Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

Expression des récepteurs aux facteurs de croissance (autres que KIT et PDGFRA) dans les tumeurs stromales gastro-intestinales : étude anatomo-clinique et immunohistochimique de 80 cas

Résumé Les tumeurs stromales gastro-intestinales (GISTs) sont des tumeurs de malignité variable du tractus gastro-intestinal d'évolution difficilement prévisible. Plus de 95% d'entre elles expriment les récepteurs KIT (90%) ou PDGFRA (5%), deux récepteurs aux facteurs de croissance à activité tyrosine-kinase. Peu de données existent quant à l'expression éventuelles d'autres récepteurs aux facteurs de croissance dans les GISTs. Buts de l'étude: Les buts de cette étude étaient double: 1-évaluer l'expression de plusieurs récepteurs aux facteurs de croissance, à l'exclusion de KIT et PDGFRA, au sein d'un collectif de GISTs; 2 -voir s'il existait une corrélation entre l'expression d'un ou plusieurs de ces récepteurs, les données anatomo-pathologiques et/ou l'évolution clinique Matériel et méthodes 80 GISTs ont été examinées sur le plan clinique, anatomo-pathologique, immunohistochimique et évolutif. L'immunoexpression des récepteurs aux facteurs de croissance suivants a été examinée: IGF-1r - insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor, FGFr fibroblast growth factor receptor, C-MET - hepatocyte growth factor receptor, TGFßr (type 1) - transforming growth factor beta receptor, type 1, CD105/endogline, RET et NGFr/gp75 (nerve growth factor receptor). Résultats 52.7% des GISTs exprimaient C-MET, 50% CD105iendogline, 36.7% RET, 25% NGFr/gp75, 17.5°Io TGFßr, 7.5% FGFr, et 0% IGF-lr. La présence ou non d'une expression de CD105 et son intensité étaient significativement associées à une évolution défavorable, tant pour les patients présentant une maladie localisée au diagnostic que pour ceux qui étaient métastatiques au diagnostic. L'expression de C-MET était aussi corrélée, mais de façon moins significative; à une évolution défavorable. En analyse multivariée, l'expression de CD105 est un facteur pronostique indépendant défavorable. Conclusion Les GISTs expriment de façon variable des récepteurs aux facteurs de croissance autres que KIT et PDGFRA. Les récepteurs au TGFß, au FGF et à l'IGF sont peu exprimés. L'endogline/CD105 et le récepteur C-MET sont plus fréquemment exprimés et leur expression est associée à une évolution clinique défavorable.

Stratification of the severity of critically ill patients with classification trees

Background: Development of three classification trees (CT) based on the CART (Classification and Regression Trees), CHAID (Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection) and C4.5 methodologies for the calculation of probability of hospital mortality; the comparison of the results with the APACHE II, SAPS II and MPM II-24 scores, and with a model based on multiple logistic regression (LR). Methods: Retrospective study of 2864 patients. Random partition (70:30) into a Development Set (DS) n = 1808 and Validation Set (VS) n = 808. Their properties of discrimination are compared with the ROC curve (AUC CI 95%), Percent of correct classification (PCC CI 95%); and the calibration with the Calibration Curve and the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR CI 95%). Results: CTs are produced with a different selection of variables and decision rules: CART (5 variables and 8 decision rules), CHAID (7 variables and 15 rules) and C4.5 (6 variables and 10 rules). The common variables were: inotropic therapy, Glasgow, age, (A-a)O2 gradient and antecedent of chronic illness. In VS: all the models achieved acceptable discrimination with AUC above 0.7. CT: CART (0.75(0.71-0.81)), CHAID (0.76(0.72-0.79)) and C4.5 (0.76(0.73-0.80)). PCC: CART (72(69- 75)), CHAID (72(69-75)) and C4.5 (76(73-79)). Calibration (SMR) better in the CT: CART (1.04(0.95-1.31)), CHAID (1.06(0.97-1.15) and C4.5 (1.08(0.98-1.16)). Conclusion: With different methodologies of CTs, trees are generated with different selection of variables and decision rules. The CTs are easy to interpret, and they stratify the risk of hospital mortality. The CTs should be taken into account for the classification of the prognosis of critically ill patients.

