Toward seamless prediction: calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts

The CWRF is developed as a climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) by incorporating numerous improvements in the representation of physical processes and integration of external (top, surface, lateral) forcings that are crucial to climate scales, including interactions between land, atmosphere, and ocean; convection and microphysics; and cloud, aerosol, and radiation; and system consistency throughout all process modules. This extension inherits all WRF functionalities for numerical weather prediction while enhancing the capability for climate modeling. As such, CWRF can be applied seamlessly to weather forecast and climate prediction. The CWRF is built with a comprehensive ensemble of alternative parameterization schemes for each of the key physical processes, including surface (land, ocean), planetary boundary layer, cumulus (deep, shallow), microphysics, cloud, aerosol, and radiation, and their interactions. This facilitates the use of an optimized physics ensemble approach to improve weather or climate prediction along with a reliable uncertainty estimate. The CWRF also emphasizes the societal service capability to provide impactrelevant information by coupling with detailed models of terrestrial hydrology, coastal ocean, crop growth, air quality, and a recently expanded interactive water quality and ecosystem model. This study provides a general CWRF description and basic skill evaluation based on a continuous integration for the period 1979– 2009 as compared with that of WRF, using a 30-km grid spacing over a domain that includes the contiguous United States plus southern Canada and northern Mexico. In addition to advantages of greater application capability, CWRF improves performance in radiation and terrestrial hydrology over WRF and other regional models. Precipitation simulation, however, remains a challenge for all of the tested models.

Evaluation of biospheric components in Earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations: the state-of-the-art

Earth system models (ESMs) are increasing in complexity by incorporating more processes than their predecessors, making them potentially important tools for studying the evolution of climate and associated biogeochemical cycles. However, their coupled behaviour has only recently been examined in any detail, and has yielded a very wide range of outcomes. For example, coupled climate–carbon cycle models that represent land-use change simulate total land carbon stores at 2100 that vary by as much as 600 Pg C, given the same emissions scenario. This large uncertainty is associated with differences in how key processes are simulated in different models, and illustrates the necessity of determining which models are most realistic using rigorous methods of model evaluation. Here we assess the state-of-the-art in evaluation of ESMs, with a particular emphasis on the simulation of the carbon cycle and associated biospheric processes. We examine some of the new advances and remaining uncertainties relating to (i) modern and palaeodata and (ii) metrics for evaluation. We note that the practice of averaging results from many models is unreliable and no substitute for proper evaluation of individual models. We discuss a range of strategies, such as the inclusion of pre-calibration, combined process- and system-level evaluation, and the use of emergent constraints, that can contribute to the development of more robust evaluation schemes. An increasingly data-rich environment offers more opportunities for model evaluation, but also presents a challenge. Improved knowledge of data uncertainties is still necessary to move the field of ESM evaluation away from a "beauty contest" towards the development of useful constraints on model outcomes.

Looking in the wrong place for healthcare improvements: a system dynamics study of an accident and emergency department

Accident and Emergency (A&E) units provide a route for patients requiring urgent admission to acute hospitals. Public concern over long waiting times for admissions motivated this study, whose aim is to explore the factors which contribute to such delays. The paper discusses the formulation and calibration of a system dynamics model of the interaction of demand pattern, A&E resource deployment, other hospital processes and bed numbers; and the outputs of policy analysis runs of the model which vary a number of the key parameters. Two significant findings have policy implications. One is that while some delays to patients are unavoidable, reductions can be achieved by selective augmentation of resources within, and relating to, the A&E unit. The second is that reductions in bed numbers do not increase waiting times for emergency admissions, their effect instead being to increase sharply the number of cancellations of admissions for elective surgery. This suggests that basing A&E policy solely on any single criterion will merely succeed in transferring the effects of a resource deficit to a different patient group.

The Central Nervous System as Target for Antihypertensive Actions of a Proline-Rich Peptide from Bothrops jararaca Venom

