Estudo dos impactos do corte seletivo de árvores na diversidade genética e demografia de população de araucaria angustifolia, utilizando modelagem ecogene

Pós-graduação em Agronomia - FEIS

Seasonal variation in the fate of seeds under contrasting logging regimes

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Distributional potential of the Triatoma brasiliensis species complex at present and under scenarios of future climate conditions

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Coupled scalar fields oscillons and breathers in some lorentz violating scenarios

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Scalar scenarios contributing to (g-2) mu with enhanced Yukawa couplings

In this work we address contributions from scalars to (g-2)μ. In order to explain the recently measured deviation by the BNL experiment on (g-2)μ, it is necessary that these scalars are either light or couple strongly with muons. Here we explore this last possibility. We show that a scalar with mass of the order of 102 GeV provides significant contribution to (g-2)μ if the Yukawa coupling is about 10-1. We suggest scenarios where this comes about naturally. ©2001 The American Physical Society.

Benefit Cost Scenarios of Potential Oral Rabies Vaccination for Skunks in California

Scenario-based analyses were computed for benefits and costs linked with hypothetical oral rabies vaccination (ORV) campaigns to contain or eliminate skunk-variant rabies in skunks (Mephitis mephitis) in California, USA. Scenario 1 assumed baiting eight zones (43,388 km2 total) that comprised 73% of known skunk rabies locations in the state. Scenario 2 also assumed baiting these eight zones, but further assumed that added benefits would result from preventing the spread of skunk-variant rabies into Los Angeles County, USA. Scenarios assumed a fixed bait cost ($1.24 each) but varied campaigns (one, two and three annual ORV applications), densities of baits (37.5/km2, 75/km2 and 150/km2), levels of prevention (50%, 75%, and 100%), and contingency expenditures if rabies recurred (20%, 40%, and 60% of campaign costs). Prorating potential annual benefits during a 12-yr time horizon yielded benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) between 0.16 and 2.91 and between 0.34 and 6.35 for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Economic issues relevant to potentially managing skunk-variant rabies with ORV are discussed.

RegCM3 nested in HadAM3 scenarios A2 and B2: projected changes in extratropical cyclogenesis, temperature and precipitation over the South Atlantic Ocean

The RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model-version 3) was nested in HadAM3 model to simulate present (1975-1989, referred hereafter as RegHad) and two future climate scenarios (A2 and B2 from 2071 to 2085, referred as RegA2 and RegB2) over the South America (SA) and South Atlantic Ocean (SAO). Projected changes in the air temperature, precipitation, low level circulation and cyclogenesis climatology were investigated. The cyclogenesis were identified using an automatic scheme for tracking based on the minimum of relative vorticity (zeta) from 10-m height wind. During summer, a general decrease (increase) in the precipitation is projected by RegA2 and RegB2 over the northeastern SA (center-west and south Brazil, north Argentina and Uruguay). For winter, an anomalous low level anticyclonic circulation is associated with the reduction in the rainfall over the central part of southern Brazil in RegA2 and RegB2 scenarios. Similar to HadAM3, RegCM3 projects larger warming in A2 scenario. For the present climate, when compared to HadAM3, RegHad defines better both the location of the main cyclogenetic areas and its annual cycle near southwestern SAO. The projections indicate a reduction in the total number of cyclones of -7.2% and -4.7% for RegA2 and RegB2, respectively, while HadAM3 reduction is -4.5% for both scenarios. The decrease is larger for initially intense cyclones (zeta <=-<= 2.5 x 10(-5) s-(1)): -20.9% (RegA2) and -11.3% (RegB2). For the lifetime, distance traveled and mean velocity of the cyclones, the A2 and B2 scenarios present mean values close to the present climate ( 3 days, 1900 km, and 9 m s(-1), respectively). Regarding the initial mean vorticity of the systems, RegB2 simulates values similar to the present climate, but they are initially weaker in RegA2. In general, RegA2 and RegB2 show a large decrease in the number of cyclones over the southern SAO due to an anticyclonic anomaly covering SAO between 30-55A degrees S. The reduction is larger in the scenario with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases (RegA2).

Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Stochastic methods based on time-series modeling combined with geostatistics can be useful tools to describe the variability of water-table levels in time and space and to account for uncertainty. Monitoring water-level networks can give information about the dynamic of the aquifer domain in both dimensions. Time-series modeling is an elegant way to treat monitoring data without the complexity of physical mechanistic models. Time-series model predictions can be interpolated spatially, with the spatial differences in water-table dynamics determined by the spatial variation in the system properties and the temporal variation driven by the dynamics of the inputs into the system. An integration of stochastic methods is presented, based on time-series modeling and geostatistics as a framework to predict water levels for decision making in groundwater management and land-use planning. The methodology is applied in a case study in a Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) outcrop area located in the southeastern part of Brazil. Communication of results in a clear and understandable form, via simulated scenarios, is discussed as an alternative, when translating scientific knowledge into applications of stochastic hydrogeology in large aquifers with limited monitoring network coverage like the GAS.

Evaluation of impacts of climate change and local stressors on the biotechnological potential of marine macroalgae: a brief theoretical discussion of likely scenarios

Climate change can be associated with variations in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures and precipitation events on the local and regional scales. Along coastal areas, flooding associated with increased occupation has seriously impacted products and services generated by marine life, in particular the biotechnological potential that macroalgae hold. Therefore, this paper analyzes the available information on the taxonomy, ecology and physiology of macroalgae and discusses the impacts of climate change and local stress on the biotechnological potential of Brazilian macroalgae. Based on data compiled from a series of floristic and ecological works, we note the disappearance in some Brazilian regions of major groups of biotechnological interest. In some cases, the introduction of exotic species has been documented, as well as expansion of the distribution range of economically important species. We also verify an increase in the similarities between the Brazilian phycogeographic provinces, although they still remain different. It is possible that these changes have resulted from the warming of South Atlantic water, as observed for its surface in southeastern Brazilian, mainly during the winter. However, unplanned urbanization of coastal areas can also produce similar biodiversity losses, which requires efforts to generate long-term temporal data on the composition, community structure and physiology of macroalgae.

Augmented reality in sport scenarios using cameras mounted on a tripod

[ES] In this paper we address the problem of inserting virtual content in a video sequence. The method we propose uses just image information. We perform primitive tracking, camera calibration, real and virtual camera synchronisation and finally rendering to insert the virtual content in the real video sequence. To simplify the calibration step we assume that cameras are mounted on a tripod (which is a common situation in practise). The primitive tracking procedure, which uses lines and circles as primitives, is performed by means of a CART (Classification and Regression Tree). Finally, the virtual and real camera synchronisation and rendering is performed using functions of OpenGL (Open Graphic Library). We have applied the method proposed to sport event scenarios, specifically, soccer matches. In order to illustrate its performance, it has been applied to real HD (High Definition) video sequences. The quality of the proposed method is validated by inserting virtual elements in such HD video sequence.

EoR in alternative cosmological scenarios

The aim of this Thesis is to investigate the possibility that the observations related to the epoch of reionization can probe not only the evolution of the IGM state, but also the cosmological background in which this process occurs. In fact, the history of the IGM ionization is indeed affected by the evolution of the sources of ionizing photons that, under the assumption of a structure formation paradigm determined by the hierarchic growth of the matter uctuations, results strongly dependent on the characteristics of the background universe. For the purpose of our investigation, we have analysed the reionization history in innovative cosmological frameworks, still in agreement with the recent observational tests related to the SNIa and the CMB probes, comparing our results with the reionization scenario predicted by the commonly used LCDM cosmology. In particular, in this Thesis we have considered two different alternative universes. The first one is a at universe dominated at late epochs by a dynamic dark energy component, characterized by an equation of state evolving in time. The second cosmological framework we have assumed is a LCDM characterized by a primordial overdensity field having a non-Gaussian probability distribution. The reionization scenario have been investigated, in this Thesis, through semi-analytic approaches based on the hierarichic growth of the matter uctuations and on suitable assumptions concerning the ionization and the recombination of the IGM. We make predictions for the evolution and the distribution of the HII regions, and for the global features of reionization, that can be constrained by future observations. Finally, we brie y discuss the possible future prospects of this Thesis work.