Short communication. Potential to mitigate anthropogenic CO2 emissions by tillage reduction in dryland soils of Spain

Spain is one of the countries with the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within the EU-27. Consequently, mitigation strategies need to be reported and quantified to accomplish the goals and requirements of the Kyoto Protocol. In this study, a first estimation of the carbon (C) mitigation potential of tillage reduction in Mediterranean rainfed Spain is presented. Results from eight studies carried out in Spain under rainfed agriculture to investigate the effects of no-tillage (NT) and reduced tillage (RT) compared with conventional tillage (CT) on soil organic carbon (SOC) were used. For current land surface under conservation tillage, NT and RT are sequestering 0.14 and 0.08 Tg C yr-1, respectively. Those rates represent 1.1% and 0.6% of the total CO2 emissions generated from agricultural activities in Spain during 2006. Alternatively, in a hypothetical scenario where all the arable dryland was under either NT or RT management, SOC sequestration would be 2.18 and 0.72 Tg C yr-1 representing 17.4% and 5.8% of the total 2006 CO2 equivalent emissions generated from the agricultural sector in Spain. This is a significant estimate that would help to achieve GHG emissions targets for the current commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.

An efficient total variation algorithm for super-resolution in fetal brain MRI with adaptive regularization.

Although fetal anatomy can be adequately viewed in new multi-slice MR images, many critical limitations remain for quantitative data analysis. To this end, several research groups have recently developed advanced image processing methods, often denoted by super-resolution (SR) techniques, to reconstruct from a set of clinical low-resolution (LR) images, a high-resolution (HR) motion-free volume. It is usually modeled as an inverse problem where the regularization term plays a central role in the reconstruction quality. Literature has been quite attracted by Total Variation energies because of their ability in edge preserving but only standard explicit steepest gradient techniques have been applied for optimization. In a preliminary work, it has been shown that novel fast convex optimization techniques could be successfully applied to design an efficient Total Variation optimization algorithm for the super-resolution problem. In this work, two major contributions are presented. Firstly, we will briefly review the Bayesian and Variational dual formulations of current state-of-the-art methods dedicated to fetal MRI reconstruction. Secondly, we present an extensive quantitative evaluation of our SR algorithm previously introduced on both simulated fetal and real clinical data (with both normal and pathological subjects). Specifically, we study the robustness of regularization terms in front of residual registration errors and we also present a novel strategy for automatically select the weight of the regularization as regards the data fidelity term. Our results show that our TV implementation is highly robust in front of motion artifacts and that it offers the best trade-off between speed and accuracy for fetal MRI recovery as in comparison with state-of-the art methods.

Outcomes After Liver Resection for Hepatic Alveolar Echinococcosis: A Single-Center Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Switzerland is a region in which alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is endemic. Studies evaluating outcomes after liver resection (LR) for AE are scarce. The aim of this study was to assess the short- and long-term outcomes of AE patients after LR in a single tertiary referral center. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed data pertaining to all patients with liver AE who were treated with LR at our institution between January 1992 and December 2013. Patient demographics, intraoperative data, extent of LR procedures (major vs. minor LR), postoperative outcomes, and negative histological margin (R0) resection rate were recorded in a database. Recurrence rates after LR were analyzed. RESULTS: LR was performed in 59 patients diagnosed with hepatic AE (56 complete surgeries, 3 reduction surgeries). Postoperative morbidity and mortality were observed in 34 % (25 % grade I-II, 9 % grade III-IV) and 2 % of the patients, respectively. R0 (complete) resection rate was 71 % (n = 42), and R1/R2 resection rate was 29 % (n = 17). Extra-hepatic recurrence occurred in 1 case (lung) after R0 resection. In cases of R1/R2 resection, 7 intra-hepatic disease progressions occurred with a median time of 10 months (IQR 6-11 months). Long-term (more than 1 year) benzimidazole treatment stabilized the disease in 64 % (9/14) of patients with R1 status. The overall survival rate was 97 %. CONCLUSIONS: Liver AE can be safely and definitively treated with LR, provided that R0 resection is achieved. In cases of R1 resection, benzimidazole therapy seems to be effective in stabilizing the intra-hepatic disease and preventing extra-hepatic recurrence.