Pyroglutamyl proline-rich oligopeptides, present in the venom of the pit viper Bothrops jararaca (Bj-PROs), are the first described naturally occurring inhibitors of the angiotensin I-converting enzyme (ACE). The inhibition of ACE by the decapeptide Bj-PRO-10c (injection of Bj-PRO-10c induced a significant reduction of mean arterial pressure (MAP) together with a decrease of heart rate (HR) in spontaneously hypertensive rats, indicating that Bj-PRO-10c may act on the central nervous system. In agreement with its supposed neuronal action, this peptide dose-dependently evoked elevations of intracellular calcium concentration ([Ca(2+)](i)) in primary culture from postnatal rat brain. The N-terminal sequence of the peptide was not essential for induction of calcium fluxes, while any changes of C-terminal Pro or Ile residues affected Bj-PRO-10c`s activity. Using calcium imaging by confocal microscopy and fluorescence imaging plate reader analysis, we have characterized Bj-PRO-10c-induced [Ca(2+)](i) transients in rat brain cells as being independent from bradykinin-mediated effects and ACE inhibition. Bj-PRO-10c induced pertussis toxin-sensitive G(i/o)-protein activity mediated through a yet unknown receptor, influx and liberation of calcium from intracellular stores, as well as reduction of intracellular cAMP levels. Bj-PRO-10c promoted glutamate and GABA release that may be responsible for its antihypertensive activity and its effect on HR. (C) 2010 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry

An unstructured CVFEM and moving interface algorithm for non-Newtonian Hele-Shaw flows in injection molding

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to develop a novel unstructured simulation approach for injection molding processes described by the Hele-Shaw model. Design/methodology/approach - The scheme involves dual dynamic meshes with active and inactive cells determined from an initial background pointset. The quasi-static pressure solution in each timestep for this evolving unstructured mesh system is approximated using a control volume finite element method formulation coupled to a corresponding modified volume of fluid method. The flow is considered to be isothermal and non-Newtonian. Findings - Supporting numerical tests and performance studies for polystyrene described by Carreau, Cross, Ellis and Power-law fluid models are conducted. Results for the present method are shown to be comparable to those from other methods for both Newtonian fluid and polystyrene fluid injected in different mold geometries. Research limitations/implications - With respect to the methodology, the background pointset infers a mesh that is dynamically reconstructed here, and there are a number of efficiency issues and improvements that would be relevant to industrial applications. For instance, one can use the pointset to construct special bases and invoke a so-called ""meshless"" scheme using the basis. This would require some interesting strategies to deal with the dynamic point enrichment of the moving front that could benefit from the present front treatment strategy. There are also issues related to mass conservation and fill-time errors that might be addressed by introducing suitable projections. The general question of ""rate of convergence"" of these schemes requires analysis. Numerical results here suggest first-order accuracy and are consistent with the approximations made, but theoretical results are not available yet for these methods. Originality/value - This novel unstructured simulation approach involves dual meshes with active and inactive cells determined from an initial background pointset: local active dual patches are constructed ""on-the-fly"" for each ""active point"" to form a dynamic virtual mesh of active elements that evolves with the moving interface.

Development of a sequential injection-square wave voltammetry method for determination of paraquat in water samples employing the hanging mercury drop electrode

This work describes the development and optimization of a sequential injection method to automate the determination of paraquat by square-wave voltammetry employing a hanging mercury drop electrode. Automation by sequential injection enhanced the sampling throughput, improving the sensitivity and precision of the measurements as a consequence of the highly reproducible and efficient conditions of mass transport of the analyte toward the electrode surface. For instance, 212 analyses can be made per hour if the sample/standard solution is prepared off-line and the sequential injection system is used just to inject the solution towards the flow cell. In-line sample conditioning reduces the sampling frequency to 44 h(-1). Experiments were performed in 0.10 M NaCl, which was the carrier solution, using a frequency of 200 Hz, a pulse height of 25 mV, a potential step of 2 mV, and a flow rate of 100 mu L s(-1). For a concentration range between 0.010 and 0.25 mg L(-1), the current (i(p), mu A) read at the potential corresponding to the peak maximum fitted the following linear equation with the paraquat concentration (mg L(-1)): ip = (-20.5 +/- 0.3) Cparaquat -(0.02 +/- 0.03). The limits of detection and quantification were 2.0 and 7.0 mu g L(-1), respectively. The accuracy of the method was evaluated by recovery studies using spiked water samples that were also analyzed by molecular absorption spectrophotometry after reduction of paraquat with sodium dithionite in an alkaline medium. No evidence of statistically significant differences between the two methods was observed at the 95% confidence level.

