An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Diet, lifestyle and the risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in women

Background Previous studies have examined individual dietary and lifestyle factors in relation to type 2 diabetes, but the combined effects of these factors are largely unknown. Methods We followed 84,941 female nurses from 1980 to 1996; these women were free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer at base line. Information about their diet and lifestyle was updated periodically. A low-risk group was defined according to a combination of five variables: a body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) of less than 25; a diet high in cereal fiber and polyunsaturated fat and low in trans fat and glycemic load (which reflects the effect of diet on the blood glucose level); engagement in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity for at least half an hour per day; no current smoking; and the consumption of an average of at least half a drink of an alcoholic beverage per day. Results During 16 years of follow-up, we documented 3300 new cases of type 2 diabetes. Overweight or obesity was the single most important predictor of diabetes. Lack of exercise, a poor diet, current smoking, and abstinence from alcohol use were all associated with a significantly increased risk of diabetes, even after adjustment for the body-mass index. As compared with the rest of the cohort, women in the low-risk group (3.4 percent of the women) had a relative risk of diabetes of 0.09 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.05 to 0.17). A total of 91 percent of the cases of diabetes in this cohort (95 percent confidence interval, 83 to 95 percent) could be attributed to habits and forms of behavior that did not conform to the low-risk pattern. Conclusions Our findings support the hypothesis that the majority of cases of type 2 diabetes could be prevented by the adoption of a healthier lifestyle.

Asymptomatic primary Epstein-Barr virus infection occurs in the absence of blood T-cell repertoire perturbations despite high levels of systemic viral load

Primary infection with the human herpesvirus, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), may result in subclinical seroconversion or may appear as infectious mononucleosis (IM), a lymphoproliferative disease of variable severity. Why primary infection manifests differently between patients is unknown, and, given the difficulties in identifying donors undergoing silent seroconversion, little information has been reported. However, a longstanding assumption has been held that IM represents an exaggerated form of the virologic and immunologic events of asymptomatic infection. T-cell receptor (TCR) repertoires of a unique cohort of subclinically infected patients undergoing silent infection were studied, and the results highlight a fundamental difference between the 2 forms of infection. In contrast to the massive T-cell expansions mobilized during the acute symptomatic phase of IM, asymptomatic donors largely maintain homeostatic T-cell control and peripheral blood repertoire diversity. This disparity cannot simply be linked to severity or spread of the infection because high levels of EBV DNA were found in the blood from both types of acute infection. The results suggest that large expansions of T cells within the blood during IM may not always be associated with the control of primary EBV infection and that they may represent an overreaction that exacerbates disease. (C) 2001 by The American Society of Hematology.

A portable load cell for in-situ ore impact breakage testing

This paper discusses the design and characterisation of a short, and hence portable impact load cell for in-situ quantification of ore breakage properties under impact loading conditions. Much literature has been published in the past two decades about impact load cells for ore breakage testing. It has been conclusively shown that such machines yield significant quantitative energy-fragmentation information about industrial ores. However, documented load cells are all laboratory systems that are not adapted for in-situ testing due to their dimensions and operating requirements. The authors report on a new portable impact load cell designed specifically for in-situ testing. The load cell is 1.5 m in height and weighs 30 kg. Its physical and operating characteristics are detailed in the paper. This includes physical dimensions, calibration and signal deconvolution. Emphasis is placed on the deconvolution issue, which is significant for such a short load cell. Finally, it is conclusively shown that the short load cell is quantitatively as accurate as its larger laboratory analogues. (C) 2062 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Parasite distribution on client reef fish determines cleaner fish foraging patterns

Recent evidence suggests that cleaner fish Labroides dimidiatus effectively control parasite densities on client reef fish that actively visit them to have parasites and dead or infected tissue removed. These findings support the hypothesis that clients benefit from cleaning, However, they do not show how cleaners reduce the parasite load of their clients. Cleaners could selectively feed on parasites or parasite removal could be a side product of cleaners foraging indifferently on the client surface, resulting in the removal of healthy mucus and scales also. To investigate cleaner fish foraging behaviour, we infected individuals of the surgeon fish Ctenochaetus striatus, with parasitic monogeneans on one body side, while the other body side was parasite free. We then allowed these clients to interact with L, dimidiatus. We found that the duration of interactions depended on parasite load, and that cleaners spent both more time and took more bites per time unit on the infected than on the uninfected side, Our data thus support the idea that parasite abundance determines food patch quality for cleaners. The overall outcome of cleaning interactions is thus likely to benefit the clients.

