Determining the Trustworthiness of New Electronic Contracts

Expressing contractual agreements electronically potentially allows agents to automatically perform functions surrounding contract use: establishment, fulfilment, renegotiation etc. For such automation to be used for real business concerns, there needs to be a high level of trust in the agent-based system. While there has been much research on simulating trust between agents, there are areas where such trust is harder to establish. In particular, contract proposals may come from parties that an agent has had no prior interaction with and, in competitive business-to-business environments, little reputation information may be available. In human practice, trust in a proposed contract is determined in part from the content of the proposal itself, and the similarity of the content to that of prior contracts, executed to varying degrees of success. In this paper, we argue that such analysis is also appropriate in automated systems, and to provide it we need systems to record salient details of prior contract use and algorithms for assessing proposals on their content. We use provenance technology to provide the former and detail algorithms for measuring contract success and similarity for the latter, applying them to an aerospace case study.

Evolutionary Testing of Autonomous Software Agents

A system built in terms of autonomous agents may require even greater correctness assurance than one which is merely reacting to the immediate control of its users. Agents make substantial decisions for themselves, so thorough testing is an important consideration. However, autonomy also makes testing harder; by their nature, autonomous agents may react in different ways to the same inputs over time, because, for instance they have changeable goals and knowledge. For this reason, we argue that testing of autonomous agents requires a procedure that caters for a wide range of test case contexts, and that can search for the most demanding of these test cases, even when they are not apparent to the agents’ developers. In this paper, we address this problem, introducing and evaluating an approach to testing autonomous agents that uses evolutionary optimization to generate demanding test cases.

Defeitos pontuais nos compostos intermetálicos ZrNi e Zr/sub 2/Ni estudados por dinâmica molecular

Empregamos a técnica de Dinâmica Molecular para estudar propriedades de defeitos pontuais nos compostos intermetálicos ZrNi e Zr2Ni. Descrevemos as configurações estáveis de defeitos e mecanismos de migração, assim como as energias envolvidas. Os potenciais interatômicos foram derivados do Embedded Atom Model. No intuito de levar em conta a variação de estequiometria causada pela presença de alguns tipos de defeitos em intermetálicos, apresentamos um método numérico que fornece a energia efetiva de formação de defeitos e aplicamos o método ao ZrNi e Zr2Ni. Os resultados mostraram que vacâncias são mais estáveis na sub—rede do Ni, com energia de formação de 0,83 e-0,61 eV em ZrNi e Zr2Ni, respectivamente. Vacâncias de Zr são instáveis em ambos compostos; elas decaem espontaneamente em pares anti—sítio e vacância de Ni. Configurações e energias de formação de intersticiais também foram calculadas e mostraram comportamentos similares. Em ZrNi, a migração de vacâncias ocorre preferencialmente nas direções [025] e [100], com as respectivas energias de migração 0,67 e 0,73 eV, e é um processo essencialmente bidimensional no plano (001). Em Zr,Ni, a migração de vacâncias é unidimensional, ocorrendo na direção [001], com energia de migração de 0,67 eV. Em ambos compostos a presença de defeitos de anti—sítio de Ni diminui a energia de migração da vacância de Ni em até 3 vezes e facilita a movimentação em três dimensões. Mecanismos de anel não são energeticamente eficientes em comparação com saltos diretos. As configurações estáveis de intersticiais em ambos compostos consistem em um átomo de Ni sobre o plano (001) entre dois vizinhos de Zr fora do plano. Intersticiais de Zr são instáveis e tendem a deslocar um átomo de Ni, ocupando seu sítio. Energias de deslocamento foram estudadas através de simulações de irradiação de ambos compostos. Durante o processo de colisão binária, um potencial universal ZBL foi usado para colisões a curta distância. Para distâncias intermediárias usamos um potencial de união arbitrário. Zr mostrou—se mais difícil de ser arrancado de seu sítio do que Ni. Encontramos valores de energia de deslocamento no intervalo de aproximadamente 29 eV até 546 eV. Alguns resultados experimentais são mostrados e apresentam boa concordância com os cálculos.

