High or low initial setting price?: Initial setting price as prediction of intention to bid in on line auctions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Mortalidade por doenças infecciosas e parasitárias em Salvador - Bahia: evolução e diferenciais intra-urbanos segundo condições de vida

Analisa-se a evolução da mortalidade por DIP em Salvador-BA e seus diferenciais intra-urbanos mediante estudo de série temporal e de agregados espaciais, nos anos noventa. O DATASUS e declarações de óbitos foram as fontes de dados. Na análise temporal, empregou-se mortalidade proporcional, taxa de mortalidade e razão de mortalidade padronizada (RMP). No estudo espacial, analisou-se as taxas de mortalidade por DIP segundo um índice de condições de vida (ICV). Entre 1991 e 1995, a mortalidade proporcional por DIP foi de 8,3% e o risco de morrer variou entre 55,9 e 34,0 por 100 mil habitantes. No período seguinte, a variação foi entre 52,8 e 41,1 por 100 mil habitantes. A razão de mortalidade padronizada por doenças infecciosas e parasitárias em 1998 foi de 1,3. As doenças infecciosas intestinais continuam sendo uma das principais causas de morte desse grupo. As áreas da cidade onde as condições de vida eram mais baixas concentravam as maiores taxas de mortalidade por DIP. A despeito do declínio, ainda existe um excesso de mortalidade por DIP em Salvador. O modelo de desenvolvimento do país e a reemergência de algumas doenças podem estar contribuindo para este padrão.

Pesquisa de anticorpos anti Toxoplasma gondii em fluidos intra-oculares (humor vítreo e humor aquoso) de pacientes com toxoplasmose ocular, na cidade de Belém, PA

Foi realizada pesquisa de anticorpos IgG, IgM e IgA anti-Toxoplasma gondii no soro e fluidos intra-oculares (humor aquoso e vítreo) de pacientes com toxoplasmose ocular. A partir dos resultados obtidos verificou-se que anticorpos IgG e IgA intraocular anti-Toxoplasma gondii podem vir a ser importantes marcadores no diagnóstico de toxoplasmose ocular.

Correction of the anisotropy in resistivity: application to pore pressure prediction

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Geológica (Georrecursos)

Modificações na prevalência das lesões intra-epiteliais escamosas cervicais e dos fatores de risco em pacientes HIV/AIDS atendidas em serviço especializado no sul do Brasil nos períodos 1995-1999 e 2006-2007

O objetivo deste trabalho foi estudar mudanças na prevalência de lesões intra-epiteliais escamosas cervicais entre mulheres HIV-1 positivas após a introdução da terapia antiretroviral altamente eficaz e avaliar modificações na prevalência de fatores de risco para lesões intra-epiteliais escamosas cervicais. Foram estudadas 50 pacientes em 1995-1999 e 120 pacientes em 2006-2007. Coletaram-se dados demográficos, comportamentais, laboratoriais. Calculou-se a prevalência de lesões intra-epiteliais escamosas cervicais entre os dois períodos, assim como as prevalências dos outros fatores de risco. No primeiro período, encontrou-se uma prevalência de lesões intra-epiteliais escamosas cervicais de 66% e no segundo de 43% (p=0,007). A média do CD4 em 1995-1999 foi de 275,71 (DP 283,23); a média do CD4 em 2006-2007 foi de 463,32 (DP 231.90), (p=0,001). Houve mudanças significativas nos fatores idade, cor, estado conjugal e fumo entre os dois períodos. A diminuição da prevalência de lesões intra-epiteliais escamosas cervicais pode estar relacionada ao uso da estratégia de terapia antiretroviral altamente eficaz assim como à mudança de fatores de risco para lesões intra-epiteliais escamosas cervicais ao longo do tempo.

Creation of a web application for smart park system and parking prediction study for system integration