Patterns of change and stability in the gender division of household labour in Australia, 1986-1997

Recent research in Australia and overseas has suggested that we are witnessing a convergence of men's and women's time on domestic labour activities. But there is disagreement about whether this is due to women reducing their time on housework or men increasing their time on housework. This article addresses these issues using national survey data collected in Australia in 1986, 1993 and 1997. The results show some changes in the proportional responsibilities of men and women in the home with men reporting a greater share of traditional indoor activities. But overall both men and women are spending less time on housework. In particular, women's time on housework has declined by six hours per week since 1986. Hence, while the gender gap between men's and women's involvement in the home is getting smaller, it is not the result of men increasing their share of the load, but is due to the large decline in women's time spent on domestic labour. There is also evidence of change in the relationship. between paid and unpaid work for women. Women's hours of,paid labour had a greater impact on their involvement in domestic labour in 1997 compared to a decade earlier. The article concludes that women's increased labour force involvement in combination with changing patterns and styles, of consumption is leading to some changes in the gender-division:of household labour, but not in the direction anticipated by earlier commentators on the domestic division of labour.

Impact of point source pollution on nitrogen isotope signatures (delta N-15) of vegetation in SE Brazil

This study presents novel evidence that N-15 natural abundance can be used as a robust indicator to detect pollutant nitrogen in natural plant communities. Vegetation from the heavily polluted industrial area of Cubatao in Sao Paulo State, SE Brazil, was strongly N-15 depleted compared to plants at remote sites. Historic herbarium samples from Cubatao were significantly less N-15 depleted than extant plants, indicating that N-15 depletion of vegetation is associated with present-day nitrogen pollution in Cubatao. The heavy load of nitrogenous atmospheric pollutants in Cubatao provides a nitrogen source for plants, and strongly N-15 depleted air NH3 is likely to contribute to plant and soil N-15 depletion. Epiphytic plants from Cubatao were extremely N-15 depleted (average -10.9parts per thousand) contrasting with epiphytes at remote sites (averages -1.0parts per thousand and -3.0parts per thousand). Nitrogen isotope composition of vegetation provides a tool to determine input of pollutant nitrogen into plant communities. The strong isotopic change of epiphytes suggests that epiphytes are particularly sensitive biomonitors for atmospheric pollutant nitrogen.

Sponge halogenated natural products found at parts-per-million levels in marine mammals

Several unknown, abundant brominated compounds (BCs) were recently detected in the blubber of dolphins and other marine mammals from Queensland (northeast Australia). The BC were interpreted as potential natural products due to the lack of anthropogenic sources for these compounds. This study investigated whether some of the BCs accumulated by diverse marine mammal species are identical with natural BCs previously isolated from sponges (Dysidea sp.) living in the same habitat. Isolates from sponges and mollusks (Asteronotus cespitosus) were compared with the signals detected in the mammals' tissue. Mass spectra and gas chromatography retention times on four different capillary columns of the isolates from sponges and mammals were identical in all respects. This proves that the chemical name of the compound previously labeled BC-2 is 4,6-dibromo-2-(2'-dibromo)phenoxyanisole and that the chemical name of BC-11 is 3,5-dibromo-2-(3',5'-dibromo-2'-methoxy)phenoxyanisole. Using a quantitative reference solution of BC-2, we established that the concentrations of the brominated metabolies found in the marine mammals are frequently >1 mg/kg. The highest concentration (3.8 mg/kg), found in a sample of pygmy sperm whale (Kogia breviceps), indicates that BC-2 is a bioaccumulative, natural organohalogen compound. This is supported by the concentrations of the BCs in our samples being equal to the highest concentrations of anthropogenic BCs in any environmental sample. The quantitative determination of BC-2 in blubber of marine mammals from Africa and the Antarctic suggests that BC-2 is wide-spread. These results are direct proof that marine biota can produce persistent organic chemicals that accumulate to substantial concentrations in higher trophic organisms.