Retenção de clientes na renegociação de créditos inadimplentes: um estudo em uma grande instituição financeira brasileira

Este trabalho analisa, sob uma perspectiva quantitativa, a retenção de clientes durante o processo de renegociação de créditos inadimplentes. O foco principal é entender quais são as variáveis que explicam a retenção destes clientes e, portanto, aprimorar o processo de cobrança de uma instituição financeira no Brasil. O tema se torna relevante à medida em que vários fatores tornam a competitividade mais difícil no ambiente de crédito no país: a concentração bancária vivida na última década, o aumento da oferta de crédito nos últimos anos, a redução dos spreads bancários, e por fim a crise econômica global que afeta em especial o setor financeiro. A pesquisa procura investigar quais variáveis melhor explicam o fenômeno da retenção. Para tanto, foram segregados clientes projetados como rentáveis pela cadeia de Markov. Em seguida, testou-se a aderência de variáveis cadastrais e contratuais à variável-resposta retenção, por duas metodologias: o algoritmo CHAID da árvore de decisão e o método stepwise da regressão logística. Os resultados indicam que o método CHAID selecionou 7 e o stepwise 8 variáveis, sendo algumas de natureza cadastral e outras que vêm do próprio contrato de renegociação. Dado que as condições do contrato influenciam a retenção e portanto o valor do cliente, sugere-se que o processo de oferta incorpore operacionalmente a noção de retenção na atividade da cobrança.

Voice over IP 2.0: an analysis of limits and potential of IP2IP telecommunication

Internet Telephony (VoIP) is changing the telecommunication industry. Oftentimes free, VoIP is becoming more and more popular amongst users. Large software companies have entered the market and heavily invest into it. In 2011, for instance, Microsoft bought Skype for 8.5bn USD. This trend increasingly impacts the incumbent telecommunication operators. They see their main source of revenue – classic telephony – under siege and disappear. The thesis at hand develops a most-likely scenario in order to determine how VoIP is evolving further and it predicts, based on a ten-year forecast, the impact it will have on the players in the telecommunication industry.The paper presents a model combining Rogers’ diffusion and Christensen’s innovation research. The model has the goal of explaining the past evolution of VoIP and to isolate the factors that determine the further diffusion of the innovation. Interviews with industry experts serve to assess how the identified factors are evolving.Two propositions are offered. First, VoIP operators are becoming more important in international, corporate, and mobile telephony. End-to-end VoIP (IP2IP) will exhibit strong growth rates and increasingly cannibalize the telephony revenues of the classic operators. Second, fix-net telephony in SMEs and at home will continue to be dominated by the incumbents. Yet, as prices for telephony fall towards zero also they will implement IP2IP in order to save costs. By 2022, up to 90% of the calls will be IP2IP. The author recommends the incumbents and VoIP operators to proactively face the change, to rethink their business strategies, and to even be open for cooperation.

“Eu sou uma pessoa de tremendo sucesso”: representações, identidades e trajetórias de mulheres executivas no Brasil

Apesar de ainda ser pequeno o grupo de mulheres que conseguiu romper o “teto de vidro” e ascender a cargos executivos, a participação feminina em cargos de chefia, nos últimos anos, vem crescendo significativamente no Brasil. Como é um fenômeno relativamente recente, no campo acadêmico tal reflexo ainda não é expressivo e a ausência de uma maior produção sobre o tema dificulta uma compreensão mais ampla sobre as peculiaridades presentes na trajetória dessas mulheres. Diante deste contexto, esta tese tem como principal objetivo refletir sobre as representações que circulam a respeito dessa “nova” mulher trabalhadora e os elementos que compõem a construção de identidades para este grupo. A partir da análise de 52 números da revista Vida Executiva/Mulher Executiva e de 10 entrevistas, baseadas na metodologia de história oral, com mulheres que atuam no mercado de trabalho brasileiro em cargos executivos, busca-se investigar as dificuldades existentes e as estratégias estabelecidas para romper esse “teto de vidro” e construir uma carreira considerada bem sucedida. Para atender a tal propósito, investiga-se a construção de um ethos que facilitou essa ascensão, as formas encontradas de conciliação de uma carreira executiva com a vida pessoal e a família e, as concepções que circulam sobre sucesso, trabalho, carreira, maternidade e arranjos familiares para essas mulheres.

