955 resultados para Human impacts


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In 2005 we initiated a project designed to better understand tree island structure and function in the Everglades and the wetlands bordering it. Focus was on the raised portions at the upstream end of the islands, where tropical hardwood species adapted to well-drained conditions usually are the most prominent component of the vegetation. The study design is hierarchical, with four levels; in general, a large number of sites is to be surveyed once for a limited set of parameters, and increasingly small sets of islands are to be sampled more intensively, more frequently, and for more aspects of ecosystem function. During the first year of the 3-year study, we completed surveys of 41 Level 1 (i.e., the least intensive level) islands, and established permanent plots in two and three islands of Levels 2 and 4 intensity, respectively. Tree species richness and structural complexity was highest in Shark Slough “hammocks”, while islands in Northeast Shark Slough and Water Conservation Area 3B, which receive heavy human use, were simpler, more park-like communities. Initial monitoring of soil moisture in Level 4 hammocks indicated considerable local variation, presumably associated with antecedent rainfall and current water levels in the adjacent marsh. Tree islands throughout the study area were impacted significantly by Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma in 2005, but appear to be recovering rapidly. As the project continues to include more islands and repeated measurements, we expect to develop a better grasp of tree island dynamics across the Everglades ecosystem, especially with respect to moisture relations and water levels in the adjacent marsh. The detailed progress report which follows is also available online at http://www.fiu.edu/~serp1/projects/treeislands/tree_islands_2005_annual_report.pd

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A large proportion of the variation in traits between individuals can be attributed to variation in the nucleotide sequence of the genome. The most commonly studied traits in human genetics are related to disease and disease susceptibility. Although scientists have identified genetic causes for over 4,000 monogenic diseases, the underlying mechanisms of many highly prevalent multifactorial inheritance disorders such as diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular disease remain largely unknown. Identifying genetic mechanisms for complex traits has been challenging because most of the variants are located outside of protein-coding regions, and determining the effects of such non-coding variants remains difficult. In this dissertation, I evaluate the hypothesis that such non-coding variants contribute to human traits and diseases by altering the regulation of genes rather than the sequence of those genes. I will specifically focus on studies to determine the functional impacts of genetic variation associated with two related complex traits: gestational hyperglycemia and fetal adiposity. At the genomic locus associated with maternal hyperglycemia, we found that genetic variation in regulatory elements altered the expression of the HKDC1 gene. Furthermore, we demonstrated that HKDC1 phosphorylates glucose in vitro and in vivo, thus demonstrating that HKDC1 is a fifth human hexokinase gene. At the fetal-adiposity associated locus, we identified variants that likely alter VEPH1 expression in preadipocytes during differentiation. To make such studies of regulatory variation high-throughput and routine, we developed POP-STARR, a novel high throughput reporter assay that can empirically measure the effects of regulatory variants directly from patient DNA. By combining targeted genome capture technologies with STARR-seq, we assayed thousands of haplotypes from 760 individuals in a single experiment. We subsequently used POP-STARR to identify three key features of regulatory variants: that regulatory variants typically have weak effects on gene expression; that the effects of regulatory variants are often coordinated with respect to disease-risk, suggesting a general mechanism by which the weak effects can together have phenotypic impact; and that nucleotide transversions have larger impacts on enhancer activity than transitions. Together, the findings presented here demonstrate successful strategies for determining the regulatory mechanisms underlying genetic associations with human traits and diseases, and value of doing so for driving novel biological discovery.

