed and two alternatives of the proposed construction strategy are compared.