Capitalização do imposto de propriedade no preço de mercado dos imóveis

Esta dissertação estima e discute a capitalização do imposto de propriedade no preço de imóveis, isto é, quanto um aumento de IPTU reduz os preços de imóveis e vice-versa. Por um modelo de diferença em diferenças e algumas tentativas de falseamento, obtiveram-se fortes evidências de capitalização, onde, em média, 100% de variação no imposto altera por volta de 30% o preço dos imóveis. Com isto, políticas de isenção ou redução de IPTU com fins sociais podem ser questionadas, pois dificultariam o acesso à moradia das famílias mais pobres, contribuindo para o processo de favelização. Ao mesmo tempo, maiores patamares do imposto poderiam ser utilizados não somente para elevar as receitas municipais ou como contrapartida ao uso de serviços públicos locais, mas também para tornar os preços dos imóveis mais acessíveis, reduzindo a pobreza e estimulando o crescimento das cidades.

The role of media networks in compensating political biases: evidence from radio networks in Brazil

A central question in political economy is how to incentivize elected socials to allocate resources to those that need them the most. Research has shown that, while electoral incentives lead central governments to transfer fewer funds to non-aligned constituencies, media presence is instrumental in promoting a better allocation of resources. This study evaluates how these two phenomena interact by analyzing the role of media in compensating political biases. In particular, we analyze how media presence, connectivity and ownership affect the distribution of federal drought relief transfers to Brazilian municipalities. We find that municipalities that are not aligned with the federal government have a lower probability of receiving funds conditional on experiencing low precipitation. However, we show that the presence of radio stations compensates for this bias. This effect is driven by municipalities that have radio stations connected to a regional network rather than by the presence of local radio stations. In addition, the effect of network-connected radio stations increases with their network coverage. These findings suggests that the connection of a radio station to a network is important because it increases the salience of disasters, making it harder for the federal government to ignore non-allies. We show that our findings are not explained by the ownership and manipulation of media by politicians.

A trava bancária na recuperação judicial e o seu impacto nas formas de financiamento da empresa: uma análise através da teoria do “common pool assets” de Thomas H. Jackson

O objeto de estudo do presente trabalho é a Trava Bancária, mecanismo jurídico previsto no art. 49, § 3º da Lei de Falências e Recuperação Judicial de Empresas - LRF, por meio do qual dívidas contraídas pelas empresas junto às instituições financeiras são garantidas pela alienação fiduciária dos seus recebíveis. Serão analisadas as peculiaridades desse tipo de garantia fiduciária e, em especial, a prerrogativa que os credores detentores desse tipo de garantia possuem dentro dos procedimento de recuperação judicial de empresas, de não precisarem submeter seus créditos aos procedimentos concursais. Será feita uma análise para demonstrar que a manutenção da trava bancária diminui o valor de going concern da empresa em recuperação, pois a criação de um tipo de credor que é blindado quanto aos efeitos da recuperação judicial impede que essa mantenha-se como um procedimento concursal coletivo e compulsório, requisitos que são essenciais para incentivar os credores da empresa a trabalharem de forma conjunta, mantendo o valor de going concern da empresa recuperanda, com o objetivo de recuperar a empresa e saldarem seus créditos. Tem-se como objetivo demonstrar que, a existência da trava bancária na recuperação judicial, pode afetar negativamente o acesso das empresas ao financiamento por equity. Isto porque, os acionistas das empresas são os últimos da fila de credores a receberem caso a empresa entre em recuperação judicial, e, portanto, acredita-se que, ao saberem que existe um mecanismo que poderá inviabilizar a recuperação judicial das empresas em crise, atrapalhando sua geração de valor de going concern, é possível que investidores desistam de investir em empresas financiadas por dívidas garantidas pela alienação fiduciária de seus recebíveis, passando a ser essa uma variável levada em consideração quando da realização dos procedimentos de valuation para compra de participação acionária em empresas. Os pressupostos teóricos que serão utilizados para embasar a premissa de que a trava bancária gera impacto negativo no valor de going concern das empreas em crise, dificultando seu processo de recuperação, serão extraídos e elaborados a partir da Teoria da Common Pool Assets do autor norte-americano, Thomas H. Jackson. A relevância deste trabalho decorre da importância que o procedimento de recuperação judicial apresenta para as empresas em crise e para os seus credores, bem como a importância que esse tipo de procedimento adquiriu no País. Com efeito, desde a entrada em vigor da LRF no ordenamento jurídico brasileiro em 2005, cerca de 4 mil companhias já pediram recuperação judicial. Além disso, o trabalho mostra-se relevante por abordar questão relativa às formas de financiamento das empresas, assunto que tem reflexo no Custo Brasil e impacto direto no desenvolvimento da economia brasileiro.