Nickel hydroxide electrodes as amperometric detectors for carbohydrates in flow injection analysis and liquid chromatography

The present paper describes the utilization of nickel hydroxide modified electrodes toward the catalytic oxidation of carbohydrates (glucose, fructose, lactose and sucrose) and their utilization as electrochemical sensor. The modified electrodes were employed as a detector in flow injection analysis for individual carbohydrate detection, and to an ionic column chromatography system for multi-analyte samples aiming a prior separation step. Kinetic studies were performed on a rotating disk electrode (RDE) in order to determine both the heterogeneous rate constant and number of electrons transferred for each carbohydrate. Many advantages were found for the proposed system including fast and easy handling of the electrode modification, low cost procedure, a wide range of linearity (0.5-50 ppm), low detection limits (ppb level) and high sensitivities. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sequential injection analysis (SIA) and response surface methodology: A versatile small volume approach for optimization of photo-Fenton processes

Optimization of photo-Fenton degradation of copper phthalocyanine blue was achieved by response surface methodology (RSM) constructed with the aid of a sequential injection analysis (SIA) system coupled to a homemade photo-reactor. Highest degradation percentage was obtained at the following conditions [H(2)O(2)]/[phthalocyanine] = 7, [H(2)O(2)]/[FeSO(4)] = 10, pH = 2.5, and stopped flow time in the photo reactor = 30 s. The SIA system was designed to prepare a monosegment containing the reagents and sample, to pump it toward the photo-reactor for the specified time and send the products to a flow-through spectrophotometer for monitoring the color reduction of the dye. Changes in parameters such as reagent molar ratios. residence time and pH were made by modifications in the software commanding the SI system, without the need for physical reconfiguration of reagents around the selection valve. The proposed procedure and system fed the statistical program with degradation data for fast construction of response surface plots. After optimization, 97% of the dye was degraded. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flow injection amperometric determination of hydrogen peroxide in household commercial products with a ruthenium oxide hexacyanoferrate modified electrode

Hydrogen peroxide was determined in oral antiseptic and bleach samples using a flow-injection system with amperometric detection. A glassy carbon electrode modified by electrochemical deposition of ruthenium oxide hexacyanoferrate was used as working electrode and a homemade Ag/AgCl (saturated KCl) electrode and a platinum wire were used as reference and counter electrodes, respectively. The electrocatalytic reduction process allowed the determination of hydrogen peroxide at 0.0 V. A linear relationship between the cathodic peak current and concentration of hydrogen peroxide was obtained in the range 10-5000 mu mol L(-1) with detection and quantification limits of 1.7 (S/N = 3) and 5.9 (S/N = 10) mu mol L(-1), respectively. The repeatability of the method was evaluated using a 500 mu mol L(-1) hydrogen peroxide solution, the value obtained being 1.6% (n = 14). A sampling rate of 112 samples h(-1) was achieved at optimised conditions. The method was employed for the quantification of hydrogen peroxide in two commercial samples and the results were in agreement with those obtained by using a recommended procedure.

Fast batch injection analysis of H(2)O(2) using an array of Pt-modified gold microelectrodes obtained from split electronic chips

A fast and robust analytical method for amperometric determination of hydrogen peroxide (H(2)O(2)) based on batch injection analysis (BIA) on an array of gold microelectrodes modified with platinum is proposed. The gold microelectrode array (n = 14) was obtained from electronic chips developed for surface mounted device technology (SMD), whose size offers advantages to adapt them in batch cells. The effect of the dispensing rate, volume injected, distance between the platinum microelectrodes and the pipette tip, as well as the volume of solution in the cell on the analytical response were evaluated. The method allows the H(2)O(2) amperometric determination in the concentration range from 0.8 mu mol L(-1) to 100 mu mol L(-1). The analytical frequency can attain 300 determinations per hour and the detection limit was estimated in 0.34 mu mol L(-1) (3 sigma). The anodic current peaks obtained after a series of 23 successive injections of 50 mu L of 25 mu mol L(-1) H(2)O(2) showed an RSD < 0.9%. To ensure the good selectivity to detect H(2)O(2), its determination was performed in a differential mode, with selective destruction of the H(2)O(2) with catalase in 10 mmol L(-1) phosphate buffer solution. Practical application of the analytical procedure involved H(2)O(2) determination in rainwater of Sao Paulo City. A comparison of the results obtained by the proposed ampermetric method with another one which combines flow injection analysis (FIA) with spectrophotometric detection showed good agreement. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Applying sequential injection analysis (SIA) and response surface methodology for optimization of Fenton-based processes

This work presents the use of sequential injection analysis (SIA) and the response surface methodology as a tool for optimization of Fenton-based processes. Alizarin red S dye (C.I. 58005) was used as a model compound for the anthraquinones family. whose pigments have a large use in coatings industry. The following factors were considered: [H(2)O(2)]:[Alizarin] and [H(2)O(2)]:[FeSO(4)] ratios and pH. The SIA system was designed to add reagents to the reactor and to perform on-line sampling of the reaction medium, sending the samples to a flow-through spectrophotometer for monitoring the color reduction of the dye. The proposed system fed the statistical program with degradation data for fast construction of response surface plots. After optimization, 99.7% of the dye was degraded and the TOC content was reduced to 35% of the original value. Low reagents consumption and high sampling throughput were the remarkable features of the SIA system. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Development of a spectrophotometric Sequential Injection Analysis (SIA) procedure for determination of ammonium: A Response Surface Methodology (RSM) approach