In the last few years, we have observed an exponential increasing of the information systems, and parking information is one more example of them. The needs of obtaining reliable and updated information of parking slots availability are very important in the goal of traffic reduction. Also parking slot prediction is a new topic that has already started to be applied. San Francisco in America and Santander in Spain are examples of such projects carried out to obtain this kind of information. The aim of this thesis is the study and evaluation of methodologies for parking slot prediction and the integration in a web application, where all kind of users will be able to know the current parking status and also future status according to parking model predictions. The source of the data is ancillary in this work but it needs to be understood anyway to understand the parking behaviour. Actually, there are many modelling techniques used for this purpose such as time series analysis, decision trees, neural networks and clustering. In this work, the author explains the best techniques at this work, analyzes the result and points out the advantages and disadvantages of each one. The model will learn the periodic and seasonal patterns of the parking status behaviour, and with this knowledge it can predict future status values given a date. The data used comes from the Smart Park Ontinyent and it is about parking occupancy status together with timestamps and it is stored in a database. After data acquisition, data analysis and pre-processing was needed for model implementations. The first test done was with the boosting ensemble classifier, employed over a set of decision trees, created with C5.0 algorithm from a set of training samples, to assign a prediction value to each object. In addition to the predictions, this work has got measurements error that indicates the reliability of the outcome predictions being correct. The second test was done using the function fitting seasonal exponential smoothing tbats model. Finally as the last test, it has been tried a model that is actually a combination of the previous two models, just to see the result of this combination. The results were quite good for all of them, having error averages of 6.2, 6.6 and 5.4 in vacancies predictions for the three models respectively. This means from a parking of 47 places a 10% average error in parking slot predictions. This result could be even better with longer data available. In order to make this kind of information visible and reachable from everyone having a device with internet connection, a web application was made for this purpose. Beside the data displaying, this application also offers different functions to improve the task of searching for parking. The new functions, apart from parking prediction, were: - Park distances from user location. It provides all the distances to user current location to the different parks in the city. - Geocoding. The service for matching a literal description or an address to a concrete location. - Geolocation. The service for positioning the user. - Parking list panel. This is not a service neither a function, is just a better visualization and better handling of the information.

Numerical prediction of diffusion and electric field-induced iron nanoparticle transport

Zero valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI) are considered very promising for the remediation of contaminated soils and groundwaters. However, an important issue related to their limited mobility remains unsolved. Direct current can be used to enhance the nanoparticles transport, based on the same principles of electrokinetic remediation. In this work, a generalized physicochemical model was developed and solved numerically to describe the nZVI transport through porous media under electric field, and with different electrolytes (with different ionic strengths). The model consists of the Nernst–Planck coupled system of equations, which accounts for the mass balance of ionic species in a fluid medium, when both the diffusion and electromigration of the ions are considered. The diffusion and electrophoretic transport of the negatively charged nZVI particles were also considered in the system. The contribution of electroosmotic flow to the overall mass transport was included in the model for all cases. The nZVI effective mobility values in the porous medium are very low (10−7–10−4 cm2 V−1 s−1), due to the counterbalance between the positive electroosmotic flow and the electrophoretic transport of the negatively charged nanoparticles. The higher the nZVI concentration is in the matrix, the higher the aggregation; therefore, low concentration of nZVI suspensions must be used for successful field application.

Development of 3D in vitro models for prediction of hepatic metabolism and toxicity

The development of human cell models that recapitulate hepatic functionality allows the study of metabolic pathways involved in toxicity and disease. The increased biological relevance, cost-effectiveness and high-throughput of cell models can contribute to increase the efficiency of drug development in the pharmaceutical industry. Recapitulation of liver functionality in vitro requires the development of advanced culture strategies to mimic in vivo complexity, such as 3D culture, co-cultures or biomaterials. However, complex 3D models are typically associated with poor robustness, limited scalability and compatibility with screening methods. In this work, several strategies were used to develop highly functional and reproducible spheroid-based in vitro models of human hepatocytes and HepaRG cells using stirred culture systems. In chapter 2, the isolation of human hepatocytes from resected liver tissue was implemented and a liver tissue perfusion method was optimized towards the improvement of hepatocyte isolation and aggregation efficiency, resulting in an isolation protocol compatible with 3D culture. In chapter 3, human hepatocytes were co-cultivated with mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) and the phenotype of both cell types was characterized, showing that MSC acquire a supportive stromal function and hepatocytes retain differentiated hepatic functions, stability of drug metabolism enzymes and higher viability in co-cultures. In chapter 4, a 3D alginate microencapsulation strategy for the differentiation of HepaRG cells was evaluated and compared with the standard 2D DMSO-dependent differentiation, yielding higher differentiation efficiency, comparable levels of drug metabolism activity and significantly improved biosynthetic activity. The work developed in this thesis provides novel strategies for 3D culture of human hepatic cell models, which are reproducible, scalable and compatible with screening platforms. The phenotypic and functional characterization of the in vitro systems performed contributes to the state of the art of human hepatic cell models and can be applied to the improvement of pre-clinical drug development efficiency of the process, model disease and ultimately, development of cell-based therapeutic strategies for liver failure.

Credit default swap (CDS) prediction model & trading strategy

This project focuses on the study of different explanatory models for the behavior of CDS security, such as Fixed-Effect Model, GLS Random-Effect Model, Pooled OLS and Quantile Regression Model. After determining the best fitness model, trading strategies with long and short positions in CDS have been developed. Due to some specifications of CDS, I conclude that the quantile regression is the most efficient model to estimate the data. The P&L and Sharpe Ratio of the strategy are analyzed using a backtesting analogy, where I conclude that, mainly for non-financial companies, the model allows traders to take advantage of and profit from arbitrages.