Trust-based trade

There is substantially more trade within national borders than across borders. An important explanation for this fact is the weak enforcement of international contracts. We develop a model in which agents build reputations to overcome this institutional failure. The model describes the interplay between institutional quality, reputations and the dynamics of international trade. It also rationalizes several empirical regularities. We find that history matters for trade volumes, but that its effects vary with the institutional setting of the country. The same is true for the efticacy of trade liberalization programs. Moreover, while stricter enforcement of contracts enhances trade in the short run, it makes it harder for individual traders to develop good reputations. We show that this indirect negative effect may produce an "institutional trap": for sufliciently low initial levels of contract enforcement, a small tightening in enforcement reduces future trade fiows. We find also that search frictions aggravate the problems created by weak enforceability of contracts, even if they impose no direct cost on agents. The model allows extensions in several directions. We outline two of them, indicating how one could study transnational networks and the effects of firm heterogeneity within our structure.

Do insurance defrauders want to be punished?

We analyze a Principal-Agent model of an insurer who faces an adverse selection problem. He is unable to observe if his client has a high risk or a low risk of having an accident. At the underwriting of the contract, the insurer requests the client to declare his risk. After that, the former can costly audit the truthfulness of this announcement. If the audit confirms a false declaration, the insurer is legally allowed to punish the defrauder. We characterize the efRcient contracts when this punishment is bounded from above by a legal restriction. Then, we do some comparative statics on the efRcient contracts and on the agent's utility. The most important result of this paper concerns the legal limit to a defrauder's punishment. We prove that there exists a uni que value of this legal limit that maximizes the expected utility of a high risk type. Facing this particular value of the legal limit to a defrauder's punishment, the insurer will effectively audit a low risk reporto We also show that this particular value increases with the probability of facing a high risk policyholder. Therefore, when this probability is sufRciently high, the nullity of the contract is not enough. From the point of view of a potential defrauder, the law should allow harder sanctions. This is an striking result because the nullity of the contract is a common sanction for this kind of fraud in the USA and in some European countries.

Os efeitos macroeconômicos das transferências sociais: uma abordagem de matriz de contabilidade social

Government transfers to individuals and families play a central role in the Brazilian social protection system, accounting for almost 14 per cent of GDP in 2009. While their fiscal and redistributive impacts have been widely studied, the macroeconomic effects of transfers are harder to ascertain. We constructed a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2009 and estimated short-term multipliers for seven different government monetary transfers . The SAM is a double-entry square matrix depicting all income flows in the economy. The data were compiled from the 2009 Brazilian National Accounts and the 2008/2009 POF, a household budget survey. Our SAM was disaggregated into 56 sectors, 110 commodities, 200 household groups and seven factors of production (capital plus six types of labor, according to schooling). Finally, we ran a set of regressions to separate household consumption into ‘autonomous’ (or ‘exogenous’) and ‘endogenous’ components. More specifically, we are interested in the effects of an exogenous injection into each of the seven government transfers outlined above. All the other accounts are thus endogenous. The so-called demand ‘leaks’ are income flows from the endogenous to exogenous accounts. Leaks—such as savings, taxes and imports—are crucial to determine the multiplier effect of an exogenous injection, as they allow the system to go back to equilibrium. The model assumes that supply is perfectly elastic to demand shocks. It assumes that the families’ propensity to save and consumption profile are fixed—that is, rising incomes do not provoke changes in behaviour. The multiplier effects of the on GDP corresponds to the growth in GDP resulting from each additional dollar injected into each transfer seven government transfers. If the government increased Bolsa Família expenditures by 1 per cent of GDP, overall economic activity would grow by 1.78 per cent, the highest effect. The Continuous Cash Benefit, comes second. Only three transfers— the private-sector and public servants’ pensions and FGTS withdrawals—had multipliers lower than unity. The multipliers for other relevant macroeconomic aggregates—household and total consumption, disposable income etc. —reveal a similar pattern. Thus, under the stringent assumptions of our model, we cannot reject the hypothesis that government transfers targeting poor households, such as the Bolsa Família, help foster economic expansion. Naturally, it should be stressed that the multipliers relate marginal injections into government transfers to short-term economic performance either real growth, or inflation if there is no idle capacity which is also useful to analyze. In the long term, there is no doubt that what truly matters is the growth of the country’s productive capacity.