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Periods of drought and low streamflow can have profound impacts on both human and natural systems. People depend on a reliable source of water for numerous reasons including potable water supply and to produce economic value through agriculture or energy production. Aquatic ecosystems depend on water in addition to the economic benefits they provide to society through ecosystem services. Given that periods of low streamflow may become more extreme and frequent in the future, it is important to study the factors that control water availability during these times. In the absence of precipitation the slower hydrological response of groundwater systems will play an amplified role in water supply. Understanding the variability of the fraction of streamflow contribution from baseflow or groundwater during periods of drought provides insight into what future water availability may look like and how it can best be managed. The Mills River Basin in North Carolina is chosen as a case-study to test this understanding. First, obtaining a physically meaningful estimation of baseflow from USGS streamflow data via computerized hydrograph analysis techniques is carried out. Then applying a method of time series analysis including wavelet analysis can highlight signals of non-stationarity and evaluate the changes in variance required to better understand the natural variability of baseflow and low flows. In addition to natural variability, human influence must be taken into account in order to accurately assess how the combined system reacts to periods of low flow. Defining a combined demand that consists of both natural and human demand allows us to be more rigorous in assessing the level of sustainable use of a shared resource, in this case water. The analysis of baseflow variability can differ based on regional location and local hydrogeology, but it was found that baseflow varies from multiyear scales such as those associated with ENSO (3.5, 7 years) up to multi decadal time scales, but with most of the contributing variance coming from decadal or multiyear scales. It was also found that the behavior of baseflow and subsequently water availability depends a great deal on overall precipitation, the tracks of hurricanes or tropical storms and associated climate indices, as well as physiography and hydrogeology. Evaluating and utilizing the Duke Combined Hydrology Model (DCHM), reasonably accurate estimates of streamflow during periods of low flow were obtained in part due to the model’s ability to capture subsurface processes. Being able to accurately simulate streamflow levels and subsurface interactions during periods of drought can be very valuable to water suppliers, decision makers, and ultimately impact citizens. Knowledge of future droughts and periods of low flow in addition to tracking customer demand will allow for better management practices on the part of water suppliers such as knowing when they should withdraw more water during a surplus so that the level of stress on the system is minimized when there is not ample water supply.

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Schistosomiasis is a major neglected tropical disease that afflicts more than 240 million people, including many children and young adults, in the tropics and subtropics. The disease is characterized by chronic infections with significant residual morbidity and is of considerable public health importance, with substantial socioeconomic impacts on impoverished communities. Morbidity reduction and eventual elimination through integrated intervention measures are the focuses of current schistosomiasis control programs. Precise diagnosis of schistosome infections, in both mammalian and snail intermediate hosts, will play a pivotal role in achieving these goals. Nevertheless, despite extensive efforts over several decades, the search for sensitive and specific diagnostics for schistosomiasis is ongoing. Here we review the area, paying attention to earlier approaches but emphasizing recent developments in the search for new diagnostics for schistosomiasis with practical applications in the research laboratory, the clinic, and the field. Careful and rigorous validation of these assays and their cost-effectiveness will be needed, however, prior to their adoption in support of policy decisions for national public health programs aimed at the control and elimination of schistosomiasis.

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To further investigate the importance of insulin signaling in the growth, development, sexual maturation and egg production of adult schistosomes, we have focused attention on the insulin receptors (SjIRs) of Schistosoma japonicum, which we have previously cloned and partially characterised. We now show, by Biolayer Interferometry, that human insulin can bind the L1 subdomain (insulin binding domain) of recombinant (r)SjIR1 and rSjIR2 (designated SjLD1 and SjLD2) produced using the Drosophila S2 protein expression system. We have then used RNA interference (RNAi) to knock down the expression of the SjIRs in adult S. japonicum in vitro and show that, in addition to their reduced transcription, the transcript levels of other important downstream genes within the insulin pathway, associated with glucose metabolism and schistosome fecundity, were also impacted substantially. Further, a significant decrease in glucose uptake was observed in the SjIR-knockdown worms compared with luciferase controls. In vaccine/challenge experiments, we found that rSjLD1 and rSjLD2 depressed female growth, intestinal granuloma density and faecal egg production in S. japonicum in mice presented with a low dose challenge infection. These data re-emphasize the potential of the SjIRs as veterinary transmission blocking vaccine candidates against zoonotic schistosomiasis japonica in China and the Philippines.

