Métodos probabilísticos e estatísticos na gestão de fogos florestais

Tese de doutoramento, Estatística e Investigação Operacional (Probabilidades e Estatística), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2014

Sistemas de automação e manutenção de edifícios: concepção dos sistemas de detecção e protecção contra incêndios de uma unidade industrial

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

Segurança contra incêndio em edifícios no núcleo histórico de Ponta Delgada : acessibilidade, estado de conservação dos edifícios e disponibilidade de água para o combate a incêndios

Dissertação de Mestrado em Ambiente, Saúde e Segurança.

On sampling collection procedure effectiveness for forest soil characterization

One of the most important measures to prevent wild forest fires is the use of prescribed and controlled burning actions as it reduce the fuel mass availability. The impact of these management activities on soil physical and chemical properties varies according to the type of both soil and vegetation. Decisions in forest management plans are often based on the results obtained from soil-monitoring campaigns. Those campaigns are often man-labor intensive and expensive. In this paper we have successfully used the multivariate statistical technique Robust Principal Analysis Compounds (ROBPCA) to investigate on the sampling procedure effectiveness for two different methodologies, in order to reflect on the possibility of simplifying and reduce the sampling collection process and its auxiliary laboratory analysis work towards a cost-effective and competent forest soil characterization.

Space-time monitoring of prescribed burnt soils performance – an effective tool for forest management

Among the most important measures to prevent wild forest fires is the use of prescribed and controlled burning actions in order to reduce the availability of fuel mass. However, the impact of these activities on soil physical and chemical properties varies according to the type of both soil and vegetation and is not fully understood. Therefore, soil monitoring campaigns are often used to measure these impacts. In this paper we have successfully used three statistical data treatments - the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test followed by the ANOVA and the Kruskall-Wallis tests – to investigate the variability among the soil pH, soil moisture, soil organic matter and soil iron variables for different monitoring times and sampling procedures.

Study on the changes of soil chemical characteristics as result of prescribed fire

Every year, particularly during the summer period, the Portuguese forests are devastated by forest fire that destroys their ecosystems. So in order to prevent these forest fires, public and private authorities frequently use methods for the reduction of combustible mass as the prescribed fire and the mechanical vegetation pruning. All of these methods of prevention of forest fires alter the vegetation layer and/or soil [1-2]. This work aimed the study of the variation of some chemical characteristics of soil that suffered prescribed fire. The studied an area was located in the Serra of Cabreira (Figure 1) with 54.6 ha. Twenty sampling points were randomly selected and samples were collected with a shovel before, just after the prescribed fire, and 125 and 196 days after that event. The parameters that were studied were: pH, soil moisture, organic matter and iron, magnesium and potassium total concentration. All the analysis followed International Standard Methodologies. This work allowed to conclude that: a) after the prescribed fire; i) the pH remained practically equal to the the initial value; ii) occurred a slight increase of the average of the organic matter contents and iron total contents; b) at the end of the sampling period compared to the initial values; i) the pH didn´t change significantly; ii) the average of the contents of organic matter decreased; and iii) the average of the total contents of Fe, Mg and K increased.

Acquisition and data analysis related to changes in some forest soils properties after prescribed fire action

Controlled fires in forest areas are frequently used in most Mediterranean countries as a preventive technique to avoid severe wildfires in summer season. In Portugal, this forest management method of fuel mass availability is also used and has shown to be beneficial as annual statistical reports confirm that the decrease of wildfires occurrence have a direct relationship with the controlled fire practice. However prescribed fire can have serious side effects in some forest soil properties. This work shows the changes that occurred in some forest soils properties after a prescribed fire action. The experiments were carried out in soil cover over a natural site of Andaluzitic schist, in Gramelas, Caminha, Portugal, that had not been burn for four years. The composed soil samples were collected from five plots at three different layers (0-3cm, 3-6cm and 6-18cm) during a three-year monitoring period after the prescribed burning. Principal Component Analysis was used to reach the presented conclusions.

