Civil war and foreign influence

We study a symmetric information bargaining model of civil war where a third (foreign) party can affect the probabilities of winning the conflict and the size of the post conflict spoils. We show that the possible alliance with a third party makes peaceful agreements difficult to reach and might lead to new commitment problems that trigger war. Also, we argue that the foreign party is likely to induce persistent informational asymmetries which might explain long lasting civil wars. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are confirmed for the case of the U.S. as a potential intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates.

Seasonal analysis of the number of aeropiles in Anocentor nitens (Neumann, 1897) (Acari: Ixodidae) from the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Variation between aeropile numbers of the right and left peritrematic plate in male and female Anocentor nitens (Neumann, 1897) is reported from a site in Brazil. From January to December 1998, 146 males and 247 females of A. nitens were recovered from Equus caballus L. in Silva Jardim District, State of Rio de Janeiro. Asymmetry of numbers of aeropiles between right and left plates occurred in 83.6% of the males and 82.2% of the females. Differences in the number of aeropiles between the sexes were not significant. Quantitative variation of aeropiles was correlated to the period of recovery, with significant asymmetry detected in August-September and November-December, mainly in males. Results suggest an adaptation, especially in the male ticks, that expresses itself as greater variation in the number of aeropiles in some periods of the year.

A follow up study of cytomegalovirus infection in a group of Turkish renal transplant recipients using molecular assays

The clinical value of an in-house cytomegalovirus nested polymerase chain reaction (CMV-PCR) and a commercial molecular assay hybrid capture CMV DNA assay (HCA) was evaluated in monitoring a group of renal transplant patients for six months follow up. In this study, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of nested CMV DNA PCR assay and HCA at the beginning of the study were 70, 42.9, 46.7, 66.7, and 60, 78.6, 66.7, and 73.3% respectively. After six months, they were 80, 66.7, 80, 66.7 for CMV PCR and 73.3, 88.9, 91.7, 66.7% for HCA respectively. These results indicate that in monitoring and predicting CMV infections in renal transplant recipients, not only qualitative but also quantitative assays must be used together in order to decide the preemptive strategies.

War and Natural Resource Exploitation

We build a theoretical framework that allows for endogenous conflict behaviour (i.e., fighting efforts) and for endogenous natural resource exploitation (i.e., speed, ownership, and investments). While depletion is spread in a balanced Hotelling fashion during peace, the presence of conflict creates incentives for rapacious extraction, as this lowers the stakes of future contest. This voracious extraction depresses total oil revenue, especially if world oil demand is relatively elastic and the government's weapon advantage is weak. Some of these political distortions can be overcome by bribing rebels or by government investment in weapons. The shadow of conflict can also make less efficient nationalized oil extraction more attractive than private extraction, as insecure property rights create a holdup problem for the private firm and lead to a lower license fee. Furthermore, the government fights less intensely than the rebels under private exploitation, which leads to more government turnover. Without credible commitment to future fighting efforts, private oil depletion is only lucrative if the government's non-oil office rents are large and weaponry powerful, which guarantees the government a stronger grip on office and makes the holdup problem less severe.

Habitatges privats a la Vila de Gràcia: característiques i evolució entre 1870 i 1897

Evolució dels habitatges privats en els darrers 27 anys de la Vila de Gràcia independent.

Violence and displacement. Evidence from the Spanish civil war (1936-1939)

This paper explores the relationship between violence and displacement during civil war focusing on two different forms of population movements (i.e. incoming and outgoing), and two different forms of violence (i.e. direct and indirect). The paper explores the relationship between displacement and violence at the local level in the context of a civil war fought conventionally using fine-grained data from 1,062 municipalities of the region of Catalonia during the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939). First, the paper suggests that exogenous and endogenous to the war factors combine to generate patterns of resettlement. Second, the evidence indicates that, in acivil war context, refugee flows and violence are interrelated in multiple ways: the arrival of internal refugees in a locality promotes the perpetration of direct violence against civilians; this, in turn, triggers the departure of people from the locality when the other group approaches. Third, indirect violence (i.e. bombings) shows to be the most significant factor accounting for external displacement at the local level, suggesting that bombing can serve as a strong signal for civilians of the type of armed group they are facing. Finally, the Spanish case suggests that the demographic changes provoked by displacement, combined with the lethality of the conflict, are likely to have long-term political consequences.

The Decision on Turkish EU accession in December 2002: The logic of anarchy, collective action problems and rhetorical action

Studies of the EU accession of the East and Central European Countries have stressed the importance of neo-liberal institutionalism as an explanation for Member State preferences. In this paper it is argued that Member States’ preferences over Turkish EU accession are better explained by power politics and neo-realism. It seems therefore that Turkey’s way to the EU follows another path than the East and Central Countries. Turkish accession raises the question of the EU’s role in a uni-polar world order – whether the EU should develop into an independent actor on the world stage or not. However, when it comes to the interaction among the Member States in order to decide on when to open accession negotiations with Turkey the constitutive values of the EU seriously modify the outcome that pure power politics would have let to.