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Cette thèse examine l’investissement en capital humain au Canada en s’intéressant à la contribution de l’aide financière aux études, aux effets de la fiscalité, à la rentabilité de l’investissement en éducation postsécondaire et à la redistribution des revenus. Elle est subdivisée en cinq chapitres. Le premier chapitre présente une révue chronologique des études microéconomiques sur l’investissement en capital humain. Il présente également une synthèse des études canadiennes sur l’investissement en capital humain en insistant sur les limites portant essentiellement sur la non prise en compte de l’hétérogénéité des systèmes de prêts et bourses et des systèmes fiscaux à travers les provinces canadiennes et la faible analyse de la répartition des coûts et bénéfices de l’investissement en éducation au Canada. Le second chapitre présente la méthodologie de mesure des rendements de l’éducation et des gains issus des investissements en éducation. Il décrit les données utilisées et les résultats des régressions économetriques. Finalement, le chapitre présente SIMAID, un calculateur d’aide financière aux études élaboré pour les objectifs dans cette thèse et qui permet d’estimer le montant de l’aide financière devant être attribuée à chaque étudiant en fonction de ses caractéristiques personnelles et de celles de sa famille. Dans sa première section, le troisième chapitre présente les rendements sociaux, privés et publics de l’éducation et montre que les rendements de l’éducation varient selon les provinces, les filières de formation, le genre et les cohortes d’année de naissance et décroient avec le niveau d’éducation. Dans sa seconde section, le chapitre montre que l’aide financière aux études accroît le rendement des études du baccalauréat de 24.3% et 9.5% respectivement au Québec et en Ontario. Finalement, le chapitre indique qu’un changement du système d’aide financière aux études de Québec par celui de l’Ontario entraîne une baisse de 11.9% du rendement des études au baccalauréat alors qu’un changement du système fiscal québécois par celui ontarien entraine une hausse du rendement du baccalauréat de 4.5%. L’effet combiné du changement des systèmes d’aide financière et fiscal est une baisse du rendement du baccalauréat de 7.4%. Le quatrième chapitre fournit une décomposition comptable détaillée des gains sociaux, privés et publics des investissements en éducation. Le gain social de l’investissement au baccalauréat est de $738 384 au Québec et de $685 437 en Ontario. Ce gain varie selon les filières de formation avec un niveau minimal pour les études humanitaires et un niveau maximal pour les études en ingénierie. Le chapitre montre également que la répartition des bénéfices et des coûts de l’investissement en éducation entre les individus et le gouvernement est plus équitable en Ontario qu’à Québec. En effet, un individu qui investit à Québec supporte 51.6% du coût total et engrange 64.8% des gains alors que le même individu supporterait 62.9% des coûts sociaux et engrangerait 62.2% des gains en Ontario. Finalement, le cinquième chapitre présente et analyse les effets rédistributifs des transferts et des taxes suite à un investissement en éducation. Il examine aussi si l’aide financière aux études est effectivement allouée aux personnes les plus pauvres. L’argument selon lequel l’aide financière est destinée aux plus pauvres est rejeté en analysant la distribution du revenu permanent. En effet, il ressort que 79% des personnes bénéficiant de l’aide financière aux études se trouvent dans le cinquième quintile de la distribution des revenus permanents. Le chapitre montre également que l’investissement en éducation impacte positivement les effets rédistributifs en 2006, 2001 et 1996 et négativement en 1991 et 2011. L’impact est également perceptible sur les composantes de l’effet rédistributif. Toutefois, la sensibilité de l’impact au taux d’actualisation dépend de l’indice utilisé dans l’analyse.

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Jatropha-based biofuels have undergone a rapid boom-and-bust cycle in southern Africa. Despite strong initial support by governments, donors, and the private sector, there is a lack of empirical studies that compare the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of Jatropha’s two dominant modes of production: large plantations and smallholder-based projects. We apply a rapid ecosystem services assessment approach to understand the impact of two Jatropha projects that are still operational despite widespread project collapse across southern Africa: a smallholder-based project (BERL, Malawi) and a large plantation (Niqel, Mozambique). Our study focuses on changes in provisioning ecosystem services such as biofuel feedstock, food, and woodland products that can have important effects on human well-being locally. Qualitative information is provided for other regulating and cultural ecosystem services. Although at this stage no impact is tremendously positive or negative, both projects show some signs of viability and local poverty alleviation potential. However, their long-term sustainability is not guaranteed given low yields, uncertain markets, and some prevailing management practices.

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Les graines de lin sont des oléagineux largement cultivés au Canada. Cependant, les résidus générés suite au processus d’extraction de l’huile contiennent une importante quantité de protéines et peuvent être valorisées dans l’alimentation humaine en raison, principalement, de certaines fractions peptidiques possédant des propriétés bioactives. Dans le cadre de ce travail, l’influence des hautes pressions hydrostatiques (HPH) sur un isolat de protéines de lin a été étudiée concernant les modifications de la structure protéique, l’hydrolyse enzymatique ainsi que l’activité antioxydante des hydrolysats. Ainsi, des solutions protéiques de lin (1% m/v) ont été soumises à un traitement de HPH à 600 MPa pendant 5 et 20 minutes, à 20°C et comparés à des échantillons non-pressurisés. Deux traitements subséquents d’hydrolyse ont été effectués suite au traitement ou non de pressurisation : une première hydrolyse trypsique suivie d’une deuxième par la pronase. Dans un premier temps, la caractérisation de l’isolat protéique de lin pressurisé et non pressurisé a été réalisée par spectrofluorimétrie et par une analyse de la taille des particules afin d’étudier l’effet de la pressurisation sur les HPH la matrice protéique végétale. Par la suite, les hydrolysats protéiques ont été caractérisés par HPLC-MS et leur capacité antioxydante a été déterminée par ORAC. Les résultats ont démontré que le niveau de pressurisation et la durée du traitement ont un impact sur la structure protéique en induisant la dissociation des protéines, et la formation d’agrégats. Ceux-ci seraient occasionnés par la décompression ou créés durant l’entreposage des isolats. Suite à l’hydrolyse enzymatique des solutions protéiques pressurisées ou non par la trypsine seule et par la trypsine-pronase, les analyses chromatographiques ont révélé que la concentration de certains peptides a été modifiée lorsque la trypsine seule était utilisée après un traitement à HPH. Enfin, les HPH ont amélioré la capacité antioxydante des hydrolysats obtenus lors de l’hydrolyse trypsine-pronase comparativement au contrôle non-pressurisé.