Forest soil short term response to prescribed fire: an approach by Principal Components Analysis

In the current context of serious climate changes, where the increase of the frequency of some extreme events occurrence can enhance the rate of periods prone to high intensity forest fires, the National Forest Authority often implements, in several Portuguese forest areas, a regular set of measures in order to control the amount of fuel mass availability (PNDFCI, 2008). In the present work we’ll present a preliminary analysis concerning the assessment of the consequences given by the implementation of prescribed fire measures to control the amount of fuel mass in soil recovery, in particular in terms of its water retention capacity, its organic matter content, pH and content of iron. This work is included in a larger study (Meira-Castro, 2009(a); Meira-Castro, 2009(b)). According to the established praxis on the data collection, embodied in multidimensional matrices of n columns (variables in analysis) by p lines (sampled areas at different depths), and also considering the quantitative data nature present in this study, we’ve chosen a methodological approach that considers the multivariate statistical analysis, in particular, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA ) (Góis, 2004). The experiments were carried out in a soil cover over a natural site of Andaluzitic schist, in Gramelas, Caminha, NW Portugal, who was able to maintain itself intact from prescribed burnings from four years and was submit to prescribed fire in March 2008. The soils samples were collected from five different plots at six different time periods. The methodological option that was adopted have allowed us to identify the most relevant relational structures inside the n variables, the p samples and in two sets at the same time (Garcia-Pereira, 1990). Consequently, and in addition to the traditional outputs produced from the PCA, we have analyzed the influence of both sampling depths and geomorphological environments in the behavior of all variables involved.

Educating for earthquake science and risk in a tectonically slowly deforming region

Over the past decade, scientists have been called to participate more actively in public education and outreach (E&O). This is particularly true in fields of significant societal impact, such as earthquake science. Local earthquake risk culture plays a role in the way that the public engages in educational efforts. In this article, we describe an adapted E&O program for earthquake science and risk. The program is tailored for a region of slow tectonic deformation, where large earthquakes are extreme events that occur with long return periods. The adapted program has two main goals: (1) to increase the awareness and preparedness of the population to earthquake and related risks (tsunami, liquefaction, fires, etc.), and (2) to increase the quality of earthquake science education, so as to attract talented students to geosciences. Our integrated program relies on activities tuned for different population groups who have different interests and abilities, namely young children, teenagers, young adults, and professionals.

A Review on the Characterization of Signals and Systems by Power Law Distributions

Power laws, also known as Pareto-like laws or Zipf-like laws, are commonly used to explain a variety of real world distinct phenomena, often described merely by the produced signals. In this paper, we study twelve cases, namely worldwide technological accidents, the annual revenue of America׳s largest private companies, the number of inhabitants in America׳s largest cities, the magnitude of earthquakes with minimum moment magnitude equal to 4, the total burned area in forest fires occurred in Portugal, the net worth of the richer people in America, the frequency of occurrence of words in the novel Ulysses, by James Joyce, the total number of deaths in worldwide terrorist attacks, the number of linking root domains of the top internet domains, the number of linking root domains of the top internet pages, the total number of human victims of tornadoes occurred in the U.S., and the number of inhabitants in the 60 most populated countries. The results demonstrate the emergence of statistical characteristics, very close to a power law behavior. Furthermore, the parametric characterization reveals complex relationships present at higher level of description.

Fire effects on soil after an experimental burnt

5th International Conference of Fire Effects on Soil Properties

Verificação e Acompanhamento em Obra das Medidas de Segurança Contra Incêndios em Edifícios

A Segurança Contra Incêndios em Edifícios representa uma parte importante nos projetos de engenharia, uma vez que tem de ser analisada e implementada desde o início da construção. O principal objetivo é oferecer confiança aos utilizadores dos edifícios, aos seus bens e sistemas, sempre de acordo com a lei. Em qualquer tipo de edifício é iminente a capacidade de, por diversos motivos e circunstâncias, se iniciar um incêndio. O que se pretende com toda a regulamentação e matéria sobre a Segurança Contra Incêndios em Edifícios é a aplicação de sistemas de deteção, prevenção e extinção de incêndios, conseguindo, deste modo, reduzir os seus efeitos negativos. Este relatório de estágio apresenta, de um modo geral, a importância da Segurança Contra Incêndios em Edifícios atualmente nas construções, quais as principais regras neste âmbito, bem como a apresentação de todos os equipamentos e sistemas que fazem parte dos sistemas de SCIE. O presente relatório culmina com a vertente prática que consiste na descrição de casos acompanhados durante os meses de estágio, vistorias efetuadas e ensaios de incêndio. Os fenómenos inerentes a um alarme de incêndio serão descritos e comprovados em situações reais de simulação.

