879 resultados para Impact of compositional constraints-on correlation and covariance


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This research paper assesses the likely economic impact of climate change on the health sector in Trinidad and Tobago. The analysis, however, was limited to the economic impact of only a few climate-related diseases1 for which data were available. The approach utilized in this paper makes for easy extrapolation once the data on the other climate-related illnesses become available so that a full impact assessment can be carried out.

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Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty alleviation, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of St. Kitts and Nevis (SKN). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations for possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation.

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Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty reduction, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of the British Virgin Islands (BVI). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations of possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation. A multi-pronged approach is employed in valuing the marine and coastal sector. Direct use and indirect use values are estimated. The amount of economic activity an ecosystem service generates in the local economy underpins estimation of direct use values. Tourism and fisheries are valued using the framework developed by the World Resources Institute. Biodiversity is valued in terms of the ecological functions it provides, such as climate regulation, shoreline protection, water supply erosion control and sediment retention, and biological control, among others. Estimates of future losses to the coastal zone from climate change are determined by considering: (1) the effect of sea level rise on coastal lands; and (2) the effect of a rise in sea surface temperature (SST) on coastal waters. Discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4% are employed to analyse all loss estimates in present value terms. The overall value for the coastal and marine sector is USD $1,606 million (mn). This is almost 2% larger than BVI’s 2008 GDP. Tourism and recreation comprise almost two-thirds of the value of the sector. By 2100, the effects of climate change on coastal lands are projected to be $3,988.6 mn, and $2,832.9 mn under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. In present value terms, if A2 occurs, losses range from $108.1-$1,596.8 mn and if B2 occurs, losses range from $74.1-$1,094.1 mn, depending on the discount rate used. Estimated costs of a rise in SST in 2050 indicate that they vary between $1,178.0 and $1,884.8 mn. Assuming a discount rate of 4%, losses range from $226.6 mn for the B2 scenario to $363.0 mn for the A2 scenario. If a discount rate of 1% is assumed, estimated losses are much greater, ranging from $775.6-$1,241.0 mn. Factoring in projected climate change impacts, the net value of the coastal and marine sector suggests that the costs of climate change significantly reduce the value of the sector, particularly under the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios for discount rates of 1% and 2%. In contrast, the sector has a large, positive, though declining trajectory, for all years when a 4% discount rate is employed. Since the BVI emits minimal greenhouse gases, but will be greatly affected by climate change, the report focuses on adaptation as opposed to mitigation strategies. The options shortlisted are: (1) enhancing monitoring of all coastal waters to provide early warning alerts of bleaching and other marine events; (2) introducing artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) introducing alternative tourist attractions; (4) providing retraining for displaced tourism workers; and (5) revising policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities. All adaptation options considered are quite justifiable in national terms; each had benefit-cost ratios greater than 1.

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Over the last decades, the prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) has been increasing globally such that nowadays the disease constitutes an important outcome related to early mortality among adults. In parallel with the high prevalence, healthcare costs related to DM treatment have increased significantly, exacerbating its burden on modern society. The scientific literature points out that obesity and physical inactivity have a central role in the development of most DM cases. In fact, either physical exercise practice or an increase in the level of physical activity, constitute relevant tools in the guidelines for treatment of the disease. On the other hand, the effect of physical activity on the economic consequences of DM is not completely clear. The identification of the actual burden of lifestyle changes on the reduction of healthcare costs related to DM is relevant, primarily for developing nations, where it could represent a cheaper strategy for treating the disease and its complications than paying for drug treatment, which is commonly related to collateral effects. That being said, the prevention of DM and other diseases and consequently the mitigation of the costs related to these outcomes seem to depend essentially on the promotion of healthy habits. The aim of the present review was therefore to discuss recent evidence on the effects of physical activity/exercise on mitigation of health care cost related to DM.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamentode Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Subduction zones are one of the most characteristic features of planet Earth. Convergent plate junctions exert enormous influence on the formation and recycling of continental crust, and they are also responsible for major mineral resources and earthquakes, which are of crucial importance for society. A subduction-related geologic unit containing high-pressure rocks occurs in the Barragan area (Valle del Cauca Department) on the western flank of the Central Cordillera of the Colombian Andes. Blueschists and amphibolites, serpentinized meta-ultramafic rocks, graphite-chlorite-muscovite-quartz schists, protocataclasites, and graphite-chlorite-andalusite-andesine-garnet-muscovite +/- titanite schists are exposed in this region. In spite of the petrotectonic importance of blueschists, the high-pressure metamorphism of the Central Cordillera of Colombia has been rarely studied. New geochemical data indicate that protoliths of the blueschist- and amphibolite-facies rocks possessed normal mid-ocean ridge basalt bulk compositions. Ar-40/Ar-39 geochronology for a metapelite rock associated with the blueschists shows a plateau age of similar to 120 million years. We suggest that high-P/T conditions were present from similar to 150 to 125 Ma, depending on the model of generation and exhumation considered.