Helping formulate propositions in forensic DNA analysis

The Bayesian paradigm is the preferred approach to evidence interpretation. It requires the evaluation of the probability of the evidence under at least two propositions. The value of the findings (i.e., our LR) will depend on these propositions and the case information, so it is crucial to identify which propositions are useful for the case at hand. Previously, a number of principles have been advanced and largely accepted for the evaluation of evidence. In the evaluation of traces involving DNA mixtures there may be more than two propositions possible. We apply these principles to some exemplar situations. We also show that in some cases, when there are no clear propositions or no defendant, a forensic scientist may be able to generate explanations to account for observations. In that case, the scientist plays a role of investigator, rather than evaluator. We believe that it is helpful for the scientist to distinguish those two roles.

Performance of 18F-FET versus 18F-FDG-PET for the diagnosis and grading of brain tumors: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: For the past decade (18)F-fluoro-ethyl-l-tyrosine (FET) and (18)F-fluoro-deoxy-glucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) have been used for the assessment of patients with brain tumor. However, direct comparison studies reported only limited numbers of patients. Our purpose was to compare the diagnostic performance of FET and FDG-PET. METHODS: We examined studies published between January 1995 and January 2015 in the PubMed database. To be included the study should: (i) use FET and FDG-PET for the assessment of patients with isolated brain lesion and (ii) use histology as the gold standard. Analysis was performed on a per patient basis. Study quality was assessed with STARD and QUADAS criteria. RESULTS: Five studies (119 patients) were included. For the diagnosis of brain tumor, FET-PET demonstrated a pooled sensitivity of 0.94 (95% CI: 0.79-0.98) and pooled specificity of 0.88 (95% CI: 0.37-0.99), with an area under the curve of 0.96 (95% CI: 0.94-0.97), a positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of 8.1 (95% CI: 0.8-80.6), and a negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of 0.07 (95% CI: 0.02-0.30), while FDG-PET demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.38 (95% CI: 0.27-0.50) and specificity of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.31-0.99), with an area under the curve of 0.40 (95% CI: 0.36-0.44), an LR+ of 2.7 (95% CI: 0.3-27.8), and an LR- of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.47-1.11). Target-to-background ratios of either FDG or FET, however, allow distinction between low- and high-grade gliomas (P > .11). CONCLUSIONS: For brain tumor diagnosis, FET-PET performed much better than FDG and should be preferred when assessing a new isolated brain tumor. For glioma grading, however, both tracers showed similar performances.

Lignanas de Strychnos guianensis (Aublet) Mart.