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Over the years, degradation of the lakeshore resources has been going on due to human induced activities. Human activities notably house construction, fish smoking, boat construction and cooking at the landings impact the tree and forest cover along the lakeshore and Islands. The survey was conducted in ten districts surrounding Lake Victoria and the landings sampled were selected with the help of the District Fisheries Officers. Data was obtained from selected fishermen and Key informants at these landing sites. The study examined the extent of knowledge on importance, utilization, threats and conservation of trees/forests at the landings. Results showed that the fishers (98%) were aware of the benefits derived from the trees/forests. According to the respondents, the most commonly used tree species for boat construction were Mvule (40%), Mkibu (20%), Musizi (17%) and Mpewere (11 %). This was mainly because these trees were durable. For house construction, Nsambya (25%), Musizi (24%) and other materials (12%) were the most commonly used. For other activities like fish smoking and cooking at the landing, the Fisherfolk used any type of tree species readily available at the landings. As regards the status of the trees at the landings, most of the respondents (72%) J agreed that due to some fishery related activities some tree species had reduced more than others in the vicinity of most landings. Most respondents said that the, most reduced tree species around the landings were Mvule (36%) and Musizi (22%). Among the fishery related activities that had a significant impact on the trees/forests, construction of houses (44%) and boats (22%) emerged uppermost. Other activities such as fish smoking (14%) and cooking (12%) had the least impact on trees/forests. Generally, there was extensive reduction of trees at the landings. Therefore there was need to regulate cutting of trees and to have specific programmes targeting afforestation at and around fish landings.

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Although the value of primary forests for biodiversity conservation is well known, the potential biodiversity and conservation value of regenerating forests remains controversial. Many factors likely contribute to this, including: 1. the variable ages of regenerating forests being studied (often dominated by relatively young regenerating forests); 2. the potential for confounding on-going human disturbance (such as logging and hunting); 3. the relatively low number of multi-taxa studies; 4. the lack of studies that directly compare different historic disturbances within the same location; 5. contrasting patterns from different survey methodologies and the paucity of knowledge on the impacts across different vertical levels of rainforest biodiversity (often due to a lack of suitable methodologies available to assess them). We also know relatively little as to how biodiversity is affected by major current impacts, such as unmarked rainforest roads, which contribute to this degradation of habitat and fragmentation. This thesis explores the potential biodiversity value of regenerating rainforests under the best of scenarios and seeks to understand more about the impact of current human disturbance to biodiversity; data comes from case studies from the Manu and Sumaco Biosphere Reserves in the Western Amazon. Specifically, I compare overall biodiversity and conservation value of a best case regenerating rainforest site with a selection of well-studied primary forest sites and with predicted species lists for the region; including a focus on species of key conservation concern. I then investigate the biodiversity of the same study site in reference to different types of historic anthropogenic disturbance. Following this I investigate the impacts to biodiversity from an unmarked rainforest road. In order to understand more about the differential effects of habitat disturbance on arboreal diversity I directly assess how patterns of butterfly biodiversity vary between three vertical strata. Although assessments within the canopy have been made for birds, invertebrates and bats, very few studies have successfully targeted arboreal mammals. I therefore investigate the potential of camera traps for inventorying arboreal mammal species in comparison with traditional methodologies. Finally, in order to investigate the possibility that different survey methodologies might identify different biodiversity patterns in habitat disturbance assessments, I investigate whether two different but commonly used survey methodologies used to assess amphibians, indicate the same or different responses of amphibian biodiversity to historic habitat change by people. The regenerating rainforest study site contained high levels of species richness; both in terms of alpha diversity found in nearby primary forest areas (87% ±3.5) and in terms of predicted primary forest diversity from the region (83% ±6.7). This included 89% (39 out of 44) of the species of high conservation concern predicted for the Manu region. Faunal species richness in once completely cleared regenerating forest was on average 13% (±9.8) lower than historically selectively logged forest. The presence of the small unmarked road significantly altered levels of faunal biodiversity for three taxa, up to and potentially beyond 350m into the forest interior. Most notably, the impact on biodiversity extended to at least 32% of the whole reserve area. The assessment of butterflies across strata showed that different vertical zones within the same rainforest responded differently in areas with different historic human disturbance. A comparison between forest regenerating after selective logging and forest regenerating after complete clearance, showed that there was a 17% greater reduction in canopy species richness in the historically cleared forest compared with the terrestrial community. Comparing arboreal camera traps with traditional ground-based techniques suggests that camera traps are an effective tool for inventorying secretive arboreal rainforest mammal communities and detect a higher number of cryptic species. Finally, the two survey methodologies used to assess amphibian communities identified contrasting biodiversity patterns in a human modified rainforest; one indicated biodiversity differences between forests with different human disturbance histories, whereas the other suggested no differences between forest disturbance types. Overall, in this thesis I find that the conservation and biodiversity value of regenerating and human disturbed tropical forest can potentially contribute to rainforest biodiversity conservation, particularly in the best of circumstances. I also highlight the importance of utilising appropriate study methodologies that to investigate these three-dimensional habitats, and contribute to the development of methodologies to do so. However, care should be taken when using different survey methodologies, which can provide contrasting biodiversity patterns in response to human disturbance.