Segurança Contra Incêndio em Unidade Industrial de Tintas

Um incêndio corresponde a fogo de grandes dimensões sem controlo, que mata e destrói o que atravessa o seu caminho, é um fogo que lavra e devora. Neste sentido, há muitos anos que são impostas leis e medidas preventivas e de controlo dos incêndios, cada vez mais exigentes, de modo a tentar evitar catástrofes, como as que infelizmente também fazem parte da história de Portugal. A proteção contra incêndio procura garantir a proteção das pessoas, dos bens e do ambiente, implicando a atuação em áreas muito distintas. O relatório de estágio aqui apresentado é o resultado de um estágio curricular realizado num gabinete de estudos e projetos de engenharia civil. Este estágio inseriu-se na unidade curricular de DIPRE, com duração de seis meses, durante os quais foi desenvolvido um projeto de segurança contra incêndio numa unidade industrial de tintas, de grandes dimensões. Será descrita a legislação aplicável ao caso de estudo, apresentado o projeto de segurança contra incêndio, bem como as peças desenhadas onde constam todas as exigências impostas pela legislação.

The utility of sedimentary diatoms as a measure of historical lake ph

As a result of increased acid precipitation, the pH of a large number of Canadian Shield lakes has been falling. Prior to this study there was no documentation available to explain the history of lake acidification for the Algoma area lakes. In order to obtain this information the diatom inferred pH technique was developed in this study. During two field seasons, July 1981 and July 1982, short sediment cores (circa 25-30 cm) were collected from 28 study lakes located north of Lake Superior, District Algoma, Ontario. The surface sediment diatoms (0-1 cm) from each of these lakes were carefully identified, enumerated, and classified in terms of their pH indicator status. The surface sediment diatom analysis indicated that lake pH is one of the most important factors affecting the species composition and relative abundance of diatom populations. Thus diatom assemblages can be sensitive indicators of lake acidification. When Nygaard's index alpha was plotted against observed lake pH, a statistically significant relationship resulted (r=-0.89; p=fires. A significant relationship between surface sediment diatoms and observed lake pH and secondly a statistically significant relationship between index alpha and observed pH suggested that diatoms are one of the best indicators of lake pH. Thus diatom inferred pH technique has great potential in explaining the rate of lake acidification.

Estimation des décès attribuables aux PM2.5 issues des feux de la forêt boréale du Nord du Québec

Il est bien établi que l'exposition à court terme aux particules fines dans l’air ambiant en milieu urbain a des effets sur la santé. Toutefois, peu d'études épidémiologiques ont évalué la relation entre les particules fines (PM2.5) de sources spécifiques comme celles dérivées de feux de forêt et les effets sur la santé. Pour l’instant, les risques de mortalité et de morbidité associés aux PM2.5 résultant de la combustion de végétation semblent similaires à ceux des PM2.5 urbaines. Dans le présent mémoire, nous avons comparé deux méthodes pour quantifier les risques de mortalité et de morbidité associés à l'augmentation des niveaux de PM2.5 à Montréal, dérivées de deux épisodes des feux de forêts majeurs dans le Nord du Québec. La première approche consistait à comparer les décès et les visites aux urgences observées enregistrées au cours des deux épisodes à Montréal à leurs moyennes respectives attendues durant des jours de référence. Nous avons également calculé la surmortalité et la surmorbidité prédites attribuables aux PM2.5 lors des épisodes, en projetant les risques relatifs (RR) rapportés par l’Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) des États-Unis pour les PM2.5 urbaines, ainsi qu’en appliquant des fonctions de risque estimées à partir des données estivales spécifiques à Montréal. Suivant la première approche, nous avons estimé une surmortalité de +10% pendant les deux épisodes. Cependant, aucune tendance claire n'a été observée pour les visites à l'urgence. Et suivant la 2e approche, la surmortalité prédite attribuable aux niveaux des PM2.5 dérivées des feux de forêt étaient moins élevés que ceux observés, soit de 1 à 4 cas seulement. Une faible surmortalité attribuable aux niveaux élevés des PM2.5 issues de feux de la forêt boréale du Québec a été estimée par les fonctions de risque ainsi que par la méthode de comparaison des décès observés aux moyennes attendues, sur l’Île de Montréal, située à des centaines de km des sites de feux.