Integrated Ecological Modeling and Decision Analysis Within the Everglades Landscape

Planning for complex ecosystem restoration projects involves integrating ecological modeling with analysis of performance trade-offs among restoration alternatives. The authors used the Everglades Landscape Model and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to explore the effect of simulated ecosystem performance, risk preferences, and criteria weights on the ranking of three alternatives to restoring overland sheet flow in the Everglades. The ecological model outputs included both hydrologic and water quality criteria. Results were scored in the decision analysis framework, highlighting the trade-offs between hydrologic restoration and water quality constraints. Given equal weighting of performance measures, the alternative with more homogenous sheet flow was preferred over other alternatives, despite evidence of some localized eutrophication risk.

Modified continuous ant colony algorithm for function optimization

Many classical as well as modern optimization techniques exist. One such modern method belonging to the field of swarm intelligence is termed ant colony optimization. This relatively new concept in optimization involves the use of artificial ants and is based on real ant behavior inspired by the way ants search for food. In this thesis, a novel ant colony optimization technique for continuous domains was developed. The goal was to provide improvements in computing time and robustness when compared to other optimization algorithms. Optimization function spaces can have extreme topologies and are therefore difficult to optimize. The proposed method effectively searched the domain and solved difficult single-objective optimization problems. The developed algorithm was run for numerous classic test cases for both single and multi-objective problems. The results demonstrate that the method is robust, stable, and that the number of objective function evaluations is comparable to other optimization algorithms.

(Figure 2) Mean discharge per day (total and baseflow part) of the San Francisco River and daily precipitation at station ECPL (Planta), in 2007

We investigated controls on the water chemistry of a South Ecuadorian cloud forest catchment which is partly pristine, and partly converted to extensive pasture. From April 2007 to May 2008 water samples were taken weekly to biweekly at nine different subcatchments, and were screened for differences in electric conductivity, pH, anion, as well as element composition. A principal component analysis was conducted to reduce dimensionality of the data set and define major factors explaining variation in the data. Three main factors were isolated by a subset of 10 elements (Ca2+, Ce, Gd, K+, Mg2+, Na+, Nd, Rb, Sr, Y), explaining around 90% of the data variation. Land-use was the major factor controlling and changing water chemistry of the subcatchments. A second factor was associated with the concentration of rare earth elements in water, presumably highlighting other anthropogenic influences such as gravel excavation or road construction. Around 12% of the variation was explained by the third component, which was defined by the occurrence of Rb and K and represents the influence of vegetation dynamics on element accumulation and wash-out. Comparison of base- and fast flow concentrations led to the assumption that a significant portion of soil water from around 30 cm depth contributes to storm flow, as revealed by increased rare earth element concentrations in fast flow samples. Our findings demonstrate the utility of multi-tracer principal component analysis to study tropical headwater streams, and emphasize the need for effective land management in cloud forest catchments.

Investigações sobre técnicas de arquivamento para otimizadores multiobjetivo

Multi-objective problems may have many optimal solutions, which together form the Pareto optimal set. A class of heuristic algorithms for those problems, in this work called optimizers, produces approximations of this optimal set. The approximation set kept by the optmizer may be limited or unlimited. The benefit of using an unlimited archive is to guarantee that all the nondominated solutions generated in the process will be saved. However, due to the large number of solutions that can be generated, to keep an archive and compare frequently new solutions to the stored ones may demand a high computational cost. The alternative is to use a limited archive. The problem that emerges from this situation is the need of discarding nondominated solutions when the archive is full. Some techniques were proposed to handle this problem, but investigations show that none of them can surely prevent the deterioration of the archives. This work investigates a technique to be used together with the previously proposed ideas in the literature to deal with limited archives. The technique consists on keeping discarded solutions in a secondary archive, and periodically recycle these solutions, bringing them back to the optimization. Three methods of recycling are presented. In order to verify if these ideas are capable to improve the archive content during the optimization, they were implemented together with other techniques from the literature. An computational experiment with NSGA-II, SPEA2, PAES, MOEA/D and NSGA-III algorithms, applied to many classes of problems is presented. The potential and the difficulties of the proposed techniques are evaluated based on statistical tests.