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Land degradation causes great changes in the soil biological properties. The process of degradation may decrease soil microbial biomass and consequently decrease soil microbial activity. The study was conducted out during 2009 and 2010 at the four sites of land under native vegetation (NV), moderately degraded land (LDL), highly degraded land (HDL) and land under restoration for four years (RL) to evaluate changes in soil microbial biomass and activity in lands with different degradation levels in comparison with both land under native vegetation and land under restoration in Northeast Brazil. Soil samples were collected at 0-10 cm depth. Soil organic carbon (SOC), soil microbial biomass C (MBC) and N (MBN), soil respiration (SR), and hydrolysis of fluorescein diacetate (FDA) and dehydrogenase (DHA) activities were analyzed. After two years of evaluation, soil MBC, MBN, FDA and DHA had higher values in the NV, followed by the RL. The decreases of soil microbial biomass and enzyme activities in the degraded lands were approximately 8-10 times as large as those found in the NV. However, after land restoration, the MBC and MBN increased approximately 5-fold and 2-fold, respectively, compared with the HDL. The results showed that land degradation produced a strong decrease in soil microbial biomass. However, land restoration may promote short- and long-term increases in soil microbial biomass.

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Stress is the most commonly reported precipitating factor for seizures in patients with epilepsy. Despite compelling anecdotal evidence for stress-induced seizures, animal models of the phenomena are sparse and possible mechanisms are unclear. Here, we tested the hypothesis that increased levels of the stress-associated hormone corticosterone ( CORT) would increase epileptiform activity and spontaneous seizure frequency in mice rendered epileptic following pilocarpine-induced status epilepticus. We monitored video-EEG activity in pilocarpine-treated mice 24/7 for a period of four or more weeks, during which animals were serially treated with CORT or vehicle. CORT increased the frequency and duration of epileptiform events within the first 24 hours of treatment, and this effect persisted for up to two weeks following termination of CORT injections. Interestingly, vehicle injection produced a transient spike in CORT levels - presumably due to the stress of injection - and a modest but significant increase in epileptiform activity. Neither CORT nor vehicle treatment significantly altered seizure frequency; although a small subset of animals did appear responsive. Taken together, our findings indicate that treatment of epileptic animals with exogenous CORT designed to mimic chronic stress can induce a persistent increase in interictal epileptiform activity.

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OBJECTIVE: Despite the high prevalence of substance abuse and mood disorders among victimized children and adolescents, few studies have investigated the association of these disorders with treatment adherence, represented by numbers of visits per month and treatment duration. We aimed to investigate the effects of substance abuse and mood disorders on treatment adherence and duration in a special programfor victimized children in Sao Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: A total of 351 participants were evaluated for psychiatric disorders and classified into one of five groups: mood disorders alone; substance abuse disorders alone; mood and substance abuse disorders; other psychiatric disorders; no psychiatric disorders. The associations between diagnostic classification and adherence to treatment and the duration of program participation were tested with logistic regression and survival analysis, respectively. RESULTS: Children with mood disorders alone had the highest rate of adherence (79.5%); those with substance abuse disorders alone had the lowest (40%); and those with both disorders had an intermediate rate of adherence (50%). Those with other psychiatric disorders and no psychiatric disorders also had high rates of adherence (75.6% and 72.9%, respectively). Living with family significantly increased adherence for children with substance abuse disorders but decreased adherence for those with no psychiatric disorders. The diagnostic correlates of duration of participation were similar to those for adherence. CONCLUSIONS: Mood and substance abuse disorders were strong predictive factors for treatment adherence and duration, albeit in opposite directions. Living with family seems to have a positive effect on treatment adherence for patients with substance abuse disorders. More effective treatment is needed for victimized substance-abusing youth.