This paper describes the optimization and use of a Sequential Injection Analysis (SIA) procedure for ammonium determination in waters. Response Surface Methodology (RSM) was used as a tool for optimization of a procedure based on the modified Berthelot reaction. The SIA system was designed to (i) prepare the reaction media by injecting an air-segmented zone containing the reagents in a mixing chamber, (ii) to aspirate the mixture back to the holding coil after homogenization, (iii) drive it to a thermostated reaction coil, where the flow is stopped for a previously established time, and (iv) to pump the mixture toward the detector flow cell for the spectrophotometric measurements. Using a 100 mu mol L(-1) ammonium solution, the following factors were considered for optimization: reaction temperature (25 - 45 degrees C), reaction time (30 - 90 s), hypochlorite concentration (20 - 40 mmol L(-1)) nitroprusside concentration (10 - 40 mmol L(-1)) and salicylate concentration (0.1 - 0.3 mol L(-1)). The proposed system fed the statistical program with absorbance data for fast construction of response surface plots. After optimization of the method, figures of merit were evaluated, as well as the ammonium concentration in some water samples. No evidence of statistical difference was observed in the results obtained by the proposed method in comparison to those obtained by a reference method based on the phenol reaction. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automated two-dimensional separation flow system with electrochemical preconcentration, stripping, capillary electrophoresis and contactless conductivity detection for trace metal ion analysis

This paper describes the automation of a fully electrochemical system for preconcentration, cleanup, separation and detection, comprising the hyphenation of a thin layer electrochemical flow cell with CE coupled with contactless conductivity detection (CE-C(4)D). Traces of heavy metal ions were extracted from the pulsed-flowing sample and accumulated on a glassy carbon working electrode by electroreduction for some minutes. Anodic stripping of the accumulated metals was synchronized with hydrodynamic injection into the capillary. The effect of the angle of the slant polished tip of the CE capillary and its orientation against the working electrode in the electrochemical preconcentration (EPC) flow cell and of the accumulation time were studied, aiming at maximum CE-C(4)D signal enhancement. After 6 min of EPC, enhancement factors close to 50 times were obtained for thallium, lead, cadmium and copper ions, and about 16 for zinc ions. Limits of detection below 25 nmol/L were estimated for all target analytes but zinc. A second separation dimension was added to the CE separation capabilities by staircase scanning of the potentiostatic deposition and/or stripping potentials of metal ions, as implemented with the EPC-CE-C(4)D flow system. A matrix exchange between the deposition and stripping steps, highly valuable for sample cleanup, can be straightforwardly programmed with the multi-pumping flow management system. The automated simultaneous determination of the traces of five accumulable heavy metals together with four non-accumulated alkaline and alkaline earth metals in a single run was demonstrated, to highlight the potentiality of the system.

Evidence for diffusional coupling in electrochemical thin layers: implications for surface coverage calibration via electrochemical infrared spectroscopy

The time dependence of the concentration of CO2 in an electrochemical thin layer cavity is studied with Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) in order to evaluate the extent to which the thin layer cavity is diffusionally decoupled from the surrounding bulk electrolyte. For the model system of CO on Pt(111) in 0.1 M HClO4, it is found that the concentration of CO2, formed by electro-oxidation of CO, equilibrates rapidly with the surrounding bulk electrolyte. This rapid equilibration indicates that there is diffusion out of the thin layer, even on the short time scales of typical infrared experiments (1-3 min). However, since the measured CO2 absorbance intensity as a function of time is reproducible to within 10%, a new time-dependent method for surface coverage calibration using solution-phase species is proposed.

Determination of Minoxidil by Bleaching the Permanganate Carrier Solution in a Flow-Based Spectrophotometric System

The determination of minoxidil (MX) with potassium permanganate as a carrier in a flow injection method is described. The detection at 550nm was linear from 1.0x10-5 to 5.0x10-4mol L-1. The limit of detection (3 sigma/slope) was 8.92x10-6mol L-1, with an analytical frequency of 32h-1. The proposed method was applied to commercial samples, with recoveries from 104.7 to 106.4%. Comparison with the HPLC procedure reveled relative errors from 0.48 to 1.4%, and the results agreed within a 95% confidence level.