Organizations redesign and building of information systems

Develop software is still a risky business. After 60 years of experience, this community is still not able to consistently build Information Systems (IS) for organizations with predictable quality, within previously agreed budget and time constraints. Although software is changeable we are still unable to cope with the amount and complexity of change that organizations demand for their IS. To improve results, developers followed two alternatives: Frameworks that increase productivity but constrain the flexibility of possible solutions; Agile ways of developing software that keep flexibility with less upfront commitments. With strict frameworks, specific hacks have to be put in place to get around the framework construction options. In time this leads to inconsistent architectures that are harder to maintain due to incomplete documentation and human resources turnover. The main goals of this work is to create a new way to develop flexible IS for organizations, using web technologies, in a faster, better and cheaper way that is more suited to handle organizational change. To do so we propose an adaptive object model that uses a new ontology for data and action with strict normalizing rules. These rules should bound the effects of changes that can be better tested and therefore corrected. Interfaces are built with templates of resources that can be reused and extended in a flexible way. The “state of the world” for each IS is determined by all production and coordination acts that agents performed over time, even those performed by external systems. When bugs are found during maintenance, their past cascading effects can be checked through simulation, re-running the log of transaction acts over time and checking results with previous records. This work implements a prototype with part of the proposed system in order to have a preliminary assessment its feasibility and limitations.

Fatores de longevidade do programa Central do Cidadão no Rio Grande do Norte

The public management reform in Brazil, since 1995, provoked new experiences in public administration. Among the new models of public service the one-stop shopping has distinguished and was adopted at Rio Grande do Norte with the Citizens Center Program. The one-stop shopping assembles in the same place many public services with appropriate structure, enabled human resources and citizens focus processes. The goal of this research was understand how citizens focus processes help to explain Citizens Center Program s longevity. It was made a case study and the research tools were applied with Citizen Center Programs workers and citizen-users at South Unit of Citizen Center Program placed at Via Direta Mall, Natal. The major contributions for Citizen Center Program s longevity were imputed to Basic Operation Processes. The most spoken features in Citizen Center Program mentioned were quality, efficiency, celerity e personal appearance, what demonstrate concern and care with citizen-users. Worker s personal appearance, accommodation, celerity, politeness and attending capacity planning were high evaluated by citizen-users revealing the wisely choice of use a large quality concept and citizenship concept in public administration. Citizen-users also pointed the necessity of refine and enlarge the communication ways that form an essential mechanism to public citizen focus administration. Not ignoring the policy aspect citizen focus processes were noticed like especial management actions that make easier citizen s activities and public service access, what generate satisfaction to citizen-users. It s possible to conclude that the high level approving evaluation of Citizen Center Program consolidates it an especial public policy that serves citizen s necessities e create appropriate legitimacy conditions of the public policy making harder the choice of ending the policy even in more fragile moments strongly contributing for its longevity

Nitretação em plasma com gaiola catódica: investigação do mecanismo e estudo comparativo com a nitretação em plasma de tensão contínua

The ionic plasma nitriding is one of the most important plasma assisted treatment technique for surface modification, but it presents some inherent problems mainly in nitriding pieces with complex geometries. In the last four years has appeared a plasma nitriding technique, named ASPN (Active Screen Plasma Nitriding) in which the samples and the workload are surrounded by a metal screen on which the cathodic potential is applied. This new technique makes possible to obtain a perfect uniform nitrided layer apart from the shape of the samples. The present work is based on the development of a new nitriding plasma technique named CCPN (Cathodic Cage Plasma Nitriding) Patent PI 0603213-3 derived from ASPN, but utilizes the hollow cathode effect to increase the nitriding process efficiency. That technique has shown great improvement on the treatment of several types of steels under different process conditions, producing thicker and harder layers when compared with both, ASPN and ionic plasma nitriding, besides eliminating problems associated with the later technique. The best obtained results are due to the hollow cathode effect on the cage holes. Moreover, characteristic problems of ionic plasma nitriding are eliminated due to the fact that the luminescent discharge acts on the cage wall instead of on the samples surface, which remains under a floating potential. In this work the enhancement of the cathodic cage nitriding layers proprieties, under several conditions for some types of steels was investigated, besides the mechanism for nitrides deposition on glass substrate, concluding that the CCPN is both a diffusion and a deposition process at the same time