Investigações sobre técnicas de arquivamento para otimizadores multiobjetivo

Multi-objective problems may have many optimal solutions, which together form the Pareto optimal set. A class of heuristic algorithms for those problems, in this work called optimizers, produces approximations of this optimal set. The approximation set kept by the optmizer may be limited or unlimited. The benefit of using an unlimited archive is to guarantee that all the nondominated solutions generated in the process will be saved. However, due to the large number of solutions that can be generated, to keep an archive and compare frequently new solutions to the stored ones may demand a high computational cost. The alternative is to use a limited archive. The problem that emerges from this situation is the need of discarding nondominated solutions when the archive is full. Some techniques were proposed to handle this problem, but investigations show that none of them can surely prevent the deterioration of the archives. This work investigates a technique to be used together with the previously proposed ideas in the literature to deal with limited archives. The technique consists on keeping discarded solutions in a secondary archive, and periodically recycle these solutions, bringing them back to the optimization. Three methods of recycling are presented. In order to verify if these ideas are capable to improve the archive content during the optimization, they were implemented together with other techniques from the literature. An computational experiment with NSGA-II, SPEA2, PAES, MOEA/D and NSGA-III algorithms, applied to many classes of problems is presented. The potential and the difficulties of the proposed techniques are evaluated based on statistical tests.

Integrated sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty propagation analysis approaches for supporting hydrological modeling

The successful performance of a hydrological model is usually challenged by the quality of the sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty analysis carried out in the modeling exercise and subsequent simulation results. This is especially important under changing climatic conditions where there are more uncertainties associated with climate models and downscaling processes that increase the complexities of the hydrological modeling system. In response to these challenges and to improve the performance of the hydrological models under changing climatic conditions, this research proposed five new methods for supporting hydrological modeling. First, a design of experiment aided sensitivity analysis and parameterization (DOE-SAP) method was proposed to investigate the significant parameters and provide more reliable sensitivity analysis for improving parameterization during hydrological modeling. The better calibration results along with the advanced sensitivity analysis for significant parameters and their interactions were achieved in the case study. Second, a comprehensive uncertainty evaluation scheme was developed to evaluate three uncertainty analysis methods, the sequential uncertainty fitting version 2 (SUFI-2), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Parameter solution (ParaSol) methods. The results showed that the SUFI-2 performed better than the other two methods based on calibration and uncertainty analysis results. The proposed evaluation scheme demonstrated that it is capable of selecting the most suitable uncertainty method for case studies. Third, a novel sequential multi-criteria based calibration and uncertainty analysis (SMC-CUA) method was proposed to improve the efficiency of calibration and uncertainty analysis and control the phenomenon of equifinality. The results showed that the SMC-CUA method was able to provide better uncertainty analysis results with high computational efficiency compared to the SUFI-2 and GLUE methods and control parameter uncertainty and the equifinality effect without sacrificing simulation performance. Fourth, an innovative response based statistical evaluation method (RESEM) was proposed for estimating the uncertainty propagated effects and providing long-term prediction for hydrological responses under changing climatic conditions. By using RESEM, the uncertainty propagated from statistical downscaling to hydrological modeling can be evaluated. Fifth, an integrated simulation-based evaluation system for uncertainty propagation analysis (ISES-UPA) was proposed for investigating the effects and contributions of different uncertainty components to the total propagated uncertainty from statistical downscaling. Using ISES-UPA, the uncertainty from statistical downscaling, uncertainty from hydrological modeling, and the total uncertainty from two uncertainty sources can be compared and quantified. The feasibility of all the methods has been tested using hypothetical and real-world case studies. The proposed methods can also be integrated as a hydrological modeling system to better support hydrological studies under changing climatic conditions. The results from the proposed integrated hydrological modeling system can be used as scientific references for decision makers to reduce the potential risk of damages caused by extreme events for long-term water resource management and planning.