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Les produits cosmétiques sont des substances utilisées pour entretenir ou modifier l'aspect des parties superficielles du corps humain (telles que la peau, les ongles ou les cheveux). Dans de nombreux pays d’Afrique et d’Asie et dans certaines communautés africaines immigrantes, plusieurs femmes et parfois des hommes utilisent des produits contenant des agents actifs tels que le mercure, l’hydroquinone et le propionate de clobétasol pour éclaircir leur peau. Ces principaux agents sont toxiques et leur présence dans les cosmétiques est règlementée, voire interdite, dans plusieurs pays. Dans notre étude, nous avons déterminé les concentrations de ces ingrédients dans plusieurs produits utilisés en Afrique de l’Ouest et au Canada. Nous avons également exploré l’effet de ces produits sur le microbiome cutané. Nos résultats révèlent que 68 à 84% des crèmes et 7.5 à 65% des savons dépassent les normes lorsqu’on considère l’interdiction de mercure, d’hydroquinone et de propionate de clobétasol et les concentrations déclarées sur les étiquettes ne sont pas souvent fiables. Selon la diversité de Shannon, il semble y avoir plus d’équitabilité, et donc moins de dominance dans le groupe des femmes utilisant les crèmes éclaircissantes que dans le groupe des femmes qui ne les utilisent pas. Par ailleurs, nous n’avons pas trouvé de différences significatives au niveau du microbiome cutané du groupe avec crèmes et sans crèmes au niveau du phylum et du genre. Cependant, d’autres méthodes plus approfondies avec plus d’échantillonnage pourraient révéler à des échelles plus fines (espèces, souches, etc.) l’effet de ces produits sur le microbiome cutané.

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Les produits cosmétiques sont des substances utilisées pour entretenir ou modifier l'aspect des parties superficielles du corps humain (telles que la peau, les ongles ou les cheveux). Dans de nombreux pays d’Afrique et d’Asie et dans certaines communautés africaines immigrantes, plusieurs femmes et parfois des hommes utilisent des produits contenant des agents actifs tels que le mercure, l’hydroquinone et le propionate de clobétasol pour éclaircir leur peau. Ces principaux agents sont toxiques et leur présence dans les cosmétiques est règlementée, voire interdite, dans plusieurs pays. Dans notre étude, nous avons déterminé les concentrations de ces ingrédients dans plusieurs produits utilisés en Afrique de l’Ouest et au Canada. Nous avons également exploré l’effet de ces produits sur le microbiome cutané. Nos résultats révèlent que 68 à 84% des crèmes et 7.5 à 65% des savons dépassent les normes lorsqu’on considère l’interdiction de mercure, d’hydroquinone et de propionate de clobétasol et les concentrations déclarées sur les étiquettes ne sont pas souvent fiables. Selon la diversité de Shannon, il semble y avoir plus d’équitabilité, et donc moins de dominance dans le groupe des femmes utilisant les crèmes éclaircissantes que dans le groupe des femmes qui ne les utilisent pas. Par ailleurs, nous n’avons pas trouvé de différences significatives au niveau du microbiome cutané du groupe avec crèmes et sans crèmes au niveau du phylum et du genre. Cependant, d’autres méthodes plus approfondies avec plus d’échantillonnage pourraient révéler à des échelles plus fines (espèces, souches, etc.) l’effet de ces produits sur le microbiome cutané.