Prediction of hyperglycemia in preterm newborn infants

Many conditions are associated with hyperglycemia in preterm neonates because they are very susceptible to changes in carbohydrate homeostasis. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of hyperglycemia in preterm infants undergoing glucose infusion during the first week of life, and to enumerate the main variables predictive of hyperglycemia. This prospective study (during 1994) included 40 preterm neonates (gestational age <37 weeks); 511 determinations of glycemic status were made in these infants (average 12.8/infant), classified by gestational age, birth weight, glucose infusion rate and clinical status at the time of determination (based on clinical and laboratory parameters). The clinical status was classified as stable or unstable, as an indication of the stability or instability of the mechanisms governing glucose homeostasis at the time of determination of blood glucose; 59 episodes of hyperglycemia (11.5%) were identified. A case-control study was used (case = hyperglycemia; control = normoglycemia) to derive a model for predicting glycemia. The risk factors considered were gestational age (<=31 vs. >31 weeks), birth weight (<=1500 vs. >1500 g), glucose infusion rate (<=6 vs. >6 mg/kg/min) and clinical status (stable vs. unstable). Multivariate analysis by logistic regression gave the following mathematical model for predicting the probability of hyperglycemia: 1/exp{-3.1437 + 0.5819(GA) + 0.9234(GIR) + 1.0978(Clinical status)} The main predictive variables in our study, in increasing order of importance, were gestational age, glucose infusion rate and, the clinical status (stable or unstable) of the preterm newborn infant. The probability of hyperglycemia ranged from 4.1% to 36.9%.

Implementação da Equipa de Emergência Médica Intra-hospitalar nos hospitais do Serviço Nacional de Saúde : análise de custo-efetividade perante a incidência da paragem cárdio-respiratória intra-hospitalar

RESUMO - Introdução: No âmbito das emergências intra-hospitalares investigou-se a hipótese da presença da Equipa Emergência Médica Intra-hospitalar (EEMI) (DGS, 2010) num Centro Hospitalar (CH), contribuir para a redução do número de mortos por Paragem Cárdiorespiratória (PCR) intra-hospitalar, quando comparado com outro CH dotado de uma equipa tradicional de resposta à PCR. Metodologia: Tratou-se de um estudo observacional, retrospetivo (2010 a 2014), com base nos dados do Grupo de Diagnóstico Homogéneo (GDH), analisado numa perspetiva de custo-efetividade no impacto sobre incidência de PCR e taxa de mortalidade. Resultados: Observou-se que o CH com EEMI apresentou uma Redução Risco Absoluto (RRA) de 9,01% de morte por PCR. A taxa de mortalidade calculada foi de 2,82 casos por 1000 episódios de internamento em que a incidência de PCR foi de 28,24 casos por cada 10 000 habitantes, duas vezes menor que CH em comparação. Quando introduzidas manobras de Ressuscitação Cárdiopulmonar (RCP), o mesmo CH teve um maior número de PCR revertidas, com uma taxa de mortalidade 2 vezes menor que o CH sem EEMI. Conclusão: Resultados demonstraram que os dois CH apresentaram riscos diferentes, em que a probabilidade do doente hospitalizado de morrer após ocorrência de PCR foi menor no grupo exposto à EEMI, com OR = 0,496 [IC 95% (0,372 a 0,662)] para dados populacionais (p = 0,0013), e OR = 0,618 [IC 95% (0,298 a 1,281)] para dados individuais, (p = 0,194). Face a melhores resultados em Saúde, considerou-se a implementação da EEMI, uma medida custo-efetiva, uma vez que o principal requisito traduz-se por reorganização das equipas tradicionais para uma vertente de prevenção da PCR.

Prenatal tracheal ligation or intra-amniotic administration of surfactant or dexamethasone prevents some structural changes in the pulmonary arteries of surgically created diaphragmatic hernia in rabbits