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OBJECTIVE: Despite the high prevalence of substance abuse and mood disorders among victimized children and adolescents, few studies have investigated the association of these disorders with treatment adherence, represented by numbers of visits per month and treatment duration. We aimed to investigate the effects of substance abuse and mood disorders on treatment adherence and duration in a special program for victimized children in São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: A total of 351 participants were evaluated for psychiatric disorders and classified into one of five groups: mood disorders alone; substance abuse disorders alone; mood and substance abuse disorders; other psychiatric disorders; no psychiatric disorders. The associations between diagnostic classification and adherence to treatment and the duration of program participation were tested with logistic regression and survival analysis, respectively. RESULTS: Children with mood disorders alone had the highest rate of adherence (79.5%); those with substance abuse disorders alone had the lowest (40%); and those with both disorders had an intermediate rate of adherence (50%). Those with other psychiatric disorders and no psychiatric disorders also had high rates of adherence (75.6% and 72.9%, respectively). Living with family significantly increased adherence for children with substance abuse disorders but decreased adherence for those with no psychiatric disorders. The diagnostic correlates of duration of participation were similar to those for adherence. CONCLUSIONS: Mood and substance abuse disorders were strong predictive factors for treatment adherence and duration, albeit in opposite directions. Living with family seems to have a positive effect on treatment adherence for patients with substance abuse disorders. More effective treatment is needed for victimized substance-abusing youth

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Since the industrial revolution, the ocean has absorbed around one third of the anthropogenic CO2, which induced a profound alteration of the carbonate system commonly known as ocean acidification. Since the preindustrial times, the average ocean surface water pH has fallen by 0.1 units, from approximately 8.2 to 8.1 and a further decrease of 0.4 pH units is expected for the end of the century. Despite their microscopic size, marine diatoms are bio-geo-chemically a very important group, responsible for the export of massive amount of carbon to deep waters and sediments. The knowledge of the potential effects of ocean acidification on the phytoplankton growth and on biological pump is still at its infancy. This study wants to investigate the effect of ocean acidification on the growth of the diatom Skeletonema marinoi and on its aggregation, using a mechanistic approach. The experiment consisted of two treatments (Present and Future) representing different pCO2 conditions and two sequential experimental phases. During the cell growth phase a culture of S. marinoi was inoculated into transparent bags and the effect of ocean acidification was studied on various growth parameters, including DOC and TEP production. The aggregation phase consisted in the incubation of the cultures into rolling tanks where the sinking of particles through the water column was simulated and aggregation promoted. Since few studies investigated the effect of pH on the growth of S. marinoi and none used pH ranges that are compatible with the OA scenarios, there were no baselines. I have shown here, that OA does not affect the cell growth of S. marinoi, suggesting that the physiology of this species is robust in respect to the changes in the carbonate chemistry expected for the end of the century. Furthermore, according to my results, OA does not affect the aggregation of S. marinoi in a consistent manner, suggesting that this process has a high natural variability but is not influenced by OA in a predictable way. The effect of OA was tested over a variety of factors including the number of aggregates produced, their size and sinking velocity, the algal, bacterial and TEP content. Many of these variables showed significant treatment effects but none of these were consistent between the two experiments.