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The reuse of treated wastewater could be a promising measure to attenuate the water scarcity burden. In agriculture, irrigation with wastewater may contribute to improve production yields, reduce the ecological footprint and promote socioeconomic benefits. However, it cannot be considered exempt of adverse consequences in environmental and human health. Apart from the introduction of some biological and chemical hazardous agents, the disturbance of the indigenous soil microbial communities and, thus, of vital soil functions impacting soil fertility may occur. The consequences of these disturbances are still poorly understood. This chapter summarises the physicochemical and microbiological alterations in soil resultant from irrigation with treated wastewater that are described in scientific literature. These alterations, which involve a high complexity of variables (soil, wastewater, climate, vegetal cover), may have impacts on soil quality and productivity. In addition, possible health risks may arise, in particular through the direct or indirect contamination of the food chain with micropollutants, pathogens or antibiotic resistance determinants. The current state of the art suggests that irrigation with treated wastewater may have a multitude of long-term implications on soil productivity and public health. Although further research is needed, it seems evident that the analysis of risks associated with irrigation with treated wastewater must take into account not only the quality of water, but other aspects as diverse as soil microbiota, soil type or the cultivated plant species.

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Trace Elements (TEs) pollution is a significant environmental concern due to its toxic effects on human and ecosystem health and its potential to bioaccumulate in the food chain and to threaten species survival, leading to a decline in biodiversity. Urban areas, industrial and mining activities, agricultural practices, all contribute to the release of TEs into the environment posing a significant risk to human health and ecosystems. Several techniques have been developed to control TEs into the environment. This work presents the findings of three-year PhD program that focused on research on TEs pollution. The study discusses three fundamental aspects related to this topic from the perspective of sustainable development, environmental and human health. (1) High levels of TEs contamination prevent the use of sewage sludge (SS) as a fertilizer in agriculture, despite its potential as a soil amendment. Developing effective techniques to manage TEs contamination in SS is critical to ensure its safe use in agriculture and promote resource efficiency through sludge reuse. Another purpose of the study was to evaluate different strategies to limit the TEs uptake by horticultural crops (specifically, Cucumis Melo L.). This study addressed the effect of seasonality, Trichoderma inoculation and clinoptilolite application on chromium (Cr), copper (Cu) and lead (Pb) content of early- and late-ripening cultivars of Cucumis Melo L.. Finally, the accumulation of copper and the effect of its bioavailable fraction on bacterial and fungal communities in the rhizosphere soil of two vineyards, featuring two different varieties of Vitis vinifera grown for varying lengths of time, were evaluated.

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This study aimed at evaluating whether human papillomavirus (HPV) groups and E6/E7 mRNA of HPV 16, 18, 31, 33, and 45 are prognostic of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2 outcome in women with a cervical smear showing a low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL). This cohort study included women with biopsy-confirmed CIN 2 who were followed up for 12 months, with cervical smear and colposcopy performed every three months. Women with a negative or low-risk HPV status showed 100% CIN 2 regression. The CIN 2 regression rates at the 12-month follow-up were 69.4% for women with alpha-9 HPV versus 91.7% for other HPV species or HPV-negative status (P < 0.05). For women with HPV 16, the CIN 2 regression rate at the 12-month follow-up was 61.4% versus 89.5% for other HPV types or HPV-negative status (P < 0.05). The CIN 2 regression rate was 68.3% for women who tested positive for HPV E6/E7 mRNA versus 82.0% for the negative results, but this difference was not statistically significant. The expectant management for women with biopsy-confirmed CIN 2 and previous cytological tests showing LSIL exhibited a very high rate of spontaneous regression. HPV 16 is associated with a higher CIN 2 progression rate than other HPV infections. HPV E6/E7 mRNA is not a prognostic marker of the CIN 2 clinical outcome, although this analysis cannot be considered conclusive. Given the small sample size, this study could be considered a pilot for future larger studies on the role of predictive markers of CIN 2 evolution.