PURPOSE: Characterization of the structural changes occurring in the pulmonary arteries resulting from surgically produced congenital diaphragmatic hernia in rabbits, with particular emphasis on the preventive effects of prenatal tracheal ligation or administration of intra-amniotic dexamethasone or surfactant. METHODS: Twenty rabbit fetuses underwent surgical creation of a left-sided congenital diaphragmatic hernia on the 24th or 25th gestational day. They were divided according to the following procedures: congenital diaphragmatic hernia (n = 5), congenital diaphragmatic hernia plus tracheal ligation (n = 5), congenital diaphragmatic hernia plus intra-amniotic administration of dexamethasone 0.4 mg (n = 5) or surfactant (Curosurf 40 mg, n = 5). On gestational day 30, all the fetuses were delivered by caesarean section and killed. A control group consisted of five nonoperated fetuses. Histomorphometric analysis of medial thickness, cell nuclei density, and elastic fiber density of pulmonary arterial walls was performed. RESULTS: Arteries with an external diameter > 100 mum have a decreased medial thickness, lower cell nuclei density, and greater elastic fiber density when compared with arteries with external diameter <= 100 mum. Congenital diaphragmatic hernia promoted a significant decrease in medial thickness and an increase in cell nuclei density in artery walls with external diameter > 100 mum. Prenatal treatments with tracheal ligation or intra-amniotic administration of dexamethasone or surfactant prevented these changes. In arteries with external diameter <= 100 mum, congenital diaphragmatic hernia promoted a significant increase in medial thickness and in cell nuclei density and a decrease in elastic fiber density. The prenatal treatments with tracheal ligation or intra-amniotic administration of dexamethasone or surfactant prevented these changes, although no effect was observed in elastic fiber density in the congenital diaphragmatic hernia plus dexamethasone group. CONCLUSIONS: Congenital diaphragmatic hernia promoted different structural changes for large or small arteries. The prenatal intra-amniotic administration of dexamethasone or surfactant had positive effects on the lung structural changes promoted by congenital diaphragmatic hernia, and these effects were comparable to the changes induced by tracheal ligation.

Dynamic range prediction for an electric vehicle

Electric Vehicles (EVs) have limited energy storage capacity and the maximum autonomy range is strongly dependent of the driver's behaviour. Due to the fact of that batteries cannot be recharged quickly during a journey, it is essential that a precise range prediction is available to the driver of the EV. With this information, it is possible to check if the desirable destination is achievable without a stop to charge the batteries, or even, if to reach the destination it is necessary to perform an optimized driving (e.g., cutting the air-conditioning, among others EV parameters). The outcome of this research work is the development of an Electric Vehicle Assistant (EVA). This is an application for mobile devices that will help users to take efficient decisions about route planning, charging management and energy efficiency. Therefore, it will contribute to foster EVs adoption as a new paradigm in the transportation sector.

Integration of geometric consistency contributory factors in three-leg junctions collision prediction models of Portuguese two-lane national highways

This paper aims at developing a collision prediction model for three-leg junctions located in national roads (NR) in Northern Portugal. The focus is to identify factors that contribute for collision type crashes in those locations, mainly factors related to road geometric consistency, since literature is scarce on those, and to research the impact of three modeling methods: generalized estimating equations, random-effects negative binomial models and random-parameters negative binomial models, on the factors of those models. The database used included data published between 2008 and 2010 of 177 three-leg junctions. It was split in three groups of contributing factors which were tested sequentially for each of the adopted models: at first only traffic, then, traffic and the geometric characteristics of the junctions within their area of influence; and, lastly, factors which show the difference between the geometric characteristics of the segments boarding the junctionsâ area of influence and the segment included in that area were added. The choice of the best modeling technique was supported by the result of a cross validation made to ascertain the best model for the three sets of researched contributing factors. The models fitted with random-parameters negative binomial models had the best performance in the process. In the best models obtained for every modeling technique, the characteristics of the road environment, including proxy measures for the geometric consistency, along with traffic volume, contribute significantly to the number of collisions. Both the variables concerning junctions and the various national highway segments in their area of influence, as well as variations from those characteristics concerning roadway segments which border the already mentioned area of influence have proven their relevance and, therefore, there is a rightful need to incorporate the effect of geometric consistency in the three-leg junctions safety studies.

Using data mining for prediction of hospital length of stay: an application of the CRISP-DM Methodology

Hospitals are nowadays collecting vast amounts of data related with patient records. All this data hold valuable knowledge that can be used to improve hospital decision making. Data mining techniques aim precisely at the extraction of useful knowledge from raw data. This work describes an implementation of a medical data mining project approach based on the CRISP-DM methodology. Recent real-world data, from 2000 to 2013, were collected from a Portuguese hospital and related with inpatient hospitalization. The goal was to predict generic hospital Length Of Stay based on indicators that are commonly available at the hospitalization process (e.g., gender, age, episode type, medical specialty). At the data preparation stage, the data were cleaned and variables were selected and transformed, leading to 14 inputs. Next, at the modeling stage, a regression approach was adopted, where six learning methods were compared: Average Prediction, Multiple Regression, Decision Tree, Artificial Neural Network ensemble, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. The best learning model was obtained by the Random Forest method, which presents a high quality coefficient of determination value (0.81). This model was then opened by using a sensitivity analysis procedure that revealed three influential input attributes: the hospital episode type, the physical service where the patient is hospitalized and the associated medical specialty. Such extracted knowledge confirmed that the obtained predictive model is credible and with potential value for supporting decisions of hospital managers.