The present communication reports the isolation and identification of three lignans from metanolic root extracts of Strychnos guianensis (Aublet) Mart.: olivil (1), cycloolivil (2) and the unknown derivative cycloolivil carbonate (3). From hexane extracts was identified a long chain fatty acid mixture and the triterpene lupeol. The analyses were based on chromatographic and spectroscopy techniques (IR, MS, GC/MS, ¹H-NMR and 13C-NMR, 1D (BB, DEPT 135) and 2D (¹H, ¹ H-COSY, ¹H, 13C-COSY, ¹H, 13C-COSY-LR, HMQC, HMBC and NOESY) and comparison with literature data.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) in mothers before and after delivery – a three year follow-up study.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infections in mothers are important to consider since pregnancy may affect the outcome of the infection and the mother may transmit HPV to the child. This thesis is part of the 3-year Finnish Family HPV Study on HPV infection dynamics within 329 families. The presence of maternal HPV antibodies and HPV DNA in placenta, umbilical cord blood and breast milk was examined. In addition, genital and oral HR-HPV carriage was studied among mothers with one or two pregnancies. At enrollment, seropositivity to HPV 6, 11, 16, 18 and 45 was recorded in 53 %, 21 %, 35 %, 21 % and 9 % of the mothers, respectively. Age at sexual debut, number of sexual partners, a history of genital warts and antibodies to LR/HR-HPV predicted HR/LR-HPV-seropositivity. During follow-up 27 %, 14 %, 17 %, 17 % and 7 % of the mothers seroconverted to the tested HPV-types, respectively. Decay of HPV-antibodies was rare. The mother’s new pregnancy was of minor impact in the outcome of oral and cervical HR-HPV infections. HPV-DNA was present in 4.2 % and 3.5 % of the placentas and umbilical cord blood samples, and in 4.5 % and 19.7 % of the breast milk samples collected at day 3 and month 2 postpartum, respectively. HPV-positivity in placenta/cord blood was related to a history of abnormal pap-smears or genital warts, and raised the risk of the neonate being HPV-positive at birth. The mode of delivery did not predict the HPVstatus of neonate, placenta, or cord blood. HPV DNA in breast milk was associated with oral HPV status of the father, but not with HPV status of the neonate. The results indicate that exposure to HPV is common and that part of the exposure might take place already early in life. Contrary to the common claim, pregnancy is not a risk factor for HPV.

Estudo da oxidação dos sulfetos sintéticos molibdenita (MoS2) e covelita (CuS) por Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans via respirometria celular

This paper analyses the oxidation of covellite and molybdenite by Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans strain LR using respirometric experiments. The results showed that both sulfides were oxidized by A. ferrooxidans, however, the covellite oxidation was much higher than molybdenite. Regarding the kinetic oxidation, the findings revealed that just molybdenite oxidation followed the classical Michaelis-Menten kinetic. It is probably associated with the pathway which these sulfides react to chemistry-bacterial attack, what is influenced by its electronic structures. Besides, experiments conducted in the presence of Fe3+ did not indicate alterations in molybdenite oxidation. Thus, ferric ions seem not to be essential to the sulfide oxidations.

Identificação de fontes de resistência à ferrugem da folha do trigo em acessos de Aegilops tauschii

No Brasil, prejuízos ocasionados pela ferrugem da folha do trigo (Puccinia triticina) ocorrem anualmente. A incidência generalizada nas diferentes regiões produtoras varia em intensidade, dependendo das condições climáticas, da resistência genética das cultivares e do controle químico, sendo que a utilização de cultivares resistentes é o método mais eficiente de controle. Os genes que conferem resistência à ferrugem da folha em trigo são denominados Lr (leaf rust). Vários desses genes já foram identificados e mapeados. Alguns deles foram mapeados diretamente em genótipos hexaplóides, enquanto outros foram primeiramente encontrados em espécies afins, com menor nível de ploidia e, posteriormente, transferidos para o trigo cultivado. Das espécies afins, destaca-se a espécie diplóide Aegilops tauschii, doadora do genoma D do trigo cultivado, como uma importante fonte de genes de resistência. O objetivo desse trabalho foi avaliar a resistência à ferrugem da folha em acessos de Ae. tauschii, oriundos do Banco Ativo de Germoplasma da Embrapa Trigo (BAG - Passo Fundo, RS), para utilização das seleções nos programas de melhoramento. Quarenta acessos foram avaliados quanto à reação à raça SPJ-RS de Puccinia triticina e, destes, 25% (10 acessos) apresentaram resistência. Os dados obtidos neste estudo servem como subsídio na escolha de acessos resistentes que poderão ser utilizados como genitores em programas de melhoramento genético a fim de incremento de resistência a esse patógeno.