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This PhD thesis is embedded into the Arctic Study of Tropospheric Aerosol, Clouds and Radiation (ASTAR) and investigates the radiative transfer through Arctic boundary-layer mixed-phase (ABM) clouds. For this purpose airborne spectral solar radiation measurements and simulations of the solar and thermal infrared radiative transfer have been performed. This work reports on measurements with the Spectral Modular Airborne Radiation measurement sysTem (SMART-Albedometer) conducted in the framework of ASTAR in April 2007 close to Svalbard. For ASTAR the SMART-Albedometer was extended to measure spectral radiance. The development and calibration of the radiance measurements are described in this work. In combination with in situ measurements of cloud particle properties provided by the Laboratoire de M¶et¶eorologie Physique (LaMP) and simultaneous airborne lidar measurements by the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) ABM clouds were sampled. The SMART-Albedometer measurements were used to retrieve the cloud thermodynamic phase by three different approaches. A comparison of these results with the in situ and lidar measurements is presented in two case studies. Beside the dominating mixed-phase clouds pure ice clouds were found in cloud gaps and at the edge of a large cloud field. Furthermore the vertical distribution of ice crystals within ABM clouds was investigated. It was found that ice crystals at cloud top are necessary to describe the observed SMART-Albedometer measurements. The impact of ice crystals on the radiative forcing of ABM clouds is in vestigated by extensive radiative transfer simulations. The solar and net radiative forcing was found to depend on the ice crystal size, shape and the mixing ratio of ice crystals and liquid water droplets.

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The present dissertation collects the results of three different research trials which have the common aim to understand the effects of swine welfare (both at farm level and during transport) on the main fresh and dry-cured meat characteristics. The first trial was carried out in order to compare the effects of illumination regimes differing in light duration or light intensity on meat and ham quality of Italian heavy pigs. The results of this trial support the conclusion that, within a moderate range of light intensity and given an appropriate dark period for animal rest, an increase of light duration or intensity above the minimum mandatory levels has no negative impact on carcass composition, meat or long-cured hams quality. The second trial was designed with the aim to investigate the effects of water restriction on growth traits, animal welfare and meat and ham quality of liquid-fed heavy pigs. Overall, the parameters analyzed as concerns growth rate, behavioural traits, blood, as well as carcass, fresh meat and cured hams quality were not affected by the absence of fresh drinking water. However, since liquid feeding did not suppress drinker use or drinker manipulation in the experimental groups, water restriction does not appear to be an applicable method to obtain a reduction of water waste. The third trial, which was carried out in Canada, tested the effectiveness of water sprinkling market-weight pigs (115±10Kg BW) before and after transport in reducing the heat stress experienced under commercial transport conditions. Our results show that the water sprinkling protocol proposed may reduce heat stress during transport and improve pork quality, particularly in specific trailer compartments. This body of research supports the general conclusion that swine welfare could be improved in different scenarios through simple and cost-effective means, without negatively affecting the quality of the main animal-derived products.

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Objectives: The aim of this research was to evaluate the impact of Cardiac Rehabilitation (CR) on risky lifestyles, quality of life, psychopathology, psychological distress and well-being, considering the potential moderating role of depression, anxiety and psychosomatic syndromes on lifestyles modification. The influence of CR on cardiac morbidity and mortality was also evaluated. Methods: The experimental group (N=108), undergoing CR, was compared to a control group (N=85) of patients affected by cardiovascular diseases, not undergoing CR, at baseline and at 1-month, 6- and 12-months follow-ups. The assessment included: the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV, the structured interview based on Diagnostic Criteria for Psychosomatic Research (DCPR), GOSPEL questionnaire on lifestyles, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, Morisky Medication Adherence Scale, MOS 36-Item Short Form Health Survey, Symptom Questionnaire, Psychological Well-Being Scale and 14-items Type D Scale. Results: Compared to the control group, CR was associated to: maintenance of the level of physical activity, improvement of correct dietary behaviors and stress management, enhancement of quality of life and sleep; reduction of the most frequently observed psychiatric diagnoses and psychosomatic syndromes at baseline. On the contrary, CR was not found to be associated with: healthy dietary habits, weight loss and improvement on medications adherence. In addition, there were no relevant effects on sub-clinical psychological distress and well-being, except for personal growth and purpose in life (PWB). Also, CR did not seem to play a protective role against cardiac recurrences. The presence of psychosomatic syndromes and depressive disorders was a mediating factor on the modification of specific lifestyles. Conclusions: The findings highlight the need of a psychosomatic assessment and an evaluation of psychological sub-clinical symptomatology in cardiac rehabilitation, in order to identify and address specific factors potentially associated with the clinical course of the heart disease.