Gaussian Process Kernels for Cross-Spectrum Analysis in Electrophysiological Time Series

Multi-output Gaussian processes provide a convenient framework for multi-task problems. An illustrative and motivating example of a multi-task problem is multi-region electrophysiological time-series data, where experimentalists are interested in both power and phase coherence between channels. Recently, the spectral mixture (SM) kernel was proposed to model the spectral density of a single task in a Gaussian process framework. This work develops a novel covariance kernel for multiple outputs, called the cross-spectral mixture (CSM) kernel. This new, flexible kernel represents both the power and phase relationship between multiple observation channels. The expressive capabilities of the CSM kernel are demonstrated through implementation of 1) a Bayesian hidden Markov model, where the emission distribution is a multi-output Gaussian process with a CSM covariance kernel, and 2) a Gaussian process factor analysis model, where factor scores represent the utilization of cross-spectral neural circuits. Results are presented for measured multi-region electrophysiological data.

Financial sustainability of cooperatives: a case of portuguese olive oil cooperatives

En Portugal, como en otros países, las cooperativas agrícolas tienen un papel económico importante en el sistema alimentario. Similar a otras organizaciones económicas, las cooperativas agrícolas han sido testigos de cambios estructurales en las últimas décadas en términos de modelos de gobernación y gestión. Las cooperativas agrícolas portuguesas se han visto constreñidas por su contexto a adoptar un modelo tradicional de propiedad y control. El objetivo principal de este estudio era analizar cuestiones relacionadas con la estructura de gestión y desempeño financiero de las cooperativas, basada en los datos recogidos de cooperativas de aceite de oliva situadas en la región interior norte de Portugal. La combinación de un análisis cualitativo de la estructura y toma de decisiones, una evaluación financiera y la aplicación de un enfoque en varios criterios (PROMETHEE II), los resultados están en línea con expectativas (por ejemplo, bajos niveles de participación de los miembros, gestión no profesional, ratios de rentabilidad bajos, bajo apalancamiento y una capacidad para cumplir compromisos financieros), excepto la relación entre la gestión profesional y el desempeño financiero. La existencia de gestión profesional no conduce a mejores resultados financieros. Este resultado refuerza la creencia de que las cooperativas que están estructuradas de diferente manera tienen intereses diferentes y contradictorios a las partes interesadas.

Avvägning mellan arbetsmiljö och effektivitet med hjälp av multikriterieanalys : Hur komplettering av kundtjänst påverkar kundnöjdhet och effektivitet

A public organization has a section for customer service which is responsible of order entry from customers concerning errands within real estate and business equipment, cleaning, transport operations and handicap appliance. According to the co-ordinators in hospitals within the organisation the customers are requesting for staff to talk to physically, meaning a person to speak with face to face. The customers experiencing that it’s sometimes difficult to call customer service or use the web form, which is the only communication paths in the current situation. Proposed changes presented claim that a complement to customer service with local service centers in every hospital. The purpose of this study is to evaluate a change proposition by weigh between efficiency and working environment, this by using multi-criteria analysis. To achieve the goal a decision model is designed in the decision tool DecideIT. The aim of the study is to recommend decision makers to choose one of the options based on as rational grounds as possible. The result of the study showed that the preferred alternative is not to supplement customer service with local service centers. For the most part, the result depending on the survey (represented result from working environment criteria) which showed that the majority of customers do not request a person to speak with face to face at all.