Development of advanced tools and methods for the assessment and management of risk due to atypical major accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification has become progressively more difficult to achieve, as witnessed by several major accidents that took place in Europe, such as the Ammonium Nitrate explosion at Toulouse (2001) and the vapour cloud explosion at Buncefield (2005), whose accident scenarios were not considered by their site safety case. Furthermore, the rapid renewal in the industrial technology has brought about the need to upgrade hazard identification methodologies. Accident scenarios of emerging technologies, which are not still properly identified, may remain unidentified until they take place for the first time. The consideration of atypical scenarios deviating from normal expectations of unwanted events or worst case reference scenarios is thus extremely challenging. A specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was developed as a complementary tool to bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide an easier but comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, by systematizing information from early signals of risk related to past events, near misses and inherent studies. DyPASI was validated on the two examples of new and emerging technologies: Liquefied Natural Gas regasification and Carbon Capture and Storage. The study broadened the knowledge on the related emerging risks and, at the same time, demonstrated that DyPASI is a valuable tool to obtain a complete and updated overview of potential hazards. Moreover, in order to tackle underlying accident causes of atypical events, three methods for the development of early warning indicators were assessed: the Resilience-based Early Warning Indicator (REWI) method, the Dual Assurance method and the Emerging Risk Key Performance Indicator method. REWI was found to be the most complementary and effective of the three, demonstrating that its synergy with DyPASI would be an adequate strategy to improve hazard identification methodologies towards the capture of atypical accident scenarios.

Opportunistic Data Gathering and Dissemination in Urban Scenarios

In the era of the Internet of Everything, a user with a handheld or wearable device equipped with sensing capability has become a producer as well as a consumer of information and services. The more powerful these devices get, the more likely it is that they will generate and share content locally, leading to the presence of distributed information sources and the diminishing role of centralized servers. As of current practice, we rely on infrastructure acting as an intermediary, providing access to the data. However, infrastructure-based connectivity might not always be available or the best alternative. Moreover, it is often the case where the data and the processes acting upon them are of local scopus. Answers to a query about a nearby object, an information source, a process, an experience, an ability, etc. could be answered locally without reliance on infrastructure-based platforms. The data might have temporal validity limited to or bounded to a geographical area and/or the social context where the user is immersed in. In this envisioned scenario users could interact locally without the need for a central authority, hence, the claim of an infrastructure-less, provider-less platform. The data is owned by the users and consulted locally as opposed to the current approach of making them available globally and stay on forever. From a technical viewpoint, this network resembles a Delay/Disruption Tolerant Network where consumers and producers might be spatially and temporally decoupled exchanging information with each other in an adhoc fashion. To this end, we propose some novel data gathering and dissemination strategies for use in urban-wide environments which do not rely on strict infrastructure mediation. While preserving the general aspects of our study and without loss of generality, we focus our attention toward practical applicative scenarios which help us capture the characteristics of opportunistic communication networks.

Cascading events triggering industrial accidents: quantitative assessment of NaTech and domino scenarios

The so called cascading events, which lead to high-impact low-frequency scenarios are rising concern worldwide. A chain of events result in a major industrial accident with dreadful (and often unpredicted) consequences. Cascading events can be the result of the realization of an external threat, like a terrorist attack a natural disaster or of “domino effect”. During domino events the escalation of a primary accident is driven by the propagation of the primary event to nearby units, causing an overall increment of the accident severity and an increment of the risk associated to an industrial installation. Also natural disasters, like intense flooding, hurricanes, earthquake and lightning are found capable to enhance the risk of an industrial area, triggering loss of containment of hazardous materials and in major accidents. The scientific community usually refers to those accidents as “NaTechs”: natural events triggering industrial accidents. In this document, a state of the art of available approaches to the modelling, assessment, prevention and management of domino and NaTech events is described. On the other hand, the relevant work carried out during past studies still needs to be consolidated and completed, in order to be applicable in a real industrial framework. New methodologies, developed during my research activity, aimed at the quantitative assessment of domino and NaTech accidents are presented. The tools and methods provided within this very study had the aim to assist the progress toward a consolidated and universal methodology for the assessment and prevention of cascading events, contributing to enhance safety and sustainability of the chemical and process industry.