ZigBee-verkot

Tässä opinnäytetyössä perehdytään ZigBee-verkkoprotokollaan, joka on lyhyen kantaman langaton tekniikka, jossa on pyritty pieneen virrankulutukseen ja halpoihin valmistuskustannuksiin. Työssä tehdään ZigBee-tekniikasta lyhyt suomenkielinen yhteenveto, jossa esitellään ZigBee-verkon perustoiminnot ja käytetyt termit. Tarkoituksena on, että työssä esitetyt asiat pystyy omaksumaan ilman aikaisempaa perehtymistä tietoliikennetekniikkaan ja langattomiin verkkoihin.

Frigjord oskuld : heterosexuellt mognadsimperativ i svensk ungdomsroman

För att mogna på en heterosexuell marknad innebär det att unga i ungdomsromanen lär sig förstå hur gränser kan överskridas och vilka handlingar som får repressalier. Genom att diskutera tystnader och talakter gällande heterosexualitet visar "Frigjord oskuld. Heterosexuellt mognadsimperativ i svensk ungdomsroman" hur heteronormen är förhandlingsbar. Studien undersöker heterosexuella kärleksavbrott, gränsöverskridande väninneskap, tabubelagd syskonkärlek och homosexuellt agerande. Med avstamp i queerteori, feministisk teori och narratologi studeras hur sexualitet, men även kategorier som kön, klass och ålder, (re)producerar uppfattningar om (hetero)sexualitet. Utgående från nio ungdomsromaner skrivna år 1969-2004 av fyra författare: Gunnel Beckman, Inger Edelfeldt, Peter Pohl och Mats Wahl analyseras hur de unga förutsätts konstruera heterosexualitet(er) inom ramen för acceptabelt agerande i enlighet med ett heterosexuellt mognadsimperativ.

Hållpunkter för lärande : småbarns möten

Developed from human activities, mathematical knowledge is bound to the world and cultures that men and women experience. One can say that mathematics is rooted in humans’ everyday life, an environment where people reach agreement regarding certain “laws” and principles in mathematics. Through interaction with worldly phenomena and people, children will always gain experience that they can then in turn use to understand future situations. Consequently, the environment in which a child grows up plays an important role in what that child experiences and what possibilities for learning that child has. Variation theory, a branch of phenomenographical research, defines human learning as changes in understanding and acting towards a specific phenomenon. Variation theory implies a focus on that which it is possible to learn in a specific learning situation, since only a limited number of critical aspects of a phenomenon can be simultaneously discerned and focused on. The aim of this study is to discern how toddlers experience and learn mathematics in a daycare environment. The study focuses on what toddlers experience, how their learning experience is formed, and how toddlers use their understanding to master their environment. Twenty-three children were observed videographically during everyday activities. The videographic methodology aims to describe and interpret human actions in natural settings. The children are aged from 1 year, 1 month to 3 years, 9 months. Descriptions of the toddlers’ actions and communication with other children and adults are analyzed phenomenographically in order to discover how the children come to understand the different aspects of mathematics they encounter. The study’s analysis reveals that toddlers encounter various mathematical concepts, similarities and differences, and the relationship between parts and whole. Children form their understanding of such aspects in interaction with other children and adults in their everyday life. The results also show that for a certain type of learning to occur, some critical conditions must exist. Variation, simultaneity, reasonableness and fixed points are critical conditions of learning that appear to be important for toddlers’ learning. These four critical conditions are integral parts of the learning process. How children understand mathematics influences how they use mathematics as a tool to master their surrounding world. The results of the study’s analysis of how children use their understanding of mathematics shows that children use mathematics to uphold societal rules, to describe their surrounding world, and as a tool for problem solving. Accordingly, mathematics can be considered a very important phenomenon that children should come into contact with in different ways and which needs to be recognized as a necessary part of children’s everyday life. Adults working with young children play an important role in setting perimeters for children’s experiences and possibilities to explore mathematical concepts and phenomena. Therefore, this study is significant as regards understanding how children learn mathematics through everyday activities.