Mathematical methods for the configuration of transportation systems with a focus on continuous and modular matrix conveyors

The lack of flexibility in logistic systems currently on the market leads to the development of new innovative transportation systems. In order to find the optimal configuration of such a system depending on the current goal functions, for example minimization of transport times and maximization of the throughput, various mathematical methods of multi-criteria optimization are applicable. In this work, the concept of a complex transportation system is presented. Furthermore, the question of finding the optimal configuration of such a system through mathematical methods of optimization is considered.

Decision Making for Teams of Mobile Robots

In the past years, we could observe a significant amount of new robotic systems in science, industry, and everyday life. To reduce the complexity of these systems, the industry constructs robots that are designated for the execution of a specific task such as vacuum cleaning, autonomous driving, observation, or transportation operations. As a result, such robotic systems need to combine their capabilities to accomplish complex tasks that exceed the abilities of individual robots. However, to achieve emergent cooperative behavior, multi-robot systems require a decision process that copes with the communication challenges of the application domain. This work investigates a distributed multi-robot decision process, which addresses unreliable and transient communication. This process composed by five steps, which we embedded into the ALICA multi-agent coordination language guided by the PROViDE negotiation middleware. The first step encompasses the specification of the decision problem, which is an integral part of the ALICA implementation. In our decision process, we describe multi-robot problems by continuous nonlinear constraint satisfaction problems. The second step addresses the calculation of solution proposals for this problem specification. Here, we propose an efficient solution algorithm that integrates incomplete local search and interval propagation techniques into a satisfiability solver, which forms a satisfiability modulo theories (SMT) solver. In the third decision step, the PROViDE middleware replicates the solution proposals among the robots. This replication process is parameterized with a distribution method, which determines the consistency properties of the proposals. In a fourth step, we investigate the conflict resolution. Therefore, an acceptance method ensures that each robot supports one of the replicated proposals. As we integrated the conflict resolution into the replication process, a sound selection of the distribution and acceptance methods leads to an eventual convergence of the robot proposals. In order to avoid the execution of conflicting proposals, the last step comprises a decision method, which selects a proposal for implementation in case the conflict resolution fails. The evaluation of our work shows that the usage of incomplete solution techniques of the constraint satisfaction solver outperforms the runtime of other state-of-the-art approaches for many typical robotic problems. We further show by experimental setups and practical application in the RoboCup environment that our decision process is suitable for making quick decisions in the presence of packet loss and delay. Moreover, PROViDE requires less memory and bandwidth compared to other state-of-the-art middleware approaches.

Using AHP and the IPMA Competence Baseline in the project managers selection process

This paper proposes the joint use of the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and the ICB (IPMA Competence Baseline), as a tool for the decision-making process of selecting the most suitable managers for projects. A hierarchical structure, comprising the IPMA’s ICB 3.0 contextual, behavioural and technical competence elements, is constructed for the selection of project managers. It also describes the AHP implementation, illustrating the whole process with an example using all the 46 ICB competence elements as model criteria. This tool can be of high interest to decision-makers because it allows comparing the candidates for managing a project using a systematic and rigorous process with a rich set of proven criteria.

Multiclass Adaboost Based on an Ensemble of Binary Adaboosts

This paper presents a multi-class AdaBoost based on incorporating an ensemble of binary AdaBoosts which is organized as Binary Decision Tree (BDT). It is proved that binary AdaBoost is extremely successful in producing accurate classification but it does not perform very well for multi-class problems. To avoid this performance degradation, the multi-class problem is divided into a number of binary problems and binary AdaBoost classifiers are invoked to solve these classification problems. This approach is tested with a dataset consisting of 6500 binary images of traffic signs. Haar-like features of these images are computed and the multi-class AdaBoost classifier is invoked to classify them. A classification rate of 96.7% and 95.7% is achieved for the traffic sign boarders and pictograms, respectively. The proposed approach is also evaluated using a number of standard datasets such as Iris, Wine, Yeast, etc. The performance of the proposed BDT classifier is quite high as compared with the state of the art and it converges very fast to a solution which indicates it as a reliable classifier.