Age does not influence the bone response to treadmill exercise in female rats

Purpose: Because it is believed that bone may respond to exercise differently at different ages, we compared bone responses in immature and mature rats after 12 wk of treadmill running. Methods: Twenty-two immature (5-wk-old) and 21 mature (17-wk-old) female Sprague Dawley rats were randomized into a running (trained, N = 10 immature, 9 mature) or a control group (controls, N 12 immature, 12 mature) before sacrifice 12 wk later. Rats ran on a treadmill five times per week for 60-70 min at speeds up to 26 m.min(-1). Both at baseline and after intervention, we measured total body, lumbar spine, and proximal femoral bone mineral, as well as total body soft tissue composition using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in vivo. After sacrificing the animals, we measured dynamic and static histomorphometry and three-point bending strength of the tibia. Results: Running training was associated with greater differences in tibial subperiosteal area, cortical cross-sectional area, peak load, stiffness, and moment of inertia in immature and mature rats (P < 0.05). The trained rats had greater periosteal bone formation rates (P < 0.01) than controls, but there was no difference in tibial trabecular bone histomorphometry. Similar running-related gains were seen in DXA lumbar spine area (P = 0.04) and bone mineral content (BMC; P = 0.03) at both ages. For total body bone area and BMC, the immature trained group increased significantly compared with controls (P < 0.05), whereas the mature trained group gained less than did controls (P < 0.01). Conclusion: In this in vivo model, where a similar physical training program was performed by immature and mature female rats, we demonstrated that both age groups were sensitive to loading and that bone strength gains appeared to result more from changes in bone geometry than from improved material properties.

Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Aging per se does not influence glucose homeostasis - In vivo and in vitro evidence

OBJECTIVE - To assess the effect of age on glucose metabolism by examining 1) glucose metabolism in young and middle-aged subjects when total or regional adiposity is taken into account and 2) in vitro glucose transport in adipose tissue explants from young and middle-aged women paired for total and abdominal adiposity. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - Study 1: body composition, subcutaneous abdominal and visceral adipose tissue areas, and fasting and oral glucose-stimulated glucose and insulin were measured in 84 young and 81 middle-aged men and in 110 young and 91 middle-aged women. Study 2: glucose uptake in subcutaneous abdominal and visceral adipose tissue explants were measured in eight young and eight middle-aged women. RESULTS - Study 1: young and middle-aged men showed similar subcutaneous abdominal tissue area, whereas fat mass and visceral adipose tissue were greater in middle-aged than in young men (P < 0.01). Fat mass and subcutaneous and visceral adipose tissue areas were greater in middle-aged as compared with young women (P < 0.01). Fasting plasma glucose and the glucose response to an oral glucose tolerance test were significantly higher in middle-aged than in young men and women (P < 0.001). Statistical control for visceral adipose tissue area eliminated the difference seen in glucose response in men and women. Study 2: glucose transport in subcutaneous and omental adipose tissue did not differ between young and middle-aged women. CONCLUSIONS - 1) Visceral obesity, more than age per se, correlates with glucose intolerance in middle-aged subjects; 2) aging does not influence in vitro adipose tissue glucose uptake.

A reduced load approximation accounting for link interactions in a loss network

This paper is concerned with evaluating the performance of loss networks. Accurate determination of loss network performance can assist in the design and dimen- sioning of telecommunications networks. However, exact determination can be difficult and generally cannot be done in reasonable time. For these reasons there is much interest in developing fast and accurate approximations. We develop a reduced load approximation that improves on the famous Erlang fixed point approximation (EFPA) in a variety of circumstances. We illustrate our results with reference to a range of networks for which the EFPA may be expected to perform badly.

O processo decis??rio da reforma tribut??ria e da previd??ncia social: per??odo de 1994 a 1998

An??lise da reforma constitucional no governo Fernando Henrique Cardoso a partir dos estudos de caso da reforma tribut??ria e da previd??ncia social, compreendendo tamb??m uma reconstitui????o do processo decis??rio de pol??ticas nestas ??reas desde a era Collor.

Formar dirigentes, capacitar gestores, desenvolver gerentes: do que estamos falando? A experi??ncia da ENAP-Brasil no per??odo 2003-2007

Este texto busca em sua primeira parte analisar as contribui????es ofertadas pela Carta Iberoamericana da Fun????o P??blica na constru????o de uma linguagem comum entre nossos governos e organiza????es formadoras e depois se dedica a apresentar alguns elementos contextualizadores da atua????o da Escola Nacional de Administra????o P??blica (ENAP ??? Brasil) no que diz respeito ?? forma????o e capacita????o de dirigentes p??blicos